• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

Canada Poligaf - The Wrath of Harperland

Status
Not open for further replies.

Mr.Mike

Member
If the price of oil rises than oil companies will come back despite the (slightly) higher taxes the NDP will bring in. All the caterwauling from big corp CEOs is really about them making only 17 barrels of cash rather than 19 in a year. Notley will have revenue to work with and friendly mayors in Edmonton and Calgary to really get some valuable infrastructure built.

Subways in Edmonton and Calgary? Or more realistically some more light rail.

I know that there's an idea floating around to build a high speed rail line between Edmonton and Calgary. I'd imagine something like that that being built and turning out to be successful would greatly increase the odds of a Windsor to Quebec City high speed line, which would be super cool (and then ideally this line would be connected to the existing "higher-speed" line between Chicago and Detroit).

So is Alberta getting everybody hopes up about Harper or too premature to call?

The NDP seems to be pretty good at winning majorities with dramatic turnarounds.
 

maharg

idspispopd
Are you living in Alberta? I'm guessing no, because this comment is really far off base IMO.

Let's get this one out of the way first: Born in Calgary, live in Edmonton. You can take a flying leap off your high horse with this no true scotsman bullshit.

Wildrose have just capitalized on this as big as they can. There are not a lot more rural ridings for them to get.

Alberta is NOT mostly rural ridings. Calgary, Edmonton and their suburb ridings have 54 of 87 seats. These two major population centers have always decided Alberta politics. The other smaller cities can't be considered rural either.

The PC popular vote was still higher than Wildrose.
Wildrose goes from 17 to 21 seats. That's hardly a major breakthrough and there is no major shift to the other conservative choice. IMO Wildrose will continue to be just the rural conservative choice and not a major factor in Alberta politics.

Many of those suburban ridings include large swaths of rural area. Alberta has very questionable riding divisions, and rural Alberta has been the rock on which the PCs built their dynasty since after their first win, which was indeed decided by the cities. The cities have swung left many times since to no effect at all.

And going up in seat count after having half your party gutted, including its leader, and holding a leadership convention days before the election? That's a fucking miracle.
 
IMO, each election is local and trying to equate municipal with provincial and federal is wrong.

Federally, a party has to draw a larger broader consensus among different interests and is a different beast than provincial politics.

I fail to see on a national level how the Federal NDP right now can do better than 3rd place without Jack

in Quebec , people did not vote for the NDP, they voted for the man Jack (2011).

Now you have right leaning voters in the Quebec City region that voted NDP in 2011 who are going to vote Conservative in Oct 2015
 

Slavik81

Member
Subways in Edmonton and Calgary? Or more realistically some more light rail.
Calgary's been planning the North-Central / South-East LRT line for a while. Figuring out how to run the north end is rather tricky as there's no easy way to get from downtown up to Centre Street on the other side of the river. They'll likely need to build a long and expensive tunnel. There's also a bottleneck at Beddington and Centre Street where there's a block of houses that weren't built with the same right-of-way that the rest of Centre Street had. The South-East portion is much easier to plan by comparison.

Because downtown is a bottleneck for the hub-and-spokes LRT system, the plan is to build underground stations on 8th Ave. The current 7th Ave would be too full otherwise. IIRC, this and other transit development require an investment of 12 billion dollars over the next 20 years. The first station is expected in 2021.

http://www.calgary.ca/Transportation/TI/Pages/Transit-projects/Green-line/home.aspx
 
Bill C-51 passed :/

dmRbVl1.png
 

maharg

idspispopd
Calgary's been planning the North-Central / South-East LRT line for a while. Figuring out how to run the north end is rather tricky as there's no easy way to get from downtown up to Centre Street on the other side of the river. They'll likely need to build a long and expensive tunnel. There's also a bottleneck at Beddington and Centre Street where there's a block of houses that weren't built with the same right-of-way that the rest of Centre Street had. The South-East portion is much easier to plan by comparison.

Because downtown is a bottleneck for the hub-and-spokes LRT system, the plan is to build underground stations on 8th Ave. The current 7th Ave would be too full otherwise. IIRC, this and other transit development require an investment of 12 billion dollars over the next 20 years. The first station is expected in 2021.

http://www.calgary.ca/Transportation/TI/Pages/Transit-projects/Green-line/home.aspx

It's funny how Edmonton and Calgary's LRT development mirror each other. In Edmonton we built underground first, and it was basically so expensive and difficult to expand that it stalled for 20 years while the economy here went to shit. Now we're finally building out again, but we're probably going to have to build above ground for a future line because expanding the tunnel capacity is too expensive.

Meanwhile in Calgary, you built above ground and now probably have to build underground for roughly similar reasons.
 
The NDP seems to be pretty good at winning majorities with dramatic turnarounds.

Something happening twice in about 25 years doesn't exactly make a trend -- unless there are some other dramatic NDP turnarounds outside of Rae in 1990 and Notley yesterday that I'm forgetting?

Also, ha to Maharg's Alberta credentials being questioned. He's, like, Mr. Alberta in this thread.

It was interesting watching Brian Jean's press conference today. Pretty much every question was about uniting with the PCs. I'm skeptical of it happening before the next election, since the PCs may look at their vote totals decide this election was just a temporary blip, and dismiss it outright (and Wildrose might not want to attach themselves to something that looks like a sinking ship), but if the oil companies start feeling the pinch from falling oil prices and increased royalties, they might force the two parties into it.
 

maharg

idspispopd
I think the next interesting thing to me is how Mulcair develops energy policy for the fall. He's got to want to capitalize on this, but he's already done a lot of damage to his reputation on the subject here. And while I, personally, think C-51 is a good wedge for him to work with in the next campaign it'll probably be a bit lukewarm out here.

Does he get on board with Notley's "build pipelines, but carefully" approach? How does that play in Quebec? How Notley deals with BC on the subject may give him some room to grow even if he doesn't gain much in Alberta, but eh. In some ways I think this has put him in a really awkward spot.

Also, ha to Maharg's Alberta credentials being questioned. He's, like, Mr. Alberta in this thread.

To be fair, I live in a very specific bubble of Alberta politics. It's relatively wealthy, very urban, and extremely socially liberal. I know a lot of people who held their nose to vote PC last time (and otherwise consider the PCs "not the worst option on either end"), but not a lot who get genuinely enthusiastic about the PCs. To a lot of Albertans that practically makes me from Toronto. And it also means I could very easily be wrong. That said, I think we should all be pretty careful in our predictions given the last few elections in this country.

But I do genuinely believe that the PCs were not so much a place on the spectrum as power brokers under a big tent. And I don't see how that type of party survives when the tent is empty and the power is gone.
 
I think the next interesting thing to me is how Mulcair develops energy policy for the fall. He's got to want to capitalize on this, but he's already done a lot of damage to his reputation on the subject here. And while I, personally, think C-51 is a good wedge for him to work with in the next campaign it'll probably be a bit lukewarm out here.

Does he get on board with Notley's "build pipelines, but carefully" approach? How does that play in Quebec? How Notley deals with BC on the subject may give him some room to grow even if he doesn't gain much in Alberta, but eh. In some ways I think this has put him in a really awkward spot.



To be fair, I live in a very specific bubble of Alberta politics. It's relatively wealthy, very urban, and extremely socially liberal. I know a lot of people who held their nose to vote PC last time (and otherwise consider the PCs "not the worst option on either end"), but not a lot who get genuinely enthusiastic about the PCs. To a lot of Albertans that practically makes me from Toronto. And it also means I could very easily be wrong. That said, I think we should all be pretty careful in our predictions given the last few elections in this country.

But I do genuinely believe that the PCs were not so much a place on the spectrum as power brokers under a big tent. And I don't see how that type of party survives when the tent is empty and the power is gone.
Quebec can't find a municaplity that would be warm to the idea of having it's town be a port to export it. One place they were looking at was a breeding ground for Beluga whales and the government backed off after scientists said no no and environmentalist pressure. No municipality wants to be the port town.

New Brunswick may end up getting the exit port
 

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
With yesterday's results in Alberta, you can expect the Liberals to increasingly veer right to get Conservative votes, they won't keep on trying to get the NDP votes since that's a lot of effort for very few votes in the end. No wonder Trudeau and Co. have been giving a more right-leaning discourse on oil and all that crap.
 
With yesterday's results in Alberta, you can expect the Liberals to increasingly veer right to get Conservative votes, they won't keep on trying to get the NDP votes since that's a lot of effort for very few votes in the end. No wonder Trudeau and Co. have been giving a more right-leaning discourse on oil and all that crap.

your post makes no sense because Trudeau was courting unions last week
 
Quebec can't find a municaplity that would be warm to the idea of having it's town be a port to export it. One place they were looking at was a breeding ground for Beluga whales and the government backed off after scientists said no no and environmentalist pressure. No municipality wants to be the port town.

New Brunswick may end up getting the exit port

The Irvings are against Energy East, so no way it ends in NB.

But I do genuinely believe that the PCs were not so much a place on the spectrum as power brokers under a big tent. And I don't see how that type of party survives when the tent is empty and the power is gone.

If Alberta history is any guide, they're screwed. Looking next door, the BC SoCred example (in power for 30 years, then they vanished) also makes it look pretty dire for them. And the Union Nationale in Quebec had an equally bleak outcome, though in their case they were so tied to Duplessis that there's a pretty big difference.

There are some positive examples, though. The Liberals were on the losing end of two of the largest majorities in history (Diefenbaker in 1958 and Mulroney in 1984), but they came back as big tent parties. Provincially, the Ontario Tories, too, came back after being in power forever (as the Big Blue Machine) & losing...though they came back as a hard-right party, which may have screwed them over in the long run, since now the party just keeps going more and more to the right and getting further and further away from power. And in Saskatchewan, the CCF -- not really a big tent party in the sense of the Big Red/Blue Machine or the AB Tories, but they lasted forever as a political dynasty, so there are some similarities -- was able to stay relevant after losing, then come back as the NDP and become another dynasty. They're being killed by Wall now, but I think they'll come back eventually.

So...yeah. I'm buying into your thinking, that the Wildrose will overtake/succeed the PCs, but it's not out of the realm of possibility that they stick around and come back.
 

GSG Flash

Nobody ruins my family vacation but me...and maybe the boy!
Really disappointed by the Liberal support for C-51, so much so that I'm considering changing my voting intentions to NDP.

Didn't like Trudeau's explanation for the support either. The Liberals supported the bill despite the Conservatives not making amendments to it that the Liberals suggested, which is just telling me that they don't believe too strongly in those amendments.

You can hear Trudeau's explanation in the video embedded in this article: http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/05/06/bil-c-51-anti-terrorism-passes-vote_n_7227520.html
 

Madness

Member
CEWL0QqUEAERLNY.jpg


CEWL0QzUsAAGoCA.jpg


Lol the new NDP MLA for Calgary-Bow forgot to make her social media accounts private. So many people found her images including one where she is fingering the Canadian flag and writing JK Love Canada and as late as March 31st was looking for jobs for the summer of Kijiji. I got no qualms with what she's doing on her private accounts, but did the NDP even screen these candidates or pick basically anyone who seemed likeable enough? I mean virtually anyone would have won against the PC it seems.
 

maharg

idspispopd
I mean virtually anyone would have won against the PC it seems.

No one knew that basically until it happened. Running for a seat with little chance is basically an exercise in civic engagement, and all the parties have people in their slate who are doing that. Especially smaller parties have really limited resources to control this sort of thing. When the sweep to power a bunch of them end up along for the ride. Still, it's unlikely any of them (including her) did it for just a lark, and it's a real opportunity to actually do something.

I honestly find the equating of it with actual scandal that's happening on twitter kind of disgusting. She'll either shape up or she won't win the nomination next time, let alone the seat. That's a chance anyone putting their name into the hat and winning (however they did it) should get.

And I'd say all that for any party in the same position.
 

Azih

Member
In BC the Liberals and Conservatives basically merged on provincial scene to take on the NDP from the right and the province became a two party state pretty much from what I know. The same could happen in Alberta if the NDP manages to solidify and keeps taking advantage of WildRose and PC splitting the right wing vote.

I really hope Notley pushes for voting reform though. My 'side' may have won but that doesn't change the fact thatt Notley has full majority power with only 40% of the vote. Does anyone know if she's said anything about Proportional Represenation?
 
Their platform is light on specifics. Like, really light on specifics, to the point of not actually existing.

No one knew that basically until it happened. Running for a seat with little chance is basically an exercise in civic engagement, and all the parties have people in their slate who are doing that. Especially smaller parties have really limited resources to control this sort of thing. When the sweep to power a bunch of them end up along for the ride. Still, it's unlikely any of them (including her) did it for just a lark, and it's a real opportunity to actually do something.

Yeah -- somehow a couple of stupid pictures doesn't seem like a big deal when compared to, say, pretending to be a lawyer and forgetting to mention that you were fired from your teaching job for improper conduct, or being a crazy anti-semite. That, for me, is the bar for "scandal", and stuff like this is just silly.

And totally agree with the bold. I got to run as a slate-filling candidate once, and it was amazing. I knew I had zero chance of winning, but I still felt such an incredible sense of civic pride at getting the opportunity to do it. I'd think that anyone else in a similar position would feel the same way -- not too many people just do it for the heck of it.
 

mdubs

Banned
So is Alberta getting everybody hopes up about Harper or too premature to call?

Way too premature. If any election was tomorrow, it would be a Conservative minority, plus they are likely gaining seats due to C-51 because of Liberal voters switching to the NDP, spliting the left vote even further which significantly helps Con chances in the 905.
 

firehawk12

Subete no aware
No one knew that basically until it happened. Running for a seat with little chance is basically an exercise in civic engagement, and all the parties have people in their slate who are doing that. Especially smaller parties have really limited resources to control this sort of thing. When the sweep to power a bunch of them end up along for the ride. Still, it's unlikely any of them (including her) did it for just a lark, and it's a real opportunity to actually do something.

I honestly find the equating of it with actual scandal that's happening on twitter kind of disgusting. She'll either shape up or she won't win the nomination next time, let alone the seat. That's a chance anyone putting their name into the hat and winning (however they did it) should get.

And I'd say all that for any party in the same position.

The CBC did a report on the NDP students who were elected in Quebec and they seem to be doing well. I expect if there were any flame outs, we would have heard about it by now.

That said, I'm assuming they're all going to be gone after the next election when votes go back to the Liberals. Or perhaps they did a good enough job so that locals actually know who they are now.
 

Mr.Mike

Member
The CBC did a report on the NDP students who were elected in Quebec and they seem to be doing well. I expect if there were any flame outs, we would have heard about it by now.

That said, I'm assuming they're all going to be gone after the next election when votes go back to the Liberals. Or perhaps they did a good enough job so that locals actually know who they are now.

It's also possible that next time around the nomination will be taken more seriously and other people will win the NDP nomination. Of course at that point these young incumbents would have 4 years of experience in Parliament, and wouldn't be so terribly under qualified anymore.

That said, maybe having some random students is a great thing as it gives us better representation for the various demographics in Parliament. It's not like the entire NDP caucus is 20-somethings.
 

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
In BC the Liberals and Conservatives basically merged on provincial scene to take on the NDP from the right and the province became a two party state pretty much from what I know. The same could happen in Alberta if the NDP manages to solidify and keeps taking advantage of WildRose and PC splitting the right wing vote.

I really hope Notley pushes for voting reform though. My 'side' may have won but that doesn't change the fact thatt Notley has full majority power with only 40% of the vote. Does anyone know if she's said anything about Proportional Represenation?

That's exactly what will happen, the Liberals will go right and Canada will have a two-party system, except there will be three parties still, but practically that's how it will be.
 

firehawk12

Subete no aware
It's also possible that next time around the nomination will be taken more seriously and other people will win the NDP nomination. Of course at that point these young incumbents would have 4 years of experience in Parliament, and wouldn't be so terribly under qualified anymore.

That said, maybe having some random students is a great thing as it gives us better representation for the various demographics in Parliament. It's not like the entire NDP caucus is 20-somethings.
I think more realistically, a lot of those seats are going back to the Liberals though. But then again, I have no idea if Quebec loves Mulcair or not nowadays.
 

Pedrito

Member
The CBC did a report on the NDP students who were elected in Quebec and they seem to be doing well. I expect if there were any flame outs, we would have heard about it by now.

That said, I'm assuming they're all going to be gone after the next election when votes go back to the Liberals. Or perhaps they did a good enough job so that locals actually know who they are now.

From what I've heard, they've been doing a pretty good job in the field and their work is appreciated. I expect most of them to be re-elected, at least outside of Montreal.

I think more realistically, a lot of those seats are going back to the Liberals though. But then again, I have no idea if Quebec loves Mulcair or not nowadays.

I'd say he's well respected, but not really loved. But he's at least more popular than Trudeau and Harper.
 
How is that C-51 thread? I'm scared to even look in.

I think more realistically, a lot of those seats are going back to the Liberals though. But then again, I have no idea if Quebec loves Mulcair or not nowadays.

I think he'll hold a lot of rural Quebec -- it wouldn't surprise me at all if the NDP has replaced the BQ as the de facto sovereigntist party. Mulcair himself may not be loved, but those old voters with long memories are still pissed at the Trudeau name for killing their separatist hopes and dreams, and they're not about to suddenly go Conservative en masse. I think the Liberals will take back a chunk of the urban seats that the NDP holds (which would be pretty funny in Outremont), but that probably leaves a bunch of those NDP parachutes from 2011 holding their seats.
 

S-Wind

Member
And totally agree with the bold. I got to run as a slate-filling candidate once, and it was amazing. I knew I had zero chance of winning, but I still felt such an incredible sense of civic pride at getting the opportunity to do it. I'd think that anyone else in a similar position would feel the same way -- not too many people just do it for the heck of it.

Wow!

Which party did your run for? Which riding?
 

mdubs

Banned
There's a bunch of them in the C-51 thread.

I'm probably one of them :p

But anyways, I'll be curious to see the next polling aggregate from 308. I'm going to predict that Blue is going to gain seats because of a small bump in support for the NDP at the expense of Red, which may make the difference in many swing Blue-Red ridings. I think that Harper must be loving the way the entire C-51 thing is working out especially since it panders to the Blue base while potentially bleeding Liberal support.

Edit: Didn't realize that there was a new one released today, included it below although it doesn't capture the passing of C-51 yet.

Polling aggregate for everyone's viewing pleasure:

Projection%2BBack.png


Projection%2BBack.png


Regional breakdown below:


Any drop in Liberal support is going to be huge in Ontario judging by that.
 

firehawk12

Subete no aware
I'm curious to see what the Alberta numbers look like now. lol

Still, barring some kind of miracle, I really think a Conservative minority is the most likely outcome this year. As always, it comes down to the Liberals flipping Quebec NDP seats and Ontario Tory seats and I don't know if that will happen in large enough numbers.

So the Omar Khadr thread escalated quickly.

I don't wish for people to be banned, but there are some names in gray I do take pleasure in seeing.
I really don't know if you can take a nuanced position on this one. Either you think it's an injustice that has been one of Harper's white whales for over a decade, or you think all terrorists deserved to be locked up forever.

Ah, that's what happened to gutter_trash. :p
 
So the Omar Khadr thread escalated quickly.

I don't wish for people to be banned, but there are some names in gray I do take pleasure in seeing.
I wish less people would be banned for political opinions tbh. It's what creates the echo chamber effect here
And totally agree with the bold. I got to run as a slate-filling candidate once, and it was amazing. I knew I had zero chance of winning, but I still felt such an incredible sense of civic pride at getting the opportunity to do it. I'd think that anyone else in a similar position would feel the same way -- not too many people just do it for the heck of it.
That sounds awesome. Did you get to talk to people?
 

mdubs

Banned
I'm curious to see what the Alberta numbers look like now. lol

Still, barring some kind of miracle, I really think a Conservative minority is the most likely outcome this year. As always, it comes down to the Liberals flipping Quebec NDP seats and Ontario Tory seats and I don't know if that will happen in large enough numbers.

This is what I think as well, and I just don't see the Liberals taking back the Ontario seats they lost to the Cons in the last election. I think we can assume the NDP will lose a bit of ground in Quebec in some historically Liberal ridings, but not enough to really propel the Liberals anywhere they want to go. They really need to get the message out, because the Liberals don't have any identifiable policy differentiation (aside from pot legalization?) that will really engage the public. As diaspora was saying this will likely come closer to the election but I have doubts about whether they will really be able to differentiate from the Conservative platform in a way that will win uninformed voters.

I'll be interested to see updated Alberta numbers from 308 in a week. I suspect there won't be much change in the federal seat breakdown, but we'll see.
 

firehawk12

Subete no aware
This is what I think as well, and I just don't see the Liberals taking back the Ontario seats they lost to the Cons in the last election. I think we can assume the NDP will lose a bit of ground in Quebec in some historically Liberal ridings, but not enough to really propel the Liberals anywhere they want to go. They really need to get the message out, because the Liberals don't have any identifiable policy differentiation (aside from pot legalization?) that will really engage the public. As diaspora was saying this will likely come closer to the election but I have doubts about whether they will really be able to differentiate from the Conservative platform in a way that will win uninformed voters.

I'll be interested to see updated Alberta numbers from 308 in a week. I suspect there won't be much change in the federal seat breakdown, but we'll see.
I know provincial politics has very little to do with federal results, but you'd think the NDP would try to capitalize somehow.

Looking at the UK election results, I find it a bit amusing because we might have the same results here. A complete collapse of the NDP as they lose their Quebec/Ontario support, an ineffectual Liberal party who will become official opposition again, and another Conservative majority. It already seems like we're slowly headed to that kind of result already.
 

mdubs

Banned
I know provincial politics has very little to do with federal results, but you'd think the NDP would try to capitalize somehow.

Looking at the UK election results, I find it a bit amusing because we might have the same results here. A complete collapse of the NDP as they lose their Quebec/Ontario support, an ineffectual Liberal party who will become official opposition again, and another Conservative majority. It already seems like we're slowly headed to that kind of result already.

They'll certainly try, as they should, but I think the issue is that the Alberta NDP is not nearly as far to the left afaik as the federal NDP (who are in a continual struggle trying not to alienate their labour supporter while trying to steal Liberal votes and not nearly as far to the left as they have been historically or like to believe they are) and the Alberta election seems to largely have been a protest vote because of A. right vote spliting and B. disgust with the PCs and Wildrose. I don't think this will translate into animosity towards to federal Conservatives, who Alberta has been (and still is according to the latest polls) quite happy to overwhelmingly support.

Personally I don't see the NDP quite collapsing, they still retain a healthy body of support in Quebec where their polling numbers have been very solid. I'd guess we'll see the Cons fall just short of a majority with the Liberals making gains and the NDP losing some Quebec seats. However, I just don't see a case in which the Cons lose this election unless they get some sort of disasterous ruling in the Duffy case but even in that scenario they've proven themselves to have quite the ability to deflect broad public anger among the electorate (not counting the internet audience, but as the UK elections shows, the overwhelming climate on the internet made zero difference in preventing a Conservative majority)
 

firehawk12

Subete no aware
I guess we'll see. I don't really expect anything to come out of the Duffy trial in terms of anything long lasting, and I have to imagine some people who voted NDP will go back to voting Liberal as the reality of another Harper government becomes apparent.
 

CygnusXS

will gain confidence one day
I have to admit general ignorance on this, but if Harper couldn't run in the next election for some reason, who's the front-runner to be his successor within the party? Is this something we know?
 

CygnusXS

will gain confidence one day
This is strange, but I'm now mildly worried that I've ended up on some CSIS list because I asked that question. C-51 sucks.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top Bottom