My snarky "lol at hardline predictions months before the campaign" post aside, there really isn't any actual information to work with yet. I just find, particularly in light of what I just got to experience first hand (I mean seriously, look at CALGARY!), the degree of confidence expressed in this thread sometimes hilarious.
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Canada Poligaf - The Wrath of Harperland
- Thread starter DreamMachine
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My snarky "lol at hardline predictions months before the campaign" post aside, there really isn't any actual information to work with yet. I just find, particularly in light of what I just got to experience first hand (I mean seriously, look at CALGARY!), the degree of confidence expressed in this thread sometimes hilarious.
You Are Viewtiful
Member
Welp, it looks like the NDP bump is a real trend.
Forum and EKOS will come out with full numbers tomorrow. I think 308 will update his site then. Curious to see how an NDP bump plays out in Liberal-Conservative battlegrounds like suburban Toronto.
Forum and EKOS will come out with full numbers tomorrow. I think 308 will update his site then. Curious to see how an NDP bump plays out in Liberal-Conservative battlegrounds like suburban Toronto.
firehawk12
Subete no aware
I feel like we're going into an inevitable vote splitting situation at this point. Yikes.
http://www.ipolitics.ca/2015/05/14/...-surge-puts-all-three-parties-in-a-dead-heat/
So the whole EKOS thing is out.
So the whole EKOS thing is out.
You Are Viewtiful
Member
I wonder what the Mulcair attack ads will be like.
http://www.threehundredeight.com/p/canada.html?spref=tw
New Projection from 308.
Regional Projections
New Projection from 308.
Regional Projections
You Are Viewtiful
Member
NDP's vote is really efficient. But it seems the ABC vote still belongs to the Liberals in most of Ontario. (or we might have to wait until it updates with new numbers).
matthewwhatever
Member
I think the numbers that will really matter are the second-quarter fundraising results that come out a little after the end of June. Advertising over the summer will be really important for all the parties, since that'll set the tone for the first bit of the fall campaign -- and if I'm not mistaken, they aren't subject to spending limits like they will be once the writ is dropped.
Also, is it just me, or are things like this and this over the line, even for this government? I know they somehow get away with a ridiculous amount, but they're not even trying to hide the fact that they consider the bureaucracy and the RCMP to be part of the Conservative Party.
Also, is it just me, or are things like this and this over the line, even for this government? I know they somehow get away with a ridiculous amount, but they're not even trying to hide the fact that they consider the bureaucracy and the RCMP to be part of the Conservative Party.
They fall under the 'it's not illegal if the government does it' but it's not good optics for them in either case
Yeah that second story is a big deal especially. Just blatantly undermining the rule of law, nbd.
Morrigan Stark
Arrogant Smirk
PKP elected leader of the PQ... -_-
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montr...u-elected-leader-of-parti-québécois-1.3075197
Nothing really surprising, but I'm still disgusted.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montr...u-elected-leader-of-parti-québécois-1.3075197
Nothing really surprising, but I'm still disgusted.
I'd bet a good sum money he doesn't make it to the election. I give him two years before he bails out.The issue with his shares in Quebecor will only get bigger now that he's the leader of the opposition. The PLQ and CAQ will pound on him non-stop. He can't hold his tongue so I expect many gaffes because of all this pressure.
But seriously, how is electing a leader with little charisma, poor public speaking skills, no political experience, filthy rich and despised by the unions supposed to be a good move for the PQ? At least take a chance on the relatively likeable young guy and hope he turns out to be your JFK/Obama (doubtfull but whatever...). He can't do worse than the last two leaders.
Buba Big Guns
Banned
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-...-disgusted-with-government-muzzling-1.3078587
Frustrating...this is a huge problem and Harper deserves to get booted for this alone.
Frustrating...this is a huge problem and Harper deserves to get booted for this alone.
Cloud Strife
Member
Hey all, writing a paper on the upcoming election and the key issues (we get to choose) that need to be addressed. The wording of the assignment is pretty broad, so I'm assuming I can pick stuff like "environment" or "economy" without getting ridiculously specific, but I doubt that would hurt. Seems to be more about what I think people care about the most.
Any good online resources to check out? Thanks
Any good online resources to check out? Thanks
You Are Viewtiful
Member
Really sad that this happens in the most university-educated country in the world. Harper is holding this country back big time.
killer rin
Member
I have a question for everyone. My brother is 17 and he has expressed his interest in voting once he's able, although he doesn't officially turn 18 until December. Is he pretty much screwed for this years federal election? We've been searching online and through the actual law pdf and can't seem to find anything that says otherwise so I assume he's screwed, but I figured I would see if anyone else here knows anything.
Whole reason this came up was because he walked by as I was registering to vote online
You Are Viewtiful
Member
You have to be 18 on election day to vote
http://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=vot&dir=yth/bas/faq&document=index&lang=e
If he really wants to help the candidate he's unable to vote for though, he can always volunteer or donate (not 100% sure about age limits on donating).
I brought this up a little while back after the Alberta NDP win, but that one MLA who had some poor instagram/facebook pictures has just been suspended from the caucus and will now sit as an independent for Calgary-Bow. Deborah Drever had some more pictures come to light, where she was supposedly making light of violence against women and homophobia, and Premier-Designate Notley suspended her and said she wont be allowed back until she takes some time to work out her issues and speaks out on issue with violence against women and LGBT individuals.
It's crazy though. Just poor all around. I mean voters didn't even pay attention to who she was, just elected whoever was NDP. The NDP just basically used whoever they could to run without checking to see whether there would be any issues etc.
It's crazy though. Just poor all around. I mean voters didn't even pay attention to who she was, just elected whoever was NDP. The NDP just basically used whoever they could to run without checking to see whether there would be any issues etc.
I don't think this is indicative of something bad overall, the party happens to be a victim of circumstance.
matthewwhatever
Member
I don't think there are age limits on donations. There have been minor scandals when it's been revealed that the toddler children of rich people have maxed out their donations to political parties and candidates, but I don't think there's ever been anything done about it.
Sakura
Member
Isn't that how it works every where? I'm sure most voters go to the polls with the intention of casting a vote for the party they like, not the specific person in their riding they like.
That's the case with even my parents. Always Liberal. Doesn't matter who the candidate is. Just Liberal.
That's the case pretty much everywhere. Our voting system which is really a very primitive one just does not acknowledge that reality.
killer rin
Member
Welp. Guess I'll have to tell him he's screwed and pass along the info. The voting system seems so messed up. You'd think they would operate it off of the year and not the exact day, because whats 2 months (or hell, the extreme at 12) going to do a person that suddenly makes them more mature.
I've seen that with my relatives too. half of them has always gone NDP and the other half has always gone Liberal.
The one where they're talking over his resume or something? And also for whatever reason they endorse him, but not for this election.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c86-9HitWg0
That doesn't make any sense but this is Harper and friends after all.
Buba Big Guns
Banned
That attack ad is pretty terrible laughed out loud when I saw it.
Sakura
Member
I always see comments like this, that somehow this education means something. Education means nothing in regards to common sense.
I work out in the oil sands as a safety inspector and when I'm back in town I get some people with environmental degrees (and current students) telling me we create the most pollution in the world. Then I had some kid with a bachelors (like arts or something) tell me how dangerous nuclear energy was because look at the plant 'Hiroshima'. He swore that was the name because he read four studies on nuclear power. That right there is just a glimpse of that great Canadian education. Tip of the iceberg that I have encountered.
Everyone thinks they know everything without even doing the research. Even with the internet at our fingertips, a vast amount of knowledge available for access at ease, we still have this type of ignorance bleating away and slowly rotting this country to the core. Read a few cliffnotes on an unverified source and you are an expert. Thank god not all millennials vote.
Being an engineer is absolute insanity. I sit here doing my work and it's just chaos circling around me like locusts. Its kind of surreal in a way as well. Watch the world destroy itself in anti intellectualism and I can't do a thing about it.
I don't know what made me type this all at 3 in the morning. Maybe the left over thoughts before bed. The things that keep you awake for a few more minutes.
homeworkfilms
Member
As a fellow Albertan I think you are holding students to a pretty high standard. They are learning. And part of learning is dialogue with people such as yourself. That is a good thing. Knowledge is contingent. Facts are contingent. While yes that is correct Canada is not the top polluter, it still is a major source of pollution relative to its population size. That matters. Again with Nuclear, sure that kid mixed it up but at least he or she was trying to talk about the environment. We can't both complain about lack of engagement then complain when people try to engage. The world is certainly not destroying itself with anti-intellectualism... It is pretty well understood the world is being slowly choked by the industries you and I to some extent are implicated in as workers and citizens of Alberta.
And this wins people over... really?
Buba Big Guns
Banned
You aren't wrong, but Canada is indeed a huge polluter and we are extremely wasteful when it comes to using our resources.
Muzzling and repressing scientists only serves to increase ignorance. As an engineer, this drives me crazy as well.
If your government isn't making evidence based policy decisions, then you know they don't have the best interests of the country in mind.
firehawk12
Subete no aware
Our government doesn't even have a census any more, so we've lost a decade of demographic data. That's where we stand in terms of making educated policy decisions.
The beginnings of another effective attack ad campaign from the Conservative. "Just not ready" is a line that is going to stick, just like "Stephane Dion, Not a Leader, not worth the risk" and "Michael Ignatieff, just visiting" did. Conservatives nailing the tag line again.
Edit: Now I'm rewatching those old attack ads, they are brilliant in how they nail the point.
Dion: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y5ZYW0LGJMw
Ignatieff: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fDBKGJzIdck
Did anyone post the last EKOS numbers?
http://www.ipolitics.ca/2015/05/22/...t-and-angry-intellectuals-put-mulcair-on-top/
All three parties are in a statistical tie, with the NDP leading the way.
There's some interesting stats there. The Liberal support from university graduates took a nosedive after the Alberta elections and C-51.
The prairies are still a Conservative stronghold unfortunately, I was hoping the Alberta election would have a ripple effect on federal support for the NDP there. Atlantic Canada, on the other hand, is still a Liberal stronghold.
The Conservatives stupid attack ads attacking Trudeau might actually be helping Mulcair
http://www.ipolitics.ca/2015/05/22/...t-and-angry-intellectuals-put-mulcair-on-top/
All three parties are in a statistical tie, with the NDP leading the way.
There's some interesting stats there. The Liberal support from university graduates took a nosedive after the Alberta elections and C-51.
The prairies are still a Conservative stronghold unfortunately, I was hoping the Alberta election would have a ripple effect on federal support for the NDP there. Atlantic Canada, on the other hand, is still a Liberal stronghold.
The Conservatives stupid attack ads attacking Trudeau might actually be helping Mulcair
The NDP, in the last few months in Alberta, have gone from the low teens to around 30. That's a pretty huge effect, all told. But Mulcair will always be a harder sell in Alberta than Notley was. The best thing the NDP have going for him is that he's not the son of the guy who attempted to nationalize the oil industry in the 70s.
No, the ripple effect from the NDP win here was always going to be the possibility that the rest of the country would take another look at them and consider the possibility that it's the right way to move to somewhat coalesce the non-Conservative vote.
Yeah it's like a very large group of voters got a letter in the mail saying "It's okay to vote for the NDP now if you want". The optics of being strong in Quebec + strong in Alberta really makes the NDP look like a reasonable national alternative in a way they never have before and, hell, when is the last time a national party has had this kind of a combination? AB and QC are usually on the opposite sides of everything.
Mulcair has to really reinforce that by making a lot of trips to Alberta and Quebec to shore up that really odd combination even though it might not help him win many seats in AB (though who the hell knows anymore). Falling in line with Notley's policies should help him avoid the traditional image of the NDP as hostile to the oil patch and maybe hold on to the bump and the image boost.
Mulcair has to really reinforce that by making a lot of trips to Alberta and Quebec to shore up that really odd combination even though it might not help him win many seats in AB (though who the hell knows anymore). Falling in line with Notley's policies should help him avoid the traditional image of the NDP as hostile to the oil patch and maybe hold on to the bump and the image boost.
matthewwhatever
Member
Oh good, someone a party leader trying to reassemble the old Mulroney coalition. That went so well the first time.
Except they've been trying to use the "Not ready" line against Trudeau for over a year, and it hasn't really stuck -- partly because Trudeau is still personally appealing to a lot of people, but in even larger part because it's a really stupid attack line. Whereas they were going after Dion and Ignatieff for alleged character traits that couldn't ever be fixed (because apparently daring to leave Canada to go teach at Harvard is a glaring personal defect), even if you accept the idea that "inexperience" is a valid point, it's still something that can be overcome. Harper himself, after all, had nothing in his résumé (which consisted of Hill staffer/backbench MP/President of a small hardcore rightwing thinktank) suggesting he was sufficiently experienced to lead a G8 country, yet voters were able to overlook that. As other people have pointed out, the Conservatives are basically endorsing Trudeau for 2019.
Except they've been trying to use the "Not ready" line against Trudeau for over a year, and it hasn't really stuck -- partly because Trudeau is still personally appealing to a lot of people, but in even larger part because it's a really stupid attack line. Whereas they were going after Dion and Ignatieff for alleged character traits that couldn't ever be fixed (because apparently daring to leave Canada to go teach at Harvard is a glaring personal defect), even if you accept the idea that "inexperience" is a valid point, it's still something that can be overcome. Harper himself, after all, had nothing in his résumé (which consisted of Hill staffer/backbench MP/President of a small hardcore rightwing thinktank) suggesting he was sufficiently experienced to lead a G8 country, yet voters were able to overlook that. As other people have pointed out, the Conservatives are basically endorsing Trudeau for 2019.
oreomunsta
Banned
I wonder if the NDP could come out in the federal election with something like "Stephen Harper: Running, but Alberta isn't following." or "The Conservatives: Alberta didn't want them, so why should you?" and have it stick.
They could, but they won't because they don't have the money.
Maybe, but Mulroney brought together decentralizers from both places in his big QC/AB tent. Not really the situation that Mulcair has unexpectedly found himself in (He helped Layton get QC sure, but Notley has very surprisingly given him an AB foothold)
I think the issue is that Justin Trudeau has a tendency to stick his foot in his mouth every now and then, which the ad comments on. Also, Harper taught economics at the University of Calgary, which I think is a little far to compare to being a drama teacher. Justin Trudeau might make a competent leader one day, but could you honestly imagine him alongside world leaders like Merkel and Putin? It would look like a joke, at least Mulcair is personally accomplished and has the necessary gravitas
Money men run everything :/
He has apparently *lectured* at the UofC. That's not what one usually means when they say someone "taught" at a university. Usually that means you're some kind of professor or adjunct, which as far as I can tell Harper has never been. I'm not sure where drama teachers came into things, but any drama teacher who actually does it for their job has almost certainly taught more than Harper.
edit: Oh I see, re. the drama teacher thing. Yeah, Trudeau has taught far more than Harper. And if you think being a high school teacher is easier than occasionally lecturing university students... well... I don't know what to tell you.
I don't know, Harper is already a joke if you've ever seen him with other world leaders.
His recent personal beef with Putin was just cringeworthy.
And Justin taught math and French. He's a teacher by trade. Harper isn't.
Also you can say that about any young politician without much experience. Detractors said the same for Obama, and look how well he turned out.
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