whyamihere
Banned
I would say that if Bernie, Biden, or Warren run, that fundamentally changes things for everyone else.
But also, it's 2017.
PoliGAF 2017 |OT5| The Man In the High Chair
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I would say that if Bernie, Biden, or Warren run, that fundamentally changes things for everyone else.
But also, it's 2017.
Basileus777
Member
Chris Christie was the opposition frontrunner at this point last cycle.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Isn't this what people were saying about Obama, though?
Box of Kittens
Banned
Obama delivered a very well received keynote address at the 2004 convention. I don't have numbers in front of me but my guess is he had a bigger profile at this time in 2005 than Harris has now.
ArkhamFantasy
Member
Remember when Scott Walker won that 700 bajillion dollar sweepstakes then suspended his campaign shortly after? LOL
Basileus777
Member
Obama had a higher profile and had already made himself famous during Kerry's convention. And that was Obama, the first black man with a shot at the oval office and a campaigner of the like that doesn't come around all that often.
VendettaRed07
Member
I meant that I believe given how the last primary plaid out I think a lot of the "far left" potential voters were not represented because many supported Hillary out of fear of trump or thinking Bernie was an unnecessary risk. Not that Booker is more "electable", but that whatever votes he gains based on being more charasmatic will likely be negated by a large portion of people who will likely not be thinking that a far left candidate is "risky" because if Trump can so can my candidate etc
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Ah, that's right.
I still have my doubts about Harris, but I'm ready for this to play out naturally. Her directly dealing with these attacks effectively would go a long way in raising her chances.
Speaking of Gillibrand she withdrew her sponsorship yesterday of that Israel/BDS bill that turned into a mess. I'm having trouble finding a regular source but it's popping up in a lot of places. (I'm not sure which foreign sources are reliable)
People knew Obama was a rising star/future candidate but the (very bad) CW was that he'd be in the wings a while and wouldn't challenge Clinton. She was the presumed frontrunner leading into '08. What people missed was that you obviously can't wait 8-12 years to run for President. You have to take your shot. This is the reason the "dig underground" strategy works - you dodge a lot of attacks that would otherwise be sent your way and can brand yourself rather than having the GOP do it for you.
People knew Obama was a rising star/future candidate but the (very bad) CW was that he'd be in the wings a while and wouldn't challenge Clinton. She was the presumed frontrunner leading into '08. What people missed was that you obviously can't wait 8-12 years to run for President. You have to take your shot. This is the reason the "dig underground" strategy works - you dodge a lot of attacks that would otherwise be sent your way and can brand yourself rather than having the GOP do it for you.
Obama was the frontrunner in 2005? I think John Edwards and Hillary to a lesser extent were given that mantle that early.
whyamihere
Banned
Cross-post, but:
The New Hampshire congressional delegation are pretty fucking pissed. And rightfully so.
Nothing from Carol Shea-Porter but she also really doesn't tweet.
The New Hampshire congressional delegation are pretty fucking pissed. And rightfully so.
Nothing from Carol Shea-Porter but she also really doesn't tweet.
Aaron Strife
Banned
RIP PD
Biden will never, ever be president. He's Hillary Clinton if she were a dude and didn't have to try as hard. The Democratic Party had three opportunities to show they loved Joe Biden and they passed each time.
This is Biden truthery. Jet fuel can't melt plagiarized personal anecdotes.
This is Biden truthery. Jet fuel can't melt plagiarized personal anecdotes.
nature boy
Member
.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
In this political climate where a huge portion of voters are sexist, Biden would absolutely be president. Comparing him to Clinton and saying he would lose is ignoring many important factors.
cartoon_soldier
Member
What vote?
The point is that Biden and Bernie are the only two widely-known possible 2020 contenders (meaning people other than politics nerds or folks from their home state know their names).
Far more visibility than the more likely front-runners, imo Gillibrand, Franken, and Harris in that order (despite whatever Franken says about not wanting to run), with Booker, Cuomo, Castro, and Brown in a second tier.
whyamihere
Banned
It's for a federal judge. Calm down guys.
Box of Kittens
Banned
My recollection is that everybody assumed Clinton would run in 2008 and that the main reason she didn't run in 2004 was a desire not to take on an incumbent. At some point the conversation on Obama shifted from "he's waiting for 2012/2016" or "he would make a good VP pick" to "will he or won't he?" Edwards was also definitely seen as a contender, and he was even my preferred candidate in early 2005 (when I assumed Obama wouldn't run). Talk about dodging a bullet there.
In general the sentiment seemed to be that it would end up being a race between Clinton and "Not-Clinton" and the question was whether "Not-Clinton" could unite around a single candidate and if said bloc could outnumber the Clinton bloc.
In general the sentiment seemed to be that it would end up being a race between Clinton and "Not-Clinton" and the question was whether "Not-Clinton" could unite around a single candidate and if said bloc could outnumber the Clinton bloc.
Beer Monkey
Member
Kamala has some really gross attitudes on Israel, but that's so standard in American politics that I'll take what I can get.
Hopefully Kamala (or whoever gets the 2020 nomination) will dial down the imperialism to contrast themselves with Trump.
Hopefully Kamala (or whoever gets the 2020 nomination) will dial down the imperialism to contrast themselves with Trump.
Like I said, I'm skeptical Biden will even run. I'm even more skeptical he'd even get through a primary. But his position as the most recent former vice president, and a very popular one at that, automatically makes him the frontrunner if not tied with/second to Bernie.
Also, Hillary won the popular vote and lost the electoral college by about 70-80k people, so "Hillary Clinton if she were a dude" certainly sounds like someone who can get over the finish line!
Box of Kittens
Banned
I got a whole lot wrong about the 2016 cycle, but one thing I did get right was that Walker would flame out early. Having lived in Wisconsin and seeing firsthand the extent to which he coasted on the utter incompetence of the Wisconsin Democratic Party I could tell he stood zero chance in a real race.
nature boy
Member
Bleh could've tweeted that with the original tweet
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
At this point, Ellison is probably my favored candidate if he runs, which he probably won't. If he doesn't, I'd probably vote for Bernie if he runs and Ellison doesn't. Jayapal would be good if she had a bit more experience but a sophomore congresswoman isn't something I'd be super comfortable with. Murphy and Brown would both be good if there's no Bernie or Ellison.
Absent those options, I'd probably opt in for Gillibrand, though I'd have to see what she's actually running on, but getting on the single payer side now is a good start.
Absent those options, I'd probably opt in for Gillibrand, though I'd have to see what she's actually running on, but getting on the single payer side now is a good start.
It's true. I don't even know who Biden's theoretical base in a Democratic primary. Centrist white voters isn't really a large enough demographic to get anywhere and Obamaworld isn't even interested in getting him to try. He has all of the same Third Way garbage that Hillary had attached but lacks her powerful connections in the party infrastructure.
Random Human
They were trying to grab your prize. They work for the mercenary. The masked man.
Now we just need him to insult a few more important states in time for re-election.
Booker also brings some core constituencies into question (like educators, for instance), and I think the shitshow that happened under his watch w/r/t the school system is pretty bad. Harris / Patrick are still fairly unknown and I'm curious as to how they vote as time goes on. Gillibrand and Booker are the two on everyone's radar inside the party I imagine. That said, it's a long damn time away from even 2019, and no one has had their "moment" similar to the 2004 convention speech. I mean, that speech was so good that the GOP thinktank response was basically limited to "he's really a Republican with that speech!". If you want an Obama type candidate, you do need someone who can crossover far more effectively than any of those candidates have shown the ability to do so far.
Like, it's been what, 6-7 months or so of Trump? There are 2 years remaining before the primary starts even kicking off. Long, long time away.
Box of Kittens
Banned
It's worth considering that talk of who the front runner is three years out tends to come down to name recognition and doesn't correlate all that well to who gets the nomination.
whyamihere
Banned
At this point, I'd probably go Bernie -> Warren -> Gillibrand -> Kamala -> Franken -> the rest -> Biden because my guess is that Sherrod won't jump in.
shut up let me have fun
Spoiled Milk
Banned
You don't have to have any name recognition at all. Just be in the right place at the right time. People might have known and liked Donald Trump but they REALLY started liking him when his kick-out-all-the-latinos speech went viral. Also Been Carson was a huge conservative personality but his poll numbers started surging high after the first few debates, not before.
Anyway 5 bucks says a guy wins the primary
I don't know what Realm of Paradoxes you have to live in to think someone can be a front-runner in a presidential election and not be sufficiently "well-known". The point is so confused that I momentarily questioned whether I was reading this in a dream.
Anyway 5 bucks says a guy wins the primary
Well sure, that's why I think no one but Biden, Bernie, and maybe Warren can be thought of as the frontunners right now. Not that they're the most electable, but they're the only ones anyone knows at all!
Box of Kittens
Banned
Hey now, I enjoy the conversation too. Just whenever we talk about Sanders or Biden being the frontrunner we should keep in mind that both have far higher profiles than Gillibrand, Harris, Booker, etc.
whyamihere
Banned
Oh, yeah, I know. But I think that Bernie comes in with a far more unique position and would be helped by a fractured field. But again, it's 2017.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
Hillary had greater than 60% favorability around this time last election cycle.
Box of Kittens
Banned
People liked her whenever she wasn't running for anything. Sadly, that turned out to be a problem with nominating her
whyamihere
Banned
premails
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
True, but I think "The Honorable Nina Turner" still has some legs left.
Holy crap, that's really an overlooked issue isn't it. Endorsements don't seem to translate to much, yet we seem to keep banking on it.
As long as the party platform continues to push for Women's Rights, and the DCCC continues to push for them, I don't care that an occasional canidate may not be lockstep on the occasional issue. Especially if they are not ideological to the point where they would vote for getting rid of Obamacare if it meant getting rid of Planned Parenthood funding.
I don't want the national messaging of the Democrats to deemphasize identity politics, or to change messaging to appeal to racists and xenophobes. But if someone runs and wins in a Dem primary, while running on such a plan, i'm not about to withhold my support for them in most cases. I want a canidate like Manchin in WV over virtually any Republican that would win in his place.
I am a bit concerned over the anti-trade messaging of Sanders being picked up by the Democrats. Anti-trade is a road that ends with the United States being worse off. We sure as hell can do better trying to explain why.
I mean, then you're using the word wrong. Frontrunner should mean "most likely to win." I don't think 2017 name recognition correlates well with that at all. Just say "most well-known."
RastaMentality
Banned
Was in the top 10 of stunning things last year. The fact that he's gone completely silent in the party during this entire healthcare/Trump fiasco is telling.
Also, this thread needs more sarcastic shinra posts.
Do you think Trump's unpopular Islamophobia would make a Muslim candidate like Keith Ellison more acceptable?
Box of Kittens
Banned
I do think that Sanders would have an advantage over Biden in that he has that base built in from the last run. People like Biden and you can see where he could appeal to certain demographics in particular, but he'd have to build a base which he's never really had (his 2008 candidacy never took off, and whatever support he built in 1988 is irrelevant now).
Basileus777
Member
No. This country would not elect a Muslim President.
Box of Kittens
Banned
Sadly I think Tyler jokes are pretty played out at this point, but I just don't want to let go.
Ehh, depends. I saw it coming once we saw Trump was for real. His rhetoric always matched up eerily well with the Republican base in the state that aren't Cubans.
See: all the confederates turning up from nowhere to vote for him in the general.
Trump's Muslim ban polls better than Trump does. I'm not sure how much to read into policy polling, particularly for Trump's crazier and more overtly racist ideas like this and the wall. I do find the argument that people are reluctant to out themselves as terrible human beings to pollsters to be a compelling one. (Moreso than any 'hidden Trump voter' stuff, which is bullshit)
whyamihere
Banned
i totally missed local milk people lololololol
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