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[Thick Thighs Save Lives]

State of the market​

February 2025 projected U.S. consumer spending on video game hardware, content and accessories declined 6% when compared to YA, to $4.5B. Spending so far this year is 11% lower than 2024 YTD, at $9.0B. Video game content spending in February fell 4% vs YA, to $4.0B. Subscription growth of 9% was offset by declines in Mobile (-4%) and full game and add-on content across both Console (-11%), and PC, Cloud and Non-Console VR (-4%).

Hardware

February video game hardware spending fell by 25% when compared to a year ago, to $256 million. This is the lowest February total for video game hardware spending since the $184 million reached in February 2020. PlayStation 5 was once again the best-selling hardware platform of the month across both units and dollars. Xbox Series ranked 2nd in both measures.

After each platform’s first 52 months in market, PlayStation 5 unit sales exceed PlayStation 4’s sales pace by 7%, while Xbox Series now trails Xbox One by 19%.

Software

Monster Hunter: Wilds was the best-selling video game of February, instantly becoming the best-selling title of 2025 thus far. Launch month dollar sales of Monster Hunter: Wilds more than doubled the total Monster Hunter: Rise achieved during its March 2021 debut. Monster Hunter: Wilds was the best-selling game of February across each of the PlayStation, Xbox and Steam ecosystems, with Steam accounting for more than half of the title’s total dollar sales.

The launch month dollar sales total Kingdom Come: Deliverance II reached in February 2025 was more than 5 times higher than that the original Kingdom Come: Deliverance achieved during its February 2018 debut.

Mobile

Sensor Tower: Top 10 mobile games by U.S. spend in Feb and chg vs Jan: MONOPOLY GO!, Royal Match, Last War: Survival (+2), Roblox (-1), Candy Crush Saga (-1), Whiteout Survival (+1), Pokémon TCG Pocket (+2), Township (-1), Coin Master (-1) and Pokémon GO (+6).

“The highlight of this month is once again Last War: Survival, which has overtaken Roblox for the first time in monthly US mobile gaming spend,” said Samuel Aune of Sensor Tower. “Last War: Survival saw a 17% increase in in-app purchase revenue month over month.” “Also of note are the two Pokémon games: Pokémon TCG Pocket and Pokémon GO. This is the first time that two games with the same IP (though different publishers) have made this list at the same time, an impressive feat,” said Aune.

Accessories

Accessories spending in February declined by 8% vs YA, to $220M. Year-to-date accessories spending is now 18% behind 2024’s pace. 2025 year-to-date consumer spending on Gamepads has declined 17% compared to a year ago, while Headset/Headphone spending has fallen 25%. The PlayStation Portal base model was again the month’s best-selling accessory in consumer spending. The PS5 Portal Remote Player Midnight Black ranked 3rd overall, while the PS5 DualSense Edge Wireless Controller Midnight Black placed 5th.

Software Charts

Monthly Active User Engagement

Rankings
Units: PS5 > XBS > NSW
Revenue: PS5 > XBS > NSW

Thanks Mat Piscatella & Welfare!

Welfare's estimates:

• PS5: ~300K
• XBS: ~155K
• NSW: ~135K

 

[pulicat]

Steam version of Wilds > PS5+XSX

 

[SweetTooth]

Steam version of Wilds > PS5+XSX

Lol
Like XSX accounted for anything major

Edit:

PS5 domination selling faster than PS4. Impressive feat.

 

[Thick Thighs Save Lives]

 

[Kacho]

while Xbox Series now trails Xbox One by 19%.

 

[adamsapple]

Steam version of Wilds > PS5+XSX

Yeah, for some reason Capcom's PC sales are through the roof. All 3 primary consoles combined sold less than PC last earnings.

Capcom has sold more units on PC in the first half of FY25 than on Nintendo Switch, PlayStation and Xbox combined

Capcom has shared its sales for the first half of FY25, and it appears that the big winner here was the PC platform.

www.dsogaming.com

54% of them were on PC, whereas 40% were on consoles. Again, the console percentage includes all main three consoles.

 

[jm89]

Xbox Series now trails Xbox One by 19%

It dropped by 1% was 18% earlier in the year.

 

[Kacho]

with Steam accounting for more than half of the title’s total dollar sales.

PC is a beast. God damn.

 

[pulicat]

Lol
Like XSX accounted for anything major

Edit:

PS5 domination selling faster than PS4. Impressive feat.

MH Wilds on Steam > MH Rise on Switch > MH Wilds on PS5+XSX

 

[Synastry]

Man Nintendo better hurry and get that switch 2 out here cause now even a dead platform is out selling that old switch in units.

 

[Kacho]

 

[RetroGamingUK]

After each platform’s first 52 months in market, PlayStation 5 unit sales exceed PlayStation 4’s sales pace by 7%, while Xbox Series now trails Xbox One by 19%.

Oof, in their one remaining “good” market too.

By the end of the gen it’ll be more like 50%, Series lifetime sales will only reach about half of Xbone’s 60 million globally.

 

[UchihaMadara]

 

[Scrawnton]

If Switch failed to pass 161m it's because Nintendo seems to be doing a great job at trying to bury it the moment Switch 2 was announced... that's a mistake, imo.

 

[Horseganador]

Well, it's been normal in the US for years, with PS5 dominating sales and selling twice as much as Xbox.

 

[Thick Thighs Save Lives]

I've added Welfare's estimates to the OP.

 

[ShaiKhulud1989]

So PS5 is basically more than XS+Switch. Wild.

It's understandable that Switch is slowly dwindling after the reveal of Switch 2, but Xbox is being Xbox, I guess.

 

[Mownoc]

Monster hunter is sure struggling on consoles!

 

[Woopah]

Astrobot, Spiderman and Helldivers have become great evergreens. Not bad for Civ or Yakuza.

I was surprised to see so many Take 2 games in the chart this explains it.

If Switch failed to pass 161m it's because Nintendo seems to be doing a great job at trying to bury it the moment Switch 2 was announced... that's a mistake, imo.

Their focus will be on the Switch 2 now, I don't think they care too much about the 161m record.

 

[ShaiKhulud1989]

Not bad for Civ or Yakuza.

For a cluttered mess that Civ 7 is, I'd say they are doing wonderfully on brand recognition alone.

 

[BennyBlanco]

I’m so sorry rofif

 

[Deerock71]

If Switch failed to pass 161m it's because Nintendo seems to be doing a great job at trying to bury it the moment Switch 2 was announced... that's a mistake, imo.

Never a single price cut. I've always wanted it to take the crown, but the PS2 was like...99 bucks at the end. So an argument can be made that the final sales number may not be as important as the cash flow the Switch is bringing in.

 

[GHG]

I’m so sorry rofif

Why doesn't he just give the full platform splits for the title?

 

[BennyBlanco]

Bluecry is the Xbox of social media platforms. Guy is posting this to the sound of a cricket riding a tumbleweed. 5 likes? 2 reposts? This thread has more activity. Very, very sad.

 

[ShaiKhulud1989]

Why doesn't he just give the full platform splits for the title?

Half of dollar sales is kinda misleading, considering that 95% of console sales were on PS5 (if leaked World data is anything to go by after shaving 19% for Xbox). It's basically all of PCs vs PS5.

 

[BennyBlanco]

Why doesn't he just give the full platform splits for the title?

Who knows why he posts like he’s the fuckin riddler. I guess his bosses want people to buy their 10k a year subscriptions. I’m kinda surprised that none of the autists at installbase ponied up for it and post the full results.

 

[tTHANOSs]

Astro Bot has managed to stay in the top 20 charts every month since it's release in September. I imagine it will drop out of it for March. But still nice to see!

 

[LordOcidax]

If Switch failed to pass 161m it's because Nintendo seems to be doing a great job at trying to bury it the moment Switch 2 was announced... that's a mistake, imo.

Never announcing the Switch 2 until Switch 1 reaches 161 million was a better idea?

 

[Scrawnton]

Never announcing the Switch 2 until Switch 1 reaches 161 million was a better idea?

No, but pretending Switch 1 doesn't exist anymore and not having a February Direct for new Switch games and instead just going radio silent mode isn't what they should be doing if they want Switch 1 to push back 161m.

Switch 2 will definitely be huge, but Nintendo is doing nothing to show people who aren't ready or able to move on to Switch 2 yet that they have a solid pipeline for Switch 1 owners this year. Outside of MP4 and Pokemon, is there anything coming to Switch 1? If there is, Nintendo sure as heck isn't hyping or announcing it.

 

[nial]

Who knows why he posts like he’s the fuckin riddler. I guess his bosses want people to buy their 10k a year subscriptions. I’m kinda surprised that none of the autists at installbase ponied up for it and post the full results.

Those guys would make that info only available for, like, registered accounts with 1K posts or some dumb shit like that, anyway.

 

[LordOcidax]

No, but pretending Switch 1 doesn't exist anymore and not having a February Direct for new Switch games and instead just going radio silent mode isn't what they should be doing if they want Switch 1 to push back 161m.

Switch 2 will definitely be huge, but Nintendo is doing nothing to show people who aren't ready or able to move on to Switch 2 yet that they have a solid pipeline for Switch 1 owners this year. Outside of MP4 and Pokemon, is there anything coming to Switch 1? If there is, Nintendo sure as heck isn't hyping or announcing it.

After the Switch 2 was announced, no new game is going to sell the Switch 1 anymore, that sales that the Switch 1 is having right now is because the huge catalog and is going to surpass the 160M because is going to receive a price cut and is going to be really cheap, no because the new games.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

Oof, in their one remaining “good” market too.

By the end of the gen it’ll be more like 50%, Series lifetime sales will only reach about half of Xbone’s 60 million globally.

Sony is in a really good position, it's also a precarious one. I think it's pretty clear that no matter what happens now they're going to expand their market share this generation against the last one. That boat has left the harbor.

The question is by how much and with how much damage to the Xbox brand. My guess is when all is said and done the XSX/S will have sold between 25-35 million units, with a stretch goal of 40 million.

I don't think that will be enough for Microsoft to warrant a successor.

If that is the case Sony needs to think about their next steps.

February 5th 2023

Only a handful of major game franchises and the vast majority of them aren't ready for prime time and won't be until 2025 or 2024 at the earliest.

GTA6
Red Dead 3
Witcher 4

Even the ones they bought aren't anywhere close with Elders Scrolls 6

CoD is pretty annual which is why they were the target. Even if it isn't exclusive within the next 10 years, being able to put it on GamePass day 1 pretty much shifts the narrative. If you haven't bought a next-gen system yet and you were a CoD player and throw down 70 dollars a year on CoD, why not get an Xbox and throw down 120 dollars a year and get CoD and everything else for free?

Microsoft realizes that they can't play catch up for the next 2 years straight and by then a deal for GTA6 or even Red Dead would be entirely too expensive. Witcher 4 probably couldn't change the narrative as it'll be too little too late.

Sony realizes that it's already grabbed the momentum for mindshare for the rest of the year and by doing so the rest of the generation.

We kind of assume a base level of Xbox sales, but there really isn't any guarantee of future sales. Most would assume the X Series would sell at minimum 40 million units. Think we can all agree on that, right? What happens if 40 million turns into 30-35 million? After selling 20 million units in the first two years, if they only sell 5-7 million units this year, I think that becomes more and more possible.

https://www.neogaf.com/threads/microsoft-activision-deal-approval-watch-ot-ms-abk-close.1641775/post-267628075

February 22nd 2023

This will be the lowest selling Xbox hardware since the OG Xbox. If there is a next generation Xbox it has a very good chance of selling less than the OG Xbox.

I believe the XS will end up around 35 million units. But there is a very real possibility it will fall off around 30 million.

This holiday season is going to tell us a lot about the rest of the cycle. Sony has a new sku, what could be a top 3 selling game for the remainder of the year between CoD and Super Mario. It's certainly going to be a big seller.

October 21st 2023

If the Xbox Series sold 21 million units in its first 31 months, does anyone expect it to double that with its next 31 months?

It's already in decline and a pretty sharp one at that. With PS5 Pro and Switch 2, I expect that decline to be precipitous.

I don't expect it to have a life cycle that's significantly longer than 6 years, so is the final 10 months of the XBS life going to make up the difference in the decline experienced during the 31 months since the graph we saw?

No, it's not. 40 million is a pipe dream at this point, even with 15 percent decreases year after year. The reality is the drop off is going to be significant in 2024 and even more significant in 2025.

They weren't able to sellout even after dropping the price to 400 dollars and now the price has largely returned to previous msrp.

The math doesn't add up to 40 million units and honestly, I'll be surprised if they hit 35 million. Even with an extended life cycle, the drop off is still going to be there and there is a limit to how much they can drop the price and a limit to how effective the price drops will be.

January 8th 2024

 

[BigBeauford]

KCD2 let's fucking gooooooo

 

[Killjoy-NL]

So, Avowed:
#8 best-selling on Xbox
#6 MAU on Xbox
Not even charting for MAU on Steam

I can see why there are no firm metrics to be shared.

Also, good performance for MHW and KCD2.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

So, Avowed:
#8 best-selling on Xbox
#6 MAU on Xbox
Not even charting for MAU on Steam

I can see why there are no firm metrics to be shared.

Also, good performance for MHW and KCD2.

Microsoft simply can not justify the budgets of these AAA games moving forward. I think another shoe is going to drop even with their multiplatform strategy.

 

[Kacho]

Bluecry is the Xbox of social media platforms. Guy is posting this to the sound of a cricket riding a tumbleweed. 5 likes? 2 reposts? This thread has more activity. Very, very sad.

He's completely captured by his ideology unfortunately. On Twitter he had loads of people blocked even though they never interacted with him.

 

[Killjoy-NL]

Microsoft simply can not justify the budgets of these AAA games moving forward. I think another shoe is going to drop even with their multiplatform strategy.

True.

Obsidian's statement about aiming for 'mild successes' makes sense with data like this and it can only lead to overall lower quality output long-term for Xbox 1st party output.

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

Been pretty disappointed with MHW, success is undeserved imho

 

[yogaflame]

From that 300,000 Ps5 sales, I'm just curious how many are Ps5 pro.

 

[mckmas8808]

If Switch failed to pass 161m it's because Nintendo seems to be doing a great job at trying to bury it the moment Switch 2 was announced... that's a mistake, imo.

Is it a mistake though?

Never a single price cut. I've always wanted it to take the crown, but the PS2 was like...99 bucks at the end. So an argument can be made that the final sales number may not be as important as the cash flow the Switch is bringing in.

The bolded is true. And the same will end up being said for the PS5 in a few years. The prices of these consoles aren't ever going to be PS2 level ever again, so people do well to remember that when you compare the unit sales of current and future consoles.

Astro Bot has managed to stay in the top 20 charts every month since it's release in September. I imagine it will drop out of it for March. But still nice to see!

6 months straight!!!

February 5th 2023


February 22nd 2023


October 21st 2023



January 8th 2024

Great job on your ability to see where things were headed with Xbox hardware. But,..........I'm not sure what you mean with "another shoe is going to drop" outside of their games headed to PS5 and Switch 2. What else is there?

 

[Killjoy-NL]

Great job on your ability to see where things were headed with Xbox hardware. But,..........I'm not sure what you mean with "another shoe is going to drop" outside of their games headed to PS5 and Switch 2. What else is there?

Probably studio closures or lay-offs.

 

[mayham2199]

Great job on your ability to see where things were headed with Xbox hardware. But,..........I'm not sure what you mean with "another shoe is going to drop" outside of their games headed to PS5 and Switch 2. What else is there?

Closing more studios or more changes to GP are the only things I could see happening.

 

[thicc_girls_are_teh_best]

Steam version of Wilds > PS5+XSX

Well it's 140+ million install base vs ~ 75 million + ~ 30 million, also keeping in mind Xbox B2P market has heavily eroded for anything that isn't the biggest, safest Western AAA titles or occasional AA surprise hit. So can't say I'm surprised.

Going with 55% Steam, 35% PS5, 10% Xbox S/X for the US sales. Seems reasonable.

No, but pretending Switch 1 doesn't exist anymore and not having a February Direct for new Switch games and instead just going radio silent mode isn't what they should be doing if they want Switch 1 to push back 161m.

Switch 2 will definitely be huge, but Nintendo is doing nothing to show people who aren't ready or able to move on to Switch 2 yet that they have a solid pipeline for Switch 1 owners this year. Outside of MP4 and Pokemon, is there anything coming to Switch 1? If there is, Nintendo sure as heck isn't hyping or announcing it.

Nintendo's clearly winding down with Switch and they've already sold more than 150 million units, so I think they're more than fine. They aren't pulling a SEGA and ghosting the market for 16 months between consoles; they're ramping up for a Switch 2 reveal in just two weeks and will probably launch it over the summer.

Realistically they aren't gonna keep pushing Switch 1 super-hard right up to the day Switch 2 releases. No platform holder does that.

Astro Bot has managed to stay in the top 20 charts every month since it's release in September. I imagine it will drop out of it for March. But still nice to see!

There's a new bundle coming, so I expect it to be in there for whatever month the bundle shows up. And, I still think it'll be in Top 20 for March, just a feeling.

Who knows why he posts like he’s the fuckin riddler. I guess his bosses want people to buy their 10k a year subscriptions. I’m kinda surprised that none of the autists at installbase ponied up for it and post the full results.

A certain "Aqkua" person did (only phrasing it that way to protect identity in case they want it hidden), that's how we got the NPD sales leaks for 2022.

But there are obvious reasons why people probably don't do as you suggest; they'd get automatically cut off, probably IP-banned from registering any future account, not to mention them breaking TOS.

That and losing out on the benefits is a lot to give up.

 

[nial]

Astro Bot has managed to stay in the top 20 charts every month since it's release in September. I imagine it will drop out of it for March. But still nice to see!

Bundle came out this month, so nope.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

Great job on your ability to see where things were headed with Xbox hardware. But,..........I'm not sure what you mean with "another shoe is going to drop" outside of their games headed to PS5 and Switch 2. What else is there?

The closure of several studios.

 

[Pop]

Jesus Christ be praised

 

[tTHANOSs]

Bundle came out this month, so nope.

Does Circana count game sales in console bundles?

 

[nial]

Does Circana count game sales in console bundles?

Good question. I was sure they did, but I don't really know now. Any idea about that? Woopah

 

[mckmas8808]

The closure of several studios.

Man that's terrible. I think they'll do PS5 day one for every game before they close anymore "big" studios.

 

[Darsxx82]

Probably studio closures or lay-offs.

We've still been waiting for the imminent closure of Ninja Theory for a year... And yet others that weren't in the cards before have closed...

Studios closing?? At a time when supposedly extremely successful publishers are closing studios and canceling projects by the tone, which are questioned or defendeded based on the brand that do It..... It's funny to have this discussion and future predictions.