Support NeoGAF

[Skittzo0413]

It would be less than PS4, and i think less than 3DS too. It would beat One and easily beat WiiU, so i don't know what to say. I don't think it's conservative, but it's also nowhere near a big success.

It seems like a fairly safe guess with those comparisons I'd say.

 

[MaximumSpider]

Seems pretty reasonable especially if it gets a price drop between March and then

 

[El Topo]

You are aware GAF is a minority right?

For that matter mainstream media reception in Germany has been pretty harsh.
Articles in German:
Stern
Spiegel
Bild
FAZ
Zeit (not really negative)

 

[onemanasylum]

I didn't realize I had to list out every million-plus selling 3DS game, I kinda thought the point was implied lol

So, show me whats been announced? The handheld market is shrinking fast, people play on phones these days. A console portable is an ever shrinking market. You mentioned Pokemon and nothing else as to indicate that would guarantee success, maybe you need to form posts better.

 

[TS-08]

Dear, it's 2017 already.
3 years

Through 2020.

 

[Twenty7KVN]

If they can do more power to them.

 

[randomengine]

Don't judge the Switch by initial sales. The sales will accelerate when Mario hits, Pokémon hits, price drops etc.

 

[StoopKid]

Other forecasts by them:
PS4 (2020): 100 mill.
Xbox One (2020): 100 mill.

How sway?!

 

[Silvard]

Are the people who are projecting Switch sales based on 3DS performance forgetting that the 3DS had to be price cut to nearly half of what the Switch will retail for?

 

[Feral Gingy]

It's possible if they release a cheaper handheld only model or/and a more powerful home console only model.

Otherwise I'll give it 20M

 

[Dark Cloud]

Go to a mall and look around you at the hub of people and tell me after going there 4 days of the week for a few months how many people you even see playing phone games

This isn't a phone.

The hybrid gimmick is only attractive to a segment of users though when they have other ways to play games on the go. Many people probably won't even detach their units from the dock ever as opposed to just playing games traditionally.

Handhelds especially in the west are not generally supported all that well, which means the handheld angle is hit or miss

You never know and it'll have Nintendos handheld games and console games combined on one system. Also, Japan loves their handhelds. There can be sales drops and revisions by then too.

 

[kswiston]

Not to mention if this thing gets off to a similar start as the 3DS, it will absolutely not still be $300 this holiday even.

Well, 3DS was $180 by the first fall. Even with a price drop in the same time frame, Switch will be significantly more.

Edit: or was it $170?

 

[Hellsing321]

Even 10 million by 2020 seems impossible. The reaction on GAF is what, 90-95% fiercely negative? You keep seeing people over and over say they are cancelling their preorders even. No way the first day will sell through with all those cancellations either at this point honestly.

1-1.5 mil of the initial 2 million day one sold out is a safe bet yeah?

It'll easily sell 10 million in Japan alone by 2020.

 

[Tankard]

Maybe half that is what i expect.

 

[Dee Dah Dave]

40 - 50 million would be around my guess too. Providing they get the 3DS crowd on board.

 

[onemanasylum]

People forgetting switch is a console first and will be a lot more expensive then 3ds.

 

[opricnik]

LOL. Never, ever take a GAF reaction and even try to extrapolate that to the market at large. GAF is a highly critical enthusiasts' forum with people who care about things like how the reveal presentation was structured. The general mainstream audience don't even watch such presentations, but rather watch the youtube videos of the individual games and of the hardware reveal (the Nintendo Switch reveal trailer is already north of 25 million, and probably north of 30 million when you combine all nintendo youtube accounts). GAF has been negative about the Wii as well, so you see we are not indicative of how systems will play out.

The Switch has one very important thing going for it: no one thinks it is an add-on to the Wii. Just by that distinction from the WiiU, it will do quite a bit better. I doubt they will manage to reach 40 million in less than 4 years, but more than 10 million is practically a given already.

General audience dont give F bout nintendo products anymore if its not on their phone.

lol at people who thinks only reason Wii U failed was Marketing /Confusion.

Nah son its not the major reason Wii U failed.

 

[Muzicfreq]

This isn't a phone.



You never know and it'll have Nintendos handheld games and console games combined on one system. Also, Japan loves their handhelds.

Sure but how many will you see sit and play a game?

 

[Ninja Dom]

Including Japan, why not?

 

[VendettaRed07]

Multiple form factors and variations is a necessity if they want to hit that.

Most people I know that have a 3DS don't just have one. I have 4 for crying out loud. I just don't see them keeping up pace with 3DS without doing that or selling multiple systems to the same people.

There going to need a switch mini, a switch XL, a dock only switch, a fire emblem/zelda themed colored switch. All that shit. etc.

 

[Yukinari]

The further details about their online service and prices of the accessories are whats gonna make the number shrink probably.

Not to mention if they keep doing questionable moves like having Fire Emblem Warriors be on Switch and New 3DS.

 

[opricnik]

40 - 50 million would be around my guess too. Providing they get the 3DS crowd on board.

By releasing a 300$ console with online paid and 60$ games (and less battery charge,ridic accessory prices?)

Yeah sure 3DS Crowd will jump right in and making it even pass PS4 sales in 3 years.

 

[orthodoxy1095]

I'm surprised to see people saying that's conservative. That seems like a possibly attainable goal if they price-cut smartly and work hard on third party relations.

But conservative? Nah.

 

[Elandyll]

13/millon units every year.

Um, yeah. Good luck with that


WiiU's LTD is 13 million

Actually 10.6m/yr on average (if they indeed mean through 2020, as the text implies, aka 3yrs+9 months, or 45 months of sales).

High if compared to WiiU, but the hope is that the WiiU was a low point and not the new normal obviously.

 

[Guymelef]

People forgetting switch is a console first and will be a lot more expensive then 3ds.

For some reason there is a current of thought that people who didn't spent $250 on 3DS will spend $300 on this.

 

[randomengine]

Nintendo can't win with folks here.

"Wii will fail"

Wii outsells Xbox 360 and PS3.

"Wii sucks"

Wii actually has many good games.

"Nothing on the Wii was worth playing."

 

[Stiflers Mom]

I am extremely skeptical of everything said and done last week on the N event.
But, like the 3DS und unlike the Wii U was, this can be repaired.

The Switch itself is a nice and desirable piece of hardware. Lower the price, get a couple of nice games out, and things will look much more good for the platform.

If they make the right changes, I'd expect around 30 million sold units at the end of 2020.

40 or more would surprise me.

 

[noshten]

You were one of the parents who bought a cheap 2DS last year with Pokemon Stars Moon for your kids. Switch is actually easier for smaller kids to use than a 3DS, due to the joycons and stand. I would also not underestimate the two controllers that are suitable for kids - for games like Splatoon2, MK8 Deluxe, Super Bombermam, Snipperclips, Skylanders, Fast RMX, LEGO City Undercover, Puyo Puyo Tetris, Sonic Mania, Shovel Knight etc the device and control scheme is a much better value than 3DS at launch.
Lets also not forget the evergreen kid title Minecraft is coming to the Switch this year and will never launch on 3DS/2DS
3DS at launch was a far worse value than Switch at launch for parents - especially without worrying about whether 3D is actually good for young kids

Its no surprise that Parental Controls video is in the top 5 most watched videos in several Nintendo channels.

 

[Guardian Monkey]

It comes down to the games at the end of the day, so unless anyone here has a complete roadmap of the games out for it this is a bit of a crazy estimate. Could be higher could be lower who knows.

 

[Muzicfreq]

People forgetting switch is a console first and will be a lot more expensive then 3ds.

Not only that but backwards compatibility and the fact the online play is free.
Nothing like paying to battle people on pokemon or even trade

 

[killroy87]

So, show me whats been announced? The handheld market is shrinking fast, people play on phones these days. A console portable is an ever shrinking market. You mentioned Pokemon and nothing else as to indicate that would guarantee success, maybe you need to form posts better.

I'm gonna venture a guess and wager nothing I say will change your mind haha, so let's just not

 

[Anth0ny]

I expect 30-40m by the end of the consoles life.

basically somewhere between wii u and 3ds since it'll have pokemon

 

[onemanasylum]

For some reason there is a current of thought that people who didn't spent $250 on 3DS will spend $300 on this.

It's odd, wishful thinking.

 

[Neoweee]

40 - 50 million would be around my guess too. Providing they get the 3DS crowd on board.

How many units did GBA, GB, GBC, DS, and 3DS sell in their first four years? Isn't ~40 Million pretty normal?

 

[Baroquemantic]

As someone who is awful at predictions, I'm going with 30-35 million through 2020.

 

[nubbe]

Switch is going to do 3DS numbers at a minimum

People forget about the Pokemans

 

[Barry Burton]

Well, 3DS was $180 by the first fall. Even with a price drop in the same time frame, Switch will be significantly more.

Edit: or was it $170?

Well, of course. The 3DS wasn't a console.

I'm just saying that the assumption that this thing will bomb because it's $300 at launch is very shortsighted. Whether or not this report factors a price cut in, I don't know; I certainly wouldn't expect it to still be at that price this holiday if it doesn't get off to a good start.

I expect 30-40m by the end of the consoles life.

basically somewhere between wii u and 3ds since it'll have pokemon

Exactly this. That's a totally reasonable expectation, and while this report is definitely on the optimistic end of that, I don't think it's an insane prediction by any means.

 

[phanphare]

I'm surprised to see people saying that's conservative. That seems like a possibly attainable goal if they price-cut smartly and work hard on third party relations.

But conservative? Nah.

I was more taking into consideration hardware iterations as well as price cuts

 

[Dee Dah Dave]

By releasing a 300$ console with online paid and 60$ games (and less battery charge,ridic accessory prices?)

Yeah sure 3DS Crowd will jump right in and making it even pass PS4 sales in 3 years.

No. When the inevitable handheld only SKU arrives at sub $199.

The 3DS is at what, 60 million or so. I see a further recession in that market due to smart devices. So maybe 30 - 40 million there, plus the Wii U core base and whoever else.

Edit - Also, maybe not by 2020. But definitely possible lifetime. eg 5 - 6 years.

 

[schuelma]

Switch is an unprecedented type of system- I don't think anyone can really predict how it will end up, other than some pretty reasonable guesses (more than Wii U, less than DS/Wii).

 

[jonno394]

Yeah sure 3DS Crowd will jump right in and making it even pass PS4 sales in 3 years.

Is anyone saying that?

 

[kswiston]

Actually 10.6m/yr on average (if they indeed mean through 2020, as the text implies, aka 3yrs+9 months, or 45 months of sales).

High if compared to WiiU, but the hope is that the WiiU was a low point and not the new normal obviously.

High compared to every Nintendo home console in that timeframe outside of the Wii. This prediction is obviously assuming that Switch captures the 3DS market with minimal drop off. The question is how realistic is that prediction?

 

[GeorgioCostanzaX]

Even 10 million by 2020 seems impossible. The reaction on GAF is what, 90-95% fiercely negative? You keep seeing people over and over say they are cancelling their preorders even. No way the first day will sell through with all those cancellations either at this point honestly.

1-1.5 mil of the initial 2 million day one sold out is a safe bet yeah?

GAF is not the mainstream. Not saying you're wrong but this could be appealing to families/gamers with kids at least it's very appealing to every family I've talked with.

 

[AcademicSaucer]

I can see it if the 3DS audience moves to Switch with the help of Pokemon and Monster Hunter

 

[Guardian Monkey]

Not only that but backwards compatibility and the fact the online play is free.
Nothing like paying to battle people on pokemon or even trade

The online thing is a bit weird for nintendo. I am wondering if by fall things will be different and online will be free. I dont think we know the whole picture.

 

[Chill Penguin]

Gaf thought the Wii would be a failure too. Nintendo is hard to predict. Switch could fail like the Gamecube or Wii U, but it could also be wildly successful a la GBA, DS, Wii, 3DS.

 

[yyr]

An exclusive Pokemon on the Switch could push 10 million alone.

This.

At the current price point there is little reason to buy the hardware for its own sake.

Software is what could bring the Switch to 40M. Pokemon, and Animal Crossing, and Smash, and only if the new entries are good. Unless they have some new IPs up their sleeve that happen to catch fire, which is possible but far from assured.

They need to be exclusive (NO 3DS version) for this to be possible.

 

[Suburban Thug]

They will be lucky to sell 20 million by 2020, and even that is a stretch. Switch will be another Wii U in my opinion unless Nintendo aggressively cuts the price early on like they did with 3DS. Initial shipment will sell out but holiday season is when we will be able to see just how the market reacts outside of our neogaf bubble.

 

[4Tran]

It seems silly to make any serious estimates on sales performance before the launch of a game console. These sales aren't very strongly correlated to historical trends, so it's just a complete guess at this point in time. Wait six months after launch and we'll have a much better picture of how well it will perform.

What we can expect is that there are enough Nintendo early adopters out there that the Switch should sell very well at launch, and then taper off as this audience is tapped out. What happens after that is going to depend on how well it resonates with the greater market, and that's not possible to predict yet.

 

[guek]

Sure but how many will you see sit and play a game?

I work in a hospital and see people playing on their phones daily and kids with their 3DS a few times a week