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PoliGAF 2016 |OT12| The last days of the Republic

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B

Bonen no Max'd

Banned
Cybit said:
2) The GOP actually coalesces around a candidate immediately rather than falls prey to game theory by having too many candidates sitting around too long. This is a function of poor RNC leadership and not getting someone who can sort of bully others around (they expected the Bushes to do this, instead of doing it themselves). If it comes down to Trump vs one other GOP candidate - Trump loses. Especially that if you coalesce around a candidate, Christie doesn't take out Rubio, and if you do it fast enough, Trump maybe doesn't take out Bush - but we're going down the counter-factual rabbit hole at that point.
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This is a really good point! In the Whistlestop episode about Howard Dean, Dickerson brings up that after the Gore endorsement, the DNC immediately took Dean seriously and had Dick Gephard relentlessly attack Dean. Dickerson mentions that in the murder-suicide strategy, having a candidate in a multi-man race explicitly attack a single other candidate usually sinks both of them.

I think there's a decent chance that the RNC is prepared enough in 2020 to try and immediately sink any serious challenger to their preferred pick. Tightening the entrance requirements would be a good first step, as well as trying to just choke out the fundraising for any candidate less electable than Kasich.
 
M

mstevens

Member
He's trying to piss off the media so that they are even more "unfair" to him so he can push his "honest" news network after the election.
 
J

Joeytj

Banned
Officerrob said:
Regardless, a 20% drop considering the circumstances and the parties involved in pretty surprising
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Hillary really only needed to win "bigly" the first debate, she knew that.

The third debate will be even more boring, although I hope Hill does well again, duh.
 
S

Sianos

Member
Randolph Freelander said:
Donald Trump continues to show his level of esteem for American democracy.



Cub1CifXYCgS8z3.jpg
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Well gee Mr. Donald, if these "other communities" of which you speak have more people than the single "community" that is left standing with you, what could you possibly do to still win the election...?

[Implications: obvious]

He's absolutely and irrevocably disgusting.
 
C

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
phisheep said:
What puzzles me is why the RNC let him run in the primaries at all. Did he threaten to go third party against them or something?
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Didn't take him seriously enough, to be honest.

BlastProcessing said:
I just don't see how the GOP doesn't make those mistakes all over again in 2020. Even after this failure I don't think there will be enough pain to force them to change anything. They still dominate state politics and I am not sure they would do anything to endanger that.

I think that Trump is the tip of the iceberg. 2020 will be worse.
My prediction is Curt Schilling.
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State politics has nothing to do with it. The state politics are so locked in and so local that changing national primary rules will affect them zero. They have nothing to lose and everything to gain, and they most certainly will change the rules so a Trump like character can't hijack the party again. The GOP has generally let the candidates deal with these in the past (Santorum, for instance) - but the party will be more aggressive about it in the future.
 
K

Kusagari

Member
Manmademan said:
I disagree here. they are ABSOLUTELY changing rules up to prevent Trump II: electric boogaloo from happening.

They changed them up after Ron Paul caused more problems for them than he was worth. You think after this disaster they don't alter rules to stop Trump from happening again?

moving to increase superdelegates, reduce WTA states, or both would get them there and the process to do so is trivial.

edit: the assumption that "more debates with more candidates" would also get them more media exposure was also a likely result of Trump getting as far as he did. Those werent debates at all, that was 14 people trying desperately to get a soundbite in that would stick for the next media cycle.

in a more traditional format, Trump flames out- we've seen how awful he is in a 1 on 1 situation with clinton.
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And what if the deplorables candidate gets the majority of the votes? The GOP is scared shitless of upsetting these people; they cannot win without them. If they deny the candidate with the most votes the nomination through superdelegates it will be open revolt.
 
S

studyguy

Member
I don't think anyone would be surprised if next election RNC fucking murderers their candidate pool to whittle it down to as few mayo bland conservatives as possible.
 
F

Fragamemnon

Member
BenjaminBirdie said:
This right here, baby.

This is why is why there won't be another GOP president in our lifetimes.
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Cruz or Jeb would have put together a modern field and analytics operation. It might not have been as good as Clinton's, but it would have been serviceable and certainly better than the "what's that?" Trump approach.
 
S

Sianos

Member
mstevens said:
He's trying to piss off the media so that they are even more "unfair" to him so he can push his "honest" news network after the election.
Click to expand...
Bingo. This why he also kept whining about the moderators as much as he could, even timing Hillary's answers so he could cry about twenty-five seconds instead of thinking about his own.
 
B

BenjaminBirdie

Banned
Fragamemnon said:
Cruz or Jeb would have put together a modern field and analytics operation. It might not have been as good as Clinton's, but it would have been serviceable and certainly better than the "what's that?" Trump approach.
Click to expand...

I guess we'll see. GOP is certainly doing a great job reaching out to young intelligent forward thinking sciency types.
 
phisheep

phisheep

NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
Cybit said:
Didn't take him seriously enough, to be honest.
Click to expand...

Well that's their problem right there, they opened the door to the burglar. Other than putting a chain on that door I don't see there's anything else they need to do to fiddle with the primaries, as anyone in the race will be a known quantity.

Or, as Trump might put it, before they let a candidate in, some of whom might be good people, they need some extreme vetting.
 
J

jmdajr

Member
mstevens said:
He's trying to piss off the media so that they are even more "unfair" to him so he can push his "honest" news network after the election.
Click to expand...

This guy is gonna get black listed so hard a Trump network supported by crazies will be his only way to make money after this shit show is done.
 
P

PantherLotus

Professional Schmuck
Cybit said:
See...that's not true. Three big decisions helped Trump win this nomination - I think people forget that Trump won with under 50% of the GOP primary voters voting for him before everyone else dropped out.

1) If the GOP used the primary nomination rules the Democrats did, Trump probably isn't the nominee (as it goes to a contested convention, where his lack of ground game would have done him in to Cruz).

2) The GOP actually coalesces around a candidate immediately rather than falls prey to game theory by having too many candidates sitting around too long. This is a function of poor RNC leadership and not getting someone who can sort of bully others around (they expected the Bushes to do this, instead of doing it themselves). If it comes down to Trump vs one other GOP candidate - Trump loses. Especially that if you coalesce around a candidate, Christie doesn't take out Rubio, and if you do it fast enough, Trump maybe doesn't take out Bush - but we're going down the counter-factual rabbit hole at that point.

3) The GOP decides to try to take out Trump initially instead of focusing on Cruz. (Once again, falls on GOP leadership, primarily the RNC). People forgot that the GOP leadership went after Cruz for months before realizing that Trump was a legitimate threat.

Any / all of those things would have probably ended Trump's candidacy.
Click to expand...

no argument about this election gets past the bolded fantasy, which is my point. there is nobody to the right of Hillary that could unite those camps. NOBODY. There is nobody! Trump is going to be historically catastrophic, but there just isn't a conservative alive that unites these people at this point.

Challenge: name the factions of the GOP and one candidate that unites them without a significant portion staying home.

-- Breitbart / White Nationalists
-- FoxNews / Old People / Suburban Moms / NASCAR Dads
-- Fucking Libertarians / Racists that want to smoke weed
-- Evangelicals / The 'softer bigotry' of bible thumpers and anti-science nutjobs
-- Gun Nuts / separatists

Yes they all bleed into eachother, some more than others, but nothing unites them on a national scale under one cohesive policy approach ... or candidate who could espouse such a platform. That's why the house can be as red as it is but there's nobody that could appeal to all of them.

So please everyone get out of here with this nonsense that this was a winnable election. Closer maybe. But if you want to say it's winnable you have to prove that Candidate X could unite Obvious Factions That Hates Them. I just don't see it.
 
S

Slackerish

Member
Marc E. Elias
‏@marceelias
BREAKING: Florida Federal Court Extends Registration Deadline to Wednesday at 5pm due to hurricane. PI hearing is Wednesday.
 
S

studyguy

Member
SexyFish said:
Judge orders FL Voter registration extension.
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Extension?
In my day we braved a snowstorm, drought and a hurricane walking uphill 15mi both ways to pay our poll tax and guess how many marbles were in a bucket in order to register for voting. And we liked it.
 
Z

Zackat

Member
sturgboski said:
OK MSNBC at one of the watch parties with undecided millennials one girl basically says it's like chosing the best of the worst or something to that affect. Girl next her shut that shit down immediately saying it's not even close, that if you do any looking Hillary is the way better candidate that, while she wishes it was Bernie, she's voting for Hillary. First girl looked thrown off for having her bullshit logic shutdown.
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I would like to see a video of this.
 
R

rjinaz

Member
The guy on CNN just said it's been estimated that 40% of people will vote before November 8th. If true Trump is even more dead than before.
 
B

BlastProcessing

Member
Manmademan said:
I disagree here. they are ABSOLUTELY changing rules up to prevent Trump II: electric boogaloo from happening.

They changed them up after Ron Paul caused more problems for them than he was worth. You think after this disaster they don't alter rules to stop Trump from happening again?

moving to increase superdelegates, reduce WTA states, or both would get them there and the process to do so is trivial.

edit: the assumption that "more debates with more candidates" would also get them more media exposure was also a likely result of Trump getting as far as he did. Those werent debates at all, that was 14 people trying desperately to get a soundbite in that would stick for the next media cycle.

in a more traditional format, Trump flames out- we've seen how awful he is in a 1 on 1 situation with clinton.
Click to expand...

Superdelegates are a poison pill. If you ever have to use them to overturn the will of your voters then you will destroy your base. Reducing WTA states wouldn't keep another Trump from winning, hell it would encourage the field to stay in and create more chaos for another Trump to thrive in. To thin the field quicker, in those debates, you would need to add more WTA states earlier.

Either way, it's not about the rules, the changes they need to make involve rejecting parts of their own base. You have to excise them out of the party. And the truth is that it's that same group of people that gives the GOP it's current advantage in midterms and state elections.

They can't get off Mr. Bone's Wild Ride.
 
S

Slacker

Member
phisheep said:
What puzzles me is why the RNC let him run in the primaries at all. Did he threaten to go third party against them or something?
Click to expand...

They know without the racist assholes that support him they can't win in November. They relied on the political skills of their other 16 candidates to beat him without alienating his followers. Sadly the 16 combined have the political skills of a dead Harambe.
 
C

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
phisheep said:
Well that's their problem right there, they opened the door to the burglar. Other than putting a chain on that door I don't see there's anything else they need to do to fiddle with the primaries, as anyone in the race will be a known quantity.

Or, as Trump might put it, before they let a candidate in, some of whom might be good people, they need some extreme vetting.
Click to expand...

Heh. They also don't want Cruz to be the nominee, so they might have some changes to hose him.

BenjaminBirdie said:
This right here, baby.

This is why is why there won't be another GOP president in our lifetimes.
Click to expand...

It would take the GOP about 2 election cycles, maybe 3, to catch up to the Dem Analytics machine. The GOP has access to some unbelievable talent once they decide to put their minds to it. Heck, even the data operation Cruz had for the primary was...really good. (Cruz, through his wife, has some prodigy-level talent to choose from). Do not think for a second they could not get caught up dramatically if they are willing to spend on it. They ju.st didn't believe in it, but I think after 2012 and after 2016, that will change.
 
B

Bowdz

Member
Goddamn at how fast this thread moved! I spent the entire day working out at the gym and trying to hurriedly catch up in between sets.

The NBC poll is glorious and all of the reports of Senate races imploding is amazing. I can't even fathom the damage the next oppo dump will do.
 
B

Basileus777

Member
Cybit said:
Heh. They also don't want Cruz to be the nominee, so they might have some changes to hose him.
Click to expand...

The structure was already built to hose regional evangelical candidates like Cruz. Without Trump all of those WTA or winner-take-most blue states would have buried Cruz. They just didn't see a Trump white nationalist coming that would make those blue states his center of strength. It will be incredibly hard to build a system that hurts both the Cruz type candidates and the Trump type. I'm not sure they can thread that needle.
 
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