hoo boy.
I predicted this game would be a ghost town by December and it likely will
write down the exact time and date you made that call.
Wow thread is really slowing down. Only 2 pages since I got off last night
OT had dropped to #12 in the community section when I just logged on, first time I've seen it outside the top 10 since launch.
Ok, so...
I know I'm more dialed in to this stuff than the vast majority of people who post in this thread- why would you (not just Nathan/Boguester, I mean, anyone) care, anyway? If the thread has value to you that's more important than boring metrics about it.
But I pay quite a lot of attention to what's going on here. And first things first... the rates of posting in these threads is not consistent throughout their lifespans- it never has been. The biggest spike in activity comes on Tuesdays; after reset, everyone looks for groups for all of the weekly content, discusses what the Weekly Strike, modifiers, and relevant cheese are, and post strategies and tips as well as little comments about how effective their gun setup will be for X in particular (due to a burn/the strike in question/Ice Breaker being Ice Breaker, etc.). The next biggest spike comes on Friday mornings (in my timezone) with Xur's visits. You get people asking where he is/if he's there, people posting and/or, ahem, stating their feelings about what he has in stock, people asking for advice regarding the best value for their coins, people posting their engram gambling results, and of course the weekly debate about whether or not Xur is a good idea/design element for the game in general. Speaking of which I forgot to buy Sunbreakers. >_< Next biggest spikes have come any time there has been a hotfix/patch, news or information (or non-information) about a patch, or external comments that pertain to a coming patch. Next biggest, for better or worse, have come any time Bungie says or does something perceived to be stupid by the community. Next biggest were on Monday nights where people scrambled to try and get checkpoints/HM cheese before the reset (though I imagine this has been cut down because the cheese is harder now, from the sound of things). Next biggest, the Weekly updates.
If you look at what the thread is doing at any given point in the week you're not getting totally useful information because it's a variable rate. Considering this thread to have been made roughly 14 full days ago, and having 19,618 posts as of my last check, that's an average posting rate of 58.3 posts per hour. Sure, that's less than one post per minute, and it's a bit removed from the multiple posts every minute of the first few OTs. But it's still nuts. Nutso. Nutsola.
Yes, of course, the overall speed of the OTs is slowing down over time, but that's an unavoidable reality for any game; so with that in mind you really need to compare it to other games. Let's do that. Destiny, for whatever reasons you choose to believe... is a pretty big deal on GAF.
I'm sure activity will keep dwindling with all the new releases, but hopefully it picks back up with the DLC.
I'll tell you something, activity will pick up with the DLC, but man it could
use a little dwindle.
This is largest gaming subcommunity I've ever been a part of, by far. It is overwhelming. I consider myself a "low-stress" gamer, and with so many opinions flying around in here, tempers can flare sometimes- even and especially when the game's Community Manager decides to see if it would be valuable to interact with us directly. There are a LOT of people playing this game and talking about it. I try to stay on top of it and be as useful to the community as possible, but I've still missed entire pages of discussion myself.
It seems like we might need a little perspective check. I'm very involved in the GW2 subcommunity here, and consider it (and our guild) active and healthy. That game released over 2 years ago and is on its OT4, creeping toward OT5.
In this thread, Destiny's ninth, 907 unique individual posters have posted at least once. Nine hundred and seven. That's bonkers. That's lunacy. Halo's
twentieth and current OT, the only one to my knowledge that eclipses Destiny's total count, features 413 unique posters. This thread also has more views, at 588,184 to 548,915. 347 posters in here have posted 10 times or more, and the top 100 posters all have at least 48 posts.
Destiny was released 61 days, or 2 months ago, as of today.
Here are some other examples of games you may have heard of and their OTs on GAF:
Dota 2 |OT7| What the fuck have they done (released in July 2013)
League of Legends |OT8| Goodbye, Promos (released in Oct. 2009)
World of Warcraft |OT6| This wolf still has teeth (released Nov. 2004)
Pokémon XY |OT4| Don't Bank On It (released Oct. 2013)
Team Fortress 2 |OT4| Official Halo Thread of Polearms and High Fashion (released Oct. 2007)
Dark Souls |OT5| Definitely better than the sequel (released Oct. 2011)
Minecraft |OT3| Dig Your Way to Fortune! Build Your Way to Glory! (released... well, whatever)
No Call of Duty OT on GAF has ever advanced past the first, although MW2 did have the equivalent of an OT2 as it was for whatever reason allowed to go to 342 pages.
Feel free to choose your preferred explanation as to why these numbers "shouldn't count":
a. it wouldn't be as active if there weren't so many problems to complain about
b. every post is just looking for groups/getting raid checkpoints and it wouldn't be active at all if there was matchmaking
c. the game is too casual, getting exotics is too easy and the Crucible is just cheap no-skill multikills and it keeps the game full of newbs
d. the game is too hardcore, only people who love the ridiculous grind are here and they post a ton and skew the numbers
Probably missed some.
Hopefully you already get what I'm driving at, but if not: in terms of what the industry cares about, Destiny isn't a "failure" or "struggling" or a "mild success." It is a
phenomenon on GAF, and as we cruise leisurely into OT10, the only thing keeping it from being the absolute #1 most active, fastest-moving and populous subcommunity here is the flagship franchise developed by the same studio. Seriously. I checked:
It's your prerogative to decide why Destiny has been successful and popular here. You don't have to believe my interpretation ("for all its problems, this game is REALLY FUCKING GOOD"), and I hope everyone
does form their own conclusions about it. But more important than worrying about how fast the thread is moving or whether or not Destiny will have 6 players left by January is this: decide what you want your role to be in whatever eventual community results.
Maybe OT10 will be the absolute last Destiny thread on GAF, ever. It's possible. That should have
no effect on whether or not it's somewhere you want to be. Are you having fun playing, and particularly playing with GAF comrades? Then stick around. I guarantee you others will do the same. If not? God, please don't do another daily or pick up another Spirit Bloom. Return the game (if you weren't unfortunate enough to buy it digitally :<). Spend your time doing things you enjoy.
Destiny isn't shaping up to be a ghost town. It's shaping up to be the second-biggest city in all NeoGAF country. But even if it does turn into a ghost town, I'll be there to put on a sheriff badge. Because while our problems with the game do matter, and much criticism is incredibly justified, the
fact that we're talking about it at all is a win, full-stop.
Yes, there are annoying fucking glitches that need to be fixed.
Yes, it's easy to lapse into tedious repetition if you want to max out your characters.
Yes, changes to balance and itemization could improve the game.
Yes, the game is starving for new content.
None of that comes close to "we don't really care what's wrong with it; we're done talking about it."
TL;DR: if Bungie pops its head onto the gaming community forum and sees
this:
They aren't thinking "I can't believe how bad we fucked this up, we're losing players left and right, we have to make it up to them somehow" no matter how much you might want that to be the case.
They're thinking "holy fuck, does anyone know how to liquefy cash because I want to bathe in it."
I hope and believe the game will improve dramatically from here on out. I really do. But the sooner you adjust your perspective to what's really going on here and decide what that means to you, the more fun you'll have.
So... you guys talked me into the new OT title. It's gonna be Destiny |OT10| Working As Intended. But I might mean it just a shade differently than you do.