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Canada Poligaf - The Wrath of Harperland

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Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
Maybe not "major", but we've had 4 parties most of the time. PC, Lib, NDP and then Reform and/or Bloc. Problem is those last two have always been strongly regional and not a national factor.

Canada did not have strong or permanent third parties until the Social Credit / CCF. The Social Credit movement burned out fairly quickly, and until 1988 Canada would best be characterized as having a two-and-a-half party system. With 1988, the electoral calculus changed with Reform and Bloc, although still our effective number of political parties typically varied from 2.8-3.3 or so. In 2011, Canada's ENP was about 2.45 and with the (momentary?) death of the bloc, that figure exclusively consists of national parties.

Although some claim Canada is an exception to Duverger's law, it's more accurate to say that Duverger's law is a tendancy over time rather than an argument to be made about each election, and that regional parties subvert it. Canada will tend towards two parties without electoral reform.
 
The rise of Reform and the Bloc came with the demise of the PCs. It was a temporary fracturing, not a permanent state of affairs. Most of the time is definitely overstating it.

Long, possibly contentious argument:

The NDP falling apart helped as well -- people often overlook that 1993 didn't just see the obliteration of the PC Party*, but also the NDP, who went from 44 seats to 9 seats. I don't have the exact numbers off-hand, but a significant number of seats actually ended up going from the NDP to the Reform Party (I know this because in 2000, I was working in the PC Party research office, and I had to do riding profiles for every riding in the country). I know that sounds counterintuitive, but I once had someone explain it to me that Canada didn't really divide into left and right, but rather establishment and counter-establishment, with the bulk of the population falling on the establishment side (which falls in line with the whole POGG idea of Canada). The West was where the bulk of the counter-establishment was/is, so they went for the NDP when it was a viable protest voice, and they switched over to the Reform Party when that started seeming more viable.

* Also, I need to point out that the PC Party wasn't as thoroughly devastated in 1993 as the final results would have you believe. They still got 16% of the vote -- 2.5x more than the NDP -- but because of FPTP, their vote was too inefficiently spread out to show up in the final results. Not that it matters anymore, of course.

(Further evidence that Canada's not -- or, at least, wasn't -- neatly split on left-right lines: the BQ took a whole bunch of seats from the PC Party, even though they're supposedly on opposite sides of the ideological spectrum. This is similar to what happened in the West, since in Quebec, the PC Party was sort of the counter-establishment to the Liberal establishment.)

Obviously, Canada has clearly become much more polarized along left-right lines over the last twenty years -- people bought into the "Unite The Right" myth, so even if it wasn't true at first, it eventually became that way, and once it was established that we had a "right" to unite, then it became belief that the same could/should be done on the left. However, I think there's still a little something to the idea that Canada's more divided along establishment-antiestablishment lines than ideology -- consider the fact that while the rest of the world has seen incumbents losing on a regular basis throughout the course of the recent recession, incumbents here won more often than not, federally and provincially.

All of that is to say: I think that as long as we have a 2.5+ party system, the only way the Liberals ever get back to their former glory is by somehow reclaiming the centre, and establishing themselves as...well, the establishment party. It obviously won't be easy for them to do, seeing as the Conservatives have managed to keep a lid on/hide their craziness for so long that they've arguably displaced the Liberals from that spot, but it's pretty much their only chance. (As a sidenote, consider how the Conservatives have won the past two elections -- in 2008 they painted Stephane Dion as some crazy green radical, and them in 2011 they made Iggy out to be some sinister other. In both cases, they relied on voters not wanting to rock the boat too much, which comes straight out of the playbook the Liberals used for decades.)

So, TL, DR: there's no left to unite, and pretending there is just helps the Conservatives stay in power.
 

maharg

idspispopd
L
* Also, I need to point out that the PC Party wasn't as thoroughly devastated in 1993 as the final results would have you believe. They still got 16% of the vote -- 2.5x more than the NDP -- but because of FPTP, their vote was too inefficiently spread out to show up in the final results. Not that it matters anymore, of course.

From the last 50%+ popular vote win in Canadian federal electoral history in 1984 to 16% in 1993 is about as close to devastation as you can get in a system where parties never entirely die. That double-FPTP has even stronger distortionary effects at the low end of the popular vote really has nothing to do with that.

As to your general argument, I would actually say that if we're to reject a 2 pole spectrum along ideological lines, I think it makes sense to reject a 2 pole spectrum along the lines you propose as well. There's another axis at play, and it also helps explain the Reform<->NDP effect (which is no secret and actually, to some extent, works both ways). Reform and NDP were/are populist parties. Reform's roots in Social Credit and the NDP's in the United Farmers. These kinds of parties have always been very popular in the prairies (and more recently, with the decline of the Liberal brand, in Quebec).

Populist parties are often very anti-establishment, obviously, but in a very distinct way to how you're talking about the PCs being anti-establishment.

This is also, imo, why the rise of Reform coincided with the resurrection and rise of the NDP. Prairie politics went national in a big way after 1993.
 

Parch

Member
It's a never ending pendulum as Canadians decide that they're no longer happy with the current government and just alternate. That battle for the middle isn't between extremes as some people want to believe.

The Liberals try to make the PC look like batshit insane Republicans and the Conservatives try to make the Liberals look like tree hugging hippies. In reality they're not that different and both reflect the middle, and Canadians seem happy enough living in the middle.

There is a need for fringe parties and they do provide the protest vote. Who knows. Maybe it's Green that will be the next novelty act.
 

Parch

Member
The west kinda gets lumped in with Quebec as being radical but that's not really the case. The west is consistent in their vote, and on election night there is no need to stay up late because the west really doesn't matter. It's Ontario and Quebec that decide elections. Quebec is a much bigger factor in federal election results than the west could ever dream to be.
 
I'll be honest this current session of Parliament needs to end. If they're coming to the point of cursing at each other in the house we need to send 'em all to their corners to cool off.

As for a rise in the police-reported homicide rate, I think further investigation has to be done before we go pouncing on Harper's policies as the root cause, or of his policy response as the correct approach.

I'm all for pouncing...but let's all get our facts straight first. I'm really sick and tired of watching the opposition step up only to realize they don't really have much of a leg to stand on.
 

maharg

idspispopd
Crossing the aisle while business is still ongoing to berate the opposite house leader definitely seems like a pretty taboo thing to do. Calling it a near-brawl is a bit silly, though. Peter MacKay crossing over to drag him back is hilarious.
 

firehawk12

Subete no aware
Crossing the aisle while business is still ongoing to berate the opposite house leader definitely seems like a pretty taboo thing to do. Calling it a near-brawl is a bit silly, though. Peter MacKay crossing over to drag him back is hilarious.
They heckle each other all the time though! lol

But, I suppose that's how these things are here.
 

Mission

Member
Heckling directly is out of order. General statements like "shame" or "hear hear" are considered to be non-directional. If you want to address an issue with somebody else's behaviour you express your opinion to the speaker and let them rule on the matter.

Crossing the aisle is unheard of.
 

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
There's a reason the benches on both sides are at least (?)2 sword lengths from the Clerk's table. People aren't meant to get physical in Parliament.

Heckling directly is out of order. General statements like "shame" or "hear hear" are considered to be non-directional. If you want to address an issue with somebody else's behaviour you express your opinion to the speaker and let them rule on the matter.

Crossing the aisle is unheard of.

All communication in the house must go through the speaker. Even using the word "you", like "You're a great guy!" to directly address a member is a violation of house rules.
 

maharg

idspispopd
That said, I'd be for a closer, British-style house complete with despatch box. The British commons can't even seat all members at once.
 

firehawk12

Subete no aware
What's the parliamentary arrangement for other Commonwealth countries? I'm curious...
Australia:
7F9qJl.jpg

NZ:
4ylAA.jpg


Physically, it seems like it's mostly cribbed from the British style. Australia's has the advantage of being in a more modern building at least.
 

maharg

idspispopd
This is the British House:
House_of_Commons.jpg


Note the lack of lecterns or individual seating. If all the MPs were there at once like 100 of them wouldn't have seats, they have to stand by the entrances. When they talk, they go up to the despatch box facing the opposing side of the house. The government and the front bench of the official opposition sit right next to the despatch box for easy access.

Makes for a much more exciting process.
 

firehawk12

Subete no aware

gabbo

Member
I guess the story about Chinese labourers being tricked into crappy paying jobs has been updated:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2012/12/10/chinese-miner-investigation.html

And there's a small part of me that immediately goes back to how Chinese labourers were brought in to build the railroads but were given no rights. It's so weird to see history repeat a hundred years later.

You even have Kenney defending the program as if nothing is wrong. lol

Harper's CPC way of doing things: it's not wrong until we decide it is, and then it's been an opposition position for ages, and we've worked hard to get rid of it.
 

firehawk12

Subete no aware
Harper's CPC way of doing things: it's not wrong until we decide it is, and then it's been an opposition position for ages, and we've worked hard to get rid of it.

A lot of these issues seem to be adding up to a mess. I just don't think the average Canadian cares about the flip flopping on the oil sands or how Chinese miners are being exploited as modern indentured servants.
 

Dyno

Member
I bet you Harper did it but didn't want to. He was getting the reputation for being a protectionist, shutting down these kind of deals for years. At the same time he has claimed that "Canada is open for business" and he wants better trade deals with China, maybe even something to do with all that bitumen coming out of Alberta.

So he did the deed. He double-bagged China and did the business.
 
I'm slightly saddened. They sure were awesome jets.

Really? They sound like they're going to continue to be vastly over budget and under perform.

If one wishes to argue the need for Canada to have combat aircraft, we would be better served by UAVs for ground-support and fewer dual-engined interceptors/multi-role fighters, such as the Silent Eagle, Typhoon, Super Hornet, etc.
 
Finally. That thing would have haunted us till the end of times.

We really don't need F-35.

Why we don't just upgrade to the Super Hornet is beyond me... The plane meets or exceeds our needs, we have all kinds of training and infrastructure that would directly or indirectly transfer to it from the CF-18 program, and they cost about half of what the F-35 looks like it might cost...

...and in the end, they'd be just as effective at turning mud huts into big holes in the ground or waving our dicks as Russian and Chinese long range survey aircraft (aka bombers) as an F-35 would, but with the added benefit of being a twin engined aircraft (can't sell that too strongly for defense in the North, where adverse weather takes a toll on these engines)... Lastly, I don't know why the Americans would get their noses out of joint since Boeing's a US company, joint arms crap be damned...
 

firehawk12

Subete no aware
Eurofighter Typhoon time, I guess?

Speaking of which, I don't know if this is the thread to talk about it, but it looks like we're getting US style copyright lawsuits in Canada now.

Teksavvy was asked via court order to hand over information related to several thousand IPs due to piracy-related crimes. No one know how this will turn out at the moment, but I think this is one of the first major cases to have hit Canada in recent years, if ever.
 

maharg

idspispopd
Eurofighter Typhoon time, I guess?

Speaking of which, I don't know if this is the thread to talk about it, but it looks like we're getting US style copyright lawsuits in Canada now.

Teksavvy was asked via court order to hand over information related to several thousand IPs due to piracy-related crimes. No one know how this will turn out at the moment, but I think this is one of the first major cases to have hit Canada in recent years, if ever.

You can thank our Strong Stable Conservative Majority for harmonizing our copyright law with the DMCA.
 

firehawk12

Subete no aware
You can thank our Strong Stable Conservative Majority for harmonizing our copyright law with the DMCA.

Long Live Harper.

That said, if you're still torrenting in 2012, you're almost asking for trouble.

I wonder though - are we still paying a tax on hard drives and phones because of the music industry bullshit?
 

Shambles

Member
Eurofighter Typhoon time, I guess?

Speaking of which, I don't know if this is the thread to talk about it, but it looks like we're getting US style copyright lawsuits in Canada now.

Teksavvy was asked via court order to hand over information related to several thousand IPs due to piracy-related crimes. No one know how this will turn out at the moment, but I think this is one of the first major cases to have hit Canada in recent years, if ever.

FFFFFfffuuuuuu.... Man, this country..... Mini-America indeed.
 
Yea, I'm going to be telling all my friends to avoid torrents from now on, it won't be long until they go after movies that are actually good
 

firehawk12

Subete no aware
So the Harper government finally admits that there are counterfeit parts in the Hercules planes. They're just lucky nothing bad happened in the meantime.
 

firehawk12

Subete no aware
They can't call out China while courting them for investment.
Well, the US basically made it public which is why people were thinking about Canadian procurement in the first place. This is one of those weird cases where they just outright lied but almost knew that they would be caught eventually. Unless there are people working in the government that still think emails are "private". :p
 
So Ontario provincial Liberals will be voting for the next premier this weekend (with the actual convention taking place in a few weeks)...anyone have any thoughts or predictions? I joined the provincial wing so I could vote, but I'm not sure who to vote for. Glen Murray or Eric Hoskins would be my preferred choices, but I don't know if either of them stand a chance of winning.
 

gabbo

Member
So Ontario provincial Liberals will be voting for the next premier this weekend (with the actual convention taking place in a few weeks)...anyone have any thoughts or predictions? I joined the provincial wing so I could vote, but I'm not sure who to vote for. Glen Murray or Eric Hoskins would be my preferred choices, but I don't know if either of them stand a chance of winning.

Wouldn't be against Gerard Kennedy, but haven't voted Liberal since I was 18, so I don't particularly care that much at the moment.
 
So Ontario provincial Liberals will be voting for the next premier this weekend (with the actual convention taking place in a few weeks)...anyone have any thoughts or predictions? I joined the provincial wing so I could vote, but I'm not sure who to vote for. Glen Murray or Eric Hoskins would be my preferred choices, but I don't know if either of them stand a chance of winning.

Well, Glen Murray sure doesn't...

Hoskins has such a resume, but his ambitions are greater than his political experience, and I'm rather confident in saying that he's not someone I trust to actually manage the entire province, particularly given how the Liberals have managed to walk themselves into war with just about everyone.

Kathleen Wynne has a lot of support from insiders (and, surprise surprise, she's running first right now) but Pupatello has a well-run war room (supported by none other than Kinsella himself) and Kennedy has a strong following among some of the big dreamers in the party. My impression is that any one of them would make reasonable candidates who would represent change from the current party leadership and direction.
 
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