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Canada Poligaf - The Wrath of Harperland

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Quebec elections have begun:
proj+Leger+5+mars+2014.png
http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/2014/03/4-mars-2014-sondage-leger-montre-une.html

latest Leger poll has PQ down from the CROPs last poll (meaning that they have peaked)

Election date is slated for April 7th

*Lest not forget that in 2012, pollsters predicted also a PQ majority win but the Liberals (50) managed to have 4 seats fewer than the PQ (54) forcing a minority

the CAQ this time around will lose the most seats. Those seats will go PQ in nationalists ridings and we will have to wait and see where they will go in the Quebec City ridings. Quebec City AM Radio hosts are trying to rally anti-PQ voters to back the Liberals to avoid a PQ majority
 

Azih

Member
This thread's going to get extra crazy for a while, isn't it. :/

Well Marois is crazy... so... yeah. She's such a wedge issue politician. Too bad the wedge she uses is minority rights and diversity (as in she's not for them). And majorities with less than 40% of the vote.... yay Canadian politics.

Edit: 63 is the magic mark?
 
a PQ government in Quebec with a Trudeau in Ottawa in 2015,
history repeats itself

watch Pauline try to hijack the Federal Oct 2015 election by launching a Referendum at the same time
 
I still dont understand why they dont just make it legal and tax the fuck out of it. It would take a big source of money out of gangs and dealers and put it in the hands of the government where they would be able to put it towards more government programs such as improving Healthcare and the Educational system. Making it legal would also have the effect of allowing citizens to buy the drug legally in stores instead of having to weasel around in back-alleyways negotiating with some shady person who you may/may not know. It also removes the risk of tampering because you would be able to expect that it came from a safe source.

There is literally zero (or near zero) down sides.

When have Conservatives ever supported something just because it made things safer? Just look at their opposition to safe injection sites. That's a bit more extreme than pot, obviously, but it's the same thing: as far as they're concerned, simply allowing something is the same thing as endorsing it. (Plus is Harper ever decides to follow the Republican playbook a little more and institute private prisons, there's money to be had in jailing people for the silliest of offenses.)
 

Fuzzy

I would bang a hot farmer!
When have Conservatives ever supported something just because it made things safer? Just look at their opposition to safe injection sites. That's a bit more extreme than pot, obviously, but it's the same thing: as far as they're concerned, simply allowing something is the same thing as endorsing it. (Plus is Harper ever decides to follow the Republican playbook a little more and institute private prisons, there's money to be had in jailing people for the silliest of offenses.)
Ever decides? He's already going down that road. Why do you think they closed Kingston Pen and that other prison in QC without any replacements?
 
owner of Quebecor (Sun News, Videotron, TVA and Journal de Montreal) to run as candidate for the separatiste PQ in St-Jerome.

Pierre-Karl Péladeau (yes, Sun News belongs to him)

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/e...5929-pkp-candidat-du-pq-dans-saint-jerome.php

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montr...adeau-to-run-for-pq-in-saint-jérôme-1.2565855
Péladeau is one of Quebec’s most prominent business leaders, having occupied positions including President and CEO of Videotron and CEO of Quebecor, the company founded by his father, Pierre Péladeau.

Péladeau remains on the board of directors at Quebecor.
 

Vamphuntr

Member
The PKP news is probably the most entertaining thing that could happen in this campaign. It's a sad day for democracy but man it will make watching the news so much more fun. Having to watch the same boring lies spewed by the main 3 pathetic party leaders on the new was tiresome to say the least.

Can't wait to read the next op-ed by André Pratte, the two already had a fight through op-eds. It's probably a good time to listen to that Radio X garbage radio station. They were viewing PKP as a messiah since he would be bringing a hockey team to Québec city but were hating on the PQ all the time. Wonder what's happening in the Sun news HQ right now too.

Wonder how the PQ will control their party now. The biggest issue in the party was always that it gathers people under the sovereignty flag but that these people had vastly different political views on economy and social services. The party and Marois almost imploded once when she tried to force the party to vote to give funding for PKP's arena in QC at the National Assembly. I don't think the left wing of the party will like that very much.

So the big choice for Québécois will be to vote for one of the 3 rich 1% controlled party : PKP, Desmarais, or Sirois.
 

Ether_Snake

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This is awesome!

Marois is a very calculating politician with decades of experience, she managed to seize control of her party when it was mired with division against her while the party was relegated to second opposition for the first time in its history (in fact, some who left are now begging to come back to the party and she is telling them to fuck off), managed to lead the PQ to a minority government, and is now heading for a majority after taking all sorts of decisions that journalists said would bring the PQ to its doom. Even Harper's government recently accepted the PQ's demands regarding job-training program recently. The PQ just accepted the reversal of the Endbrige pipeline, which totally fits in the PQ's goals (make Alberta dependent on Quebec). Harper is so freaked out now that he even met Trudeau and Mulcair to tell them not to openly attack the PQ, fearing it will only make the PQ more popular.

She is smart and it is precisely the refusal to recognize this that makes it so easy for her to get her way, she is totally underestimated so people don't see her moves coming.

Marois is about to destroy PKP, her worst enemy. PKP is a former head of a media empire, he was likely (in part) behind in-party divisions that tried to take her down before, because he wanted to take her place and was preparing the field for it. When she came to power she made him president of the Hydro-Quebec counsel, a position without significant power, effectively shutting him up by making him think he is starting to climb the stairs to power, and make him dependent on her. Now that the PQ is heading for a majority, she gives him the chance to become minister, but he had to commit himself openly today to Quebec Sovereignty; don't think that was his choice to make that the main headline, the message is carefully controlled at the PQ! This was done to make sure he can no longer move to another party later if he fails to become the PQ's leader, especially since it means that during the whole campaign the other parties will have attacked him constantly, and even more after when he becomes minister of whatever. He has stocks of his former media empire and she will NOT ask him to get rid of them, she will let the other parties destroy him after the election when in session on this precise issue.

Marois knows very well he won't wait 8 years or more to take his chance to lead the PQ and become prime minister. She knows he will try to outdo her during the next four years, he's too big not to. But he is fucked, she will do with him exactly what she did with Daniel Breton. The parallels are actually quite incredible.

Daniel Breton was a popular pro-environment public figure who attracted a lot of attention before the last election. He was going to spell trouble for the PQ, he was likely to join Quenec Solidaire later on (the third county where QS was most popular was his). Marois proposed him a minister of natural resources post, so he became candidate for the PQ, won, and immediately after she moved him to minister of the parcs (a much less influencial one) after the other parties tries to make a big deal out of the fact that in the past he had made late payments on his rent and was once on unemployment benefits. It was a real joke, she had no reason to react to this, but Marois knew from the start that she would not leave him as minister of natural resources (just look at the direction the party took since election, which is in the opposite direction of what Breton was fighting for). So she basically knew he would become a big player for QS and against the PQ's environmental policies over the following years, so she made him minister, let him be attacked by the other parties over the most petty of issues, demoted him, and now he has nothing left.

Since then Breton is following party line and keeping quiet.

She will do EXACTLY the same with PKP. It's 100% obvious. If the PQ does well Marois will still present herself in four years, if it does poorly another party will win, so no chance for PKP for at least six to eight years minimum. No way in hell would he wait that long and Marois knows it. This is a trick to get votes and then dump him for good and prevent him from ever being an opponent to her. She will take him from up high and make him low and ruin his political chances.

Note that this doesn't mean I approve of all of the PQ's decisions, and certainly don't like PKP and I know what his intentions are. But the above is fact, and you will see it happen word for word over the coming months.

edit: She did the same with the biggest loudmouths in her party; Lisée, Drainville, she gave them all hot potatoes to handle. None of them have a chance of moving up anymore, yet all of them are fighting as the most loyal candidates because they now need her. She is is a "great politician".
 

Vamphuntr

Member
You really think the party would choose Marois over PKP? I'm not convinced. This is the same party that chose Boisclair over Marois in the past. Marois is already 65, in 4 years she will be close to 70. I doubt she'll be there much longer especially in a party with Lisée who is also trying to seize control. PKP is already much more charismatic than her.

I also doubt controlling Péladeau is as easy as controlling Breton. Breton had next to no money for most of his life, all of the reports about him were about how his previous apartments were in pitiful conditions and filled with beer bottles. He even owned rent to some people when he became a minister. He's going to cling to his job as much as he can, if he lasts 2 mandates he'll have a pension for the rest of his life. No way he'll go back to his dump if he can get money easily for life. Péladeau is more powerful and richer than Marois, controlling him won't be easy. The fact he's for Québec independence wasn't the best kept secret in the province, either. I do love the fact that he probably crushed the souls of a bunch of Sun News crazies today. He used them all, haha.

In the PQ you must watch your back all the time as history has shown. All of the people in the party are united around one theme only which is independence. As such, you have a wide variety of people spread out along the left-right scale and it lead to tensions in the past and will once again in the future. The party almost imploded once about PKP's arena in the past too. Now you will have people like Martine Desjardins (left wing, former student leader in the student strike) and PKP (right wing, loves to use lockout to solve issues with his employees) in the same team. Tensions are bound to happen again.

I'm not sure how the Enbridge pipeline means much, she already confirmed she had no say on that matter since it's under federal jurisdiction. She even said this week if we were independent the answer would have been different.

I'm not convinced Pauline Marois is really as smart as you describe her. If she was as smart as you say, the first 6 months of her government would not have been the disaster it was. Her decades of experience should have taught her about not flip flopping on the Taxe Santé. Moreover, a lot of her current comeback is in part thanks to the charte des valeurs and pundits attribute the idea mostly to Lisée who tried to propose the same thing to Bouchard when he was working for him and refused.

We'll have to see in the long run if taking PKP was a smart idea. For now it seems like a double-edge sword to me. It will alienate lefty voters and unions who were traditionally PQ supporters in exchange of getting CAQ voters and votes in the Québec region and being in the good graces of le Conseil du Patronat. FTQ already said today that PKP was one of the worst employers in the province so it can't be good for the PQ on that front.

I'm always open to the idea of our independence and I already said so here. If they can sell it to me in a decent way that is not entirely centered about culture, I can agree with it. The thing is I really don't want Pauline Marois and PKP to be in charge of that country.
 

Ether_Snake

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You really think the party would choose Marois over PKP? I'm not convinced. This is the same party that chose Boisclair over Marois in the past. Marois is already 65, in 4 years she will be close to 70. I doubt she'll be there much longer especially in a party with Lisée who is also trying to seize control. PKP is already much more charismatic than her.

I also doubt controlling Péladeau is as easy as controlling Breton. Breton had next to no money for most of his life, all of the reports about him were about how his previous apartments were in pitiful conditions and filled with beer bottles. He even owned rent to some people when he became a minister. He's going to cling to his job as much as he can, if he lasts 2 mandates he'll have a pension for the rest of his life. No way he'll go back to his dump if he can get money easily for life. Péladeau is more powerful and richer than Marois, controlling him won't be easy. The fact he's for Québec independence wasn't the best kept secret in the province, either. I do love the fact that he probably crushed the souls of a bunch of Sun News crazies today. He used them all, haha.

In the PQ you must watch your back all the time as history has shown. All of the people in the party are united around one theme only which is independence. As such, you have a wide variety of people spread out along the left-right scale and it lead to tensions in the past and will once again in the future. The party almost imploded once about PKP's arena in the past too. Now you will have people like Martine Desjardins (left wing, former student leader in the student strike) and PKP (right wing, loves to use lockout to solve issues with his employees) in the same team. Tensions are bound to happen again.

I'm not sure how the Enbridge pipeline means much, she already confirmed she had no say on that matter since it's under federal jurisdiction. She even said this week if we were independent the answer would have been different.

I'm not convinced Pauline Marois is really as smart as you describe her. If she was as smart as you say, the first 6 months of her government would not have been the disaster it was. Her decades of experience should have taught her about not flip flopping on the Taxe Santé. Moreover, a lot of her current comeback is in part thanks to the charte des valeurs and pundits attribute the idea mostly to Lisée who tried to propose the same thing to Bouchard when he was working for him and refused.

We'll have to see in the long run if taking PKP was a smart idea. For now it seems like a double-edge sword to me. It will alienate lefty voters and unions who were traditionally PQ supporters in exchange of getting CAQ voters and votes in the Québec region and being in the good graces of le Conseil du Patronat. FTQ already said today that PKP was one of the worst employers in the province so it can't be good for the PQ on that front.

I'm always open to the idea of our independence and I already said so here. If they can sell it to me in a decent way that is not entirely centered about culture, I can agree with it. The thing is I really don't want Pauline Marois and PKP to be in charge of that country.

The PQ is heading for a majority, so any claim that X decision was bad can go straight out the window. Marois put Lisée on a plane as soon as she won on purpose (it prevents him from becoming an icon because we never hear about him), and Drainville is handling the charter issue on purpose as well, which is an empty issue made to attract votes and it's working while also making Drainville's future as head of the PQ impossible. She managed to stay as leader of her party while it was tearing itself apart as it was in secondary opposition for the first time in its history and people were sabotaging the party from the inside before leaving for other parties, she held her place and eventually not only won her party support after a purge (a calculated one, again) but then led the PQ to victory, and now everyone is squarely behind her like comrades behind Stalin. That's a 180 degree reversal and you can't pretend it was thanks to some invisible hand or falling down stairs like a boss. And now the PQ is going for a majority.

She would not quit the PQ in four years unless the PQ was doing badly, she would only do so after a defeat. She could theoretically quit after winning again but I cannot imagine PKP becoming head of the PQ by having Marois run during the election. So she is there for at least four years, and then another party wins, or she is there for six to eight years.

I guarantee you, she will purposely make PKP minister of something that puts him squarely in a position of conflict of interest, like "minister of the press and media" or whatever will make him an easy target. He will be down for the count in less than a month following his appointment, and then she will make him minister of paper shredder and his political aspirations will be pretty much done for.

Anyway it won't take long to see if I'm right.
 
Yes, the PQ will have a majority victory won on the backs of minorities based on identity politics but this will doom the YES camp to failure if they ever decide to hold a 3rd Referendum.

Electoral Westminster rules prevail in Elections but the Popular Vote decide Referendums.

o-SONDAGE-REFERENDUM-570.jpg
 

Ether_Snake

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Marois won't hold a referendum, she drums up hype for it every election to rally her base and then throws it in a drawer, she isn't dumb. I guess hiring PKP will win the PQ some CAQ votes and lose some QS votes. I think Breton is the most likely one to lose his seat to QS. Last time it was already tight, I think this time he's done and Mano Massé will win it, which means two women and one man for QS. They could potentially get a fourth one but I feel it's unlikely.
 
Marois decides everything based on opinion polls and trial balloons.

Remember, support for sovereignty only rises through negative vibes from fights with the Federal government.

Support for the movement never comes from positivity within.

Love or Hate Harper, his first election win was the biggest blow to the sovereignty movement. And Harper has opted not to respond and not to play into the souverenist's game and it has worked.

The last big boost for sovereignty was during the Liberal's Ad Scam scandal. The election of Conservatives erased all that because it punished the Liberals and gave Canada a non-Quebecer Premier that is alien to Quebec. The old Trudeau-Chretien headbutting was no longer.
 

Pedrito

Member
The PQ might have fucked up. The latest poll has them tied with the PLQ at 36%. And the PLQ usually does better on election day.

If the PQ doesn't get a majority, there will be major turmoil in the party with all these "stars" who are obviously not on the same wavelength.
 
What's the word on the PLQ leader? Seems idealistic from my very limited knowledge.

Doctor Couillard is a very intelligent, educated guy who is too much of a ''good guy'' which makes him a weaker political figure. Good Guys never win in politics and that is the problem. He is not an ideologue.

He pulls his punches and does't get down and dirty.

Jean Charest was more skilled, combative and witty at holding his own. Dr. Couillard is too much of a technocrat and is uncomfortable with the '''game''
The PQ might have fucked up. The latest poll has them tied with the PLQ at 36%. And the PLQ usually does better on election day.

If the PQ doesn't get a majority, there will be major turmoil in the party with all these "stars" who are obviously not on the same wavelength.
PKP's candidacy is a double edge sword.
The left wing pro-union faction of the PQ may take this move as afront to them, a steer to the right may displease them and turn push support to the more left leaning QS party.

But there are many Right leaning nationalists who would vote for CAQ who would welcome this PKP candidacy and win lots of Right Wing Natioanlitsts over to the PQ.
It may unite left leaning separatists with right wing separatsts if their goal is making a new country before left vs right disagreements.

It also polarizes a bigger wedge between Federalists and Separatists that may untie Federalists all to back the Liberals. Further weakening the CAQ completely
 

Vamphuntr

Member
The issue with Couillard is that he was supposed to represent a major change from Charest and the "old liberal" party. The liberals under Charest were caught in various scandals about corruption. Couillard got thrown into that lot early because of his "friendship" with Arthur Porter. He's also quite weak on the Charte des valeurs front since he worked many years as a doctor in Saudi Arabia. It's hard for him to defend something he completely ignored to make money in Dhahran. He also had a hard time in the last 6 months politically. He fell right over the PQ's trap on the charte des valeurs and had to flip flop a lot over the issue. He also lost an MNA over it which recently told reporters that she would still be in the party if Charest was the leader. He also agreed that eliminating the deficit on the next budget would be impossible and sided with the PQ's stance until the rest of his party explained to him he had to be against it.

He reminds me of Michael Ignatieff a lot. Both were incredibly smart but have issues getting their ideas across.

As for the polls, you have to be careful in QC. As tooclose2call and 308 has shown, even if the PQ trails by 3 points behind the PLQ, the PQ has better chance to win than the PLQ.

The reason is that there is a split among voters. Francophones right now are more inclined to vote PQ than PLQ and in a majority of ridings there's an important francophone majority. While the last poll show them both at 36%, Francophone are 42% for the PQ while only 25% for the PLQ.
 

Ether_Snake

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What's the word on the PLQ leader? Seems idealistic from my very limited knowledge.

His main goal is to open the door to privatized healthcare, that's why he's there, just like CAQ's leader's goal is to privatize Hydro Quebec (some would argue that the PQ heads probably want to do the same secretly, especially someone like PKP unless he comes out strongly against that).
 

Pedrito

Member
There's little doubt the PQ will win but if they don't get a majority, it will be back to square one and they'll be blamed for this waste of time and money. There's no way they can call another election in the next 2-3 years without a major uproar.
 
Couillard is very much another Ignatieff. Book smart but not street smart.

Marois will be kicked out of the PQ if she ends up with another minority. PKP ends up taking her place.

Harper and the Conservatives look like the biggest fools out of all this. Heck, Brian Mulroney still sits on the board of directors at Quebecor
 

Ether_Snake

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I actually have difficulty imagining any party getting a majority for quite some time. PQ could do it, but I think as the campaign goes forward it will be very difficult. I think if it's a minority government, it will be followed by another minority government whenever elections are called after that. QS is likely to make at least a 1% to 3% gain, and CAQ isn't going to disappear either, they'll just change leader (but if it's Deltell... lol, back to square one).

And really, I kind of like it like that, I think we are better off with minority governments for some time. Quebec has been run by majority governments for too long, we need balance for eight years at least, we can afford it. It tends to filter out the opportunists, the ones who can't wait.
 
QS is strictly confined to the Island of Montreal in terms of potential growth. Outside of francophone left leaning areas of the city, QS poses no thteat.

Marois has chosen to steer towards the Right on identity wedge politics, which atracts nationalist voters.

Marois has chosen to steer towards the Right with the candidacy of PKP which attracts nationalist voters.

Marois is trying to erase the existence of the CAQ and gain the monopoly of nationalist voters.

KP has been known to be one of fiercest union busters, lets just how the Left and Right partnership works out of them. Unions have always been on PQ's side in the past, not sure how the marriage with a Union Buster like PKP will work out
 

Vamphuntr

Member
Couillard is very much another Ignatieff. Book smart but not street smart.

Marois will be kicked out of the PQ if she ends up with another minority. PKP ends up taking her place.

Harper and the Conservatives look like the biggest fools out of all this. Heck, Brian Mulroney still sits on the board of directors at Quebecor

Mulroney had to know at this point unless he was a fool. Like I said before it wasn't a well kept secret especially since his ex-wife (was his wife back then) openly supported Marois during the last campaign.

It's funny he's still calling Mulroney his mentor. Norman Spector is outraged on Twitter haha.

Oh the irony. All the wackos at Sun News bashing QC are in fact bringing money to a separatist. Poor Erza Levant.

I actually have difficulty imagining any party getting a majority for quite some time. PQ could do it, but I think as the campaign goes forward it will be very difficult. I think if it's a minority government, it will be followed by another minority government whenever elections are called after that. QS is likely to make at least a 1% to 3% gain, and CAQ isn't going to disappear either, they'll just change leader (but if it's Deltell... lol, back to square one).

And really, I kind of like it like that, I think we are better off with minority governments for some time. Quebec has been run by majority governments for too long, we need balance for eight years at least, we can afford it. It tends to filter out the opportunists, the ones who can't wait.

The main issue with that is that minority governments don't work in our political system. It's even worse when you take into account the current political landscape. To take decisions and to pass laws at the national assembly you need a majority of seats. It's not in parties' interests to cooperate on big bills and projects since another campaign will eventually be launched in a not so far future. Opposition parties must go on the offensive to show they are a viable solution to the current government. If you add the left/right and independence/federalism splits to that you get quite the mess. It's no good if you want the province to start long term development projects since the successive governments can destroy them at any time. Stability is key for long term economic projects or huge change in the governmental system.

This mess leads to perfectly good project like the "Mourrir dans la dignité" bill to get discarded as part of the electoral game. It also leads to lesser known bill and projects to get voted down or quickly discarded to give spotlights to big bill that will attract attentions and voters. More often than not the government has its hands tied in a minority government unless he can link the vote to a confidence vote and take the gamble the opposition will not overthrow it. To take big decisions in our system you need a majority.
 
Sun News bashing Quebec is a part of PKP's strategy to make English Canada seem like Quebec haters. Part of his Media Empire, say bad stuff about English people in the Journal de Montreal, say bad stuff about French people on Sun News
 

Mr.Mike

Member
Canada has a new free trade deal with South Korea.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/stephen-harper-takes-on-ford-over-south-korea-trade-deal-1.2566799

After almost a decade of difficult, on-and-off again talks, Canada and South Korea have agreed to a comprehensive free trade agreement, the first for Canada with an Asian-Pacific nation. Here are some key facts about the deal.

South Korea gross domestic product: $1.1 trillion.
Canada gross domestic product: $1.8 trillion.
Canada-South Korea merchandise trade in 2012: $10.1 billion.
Average South Korea tariffs on Canadian goods: 13.3 per cent.
Average Canadian tariffs on South Korean goods: 4.3 per cent.
Tariff lines to be eliminated by South Korea once deal fully implemented: 98.2 per cent.
Tariff lines to be eliminated by Canada once deal fully implemented: 97.8 per cent.
Tariff lines to be eliminated by South Korea on first day of implementation: 81.9 per cent.
Tariff lines to be eliminated by Canada on first day of implementation: 76.4 per cent.
 
Probably dumb question but... what is so likable about Péladeau? Are people only voting for him because he's rich? To me it doesn't seem he has any redeeming qualities or bright ideas.
 
Couillard is very much another Ignatieff. Book smart but not street smart.

I don't follow QC politics at all, but that sounds more like Dion to me.

The PQ might have fucked up. The latest poll has them tied with the PLQ at 36%. And the PLQ usually does better on election day.

Again, I'm not familiar w/ Quebec politics, but the last few provincial elections nationwide should serve as a reminder of how much to trust polls. There's a big trend towards incumbents having an advantage, and their support being under-reported. Even if the PLQ does do better on election day, the fact that we're not talking about Premiers Smith, Dix or Hudak should serve as a cautionary tale for anyone expecting an upset.
 

Pedrito

Member
Probably dumb question but... what is so likable about Péladeau? Are people only voting for him because he's rich? To me it doesn't seem he has any redeeming qualities or bright ideas.

Nothing.

Well, he's trying to bring a NHL team to Québec City. And he was married to Julie Snyder. And he's rich.

It's not like people usually vote for the best candidate or the one who has their best interest in mind anyway.
 

Mr.Mike

Member
Olivia Chow is resigning as MP tomorrow....

I wonder is late night comedians will miss Rob Ford...

Does anyone know if there's another right wing candidate who will run against Rob Ford? Olivia Chow might be too far across the political spectrum for Rob Ford's voters to turn to her. Hopefully recent events inspire more people to get out and vote in the municipal elections.
 

Ether_Snake

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QS is strictly confined to the Island of Montreal in terms of potential growth. Outside of francophone left leaning areas of the city, QS poses no thteat.

Marois has chosen to steer towards the Right on identity wedge politics, which atracts nationalist voters.

Marois has chosen to steer towards the Right with the candidacy of PKP which attracts nationalist voters.

Marois is trying to erase the existence of the CAQ and gain the monopoly of nationalist voters.

KP has been known to be one of fiercest union busters, lets just how the Left and Right partnership works out of them. Unions have always been on PQ's side in the past, not sure how the marriage with a Union Buster like PKP will work out

Wrong, QS finished second in SMSJ: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques

That was Breton's district. It is possible that Manon Massé would beat him this time if he loses in popularity.

QS will continue to model their campaign on the NDP's (just as they took their colors last time).

The main issue with that is that minority governments don't work in our political system. It's even worse when you take into account the current political landscape. To take decisions and to pass laws at the national assembly you need a majority of seats. It's not in parties' interests to cooperate on big bills and projects since another campaign will eventually be launched in a not so far future. Opposition parties must go on the offensive to show they are a viable solution to the current government. If you add the left/right and independence/federalism splits to that you get quite the mess. It's no good if you want the province to start long term development projects since the successive governments can destroy them at any time. Stability is key for long term economic projects or huge change in the governmental system.

This mess leads to perfectly good project like the "Mourrir dans la dignité" bill to get discarded as part of the electoral game. It also leads to lesser known bill and projects to get voted down or quickly discarded to give spotlights to big bill that will attract attentions and voters. More often than not the government has its hands tied in a minority government unless he can link the vote to a confidence vote and take the gamble the opposition will not overthrow it. To take big decisions in our system you need a majority.

I disagree. "Mourrir dans la dignité" was pushed aside because PLQ knew the elections were coming so they didn't want to give this victory to the PQ. After the election it will be signed because they can't pretend they'll need more time that it wouldn't be signed by the following election.

Minority governments only force the parties to either sit on their asses or compromise, because one way or another they have to win the following elections, and the minority government can blame them for it. People tend to give more support to the ruling government if it is a minority, in order to give it what it needs to push its laws through eventually. This is what we are currently seeing.

If anyone should get a majority though, I hope it will be the PQ. I just don't care about having a referendum in the near future.
 
SMSJ is a Montreal riding, so still stuck in the confines of the Island. Moustache lady almost came close to drunk fat boy.

Oh boy, how can you even go there about blaming the Liberals for the start of the election? are you serious?
 

firehawk12

Subete no aware
Huh, so Olivia Chow is coming back to Toronto politics. I'm guessing the NDP have already moved on from the Layton legacy, so I assume it won't affect them too much. I'm more curious to see how she'll hold up against Ford. The fact that the mayor is an admitted crack smoker seems to be a plus rather than a minus.
 

Azih

Member
Tory and Stintz split the right-wing vote. Chow has less serious opposition on the left/left center

Tory is about as centrist as you can get (Really, who's more centrist that this guy?). And Chow isn't left-center, she's pretty solidly left. Miller was left-center, and Chow is further left than him in perception easy. And as I said the right-wing, left-wing balance is kinda being thrown out of whack because there's such a large block of votes (Ford Nation) that don't make any sense. Stintz is probably going to drop out, she just can't make any sort of a dent against the Ford-Tory-Chow trifecta of heavyweights and it's not that hard for me to imagine some sort of a sad 34-33-33 split that gives Ford the win.

Plus I just don't think it's good for a hard swing from crazy right to left. Crazy right to dull centre/centre-right will settle things down better I think

I like Chow, I just like her way better in Ottawa as a voice for municipalities that's sorely locking federally.
 

gabbo

Member
Tory is about as centrist as you can get (Really, who's more centrist that this guy?). And Chow isn't left-center, she's pretty solidly left. Miller was left-center, and Chow is further left than him in perception easy. And as I said the right-wing, left-wing balance is kinda being thrown out of whack because there's such a large block of votes (Ford Nation) that don't make any sense. Stintz is probably going to drop out, she just can't make any sort of a dent against the Ford-Tory-Chow trifecta of heavyweights and it's not that hard for me to imagine some sort of a sad 34-33-33 split that gives Ford the win.

Plus I just don't think it's good for a hard swing from crazy right to left. Crazy right to dull centre/centre-right will settle things down better I think

I like Chow, I just like her way better in Ottawa as a voice for municipalities that's sorely locking federally.
Tory was far from centrist when he was running provincially from what I remember.
 

Azih

Member
Tory was far from centrist when he was running provincially from what I remember.

He was destroyed by his own party for not being right wing enough and not being relentlessly anti-big city. The stick that Dalton McGuinty used to beat him was funding for religious public schools, an appeal to an immigrant vote and fairness (since we fund Catholic public schools we should fund others as well....) which is not a right wing policy plank AT ALL.

He's an incredibly Red Tory, which means that he's still a jerk, but barely. The polls show how unpolarizing and centrist the guy really is, only 6% of Torontionians would never consider voting for him, compared to about a quarter for Chow and half for Ford.
 
municipally, voters lean more right because they want to avoid property tax hikes,
I wish Olivia all the best, I dont think she will win. Too bad, she is a good person
 
Regardless of left/centre/whatever, people will see Chow as unique on policy issues compared to other candidates. Everyone else will be splitting the vote and she may get the job.
 
Yesterday I was hoping both Tory and Chow do well. I'm not Torontonian so it doesn't affect me either way. But today Chow announced that she's in favour of scrapping the Scarborough subway, so that's a huge plus. Either way, Torontonians are lucky to have such good candidates this time around.
 

Azih

Member
Yesterday I was hoping both Tory and Chow do well. I'm not Torontonian so it doesn't affect me either way. But today Chow announced that she's in favour of scrapping the Scarborough subway, so that's a huge plus. Either way, Torontonians are lucky to have such good candidates this time around.

Yup public opinion has started to swing against it as well as people started realizing that they need to pay extra taxes to get a three(four?) stop subway in a decade. She's really differentiating herself from Ford and taking a strong policy stance which might not be popular. I might be coming around on her.

Edit: THEN AGAIN she's gone wishwashy on the DRL, which Tory is in strong support of. Vote Jolivia Chory guys!
 
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