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PoliGAF 2017 |OT5| The Man In the High Chair

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V

Valhelm

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Basileus777 said:
No. This country would not elect a Muslim President.
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America wouldn't elect a black president either.

I understand what you're saying and though I hate to say it, Ellison's Muslim faith probably would preclude from becoming president in 2020. But him running would be great not only to amplify his leftist views, but also to gauge to what degree his religion matters voters.
 
B

Blader

Member
pigeon said:
I mean, then you're using the word wrong. Frontrunner should mean "most likely to win." I don't think 2017 name recognition correlates well with that at all. Just say "most well-known."
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The frontrunner is literally just the person out in front. If we're talking about the frontrunner as of 2017, then 2017 name recognition would be a pretty big part of that. I'm not saying it correlates with who is most likely to win; obviously it's not going to be at this far out from the election. If we're talking about just "most likely to win," then nobody should be talking about frontrunners until about March 2020. Until then, the frontrunner is whoever has the biggest head start. For now, that's Biden, Bernie, and Warren.
 
J

jtb

Banned
Also the fact that Kamala has to make such a big push to establish name recognition early on is a big disadvantage for her, I think. She is too transparent about her ambitions for the presidency, and she'll have a big target on her back long before Iowa is even in the picture. Being the front-runner in perception - if not polling or likelihood to win - is generally a headache. I don't know what her base is yet, other than Californians who - I believe? - still vote dead last in the primary?

Valhelm said:
America wouldn't elect a black president either.

I understand what you're saying and though I hate to say it, Ellison's Muslim faith probably would preclude from becoming president in 2020. But him running would be great not only to amplify his leftist views, but also to gauge to what degree his religion matters voters.
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If he wanted to be President, he wouldn't have entered the DNC race. I think he seems much more interested in strengthening the grassroots/administrative side of the party than in higher office.

Which is a good thing, because otherwise you end up with self-dealing opportunistic hacks like DWS running the DNC
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
jmdajr said:
Rubio losing the Florida primary was something else.
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I feel like that started to look like more and more of a possibility as it approached when it became clear that (a) Trump was for real and (b) Rubio was an empty suit whose entire appeal was based on the idea that he appeals to other people.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Eidan said:
Gallup had Obama's name recognition at 53% in 2006.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2007/jul/1/obama-trails-in-name-id-efforts/
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Obama campaign spokeswoman Jen Psaki views the next seven months as “a marathon not a sprint.”

“What we are focusing on right now is to introduce Barack Obama to voters across the country, and … the more people that get to see him, the more they like him. We are very comfortable with that,” she said, adding that staffers recognize there is still “a lot of work to do.”
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Well, they did it.
 
H

Holmes

Member
I'm always back and forth on Sanders, but the two main things that give me pause on him are his age and that stupid FBI investigation. Which I know is stupid but fielding another candidate under yet another investigation makes me hesitate.

If he were to run, I'd want two things. A completely different team, like how Clinton did. And more enthusiasm to support downballot Democrats.

whyamihere said:
my guess is that Sherrod won't jump in
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you shut your whore mouth
 
P

PBY

Banned
Holmes said:
I'm always back and forth on Sanders, but the two main things that give me pause on him are his age and that stupid FBI investigation. Which I know is stupid but fielding another candidate under yet another investigation makes me hesitate.

If he were to run, I'd want two things. A completely different team, like how Clinton did. And more enthusiasm to support downballot Democrats.


you shut your whore mouth
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Sanders shouldn't run in 2020.
 
B

Bonen no Max'd

Banned
Yeah Sanders' age makes me hesitate too but absent Ellison or Brown I don't really see a great alternative, and Brown is already kinda old. At that point I'm at "Gillibrand isn't really my favorite but she seems to be moving into a good-ish place so I guess"
 
J

jtb

Banned
I think the 2018 senate race will keep Sherrod Brown from running. It's an impossible tightrope to walk. He might not even win.
 
K

Kusagari

Member
I have no problem with Biden or Bernie running, but, considering their age, I want both of them to name their VP before voting starts.
 
T

The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
Holmes said:
I'm always back and forth on Sanders, but the two main things that give me pause on him are his age and that stupid FBI investigation. Which I know is stupid but fielding another candidate under yet another investigation makes me hesitate.

If he were to run, I'd want two things. A completely different team, like how Clinton did. And more enthusiasm to support downballot Democrats.
Click to expand...

I think Sanders would be a bad president.

I'm....broadly fine with just about any other name being floated around
 
H

Holmes

Member
jtb said:
I think the 2018 senate race will keep Sherrod Brown from running. It's an impossible tightrope to walk. He might not even win.
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I'm not worried about Brown's race. What I think would hold him back is whether or not a Democrat wins the governor's race, which right now, who knows. But if a Republican wins, he'll probably not run for fear of being replaced by a Republican.
 
B

Bonen no Max'd

Banned
what the fuck

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nake...ed.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Miami Rep. Carlos Curbelo will attend an Aug. 23 fundraising reception hosted by nine Democrats, including former Miami Mayor Manny Diaz, Homestead Mayor Jeff Porter and Florida City Mayor Otis Wallace, according to an invitation to the event.

Curbelo drew his first Democratic opponent with national party backing, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, on Wednesday.

The sophomore congressman has campaigned as a moderate -- an image that can only be bolstered with Democratic financial support. Among the Democrats co-hosting the fundraiser are Ira Leesfield, a major Hillary Clinton donor, and attorney Roland Sanchez-Medina. Last year, Sanchez-Medina served as campaign treasurer for Curbelo's Democratic rival, Joe Garcia.

"While we don't agree with him on every issue, he is a voice of reason in an increasingly unreasonably partisan world, he works hard to represent Miami-Dade County in Washington, and, in particular, he is trying to bring both parties together for the good of the country," Sanchez-Medina said in an email to the Miami Herald. "We are proud to support Carlos."

Some Democrats on the list, including Porter, Wallace, political consultant Freddy Balsera and lobbyist Brian May, have also supported Curbelo in the past.
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no really what the fuck
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
jtb said:
I think the 2018 senate race will keep Sherrod Brown from running. It's an impossible tightrope to walk. He might not even win.
Click to expand...

I think the good news is that to win the Senate race means appealing to the electorate in Ohio, and while Ohio may well lose much of its importance going forward, the things one does to appeal in Ohio are likely to help in MI/PA/Wi.
 
J

jtb

Banned
Holmes said:
I'm not worried about Brown's race. What I think would hold him back is whether or not a Democrat wins the governor's race, which right now, who knows. But if a Republican wins, he'll probably not run for fear of being replaced by a Republican.
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Every minute and dollar he spends running for re-election (this is not Hillary 06 either, this is a deep Trump state even though Brown is obviously a very strong incumbent) is one that he can't spend running for President. And that's before any stupid "I will serve a full term" shenanigans that he has to pull along the way.

Bonen no Max'd said:
what the fuck

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nake...ed.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter



no really what the fuck
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Sounds like a bunch of nobodies and hanger-ons who are trying to hold on to their last bit of influence. How many of these people had been donors before?
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Box of Kittens said:
I think the good news is that to win the Senate race means appealing to the electorate in Ohio, and while Ohio may well lose much of its importance going forward, the things one does to appeal in Ohio are likely to help in MI/PA/Wi.
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Also it's pretty easy to turn around from a 2018 win and use that momentum to run nationally.
 
S

studyguy

Member
benicillin said:
You mean switch back? He was a Republican before 2015 lol.
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Yeah he's flopped before, also it's not like people shouldn't have seen it coming.

2016 said:
Justice is running as a conservative Democrat, not unlike former governor and current U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin, with whom he shares a number of campaign staff. He’s flip-flopped between the two major parties, giving money to both and changing his registration, most recently in February 2015, when he became a Democrat. However, he says he won’t vote for Clinton and dismissed Cole’s claim that he supports Obama as “complete dog snot.”

And while Justice spokesman Grant Herring says his candidate “isn’t focused on the national political circus,” the language he uses to describe his appeal sounds awfully familiar. “Jim is no politician,” says Herring. “He is the outsider in this race who has the skills and experience to transform the state.”

In his attacks on Justice, Cole spokesman Gates repeated one line a couple of times: “At the end of the day, Jim Justice is going to do what’s best for Jim Justice.”
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A

Abinash117

Member
Is this significant?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/specia...hington-grand-jury-in-russia-probe-1501788287

Special Counsel Robert Mueller has impaneled a grand jury in Washington to investigate Russia's interference in the 2016 elections, a sign that his inquiry is growing in intensity and entering a new phase, according to people familiar with the matter.

The grand jury, which began its work in recent weeks, is a sign that Mr. Mueller's inquiry is ramping up and that it will likely continue for months. Mr. Mueller is investigating Russia's efforts to influence the 2016 election and whether President Donald Trump's campaign or associates colluded with the Kremlin as part of that effort.
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K

kirblar

Member
whyamihere said:
Congrats to everyone that worked very hard to elect a Democrat in West Virginia last November!
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An unfortunate anecdote to add to the pile of "no seriously, Manchin is literally the best we're getting there."
Bonen no Max'd said:
what the fuck

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nake...ed.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

no really what the fuck
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Does he have compromising photos of everyone? Why in the hell would you do this (in a race that you should be fighting, if its an r+30 sure w/e?)
 
K

Kusagari

Member
Justice is obviously not a real Democrat, but he's been pretty critical of Republicans legislature agenda as well as the GOP health care plan as far as I'm aware.

Not sure why he sees the need to change parties.
 
J

jtb

Banned
I'd love to see polling on Joe Manchin, everybody's favorite Democratic senator to argue about on message boards.

He seems to have done all the right things, but you never know how it plays back home.
 
S

studyguy

Member
jtb said:
I'd love to see polling on Joe Manchin, everybody's favorite Democratic senator to argue about on message boards.

He seems to have done all the right things, but you never know how it plays back home.
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I'd like to get enough seats in senate to make Manchin irrelevant, but you know...

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/893197300532748289
(((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten)
If Justice is switching parties in WV, I believe that leaves Manchin and John Perdue (Treasurer) as only 2 statewide Dem office holders.
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whew
 
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