Control warrior and priest are dead though. Reno warlock is a control deck but has a combo finisher which makes the deck viable against jade.
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Hearthstone |OT8| Elise's Extremely Irresponsible Field Trip To Un'Goro
- Thread starter ZealousD
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Control warrior and priest are dead though. Reno warlock is a control deck but has a combo finisher which makes the deck viable against jade.
LyleLanley
Banned
It seemed interesting at first but now it just feels so boring and at the same time frustrating to play against.
Brawndo Addict
Banned
Man that has me thinking about the enormous amount of data they can collect and the huge number of options they have for analyzing it. You could, for example, find out what the best "perfect curve" combo of cards is for the first three turns (how high does this winrate go I wonder?). Or you could see how the winrate of certain cards changes based on playing it before curve (through cost reduction or innervate type cards) and after curve (didn't draw until after that turn). So you could see whether Rag's win-rate has any statistically significant changes based on whether you play him on turn 6/7/8/9/10 for example.
In particular, I am very curious about the inherent variability of deck win rates with respect to curving out. That is, how wide is the discrepancy between the win-rates when you perfectly curve out and when you don't. You could end up with a scenario where a deck is balanced in the sense that all its various draw orders average a 50% win rate when summed together, but the win rates of specific draw orders may be wildly disproportionate.
As they mentioned in one of the Overwatch Dev videos/posts, players have a strong psychological preference towards winning by huge margins even if it means the match wasn't competitive. We think we want competitive balance, but players hate to lose close games and they don't enjoy winning a close game as much as they enjoy winning in a blowout.
This same problem may be reflected in Hearthstone through the statistical chances of your deck aligning more or less towards your 'perfect curve' (and its presumably much higher winrate relative to the 'average' draw order). Blizzard could likely calculate at the very beginning of the game what your chance of winning or losing the match was based on the deck orders of the two players. They could even go a step beyond that and measure the meta-data of competitiveness; how often was the win-rates of the two players near 50% and how often was it lopsided towards one player over the other, say 70-30.
Basically what I want to know is this: Is the average game of hearthstone more likely to be a competitive match whose winner is determined by individual player choices or is it more likely to be a blowout determined primarily by the draw order of cards? And is the answer to that question different in other card games or is it just a problem inherent to the genre?
Familienoberhauptvogel
Banned
Okay I miss midrange shaman already too much reno and taunts and I continuously draw double doomhammer.
Mobius and pet octopus
Member
Control might be currently dead, but it might not stay dead. It needs to be different than removal warrior.
But since when is priest dead? One of the early best reno decks was priest. Because renolock is really popular atm, it isn't the top deck but it's far from dead. And renolock may not last forever at the top slot. I think there still is a reno priest deck that hasn't been super refined yet.
Fast forward to when reno cycles, priest may then be best positioned to play a reno style deck because of raza and their ability to fill the gap that reno leaves in the deck with huge burst heals, like from greater health potion.
Talking about it has me thinking about trying reno priest again. My first attempts sucked. I even crafted raza for it.
edit:
Maybe something with finley and justicar? Could be pretty strong.
Jade doesn't straight up beat control, control doesn't straight up beat aggro.
I feel like if it were freeze mage versus control warrior level counter it would be rock paper scissors. I don't think 55/45 matchups justify calling it rock paper scissors.
But yeah, a deck needs a win condition besides fatigue. That is OK by me.
I feel like if it were freeze mage versus control warrior level counter it would be rock paper scissors. I don't think 55/45 matchups justify calling it rock paper scissors.
But yeah, a deck needs a win condition besides fatigue. That is OK by me.
I feel like paladin may have a good list somewhere, but figuring it out is going to take some time. The strength of the Goons is in their ability to flip the board in the mid/late game at the cost of tempo early, so symmetrical board clears(ala Equality/Pyro, Brawl) should be really good in these lists. I think the big question is whether or not any of the goon classes can go slow and survive with a minion-heavy list. If I'm correct, I could see goons possibly breaking into wild before they ever do in standard.
Man, I even put a Kappa this time.
I don't think we're in a RPS meta, I'm poking a bit of fun at the Reddit types who think the sky is falling because of Jade Idol and/or Patches.
You mean to include minions?
Yes; overheal on any character.
We aren't in an RPS meta, but I don't really see why people are mad about the possiblilty of that. Isn't RPS inherently balanced? Rock isn't better than Scissors (except against my former roommate who always threw Scissors first LUL). In a BALANCED game, which people claim to want, it would be some kind of Combo beats Control beats Aggro beats Combo scenario. That seems ok to me. I'd be fine with that.
Anecdotally, I think I'll try for my Golden druid these next couple seasons. I'm pretty close (350ish games), and all the others are much farther off. I really like the Jade Auctioneer deck atm. Getting 2-3 turns of insane Fandral Value has never been so great.
Anecdotally, I think I'll try for my Golden druid these next couple seasons. I'm pretty close (350ish games), and all the others are much farther off. I really like the Jade Auctioneer deck atm. Getting 2-3 turns of insane Fandral Value has never been so great.
Straight up RPS matchups feel bad, like Ctrl Warrior vs Freeze mage. It's a fine balance between favoured matchups and unbalanced ones.
I've lost two games recently to Dirty Rat now. Losing Jaraxxus or Leeroy/Faceless is pretty brutal.
I agree you need some sort of combo option to really win now but there's also a card that can preemptively burn that win condition. I wonder if we may hit a time where games just come down to who gets a more important pull off that.
I agree you need some sort of combo option to really win now but there's also a card that can preemptively burn that win condition. I wonder if we may hit a time where games just come down to who gets a more important pull off that.
Familienoberhauptvogel
Banned
Should I play Dirty Rat in Aggro Shaman?
Hell no. You play it in control decks.
Well I guess you can throw it in to try to counter Reno Jackson but that's so fringe I don't think it's worth it.
Familienoberhauptvogel
Banned
You say that but I'd be happy with pulling an abyssal. Heck pulling a jade spirit can be a big swing.
Mobius and pet octopus
Member
I think kripp's attitude reflects the playerbase. They want any class to be capable of building a deck to be good against the entire field of meta decks without having any match ups that feel like you unfavored heavily. This probably doesn't accurately sum his thoughts on the issue, but based on what I heard him say when I was watching him last night.
So basically 2/6 is a weak 4 drop. Maybe 3.5. So you gain 1.5 worth of mana when you play it. But if your opponent gets a 2 drop, that tempo is basically nothing gained. Aggro cares about tempo much more than value... so I'm gonna say about 90% of the time it's bad. Even if it pulls a 2/3 jade spirit, it's not that good. It's a 2/4 right off the bat if it gets a jade spirit.
That seems like a needlessly fancy way of doing it versus just doing a traditional otk priest no?
Those cards are nearly completely dead before the combo.
RPS feels terrible to play. When you queue into something you have almost no chance of winning you feel screwed by the match making. Design for the feels is one thing Blizzard actually really cares about. If you're going from one 30-70 game to another 70-30 game and so one, it doesn't feel you actually earned the win or deserved the loss whether if you consider that balanced or not since it might end up 50 percent win rate in the end.
What you want is that decks should be closer and it's only then that player decisions can swing the game. Sure, something is better against one other thing and worse against something else. 40-60 or so on is reasonable. We're not quite 30-70 yet but it could be close.
Karsticles
Member
Isn't that just a well-balanced game? I feel like we should all want that.
Familienoberhauptvogel
Banned
Playing Aggro Shaman I often have answers in hand in the form of burn but when I go for the kill they reno or abyssal my board or brann jade spirit outrace me and such. Dirty Rat could be a tempo swing in all those situation in my favour.
Kazakus alone is close to a death knell since after it comes down I either go all in and pray he whiffs or wait it out and get owned by an Abyssal / Reno.
I don't have the dust to craft it right now so I can only theorycraft.
I dunno. I mean losing in general sucks regardless of how or why. Making losing feel less bad by making the matchups unfair doesn't seem like a good idea to me. That just leads to stuff like Midrange Shaman or Aggro Shaman being the best deck because shamans don't like to lose. I just don't think that your reasoning is good. Can't balance based on feels, gotta use data!
I understand your point about a matchup being like 7-3 instead of 10-0 though. With a 7-3 you might have an out, but in the 10-0 you just auto lose for playing and that blows. I might argue that choosing a deck like Freeze Mage you are putting yourself in that hole anyhow, but that's beside the point. In general, my opinion is that Hearthstone is so variable due to deck size and starting hand size that pretty much no matter what you do it's going to be very difficult to make a true 10-0 matchup in hearthstone. Short of Blizzard printing some insanely broken cards (and no Jade Idol is not insane, we're talking about stuff on the level of Ancestral Recall or Time Walk in MtG), the game is variable enough to give most decks a chance against most other decks. Yes stuff like CW vs Freeze Mage exists, but so too does many many decks that are virtual coin flips. I guess I just don't feel too bad for people when they lose the RPS matchup. Losing sucks no matter what, and being the favored class and losing probably sucks even more.
Imagine how bad it would feel to be the CW that lost to that lucky Freeze Mage!
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
I coined out Dirty Rat against a Rogue that played swashbuckler/patches turn 1, and it pulled out N'Zoth.
Certainly was surprised by that one. Might have been a good pull too, if not for it being turn 1. Needless to say I lost that game.
Would be funny if patches gets used intentionally as a head fake for Dirty Rat in the future.
Certainly was surprised by that one. Might have been a good pull too, if not for it being turn 1. Needless to say I lost that game.
Would be funny if patches gets used intentionally as a head fake for Dirty Rat in the future.
slightconfuse
Banned
Brawl was pretty easy this week
Coined out nerubian egg on turn one with a back stab
Coined out nerubian egg on turn one with a back stab
Mobius and pet octopus
Member
I don't think so. It's an unrealistic dream to have all 9 classes capable of building a deck that has no hard counters available to it. And it's not even necessarily a good thing to have a meta with no hard counters. That's not really a meta game, it's stale. There would be a few decks at the top with better winrates then the rest of the pack, and you are rewarded less for discerning where the meta game is heading.
I think lopsided match ups are just a part of a healthy meta. The meta adjusts. It's when it cannot adjust that things are a problem.
Wow so disgusting, just saw a dragon priest vs a pirate warrior on stream, priest played the 2/4 taunt + power word shield and the 3/6 taunt afterwards, he still lost the game on turn 5.
And people say play taunts vs pirate warrior if you face many of them, haha.
Edit: btw it was trumpsc, he was also pretty shocked
And people say play taunts vs pirate warrior if you face many of them, haha.
Edit: btw it was trumpsc, he was also pretty shocked
TetraxShards
Member
Forlorn Stalker is the only minion other than Barnes in my Tavern Brawl deck that has no deathrattle.
Guess what Barnes pulled four times in a row? I mean, I still won 3 of the games, but still. "The beasts betrayed me." indeed.
Guess what Barnes pulled four times in a row? I mean, I still won 3 of the games, but still. "The beasts betrayed me." indeed.
Mobius and pet octopus
Member
Does ethereal peddler reduce cost from kabal/goons tri class cards? I noticed you can steal triclass cards with stealing cards from your opponent's class.
Sound he had 2 turn blank tho
Mobius and pet octopus
Member
I had a game where I had like a turn 2 4/5 taunt, turn 3 through turn 5 plays that were strong. And still lost on turn 5 with reno in hand. I think the only way I could have curved out better was a turn 1 mistress, but even that may not have been enough.
Yea even then it's pretty ridiculous to lose on turn 5 when you played 2 big taunts before, it wasn't even a mortal strike finish, just buffed weapons.
Wow!
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
Hmm. Maybe I was wrong. Wouldn't be the first time I initially underestimated an aggro deck's power.
The Wizard
Member
Seems like you need to coin Reno on 5 a lot in that match up, i always save it now even if I have a good 3 card like demonwrath.
Yeah some of these aggro losses is prety hèartbreaking af
Mobius and pet octopus
Member
I watched the replay of that match I described. I went first turn 1, didn't have mistress. Turn 2 I mortal coiled his patches. Turn 3 I had a 4/5 taunt (wasn't turn 2). It was dealt with easily by heroic strike. Turn 4 kazakus. I didn't get the armor option, but I got the AOE. Turn 5 I aoe'd and drew 2 cards. If he didn't top deck damage I won, but he got heroic strike. If I got the armor option, I may have survived long enough to draw reno. With the 2 card draw I did draw into reno, but I died on turn 5 so...
platypotamus
Member
I'm not sure about that, but a protip if you are playing Shaman or Druid and you have the discover a lotus class card, and it offers you Ethereal Peddler, you should probably take it, because while you you might think "there's no way it'll do what I hope it'll do", it will do that.
Not a good spot to be in.
Mobius and pet octopus
Member
I just played my first match with my brand new dragon reno n'zoth priest deck. I had such bad luck. He was playing renolock. Netdecking of course. He had MCT in top 10 cards. I didn't want to float 4 mana in such a hard match up, so I played shifting shade. He steals shifting shade. His shifting shade steals my sylvanas. I have to play against 2 back to back sylvanas. I still managed to contain initiative with resistance to most of his AOE (only felfire potion cleared board, or twisting nether if he runs).
Next bit of bad luck was my kazakus potion. I'm running n'zoth so I chose the resurrect 3 minions and draw 3 cards. Really powerful imo for my deck. I whiffed on all 3 resurrects. It's possible I played that a little too early considering he stole my shade. Still pretty good odds to resurrect cairne.
A little bit of "luck" where my drakonid operative spied that he had not yet drawn faceless and leeroy despite already having played ET and reno. I took leeroy.
Much later he plays jaraxxus. Not playing around sylvanas at all. He then tries to flood the board and sylvanas steals a 6/6. He is at 12 hp.
Feels good to win an unfavorable control match up.
Next bit of bad luck was my kazakus potion. I'm running n'zoth so I chose the resurrect 3 minions and draw 3 cards. Really powerful imo for my deck. I whiffed on all 3 resurrects. It's possible I played that a little too early considering he stole my shade. Still pretty good odds to resurrect cairne.
A little bit of "luck" where my drakonid operative spied that he had not yet drawn faceless and leeroy despite already having played ET and reno. I took leeroy.
Much later he plays jaraxxus. Not playing around sylvanas at all. He then tries to flood the board and sylvanas steals a 6/6. He is at 12 hp.
Feels good to win an unfavorable control match up.
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