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[smokeandmirrors]

Here's what they're not telling you:

How many young people actually have a landline? And if they do, where do they live?

Land....line??? What's that.

Spoiler

lol how can you ignore such an egregious sampling error like that Jesus.

 

[kirblar]

Land....line??? What's that.

Spoiler

lol how can you ignore such an egregious sampling error like that Jesus.

Spoiler

when you're a partisan outfit designed to create exactly the narrative that erupted in this thread.

 

[AlphaDump]

Haven't seen anything on gaf, but cspan radio has the following hearing going on

On C-SPAN3 today at 10:00am (ET)

Jeh Johnson: Russia Orchestrated Election Cyberattacks, Didn't Change Tally Outcomes

Download C-SPAN Radio
iOS: http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/c-span-radio/id322447301?ls=1&mt=8
Android: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.jacobsmedia.CSpan

Interesting stuff.

 

[Plinko]

I think it's important to point out that Hillary had a high favorable rating 3 years before the election which is right when the evil cultist started their mudslinging. We cannot underestimate how effective those assholes truly are at damaging a candidate in a short amount of time.

They were mudslinging Hillary and the Clintons for decades. The reason she had a positive rating is that she wasn't running for president.

 

[The Technomancer]

Basically every European country has as much or more blood on their hands with racism and slavery. The UK, France, Belgium, etc. invaded countries, enslaved the populace, sold millions of them around the world, impressed them into colonies (black people aren't native to Brazil or the Caribbean), etc.

To the extent the US is unique that's down to the fact that it couldn't just wash its hands of the wreckage this caused like the Europeans could. Even then the US isn't unique because Brazil has a history of slavery going until 1888, and huge issues of racism and race-based inequality. To say the US is exclusively villainous in this respect just shows how deeply ignorant you are of anything outside your county.

Setting aside a comparison of the specific horrors of US plantation slavery none of those other nations
A. Literally fought a civil war between members of the majority population to end it
B. Had to the deal with 15% of it's population that had been previously enslaved suddenly becoming citizens in the same geographical and political space as the people who had just enslaved them

 

[Trumplestiltskin]

Those countries are all homogenous. None of them have minority population %s at the level the US does. (and yet many are still freaking out at low population %s!)

So what you're saying is European invasion and enslavement of foreign countries is "rental racism" but the US is a unique stew of hatred? On a moral level, just because the French dumped their victims in Haiti, Africa and elsewhere I don't think they got off clean.

Moreover, even if you're going to go that route, like I said Brazil's portion of African decendants is much larger than America's. It was the last country in the Americas to abolish slavery, it imported 10x the number of slaves the US did. To say the US is the only country on Earth with deeply rooted racism is insane!

 

[royalan]

Basically every European country has as much or more blood on their hands with racism and slavery. The UK, France, Belgium, etc. invaded countries, enslaved the populace, sold millions of them around the world, impressed them into colonies (black people aren't native to Brazil or the Caribbean), etc.

To the extent the US is unique that's down to the fact that it couldn't just wash its hands of the wreckage this caused like the Europeans could. Even then the US isn't unique because Brazil has a history of slavery going until 1888, and huge issues of racism and race-based inequality. To say the US is exclusively villainous in this respect just shows how deeply ignorant you are of anything outside your county.

I don't think anybody in this thread does not know this.

But the US is a relatively young country that got its start by murdering the indigenous peoples of this land, followed by a few hundred years of legalized slavery, and a few more generations of legalized discrimination. And what compounds this problem is that the US has by and large chosen to ignore this history, to the point that there still exists potent triggers to activate this racist history and mobilize voters based on it.

This is the core of the Southern Strategy.

This is why "Make America Great Again" was so terrifyingly effective.

 

[The Technomancer]

So what you're saying is European invasion and enslavement of foreign countries is "rental racism" but the US is a unique stew of hatred? On a moral level, just because the French dumped their victims in Haiti, Africa and elsewhere I don't think they got off clean.

Moreover, even if you're going to go that route, like I said Brazil's portion of African decendants is much larger than America's. It was the last country in the Americas to abolish slavery, it imported 10x the number of slaves the US did. To say the US is the only country on Earth with deeply rooted racism is insane!

Again Europe didn't literally have those slaves join their population. Brazil is the closest comparison, yes. How's politics looking there these days?

 

[Plumbob]

So Handel won.

Thst means GOP will proceed with their agenda.

That means AHCA will be signed into law.

Many people will lose their health insurance. All because of one district in Georgia.

 

[Roland_Gunner]

Here's what they're not telling you:

How many young people actually have a landline? And if they do, where do they live?

I know more people under the age of 50 with Laserdisc players (2) than landlines (0).

 

[kirblar]

So what you're saying is European invasion and enslavement of foreign countries is "rental racism" but the US is a unique stew of hatred? On a moral level, just because the French dumped their victims in Haiti, Africa and elsewhere I don't think they got off clean.

Moreover, even if you're going to go that route, like I said Brazil's portion of African decendants is much larger than America's. It was the last country in the Americas to abolish slavery, it imported 10x the number of slaves the US did. To say the US is the only country on Earth with deeply rooted racism is insane!

Yes, having 1/8th of your population be black w/ racist, segrationist laws designed to make them a permanent underclass is very different than having military-controlled colonies abroad.

We don't talk about Brazil because Brazil isn't a majority-white western country!

 

[Diablos]

So Handel won.

Thst means GOP will proceed with their agenda.

That means AHCA will be signed into law.

Many people will lose their health insurance. All because of one district in Georgia.

If she lost then Trump would be advocating for Medicaid buy in for all 50 states

Just give up fam

 

[balladofwindfishes]

So Handel won.

Thst means GOP will proceed with their agenda.

That means AHCA will be signed into law.

Many people will lose their health insurance. All because of one district in Georgia.

Nah, I think people were putting way too much faith that the race would effect the AHCA. It wouldn't change anything. If it passes, it would have passed whether Ossoff won or not.

People wanted something to latch onto as a definitive way to stop the AHCA, so they decided this race was that.

More so than this race, I think the CBO estimate next week is what will do serious harm to the senate bill. How is McConnell going to get the votes he needs in the middle of a media storm of 30 million people losing insurance?

 

[Dierce]

They were mudslinging Hillary and the Clintons for decades. The reason she had a positive rating is that she wasn't running for president.

That might be so but I don't think those old attacks were effective. The email crap is what undid everything.

 

[BoogieWoogie]

I didn't really mention it when I said I went canvassing for Ossoff, but it always seemed like a lost cause. The people who were against Ossoff that I met were SO against him, like foaming at the mouth practically.

We had one person say to my wife: "If one more person knocks on my door for Ossoff, I'm not voting for him." That's what the Dems are fighting against, this bullshit apathy and it's really REALLY tough.

 

[Trumplestiltskin]

Yes, having 1/8th of your population be black w/ racist, segrationist laws designed to make them a permanent underclass is very different than having military-controlled colonies abroad.

We don't talk about Brazil because Brazil isn't a majority-white western country!

The thread I quoted literally started with "no nation on Earth has a history with race quite like the US". Now it's down to "white-majority, western country with atleast 10% of the population being of a minority group that was legally discriminated against". Nice goal post-moving.

No, the US is not a uniquely racist country. It has some severe problems, but don't discount the severe problems that occur in other heterogeneous countries, or for that matter homogeneous ones when they come into contact with another group.

 

[Blader]

Ossoff winning or losing has absolutely no impact on AHCA.

I really can't stress this enough: shame and public pressure are no longer part of the GOP's calculus on healthcare. The bill is already extremely unpopular and they're pushing ahead with it anyway. Given that, it seems pretty clear that the need to vote on a healthcare bill is outweighing any other consideration right now.

 

[kirblar]

The thread I quoted literally started with "no nation on Earth has a history with race quite like the US". Now it's down to "white-majority, western country with atleast 10% of the population being of a minority group that was legally discriminated against". Nice goal post-moving.

No, the US is not a uniquely racist country. It has some severe problems, but don't discount the severe problems that occur in other heterogeneous countries, or for that matter homogeneous ones when they come into contact with another group.

When we are comparing western democracies to western democracies, no other country has a history like the USes. There's no goalposts moving on my end.

 

[The Technomancer]

The thread I quoted literally started with "no nation on Earth has a history with race quite like the US". Now it's down to "white-majority, western country with atleast 10% of the population being of a minority group that was legally discriminated against". Nice goal post-moving.

No, the US is not a uniquely racist country. It has some severe problems, but don't discount the severe problems that occur in other heterogeneous countries, or for that matter homogeneous ones when they come into contact with another group.

Uh that's not goal post moving. All those factors contribute to the uniqueness of it's history

 

[Dierce]

Ossoff winning or losing has absolutely no impact on AHCA.

I really can't stress this enough: shame and public pressure are no longer part of the GOP's calculus on healthcare. The bill is already extremely unpopular and they're pushing ahead with it anyway. Given that, it seems pretty clear that the need to vote on a healthcare bill is outweighing any other consideration right now.

I would be seriously depressed if after all that they still retain control of congress in 2018. I'm not sure what else we can do then except wait for the inevitable economic collapse.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Now it's down to "white-majority, western country with atleast 10% of the population being of a minority group that was legally discriminated against".

Which incidentally would also include New Zealand, off the top of my head.

 

[Bonen no Max'd]

I think it's important to point out that Hillary had a high favorable rating 3 years before the election which is right when the evil cultist started their mudslinging. We cannot underestimate how effective those assholes truly are at damaging a candidate in a short amount of time.

...evil cultist?

 

[BoogieWoogie]

I would be seriously depressed if after all that they still retain control of congress in 2018. I'm not sure what else we can do then except wait for the inevitable economic collapse.

The economic collapse will be further away than we think as all the stock market sees is the boot slowly crushing workers' throats which means the Dow goes up, up, up!

 

[Blader]

I would be seriously depressed if after all that they still retain control of congress in 2018. I'm not sure what else we can do then except wait for the inevitable economic collapse.

I really can't get any further depressed about elections than I was in November lol

Here's what I think are the likeliest scenarios to happen in 2018:

1. Rs hold the House, but Dems make double-digit gains; Rs hold the Senate, I don't know what the split is though.

2. Dems retake the House; Rs hold the Senate, but Dems flip Nevada.

3. Dems retake the House AND Senate.

4. Somehow, Dems retake the Senate but are unable to flip the House. This scenario doesn't really make sense to me, so it is last.

 

[Diablos]

tbh the Ossoff race kind of shines a light on many things that are wrong with our politics and how people obsess over things too much. I am glad it is over, hopefully Democrats learn what they can from the data and mistakes that were made (on the plus side they really closed the gap in an affluent white district in a special election for starters) but it's time to move on. This means very little for 2018. What means more is Democrats figuring out how to compete and get to a place where they can run the table in 2018 against a very controversial, corrupt and unpopular Pres and his mafia party.

It's one fucking seat in the US House that ultimately changes NOTHING regardless of who would have won...
I mean, shit, if he came that close in a special election when many people are still turned off by politics after a disgusting Presidential election then I honestly think it still bodes well for the midterms when a LOT more people are paying attention.

and also this being to date the most expensive race in history for one seat is just absurd. Just speaks volumes to how we continue to go down a dark spiral politically and it's so entrenched that it is basically all but fully integrated into our society and economy as well

 

[Pixieking]

I would be seriously depressed if after all that they still retain control of congress in 2018. I'm not sure what else we can do then except wait for the inevitable economic collapse.

This assumes the economic collapse doesn't hit before the midterms. Retail alone is going to have a lot of job losses in the next 9 months, I think, and that may be what sends the wider economy into a tailspin.

 

[The Technomancer]

Flip this on its head: which white majority nation enslaved upwards of 10-15% of its population before engaging in a literal civil war between factions of the majority group that resulted in said enslaved population being introduced into the main population?

 

[BoogieWoogie]

This assumes the economic collapse doesn't hit before the midterms. Retail alone is going to have a lot of job losses in the next 9 months, I think, and that may be what sends the wider economy into a tailspin.

The stock market is literally ignoring everything in favor of Trump. Remember when he was planning on getting rid of NAFTA? They didn't move at all.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

The stock market is literally ignoring everything in favor of Trump. Remember when he was planning on getting rid of NAFTA? They didn't move at all.

The stock market is not the economy.

 

[Pixieking]

The stock market is literally ignoring everything in favor of Trump. Remember when he was planning on getting rid of NAFTA? They didn't move at all.

Wall Street isn't the be-all-and-end-all. When average Joes lose jobs before or after Christmas, they'll feel the pinch and spend less, which'll send aftershocks through retail... Which'll push more stores and malls closer to the brink.

 

[Plinko]

The stock market is not the economy.

This needs to be shouted from the mountaintops. The stock market primarily benefits the rich.

 

[Valhelm]

The thread I quoted literally started with "no nation on Earth has a history with race quite like the US". Now it's down to "white-majority, western country with atleast 10% of the population being of a minority group that was legally discriminated against". Nice goal post-moving.

No, the US is not a uniquely racist country. It has some severe problems, but don't discount the severe problems that occur in other heterogeneous countries, or for that matter homogeneous ones when they come into contact with another group.

The US isn't necessarily more racist than Britain or France, but racism in America manifests itself very differently. While I disagree with Royalan that racism in America means certain policies can never be pursued, left-wing candidates absolutely need different messaging and different priorities than Corbyn or Melenchon.

White supremacy is unique in America only because its victims actually live here, and have always lived here.

 

[Diablos]

lol stock market news is like money porn for rich people

if you talk to anyone who is reasonable and not a snob who has a lot in the stock market they really do not give a fuck about the CNBC-esque hyperventilating that you always see when that crowd is doing their thing

 

[pigeon]

tbh the Ossoff race kind of shines a light on many things that are wrong with our politics and how people obsess over things too much. I am glad it is over, hopefully Democrats learn what they can from the data and mistakes that were made (on the plus side they really closed the gap in an affluent white district in a special election for starters) but it's time to move on. This means very little for 2018. What means more is Democrats figuring out how to compete and get to a place where they can run the table in 2018 against a very controversial, corrupt and unpopular Pres and his mafia party.

It's one fucking seat in the US House that ultimately changes NOTHING regardless of who would have won...
I mean, shit, if he came that close in a special election when many people are still turned off by politics after a disgusting Presidential election then I honestly think it still bodes well for the midterms when a LOT more people are paying attention.

and also this being to date the most expensive race in history for one seat is just absurd. Just speaks volumes to how we continue to go down a dark spiral politically and it's so entrenched that it is basically all but fully integrated into our society and economy as well

This is literally the best post in this thread. Diablos is the most reasonable and clear-minded poster in PoliGAF.

 

[royalan]

The US isn't necessarily more racist than Britain or France, but racism in America manifests itself very differently. While I disagree with Royalan that racism in America means certain policies can never be pursued, left-wing candidates absolutely need different messaging and different priorities than Corbyn or Melenchon.

White supremacy is unique in America only because its victims actually live here, and have always lived here.

Never said that guys.

There needs to be more tangible rationalization than "look at the UK."

 

[NeoXChaos]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/877533841421987840

Nate Silver‏Verified account
@NateSilver538
By the way, Democrats were dumb not to put more resources into South Carolina 5, which elected a Dem to the House as recently as 2008.

Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 1h1 hour ago
Would "nationalizing the race" have hurt Parnell in SC-5? Maybe. But the midterms will be nationalized & Dems need to compete broadly.

Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 1h1 hour ago
Half the problem is that Dems believe in the same stupid narratives that the media does. R's don't give a shit and complete everywhere.

 

[Kevinroc]

https://twitter.com/chrislhayes/status/877548330355752960

Last night was a perfect illustration of why R's are plunging ahead with ACA repeal even thought it's wildly unpopular. 1/x

I think R's have been much quicker to understand the contours of extreme polarization in this era than D's have. 2/x

The bet the GOP is placing is that the engine of politics is fundamentally, cultural resentment of Those People. The Other Team. 3/x

And that power of that overcomes other forms of political gravity. So you have the signature domestic policy initiative wildly unpopular 4/x

So unpopular R's in contested special elections won't defend or talk about it (Gianforte, Handel) but it doesn't really matter. 5/x

The bet is that cultural resentment + Bottomless supply of SuperPAC dollars + geography/gerrymandering are enough to govern from 6/x

And the policies, and what they do to people's lives, is an afterthought. It's a high stakes bet, but they may very well be right. 6/6

 

[whyamihere]

tbh the Ossoff race kind of shines a light on many things that are wrong with our politics and how people obsess over things too much. I am glad it is over, hopefully Democrats learn what they can from the data and mistakes that were made (on the plus side they really closed the gap in an affluent white district in a special election for starters) but it's time to move on. This means very little for 2018. What means more is Democrats figuring out how to compete and get to a place where they can run the table in 2018 against a very controversial, corrupt and unpopular Pres and his mafia party.

It's one fucking seat in the US House that ultimately changes NOTHING regardless of who would have won...
I mean, shit, if he came that close in a special election when many people are still turned off by politics after a disgusting Presidential election then I honestly think it still bodes well for the midterms when a LOT more people are paying attention.

and also this being to date the most expensive race in history for one seat is just absurd. Just speaks volumes to how we continue to go down a dark spiral politically and it's so entrenched that it is basically all but fully integrated into our society and economy as well

This... is all correct

 

[Ogodei]

The stock market is literally ignoring everything in favor of Trump. Remember when he was planning on getting rid of NAFTA? They didn't move at all.

They're waiting for their tax cuts, that's all they care about, policy-wise. If we hit a point where it becomes more clear that the tax cuts aren't going to happen, you'll see a one-day 3% contraction or so.

https://twitter.com/chrislhayes/status/877548330355752960

The problem with this strategy is that tripling down on Demographics only helps you until 2022 elections.

Plus ignoring that the unpopular policies haven't taken effect yet.

 

[Carpe Libertatem]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/877533841421987840

Sounds like one of the reasons for not getting involved with SC-05 was Parnell's background as a Goldman Sachs executive

But yeah, they should've done something more there.

 

[Aaron Strife]

DCCC doing some damage control, they released a memo indicating Democrats are winning 17 GOP-held districts in internal polling, tied in 3 and behind by a point in 4 more. Some were tested against Generic Democrat, but others were tested against prominent opponents.

Always take a grain of salt (or a heaping bag's worth) with internals, but I thought I'd share.

FL-27 (OPEN) +18
CA-21 (Valadao) +11
CA-10 (Denham) +9
CA-49 (Issa) +9
CO-6 (Coffman) +8
FL-18 (Mast) +7
AZ-2 (McSally) +7
FL-26 (Curbelo) +7
IL-13 (Davis) +6
KS-3 (Yoder) +6
MN-3 (Paulsen) +5
CA-25 (McKnight) +4
NJ-7 (Lance) +4
IL-6 (Roskam) +3
PA-8 (Fitzpatrick) +3
NY-19 (Faso) +2
PA-7 (Meehan) +1

CA-45 (Walters) +0
MN-2 (Lewis) +0
NJ-11 (Frelinghuysen) +0

CA-48 (Rohrabacher) -1
NJ-3 (MacArthur) -1
NY-24 (Tenney) -1
VA-10 (Comstock) -1
~~~we win the House~~~
IL-12 (Bost) -1
NJ-2 (LoBiondo) -2
VA-2 (Rigell) -3
WA-8 (Reichert) -3
NY-21 (Stefanik) -4
MI-11 (Trott) -6

Link: http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015c-cb32-dce0-a9ff-ff3b99080012

 

[pigeon]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/877533841421987840

I agree with this also, although it's what I've been saying so it's more like Nate agrees with me.

Here's a genuine take: it's weird that people can look at the last two years and think they know anything about politics.

Anybody can win anywhere. The biggest mistake the Democrats keep making is saying "this race is winnable and this race isn't." Money has strong diminishing returns. When you open an IRA you don't put all your money in Facebook because Facebook is a "good stock." You spread it out across the whole market. That's exactly what the Democrats aren't doing.

Just run a candidate in every district and for every office, send them like $10,000 each and tell them all to talk about social justice and good healthcare. Some will lose, but lots of them will win, and they won't have to normalize white supremacy or sell out women's rights to do it.

 

[whyamihere]

I agree with this also, although it's what I've been saying so it's more like Nate agrees with me.

Here's a genuine take: it's weird that people can look at the last two years and think they know anything about politics.

Anybody can win anywhere. The biggest mistake the Democrats keep making is saying "this race is winnable and this race isn't." Money has strong diminishing returns. When you open an IRA you don't put all your money in Facebook because Facebook is a "good stock." You spread it out across the whole market. That's exactly what the Democrats aren't doing.

Just run a candidate in every district and for every office, send them like $10,000 each and tell them all to talk about social justice and good healthcare. Some will lose, but lots of them will win, and they won't have to normalize white supremacy or sell out women's rights to do it.

This is Good Content.

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

This needs to be shouted from the mountaintops. The stock market primarily benefits the rich.

Not only is the Stock Market not the economy, but the DJII is not the stock market.

Psychologically, it's similar to review aggregates. People like "a number" they can point to.

 

[Bonen no Max'd]

CO-6 (Coffman) +8

Finally, a veteran named Jason looks like they'll actually win.

Also if Faso is vulnerable I hope Teachout runs again.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

I agree with this also, although it's what I've been saying so it's more like Nate agrees with me.

Here's a genuine take: it's weird that people can look at the last two years and think they know anything about politics.

Anybody can win anywhere. The biggest mistake the Democrats keep making is saying "this race is winnable and this race isn't." Money has strong diminishing returns. When you open an IRA you don't put all your money in Facebook because Facebook is a "good stock." You spread it out across the whole market. That's exactly what the Democrats aren't doing.

Just run a candidate in every district and for every office, send them like $10,000 each and tell them all to talk about social justice and good healthcare. Some will lose, but lots of them will win, and they won't have to normalize white supremacy or sell out women's rights to do it.

Why not just let them run their race how they see it and represent the voters of their district and/or state? Don't tell them to talk about anything, let them do it themselves.

I don't see national Republicans telling Charlie Baker to go out and deny climate change.

 

[B-Dubs]

I agree with this also, although it's what I've been saying so it's more like Nate agrees with me.

Here's a genuine take: it's weird that people can look at the last two years and think they know anything about politics.

Anybody can win anywhere. The biggest mistake the Democrats keep making is saying "this race is winnable and this race isn't." Money has strong diminishing returns. When you open an IRA you don't put all your money in Facebook because Facebook is a "good stock." You spread it out across the whole market. That's exactly what the Democrats aren't doing.

Just run a candidate in every district and for every office, send them like $10,000 each and tell them all to talk about social justice and good healthcare. Some will lose, but lots of them will win, and they won't have to normalize white supremacy or sell out women's rights to do it.

Yup.

Why not just let them run their race how they see it and represent the voters of their district and/or state?

I don't see national Republicans telling Charlie Baker to go out and deny climate change.

There's giving someone room to be themselves and run their own campaign and then there's letting your party platform mean nothing.

 

[Gattsu25]

.

 

[Hooligan69]

This is a post from a friend of a friend on FB, that gives me a bit of hope:

"This is from a friend in Georgia - it helps put the defeat in perspective

For all my friends outside of Georgia who are wondering today how a Republican won in District 6, it's important to understand what a challenge this was. Less than a year ago many Democrats and liberals in the north Atlanta suburbs were "closeted" (and some still are). It was assumed in many social circles and workplaces in this area that if you were white, educated, owned a home, had a good job, etc, that you voted Republican. It was scary to rock the boat and admit that you were not a part of that. Some worried that it could hurt their career, their relationships with neighbors, or their social standing to be "outed" as a liberal.

Conservatism runs very deep here, and it's tied up in race, socio-economics, religion, and so much more. Even though I have always been open about my political beliefs on FB, there have been many times in the last 10 years of living in Cobb County that I tried to keep my politics under the radar in real-life situations.

This race (and somewhat the 2016 pres race) changed that in a big way. There is now a vocal and visible liberal presence in the north Atlanta suburbs, and it's growing. There are now people willing to canvas and volunteer for Democratic campaigns, and there are even more people willing to run as Democrats in state and local races, many of which previously went to Republicans unchallenged. Even though we didn't #flipthe6th, we have made tremendous progress."

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Ossoff kept talking about deficit reduction. WHY.

I predict GOP's 2018 strategy to be about Pelosi and showing the specter and fear of a Pelosi led house.