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Final Bets - Will Switch Outsell PS2?

Final bets - will the Switch outsell PS2?


  • Total voters
    189
  • This poll will close: .

LakeOf9

Member
GAF famously predicted how Switch would do on the market incredibly accurately, so it's time for the next round.

Currently, this is what the list of top five bestselling game systems of all time looks like:
  1. PlayStation 2: 155 million
  2. Nintendo DS: 154 million
  3. Nintendo Switch: 141 million
  4. Game Boy: 119 million
  5. PlayStation 4: 117 million
Nintendo is forecasting 14 million units sold for the Switch this year, which... brings the Switch tied to the last officially reported numbers for PS2. However, Switch sales are finally starting to slow down, there are very few major games announced for this year, the Switch successor is formally announced... do you think all this causes a slowdown in sales? Or do you think the Switch will end up outselling PS2 in the long run? Remember, even after the Switch 2 is out, the Switch won't stop selling (apparently the 3DS sold 15 million after the Switch was out, because unlike Sony with for example the PS4, Nintendo doesn't immediately discontinue the older system when the new one is out). But if sales slow down to a crawl, then they may end up not matching the numbers anyway.

What do you think?
 

begotten

Member
It will be a fail if it doesn't.

Over 8 years in the market by the time Switch 2 releases and it will still sell considerably for years after.

One of the best handhelds with a bigger modern gaming audience to appeal to.

Switch Lite model to help bolster numbers.

Also benifited from a Global Pandemic.
 
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LakeOf9

Member
No. Sales already fall of a cliff. It will be completely dead after the successor's release.
It sold 15 million last year, is forecasted to sell 14 million this year, is #1 in Japan and Asian markets in every tracking period, routinely is #1 in European markets like Germany, Spain, and France, and even when it is not, it is a healthy #2, and is constantly outselling at least Xbox in NA.

Where exactly did sales "fall off a cliff"?
 

West Texas CEO

GAF's Nicest Lunch Thief and Nosiest Dildo Archeologist
160 million, easily.

Although, the PS2 actually sold closer to 170 million. The 155 number is very conservative.
 

LakeOf9

Member
PS2 sold 160M.

I think Switch will just barely beat that.
The number is not treated as official, because it is not part of any formal report, and because the statement it is part of is riddled with factual and accuracy errors.

The 155 million number is the last verified and trustworthy number most sources use. That said, yes, even 160 million isn't out of question necessarily

This should be population / wealth adjusted, things were very different when PS2 came out.
lol come on
 

reezoo

Member
The number is not treated as official, because it is not part of any formal report, and because the statement it is part of is riddled with factual and accuracy errors.

The 155 million number is the last verified and trustworthy number most sources use. That said, yes, even 160 million isn't out of question necessarily


lol come on
world population in 2000 -> 6 billion
world population now -> 8 billion -> 33% increase
world GDP in 2000 -> 50 trillion $
world GDP now -> 100 trillion $ -> 100% increase
 

Codes 208

Member
Also ignoring high error and defect rates on PS2 (and Switch as well, to be fair)
And remodels/upgrades.

My parents’ place currently has like five ps4’s (two of them mine and my brothers, my stepdad’s launch model and his pro and a broken one i fixed not too long ago that now acts as a garage hub for hulu/netflix)
 
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Gaiff

SBI’s Resident Gaslighter
PS2 sold 160M.

I think Switch will just barely beat that.
Still officially 160M. They need financial reports that confirm the 160M figure.

Also, I'll say it'll barely miss the mark. The Switch 2 will completely kill off the Switch. It won't be like the PlayStation consoles that still sell a bit even following the release of their successors.

It will fall short at about 150-153M.
 

West Texas CEO

GAF's Nicest Lunch Thief and Nosiest Dildo Archeologist
lmao, come on man, this is ridiculous. No need to start damage-controlling. If the Switch eclipses the PS2, it eclipses it. Records are meant to be broken.
But how many Switch Lite units sold tally into the final number?

You see, that's Nintendo fudging the actual sales numbers.

The Switch Lite is its own separate handheld
 
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jshackles

Gentlemen, we can rebuild it. We have the capability to make the world's first enhanced store. Steam will be that store. Better than it was before.
It'll depend on how Switch 2 does backwards compatibility and how Nintendo positions it in the market.

If Switch 2 is fully backwards compatible, they could sell the original Switch as the "budget" model that still plays thousands of games - just not the new ones. If the Switch 2 has no backwards compatibility at all, they'll want to remove it from store shelves along with Switch 1 games.

The PS2 also continued selling incredibly well in places like South America well into the PS3's lifetime, so it's not outside the realm of possibility that Nintendo could do something similar in other markets where people may not have as much disposable income.
 

Lokaum D+

Member
It will be a fail if it doesn't.

Over 8 years in the market by the time Switch 2 releases and it will still sell considerably for years after.

One of the best handhelds with a bigger modern gaming audience to appeal to.

Switch Lite model to help bolster numbers.

Also benifited from a Global Pandemic.
This Up Here GIF by Chord Overstreet
 

jshackles

Gentlemen, we can rebuild it. We have the capability to make the world's first enhanced store. Steam will be that store. Better than it was before.
I traded in my LCD for the OLED does that mean I'm counted twice?
There are eight Switches in my household... I'm helping Nintendo fudge the numbers.
 
It will be a fail if it doesn't.

Over 8 years in the market by the time Switch 2 releases and it will still sell considerably for years after.

One of the best handhelds with a bigger modern gaming audience to appeal to.

Switch Lite model to help bolster numbers.

Also benifited from a Global Pandemic.
The PS2 had DVD - both the Ps2 and Switch each have their reasons for selling a tonne and they both deserve it all.
 

Codes 208

Member
But how many Switch Lite units sold tally into the final number?

You see, that's Nintendo fudging the actual sales numbers.

The Switch Lite is its own separate handheldn
Except that its not? Its a switch as a singular piece of plastic with its display output gutted. But otherwise it functions identically to a switch

Thats like saying the 2ds line doesnt count as part of the 3ds consoles because “they took out the 3d” despite literally being a 3ds without 3d
 
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FireFly

Member
But how many Switch Lite units sold tally into the final number?

You see, that's Nintendo fudging the actual sales numbers.

The Switch Lite is its own separate handheld
If you're exclusively a handheld user, then you would likely buy a Switch at some point, even if the Lite didn't exist. And before the Lite came along there were people buying the Switch for this purpose. So I don't think there is any clean per-market comparison you can make. But as a company all Nintendo care about is that they built a platform that can do these kinds of numbers.
 
At this point, it'll be close. But yeah, probably. Especially if they do like a Mini or a Micro or something. Or a price drop on the Lite or OG.
 
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But how many Switch Lite units sold tally into the final number?

You see, that's Nintendo fudging the actual sales numbers.

The Switch Lite is its own separate handheld
Ok, so this is what we call a false premise.

Switch Lite is a Switch console, so anything that is a Switch console within the Switch family of devices, is a Switch. A Switch is a Switch is a Switch. Making up arbitrary rules doesn't change the data. Minor functional or cosmetic differences, and a different MSRP than the OG model doesn't stop any of those models from being considered a legitimate sale. Nice try, tho!

Your argument is weak from another angle as well, because even if you wanted to peel the Lite out of the total for some odd reason that doesn't make sense, it's by far the lowest-selling version of the Switch. So doing what you are trying to do doesn't help you very much, if your goal is to somehow argue that Switch sales are lower than they actually are.

A hypothetical PS2 Micro, for example, wouldn't have been excluded from PS2 sales, if it played PS2 games. 🤷‍♂️

Alright, class is over. Go play outside!
 
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Woopah

Member
We know that PS2 is between 159m and 162m, and I expect Switch to finish around there but not for several years yet.
But how many Switch Lite units sold tally into the final number?

You see, that's Nintendo fudging the actual sales numbers.

The Switch Lite is its own separate handheld
Total platform figures always include all models combined.

PS4 total includes the Pro, DS total includes the Lite, Xbox One includes the S and Vita includes the Vita TV.

That's not fudging the numbers, that's how console sales have been calculated for decades.
 

64bitmodels

Reverse groomer.
Price drops always help. Especially when a 7 year old console is still selling at the same price it launched at back in March 2017.
then it doesn't really need a price drop does it?

could've worded that better, but the price is hardly a barrier for anyone wanting to buy a Switch these days.
 

phant0m

Member
It sold 15 million last year, is forecasted to sell 14 million this year, is #1 in Japan and Asian markets in every tracking period, routinely is #1 in European markets like Germany, Spain, and France, and even when it is not, it is a healthy #2, and is constantly outselling at least Xbox in NA.

Where exactly did sales "fall off a cliff"?
Pretty sure it still outsells XSX lol
 

RoboFu

One of the green rats
It doesn't matter it has come close enough at this point with no price decrease EVER compared to the ps2's $99 price point for the last few years of its life driving sells that its a clear winner above t he ps2 in every way. ( sales wise )
 
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