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[firehawk12]

I agree, guy at work is in this riding and said he was voting green. I said you are just going to split the vote and let the Conservative win.. Its obvious more people don't want the conservative candidate.. but I guess that's how it works. :/

Less than 30% voter turnout so far also.. as always here apathy reigns.

By-elections probably gather less attention than even municipal elections. lol

There really isn't much of a 'lefty' vote in Calgary Centre. There's a kind of progressive libertarian vote that's shedding off the much more socially conservative CPC candidate's vote (she was a WRP candidate in the recent provincial election).

For context, this riding hasn't been anything but some form of conservative (PC, Reform, Alliance) since it was created in 1968. In the last election, the CPC won it with 57% of the vote. Very little of the Lib/Green vote that's happening right now is left-wing in a sense that would apply to most of the rest of the country.

Wow. Victoria is *tied*. To the vote. At 140/256 polls in.

So are people just flipping a coin between the NDP and Green there? Even so, if one of the parties didn't exist, then at least the protest vote would actually go somewhere that would be an effective form of protest...

Edit: Whoops, of course I mean Liberal and Green. lol I'm mixing up ridings in my head.

 

[maharg]

By-elections probably gather less attention than even municipal elections. lol


So are people just flipping a coin between the NDP and Green there? Even so, if one of the parties didn't exist, then at least the protest vote would actually go somewhere that would be an effective form of protest...

Edit: Whoops, of course I mean Liberal and Green. lol I'm mixing up ridings in my head.

Green and Liberal are pretty different parties, really. I think they appeal to different sorts of people.

Most of the people who would switch from CPC to Green would probably never ever consider voting for Liberal because, well, NEP and Trudeau.

 

[firehawk12]

Green and Liberal are pretty different parties, really. I think they appeal to different sorts of people.

Most of the people who would switch from CPC to Green would probably never ever consider voting for Liberal because, well, NEP and Trudeau.

Well, they might as well have voted CPC then because that's essentially what they're doing.

Yay FPTP!

 

[Socreges]

Voted Green in Victoria. Would never want a Green PM, but I like Galloway for our riding.

Nice to see that he's ahead currently. I think most people had been projecting an NDP win?

[edit] oh wow, NDP is ahead now. They're switching with every refresh.

[edit2] still 20% left to report

[edit] bah rankin pulling away

 

[maharg]

Projections for Victoria were, afaik, a landslide for the NDP.

 

[firehawk12]

NDP were saved by those final counts. Still, 44% turnout in that riding is fairly impressive.

 

[Socreges]

NDP were saved by those final counts. Still, 44% turnout in that riding is fairly impressive.

Any idea what the turnouts have been historically?

Victoria's always struck me as a particularly involved and socially conscious community so I'd guess their turnouts have been above average. I only just moved here two years ago, though.

 

[firehawk12]

Any idea what the turnouts have been historically?

Victoria's always struck me as a particularly involved and socially conscious community so I'd guess their turnouts have been above average. I only just moved here two years ago, though.

I mean, it's 10-15% higher than the other two ridings anyway.

 

[Socreges]

I mean, it's 10-15% higher than the other two ridings anyway.

Yeah, I noticed that too. Would be interesting to know, though, if this is an anomaly or if Victoria historically has high turnouts.

Obviously 44% isn't necessarily "high", but I'd say it is for a by-election.

 

[firehawk12]

Yeah, I noticed that too. Would be interesting to know, though, if this is an anomaly or if Victoria historically has high turnouts.

Obviously 44% isn't necessarily "high", but I'd say it is for a by-election.

67% in the last election, which is above the national average (61%).

 

[maharg]

Any idea what the turnouts have been historically?

Victoria's always struck me as a particularly involved and socially conscious community so I'd guess their turnouts have been above average. I only just moved here two years ago, though.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victoria_(electoral_district)

(Wiki articles on ridings are generally pretty detailed)

 

[matthewwhatever]

There really isn't much of a 'lefty' vote in Calgary Centre. There's a kind of progressive libertarian vote that's shedding off the much more socially conservative CPC candidate's vote.

For context, this riding hasn't been anything but some form of conservative (PC, Reform, Alliance) since it was created in 1968. In the last election, the CPC won it with 57% of the vote. Very little of the Lib/Green vote that's happening right now is left-wing in a sense that would apply to most of the rest of the country.

Hmmm...does anyone with a firm grasp of Alberta politics know if the Calgary by-election might be a sign of things to come in the province -- with Wild Rose members sticking with the Conservatives, while the progressive/liberal-tarian wing of the PC Party goes Liberal/Green/NDP? I know you never want to extrapolate anything from a by-election, but still...it would be really neat if that were to happen.

(Also, bah, stupid Greens, costing the Libs a seat. Though I can't imagine the comments from Trudeau and McGuinty helped much.)

 

[maharg]

It's possible the Liberals might have a chance in some Calgary ridings come 2015. Alberta just keeps getting more urban, and that tends to favour the less conservative parties in the long run (as it did for the rather more left-leaning than 10 years ago PC party). Note that right now, in general, Calgary seems to favour the Liberals and Edmonton the NDP for their respective urban votes.

But I really wouldn't read too much into it. Alberta politics are notorious for having what looks like an upset and then a so-fast-it'll-give-you-whiplash reversion to mean. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Joan Crockatt win the riding with >50% in the general.

 

[IceCold]

Have you guys seen this: http://www.vancouversun.com/enterta...s+illegal+downloaders+data/7613925/story.html

Interesting. Maybe if Canada didn't have so many shitty ISPs, people wouldn't download illegal crap as much.

 

[Frankie Williamson]

It's super close right now in Victoria. I guess Elizabeth May will be our next PM (because of the three opposition parties, she has just as much chance as the other two guys ).

The other two are still Blue though. The Calgary one is interesting because the Green and the NDP look like - to me, the guy who doesn't understand Alberta - they're splitting the lefty vote and letting the Conservative take it. But what do I know.

Isn't that how Canada works entirely right now. Way more left than right, but left votes are split so we have the mandated by God Conservative majority.

 

[firehawk12]

Isn't that how Canada works entirely right now. Way more left than right, but left votes are split so we have the mandated by God Conservative majority.

I certainly think so.

But I think other people believe that there's still a centre-left that is distinguishable from both the NDP and the centre-right Conservative position that makes the Liberals and the Green still relevant. And so, here we are.

 

[maharg]

We don't need fewer parties, and if we had them we'd just go down the path the US has gone down. We need the ability to translate the electorate's will into a government that reflects it. A best compromise instead of a worst compromise.

And I think we'll see that happen before we'd ever see any of the parties willing to merge with the others. Reform and PC is not an example that can be followed here since they merged only about 10 years after they split. The NDP and Greens are not offshoots or ex-factions of the Liberals.

 

[firehawk12]

We don't need fewer parties, and if we had them we'd just go down the path the US has gone down. We need the ability to translate the electorate's will into a government that reflects it. A best compromise instead of a worst compromise.

I've become convinced that in a FPTP system, two parties that represent broad interests is the only way that the majority of the people in the country can be happy with an election outcome.

Since we will never move beyond FPTP in my life time, I have no choice but to be pessimistic about our political reality.

 

[maharg]

Again with the stasis.

 

[zedge]

It's possible the Liberals might have a chance in some Calgary ridings come 2015. Alberta just keeps getting more urban, and that tends to favour the less conservative parties in the long run (as it did for the rather more left-leaning than 10 years ago PC party). Note that right now, in general, Calgary seems to favour the Liberals and Edmonton the NDP for their respective urban votes.

But I really wouldn't read too much into it. Alberta politics are notorious for having what looks like an upset and then a so-fast-it'll-give-you-whiplash reversion to mean. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Joan Crockatt win the riding with >50% in the general.

Not sure what you mean by getting more urban? The majority of Alberta's population has always been urban, much like the rest of the country. Calgary and Edmonton alone are 2/3 the population of Alberta. Majority of the remainder live in smaller cities like Lethbridge, MH, Red Deer etc. Canada is a very urban country period, one of the highest in the world actually.

 

[maharg]

Not sure what you mean by getting more urban? The majority of Alberta's population has always been urban, much like the rest of the country. Calgary and Edmonton alone are 2/3 the population of Alberta. Majority of the remainder live in smaller cities like Lethbridge, MH, Red Deer etc. Canada is a very urban country period, one of the highest in the world actually.

And it's getting more so. I didn't say it wasn't balanced that way already. Population growth in the cities outpaces growth in the province as a whole by a considerable amount. This shifts the weight of electoral districts towards urban ones.

Also cities like Red Deer/Lethbridge/etc. also have demographic shifts as they grow from big town to small city. Hell, Red Deer has grown from 60k to 90k just in the last ten or so years since I lived there. One of Lethbridge's ridings is a likely target for the NDP in the next election.

 

[zedge]

And it's getting more so. I didn't say it wasn't balanced that way already. Population growth in the cities outpaces growth in the province as a whole by a considerable amount. This shifts the weight of electoral districts towards urban ones.

Also cities like Red Deer/Lethbridge/etc. also have demographic shifts as they grow from big town to small city. Hell, Red Deer has grown from 60k to 90k just in the last ten or so years since I lived there. One of Lethbridge's ridings is a likely target for the NDP in the next election.

The growth of those smaller cities is crazy. I see what your getting at though. To be honest I enjoy reading your posts, you often put in words what I cannot.

 

[gutter_trash]

who are these hipsters voting for Green?

Like really? LOL they really want Harper to govern for 20 more years

 

[matthewwhatever]

Actually, there's a big portion of Greens who are convinced that they're about to win over Alberta conservatives. I remember working for the Greens in 2004 during the election, and Preston Manning wrote an op-ed somewhere that came shockingly close to endorsing the Greens (or so we read it at the time). Even though Alberta still hasn't, it wouldn't surprise me if Greens are still clinging to that.

I doubt that Calgary Centre is a sign of that happening though. More likely, it's a combination of protest vote, and the disaffected PCers not wanting to vote for a Wild Rose-style candidate, but not being able to bring themselves to vote Liberal.

 

[explodet]

Have you guys seen this: http://www.vancouversun.com/enterta...s+illegal+downloaders+data/7613925/story.html

Interesting. Maybe if Canada didn't have so many shitty ISPs, people wouldn't download illegal crap as much.

Logan said the court decision means Canadians must realize they could be held liable for illegal downloading and statutory damages of up to $5,000.

... eh, I'll admit I've downloaded way more than that.
I'll fess up if I get caught.

 

[gutter_trash]

protest vote = Bloc Quebecois.. that turned out nicely for 15 years huh? wasted

 

[Samyy]

... eh, I'll admit I've downloaded way more than that.
I'll fess up if I get caught.

As I recall its one company and a bunch of shitty direct to tv movies
Edit: Also they have only your IP and theres precedent for such cases. You cannot be held liable when all they have is an IP as it does not identify you.

 

[Markster]

protest vote = Bloc Quebecois.. that turned out nicely for 15 years huh? wasted

15 years of a large federal influence, ensuring that many pieces of legislation had separate Quebec provisions, or generally had federal control watered down and passed towards the provinces.

The Bloc was not a waste for Quebec.

 

[gutter_trash]

15 years of a large federal influence, ensuring that many pieces of legislation had separate Quebec provisions, or generally had federal control watered down and passed towards the provinces.

The Bloc was not a waste for Quebec.

as a Montrealer who lived in Duceppe's riding....
I can confirm that the Bloc was a total waste of time and money.

 

[maharg]

Actually, there's a big portion of Greens who are convinced that they're about to win over Alberta conservatives. I remember working for the Greens in 2004 during the election, and Preston Manning wrote an op-ed somewhere that came shockingly close to endorsing the Greens (or so we read it at the time). Even though Alberta still hasn't, it wouldn't surprise me if Greens are still clinging to that.

I doubt that Calgary Centre is a sign of that happening though. More likely, it's a combination of protest vote, and the disaffected PCers not wanting to vote for a Wild Rose-style candidate, but not being able to bring themselves to vote Liberal.

Green is definitely the party most mainstream Albertan conservatives can see themselves supporting if not the Conservatives, but it's a very weak second choice.

 

[IceCold]

As I recall its one company and a bunch of shitty direct to tv movies
Edit: Also they have only your IP and theres precedent for such cases. You cannot be held liable when all they have is an IP as it does not identify you.

That's what I was thinking. Wouldn't you be able to say that someone could have accessed your router (or hacked into if it's protected) and downloaded stuff using your internet connection?

But I'm pretty sure people have been charged for downloading illegal stuff in the US so who knows.

 

[Socreges]

who are these hipsters voting for Green?

Like really? LOL they really want Harper to govern for 20 more years

Go on...

 

[firehawk12]

Again with the stasis.

The Liberals got 3 cycles previously (4 if you want to count the tepid Martin win, which was a sign of the end), so yeah, stasis. lol

As long as everyone on the Left insists on acting on their own, nothing's going to change. The Right learned this lesson the hard way... I just hope it doesn't take a few more cycles of utter defeat before the Left gets their act together.

 

[maharg]

And the CPC are now on their third. When the next election comes around Harper alone will have been in power for almost 10 years. So....

 

[gabbo]

And the CPC are now on their third. When the next election comes around Harper alone will have been in power for almost 10 years. So....

Unless he's got a few trump cards left, he'll jump ship.

 

[UberTag]

As long as everyone on the Left insists on acting on their own, nothing's going to change. The Right learned this lesson the hard way... I just hope it doesn't take a few more cycles of utter defeat before the Left gets their act together.

The real strategy needs to be an underground movement from left-wing supporters to form an alternative RIGHT-wing party in battleground ridings where the PC incumbents have received 40% of the vote or less.

Call themselves the Reform Party or something. Pretty much mirror the right-wing PC platform except for a few hot button social issues where you lean far right to dilute the extremists who feel the Tories have gotten soft. Get the right-wing vote to split so the Liberal/NDP support can be a little more consolidated and break through.

Refer to the initiative in closed circles as the Trojan Horse gambit.

 

[gabbo]

The real strategy needs to be an underground movement from left-wing supporters to form an alternative RIGHT-wing party in battleground ridings where the PC incumbents have received 40% of the vote or less.

Call themselves the Reform Party or something. Pretty much mirror the right-wing PC platform except for a few hot button social issues where you lean far right to dilute the extremists who feel the Tories have gotten soft. Get the right-wing vote to split so the Liberal/NDP support can be a little more consolidated and break through.

Refer to the initiative in closed circles as the Trojan Horse gambit.

And if it backfires and they get elected?

 

[maharg]

Eh, it'd probably be easier to resurrect the old PC party. There's at least still provincial organization around for that.

Honestly I'm not sure that's not the most likely outcome for the Liberal Party in the long run. The NDP may end up pushing them over the centre line a bit more.

 

[Zekes!]

I totally forgot to vote in the Victoria by-election. Was working all day. Was planning on voting Green.

 

[firehawk12]

The real strategy needs to be an underground movement from left-wing supporters to form an alternative RIGHT-wing party in battleground ridings where the PC incumbents have received 40% of the vote or less.

Call themselves the Reform Party or something. Pretty much mirror the right-wing PC platform except for a few hot button social issues where you lean far right to dilute the extremists who feel the Tories have gotten soft. Get the right-wing vote to split so the Liberal/NDP support can be a little more consolidated and break through.

Refer to the initiative in closed circles as the Trojan Horse gambit.

Was Mulcair really born in Canada? I think we need a birth certificate.

Anyway, I figure Harper will jump ship after winning in 2015... then try to find one of the less crazy MPs on his cabinet to groom into a leader to take into 2019.

Or maybe he actually is an emotion-less robot and will rule with an iron-fist forever. lol

 

[gabbo]

Was Mulcair really born in Canada? I think we need a birth certificate.

Anyway, I figure Harper will jump ship after winning in 2015... then try to find one of the less crazy MPs on his cabinet to groom into a leader to take into 2019.

The only guy even remotely still on the not-crazy ship is the guy he beat to become leader of the party, and likes short rides in government helicopters.

 

[gutter_trash]

Was Mulcair really born in Canada? I think we need a birth certificate.

Anyway, I figure Harper will jump ship after winning in 2015... then try to find one of the less crazy MPs on his cabinet to groom into a leader to take into 2019.

Or maybe he actually is an emotion-less robot and will rule with an iron-fist forever. lol

Canada doesn't have a born-in Canada clause to run for PM.

Sir John A. Macdonald : Born in Glasgow, Scotland
Alexander Mackenzie : Born near Dunkeld, Perthshire, Scotland.
Sir Mackenzie Bowell : Born in Rickinghall, Suffolk, England
John Turner : Born at Richmond, Surrey, England



Mulcair is born in Ottawa, he has dual citizenship because he is married to a French national. There is nothing wrong with dual citizenship, if Conservatives wanna run with that then they are being retarded about it since many Canadians have duality.

 

[matthewwhatever]

I don't disagree with you on that...but the fact that the Conservatives 1) turned "Just Visiting" into a legitimate attack against Iggy and 2) were able to make the French citizenship of both Michelle Jean and Stephane Dion issues makes me think it'll still be an effective line of attack if they decide to use it.

The only guy even remotely still on the not-crazy ship is the guy he beat to become leader of the party, and likes short rides in government helicopters.

Peter Mackay stands no chance of becoming leader. There are too many former federal PCers (myself included) who will never forgive him for killing off his old party, and too many former Reformers who wouldn't support someone who wasn't a member of their party. I think when Harper does eventually step down, Jim Prentice will replace him.

 

[maharg]

Imagine what they'd do to Marc Garneau for having been to outer space after what they did to Ignatieff for having been to the US.

 

[BigJonsson]

Imagine what they'd do to Marc Garneau for having been to outer space after what they did to Ignatieff for having been to the US.

LOL

 

[Parch]

Vote splitting has always been the deciding factor. It happened to the right, now it's happening to the left. Quebec always seem to go for those "protest" votes. The NDP will never be taken seriously so the left needs the Liberals to recover, and they will.

As we've seen from our southern neighbors, a two party system is a ridiculous joke so that's not a path we need to go down, but three major parties always leads to these vote splitting wins. It would be better if there were four significant parties. Green or Reform or whatever becomes a bigger factor nationally and not just regionally. That provides the variety and the protest votes instead of it always being just left or right, one or the other.

Which is ultimately the big difference in Canadian politics. It's not extreme left or right, black or white, it's always been shades of grey.

 

[Dynedom]

Imagine what they'd do to Marc Garneau for having been to outer space after what they did to Ignatieff for having been to the US.

Marc Garneau: He didn't land on planet Earth for you!

 

[maharg]

Vote splitting has always been the deciding factor. It happened to the right, now it's happening to the left. Quebec always seem to go for those "protest" votes. The NDP will never be taken seriously so the left needs the Liberals to recover, and they will.

As we've seen from our southern neighbors, a two party system is a ridiculous joke so that's not a path we need to go down, but three major parties always leads to these vote splitting wins. It would be better if there were four significant parties. Green or Reform or whatever becomes a bigger factor nationally and not just regionally. That provides the variety and the protest votes instead of it always being just left or right, one or the other.

Which is ultimately the big difference in Canadian politics. It's not extreme left or right, black or white, it's always been shades of grey.

Four major parties without a significant change in our electoral system is no better a solution than two. Unless you like the idea of a majority government on the back of 25% of the popular vote.

 

[Parch]

Maybe not "major", but we've had 4 parties most of the time. PC, Lib, NDP and then Reform and/or Bloc. Problem is those last two have always been strongly regional and not a national factor.

It is still possible to form a majority government with or without alliances, and winning with 50%+ popular vote is always rare and unrealistic.
I really, really DO NOT want to see Canada regress to a two party system and strongly believe it would never happen. Quebec certainly seems to have little interest in ever having a two party dominance.

 

[maharg]

The rise of Reform and the Bloc came with the demise of the PCs. It was a temporary fracturing, not a permanent state of affairs. Most of the time is definitely overstating it.

And my point about 25% winning a majority government has nothing to do with the likelyhood of a 50% win. It has to do with increasingly unrepresentative governments. We're almost to the point that 1/3rd of voters choose the winner of a majority government as is. Your proposal for a stronger fourth party would bring that down to 1/4.

The only way to avoid a regression to two parties is electoral reform.