Support NeoGAF

[ronaldthump]

My prediction

Switch will sell 11 million - 16 million by 2020

People forget how gamers were burnt on wiiU; that's their devoted console and family base is. And that only managed 13 million.

 

[Calm Mind]

It's $300, going against cheaper, more powerful, systems with FAR larger libraries.

So no, I don't.

Do they have Pokemon, MonHun and whatever Level 5 is cooking up on the horizon though? Let's not forget Animal Crossing and Fire Emblem. I think the number is very conservative.

 

[nubbe]

Yeah, 3DS has the Pokemans and still has sold less than half of NDS sales.

Switch could have the Pokemans and sell half of 3DS sales.

3DS came in the era of smart devices
the DS precedes that was the device people used for their shovelwares

Switch touches a broader audience since it has console like experience and classic handheld.
So there will be a much broader selection of games that either WiiU or 3DS could offer on their own.

Nintendo has also started to market their games on smart devices by giving people access to a lighter version of their games.

Switch future is exceedingly bright

 

[kswiston]

So 20M LTD would cover all Pokemon fans.

Well, I doubt that sort of Attach rate is possible. But assuming 0% drop off for future Pokemon, 30-35M or so LTD is probably sufficient. Less if some pokemon audience drops off.

Mario Kart 8 is at 8M+ on fewer than 14M Wii Us. Pokemon does about double that typically.

 

[GuessMyUserName]

So are people who want console gaming on the go, or who spend 300 for a nintendo console at launch,.

Switch launches in December 2020? o_o wtf I don't know Nintendo's going to last these next four years!!!

 

[Art Teitlebaum]

I can only guess for Euroland but as long the price is €400 for the console plus game, the Switch can't get near the 3DS numbers.
It might perform better than the WiiU but that is not the biggest hurdle to clear of course.

 

[JordanN]

Switch is going to do 3DS numbers at a minimum

People forget about the Pokemans

Gamefreak is bad at 3D.

I can see a Pokemon on Switch would either take forever to develop or it looks like a 3DS game.

 

[DesertFox]

Other forecasts by them in Feb. 2014:
PS4 (2020): 100 mill. (slight edge for ps4 cause of Europe)
Xbox One (2020): 100 mill.

Edit: Added date of report

Well, there it is. Just another tales from my ass.

But seriously, it's really hard to estimate something like this. How will the general public receive it? Will people think it's a really powerful mobile? Or will they think "So I can play my console games without having to use my TV? Isn't that what the WiiU was?"

I realize this concept is vastly different than the WiiU... but marketing is everything. And history has shown that consumers are pretty stupid when it comes to understanding exactly what they are buying.

 

[Dark Cloud]

My prediction

Switch will sell 11 million - 16 million by 2020

People forget how gamers were burnt on wiiU; that's their devoted console and family base is. And that only managed 13 million.

That doesn't make any sense though. I mean you're trying, but if this is Nintendos one system with handheld and console games then there is no comparison.

 

[Shredderi]

? 10.6m /yr average in almost 4 yrs is not better than PS4 in any way, shape or form...

Switch prediction: 40m in 45 months (March 2017 -> December 2020)
PS4 actual: 53.4m in 38 months (Nov 2013 -> Dec 2016)

Saw the edited timeframe in the OP after posting.

 

[onemanasylum]

Switch launches in December 2020? o_o wtf I don't know Nintendo's going to last these next four years!!!

Yeah because that's what I said.....

 

[Reineldinho]

Nope. Not even close. I can bet anyone here. That's how confident I am on the Switch.

 

[LordRaptor]

Gamefreak is bad at 3D.

I can see a Pokemon on Switch would either take forever to develop or it looks like a 3DS game.

Pokemon on an emulator actually looks pretty good

 

[benjammin]

Maybe on gaf, and comment sections, which aren;t really indicative of anything. Case in point gaf reactions to the wii, vita and 3ds.

Twitter and Youtube for example has been positive.

Twitter and YouTube have been all over the board. Reddit has been fairly negative, as have a couple of other forums that I frequent. If Nintendo hopes to sell that many systems in such a short period, they have to do much better than a 50-50 split of positive and negative reactions.

 

[AdmiralMikey]

I'd say this is only likely if Nintendo commits to completely abandoning the 3DS and going all-in on the Switch. They have already said that the Switch is not a successor to the 3DS and thus aren't giving their customers much reason to drop their 3DS to buy a Switch instead.

If the Switch continues to be promoted as the Wii U successor, I think it's hard to believe that it could outsell that system by 4x.

 

[mario_O]

Gamefreak is bad at 3D.

I can see a Pokemon on Switch would either take forever to develop or it looks like a 3DS game.

I supect many of the hanheld franchises won't upgrade to fully match the power of the Switch. We will have mobile/handheld type games: the sequels of the 3DS games, and some AAA console-like games.

 

[DeuceGamer]

This is Nintendo's only hardware over the next 3 years. No more dedicated handhelds. No more dedicated consoles. This is their future.

Combining numbers, I don't think it's unfeasible to think it hits 40 million by 2020 (although I'd probably go 2021 or 2022), especially with a mainline Pokemon game as well as new Mario Kart and Animal Crossing games most likely in the next three years.

Yea, only way to play Nintendo games (other than the mobile offerings) will help move units over the next several years. I would also add for people sighting the launch price, that it will likely drop in price and get bundles so price won't be as large of a concern in the near future.

With the new Tegra architecture it will allow them to be more flexible. They could release "revisions" or additional form factors such as a Switch Go, which is a HH only version without the dock, at a cheaper price. These types of revisions would play all the same games and would still count towards the Switch lifetime sales.

 

[Suburban Thug]

Do they have Pokemon, MonHun and whatever Level 5 is cooking up on the horizon though? Let's not forget Animal Crossing and Fire Emblem. I think the number is very conservative.

Wii U did and how did that turn out

 

[Majmun]

Do they have Pokemon, MonHun and whatever Level 5 is cooking up on the horizon though? Let's not forget Animal Crossing and Fire Emblem. I think the number is very conservative.

Do you really think that the handheld crowd is going to pay $300 to play those games?

This will be a tough one.

 

[thefro]

This will be a very attractive machine once there's a price/cut bundle.

 

[hanspampel]

I really don't like this estimates without any actual sales data to back them up.

Why not wait a year and see how switch is doing. A projection after that would be way more accurate and reasonable and not just a guess

 

[DeuceGamer]

Wii U did and how did that turn out

Wii U had mainline Animal Crossing, Pokemon, and Level 5 games?

 

[Dark Cloud]

Wii U did and how did that turn out

When did Wii U have those? Lol

I really don't like this estimates without any actual sales data to back them up.

Why not wait a year and see how switch is doing. A projection after that would be way more accurate and reasonable and not just a guess

Yeah, you can make a better assessment in a year, which I'm sure in a year from now they'll revise their predictions if they have to.

 

[Inferno313]

Some of y'all are fucking crazy. It won't hit 10 million by 2020? The very fact that this is going to be the Pokemon system going forward will allow it to easily hit that number. Potentially, even this year.

 

[Bitch Pudding]

Switch's success depends almost entirely on whether or not it's Nintendo's only platform moving forward. If another dedicated handheld is released from Nintendo (highly unlikely), it's going to struggle.

They'd need a mobile-only / cheaper SKU for that to happen.

 

[nubbe]

Gamefreak is bad at 3D.

I can see a Pokemon on Switch would either take forever to develop or it looks like a 3DS game.

Gamfreak's assets are developed for hardware way more capable than 3DS to be future proof
They did a business decision to make their games run worse on 3DS so they won't need to remake everything when more capable hardware like the Switch arrives.

 

[jonno394]

Do you really think that the handheld crowd is going to pay $300 to play those games?

This will be a tough one.

A lot of them will. Do you think monster Hunter fans, the 4 million or so of them in Japan, will just give up on their favourite game series?

 

[Majmun]

Some of y'all are fucking crazy. It won't hit 10 million by 2020? The very fact that this is going to be the Pokemon system going forward will allow it to easily hit that number. Potentially, even this year.

hmmm

 

[notaskwid]

I'm not making a prediction because there are a lot of problems with the switch that *can* be addressed, whether they will or not be is another story.

One thing, I really doubt this will be a success out of the launch hype period, not in the conditions that are presented right now.

 

[Pie and Beans]

I could see that being lifetime sales if things started going remarkably right and sooner rather than later.

A few years in and reaching that point? No.

 

[Deleted member 752119]

I supect many of the hanheld franchises won't upgrade to fully match the power of the Switch. We will have mobile/handheld type games: the sequels of the 3DS games, and some AAA console-like games.

I mostly agree. But worry they'll fuck that up by charging $50-60 for those portable type games instead of the $40 portable gamers are used to given how much their gouging accessories prices, adding paid online etc.

I've got one preordered, but really feel like they're in "fuck it, let's milk our fanbase for all their worth" mode as they know they're not going to sell Wii or DS numbers again and need to up profit per owner.

 

[renzolama]

I really like that they title this an "intelligence" report. Sounds so official, it must be true!

 

[N.Domixis]

Japan alone is like half of that so maybe.

 

[Athreous]

If the console last till 2020... look at wii u and how abandoned it was lol...

 

[yuraya]

Seems like a lot of people are underestimating the Switch. It has the potential to be very big in Japan alone. Nintendo will have that market completely to themselves. There is no competition for handhelds over there. Sony isn't releasing a Vita successor. The Vita and the 3DS will be on their way out soon. The Switch will have that market all to itself. Once Nintendo starts releasing big name handheld exclusives games for the Switch in 2018 and 2019 the device will be a must own. Plus its also a console so it will play many other type of games. I think it will sell half of the 40 million in Japan alone by 2020. Possibly even more depending on how cheap it gets and what type of revisions it may get.

 

[idlewild_]

3DS was at 50.41MM shipped in the same timeframe (end of 2014.) 40m sounds feasible if they kill the 3DS relatively soon.

 

[Majmun]

A lot of them will. Do you think monster Hunter fans, the 4 million or so of them in Japan, will just give up on their favourite game series?

Mario franchise has more fans. He couldn't save the Wii U.

 

[tsab]

I am too dumb. I need a polygon pie chart

 

[DesertFox]

Some of y'all are fucking crazy. It won't hit 10 million by 2020? The very fact that this is going to be the Pokemon system going forward will allow it to easily hit that number. Potentially, even this year.

But... I can play Pokemon on my iPhone.

 

[Toxi]

This is overly optimistic if Nintendo doesn't slash the price like they did with the 3DS. Especially since 3DS support is still strong in 2017.

 

[Derphoof]

That's... bad. Really bad, right?

Xbox One has been on the market for three years now. It's only at 26 million sold.

So, no. That's perfectly fine.

 

[Mr T.]

I'd say that is around the number I was thinking of in a little under 4 years. When you factor in this device is replacing the 3DS and Wii U you have to realize all the software that sold those devices will be coming to the Switch. When Pokemon, Smash Bros, a new Mario Kart, Monster Hunter, and all of Nintendo other IP's start building up a solid library all Nintendo fans will eventually upgrade. If Nintendo fans buy in the third parties will come back. Despite what people think install base size is ultimately what determines if a publisher supports a platform. The Switch's ceiling is high because if the casual gamers or core gamers also buy in it can be a great system.

 

[Guymelef]

Japan alone is like half of that so maybe.

3DS is 22M in Japan after 6 years...

 

[marc^o^]

Do you really think that the handheld crowd is going to pay $300 to play those games?

I think if I invite you, or anyone, play Switch with me, you will like it a lot. Switch is a viral proposition, you just detach a controller and you have a face-off or a co-op session. This is still an abstract concept, that will soon become very concrete.

I think price can easily go down. Great games are coming. And the Hardware as I said, is special. Tthe handheld crowd will be targetted, soon enough.

 

[pr0cs]

I was surprised that I didn't see this image on the first couple of pages of this thread

There is no way it will sell that sort of numbers

 

[Castef]

What did DFC project for the Wii U?

Mmmh... have a look here, it is a november 2013 report.

"We are once again lowering our outlook for the Wii U. Right now it is looking to do about what the GameCube did during its lifespan which is mainly be another system for Nintendo first party product."

"The research company is officially lowering its Wii U hardware lifetime sales projection to around a quarter of the Wii's, which would be around 25 million units."

 

[Dark Cloud]

Xbox One has been on the market for three years now. It's only at 26 million sold.

So, no. That's perfectly fine.

But that's different and how many times has Microsoft had to cut the price of the Xbox One? It's not successful at all.

 

[Majmun]

3DS was at 50.41MM shipped in the same timeframe (end of 2014.) 40m sounds feasible if they kill the 3DS relatively soon.

And slash the Switch pricing by 50%

Remember that 3DS only started to sell well after the $249 to $ 169 pricdrop, which happened four months after launch...

 

[Muzicfreq]

Some of y'all are fucking crazy. It won't hit 10 million by 2020? The very fact that this is going to be the Pokemon system going forward will allow it to easily hit that number. Potentially, even this year.

Sure.. where is Nintendo announcing that major game that currently stands as a rumor?

 

[GregLombardi]

I'm not saying this report is anywhere near close to correct, but I've had a LOT of discussions about this system with gamers in person.

The thing that gamers are missing in the conversation, or before the conversation, is that you shouldn't be thinking like a gamer or comparing the system to a playstation 4 or xbox one or scorpio, etc.

This is a Wii U + a 3DS. Anyone who is not a gamer that I talk to thinks very much of it as a 2 in 1. Assessing the price of a 2 in 1 when that is what consumers are regarding it is a much more difficult proposition.

If Switch sells 10 mill in the first year that is a huge victory though. Huge.