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[Kvally]

The Switch 1 will be on the market for a long time coming. I can see it hitting 170.

 

[Luminoth-4545]

So they landed at 10.88M this FY it seems. The initial forecast was 12.5M iirc, then adjusted down to 11M, so the drop is steeper than what Nintendo was expecting. Although I guess 12.5M was a very high bar to begin with.

Will be interesting to see for how many years they'll keep Switch (1) going. 4.5M by March 2026, 2M(?) by March 2027, less than 1M(?) by March 2028 doesn't seem unreasonable. This'll be interesting!

The initial forecast was 13.5 million.

 

[Topher]

Now that the 160m gambit didn't work they are using a new thing where they call Switch a 3DS successor, as in it is not a console. What a cult.

Not sure who "they" is but Switch definitely has a console mode and it will outsell PS2.

 

[Woopah]

3DS did 70-ish million units toe to toe with mobile in its six years on the market before Switch was released.

Exactly. If Nintendo had only released a Switch Lite it would have done 70 - 90 million. It's the hybrid nature that took it to 150 million+

The software sales would also have much worse. Nintendo home consoles have higher tie ratios than Nintendo portables.

 

[Topher]

Exactly. If Nintendo had only released a Switch Lite it would have done 70 - 90 million. It's the hybrid nature that took it to 150 million+

The software sales would also have much worse. Nintendo home consoles have higher tie ratios than Nintendo portables.

How many units do you think Nintendo would have sold if it were a home console, not portable?

 

[Woopah]

How many units do you think Nintendo would have sold if it were a home console, not portable?

A home console with the Switch lineup, around 45-55 million (if priced at $299).

 

[Killjoy-NL]

Now that the 160m gambit didn't work they are using a new thing where they call Switch a 3DS successor, as in it is not a console. What a cult.

No idea who or what you're talking about?

 

[Topher]

A home console with the Switch lineup, around 45-55 million (if priced at $299).

Not sure what Switch Lite has sold, but I think a home console would sell a bit less than whatever that number is.

 

[Woopah]

Not sure what Switch Lite has sold, but I think a home console would sell a bit less than whatever that number is.

That would be less than 25 million. The total Nintendo audience is bigger than that.

 

[Topher]

That would be less than 25 million. The total Nintendo audience is bigger than that.

Ok....we are not going to see eye to eye on this one. Good discussion though.

 

[Woopah]

Ok....we are not going to see eye to eye on this one. Good discussion though.

My main point is that I don't think fans of Nintendo's franchises disappear if they are not portable.

E.g. Pokémon fans would buy a home console if it was the only way to play the next mainline Pokémon game. People would have bought a home console if it was the only way to play Animal Crossing in lockdown.

But yes good discussion!

 

[Robb]

The initial forecast was 13.5 million.

Oh right, it was even higher. That was a lofty goal!

 

[awwr999999]

Switch 2 forecast is lower then I thought it would be.

Switch 2 just makes the OG Switch seem like a better value.

 

[awwr999999]

I am hoping Sony would do a re-release of a brand new PS2 slim with HDMI output and still support original discs.

If Sony doesn't bring back the PS2 the Switch will eventually outsell it.
A DualSense PS2 could be better than the original and allow PSN to sell digital editions of existing PS2 games with DualSense feedback.
PS reopens the PS2 platform and makes a handheld that can play the same DualSense PS2 games.

 

[adamsapple]

 

[L*][*N*K]

Not sure who "they" is but Switch definitely has a console mode and it will outsell PS2.

They:

 

[Hector Hall]

They:

Funny thing is change that PS5 image with Switch, Mario or Pokémon and that's literally you.

 

[asdasdasdbb]

This is basically ~9 months forecast for the Switch 2, not the same. The Switch 2 is going to launch ~2 months after the FY started. Switch 1 launched 27 days (And sold around 2.5M) prior the beginning of their next fiscal year. The Switch sold 15.01 million in that full 12 months period (FY18). If the Switch 2 meet the forecast that's 15 million in just ~9 months, and thats all the units that Nintendo can produce. Probably 20 million in the first 12 month's calendar year.

I was expecting like 10 million Day 1 and another 10-20 for the remainder of the fiscal year.

 

[Woopah]

I was expecting like 10 million Day 1 and another 10-20 for the remainder of the fiscal year.

That's wayyyy too ambitious. No console has sold anywhere close to 10 million Day 1.

 

[OuterLimits]

Yes, but let's not act like $130 in 2008 is like $130, now. $130 in 2008 is like $193 in 2025. Not much cheaper than the $199 for the Switch Lite.

PS2 also had direct competition from 3 newer consoles at that time, one being its own successor.

Sony dropped the PS2 price in 2009 to $99. At that point it had sold 136 million. So the price was super cheap(under $100) the final couple years on market when it sold an additional 24 million. I bought an extra one for $89 at Best Buy about a year before Sony stopped production. Wish I had bought a couple more at the time honestly.

 

[Boy bawang]

Considering they didn't lower the price but arguably increased it, with the OLED, it is the most successful console of all times, has been for a while already, and it's not really close.

I think that the new switch will to start plateauing after 100-110 millions. Still excellent, but the success of the Switch 1 will be hard to reproduce.

 

[asdasdasdbb]

That's wayyyy too ambitious. No console has sold anywhere close to 10 million Day 1.

Only 15M means the PS5 will outsell it; and if it gets a GTA 6 bump, it will outsell easily.

 

[Woopah]

Only 15M means the PS5 will outsell it; and if it gets a GTA 6 bump, it will outsell easily.

How much are you expecting PS5 to sell between June 2025 and the end of March 2026?

 

[OuterLimits]

It's argumentative wanting the cake and eating it too mental gymnastics, really.

> It's a "home console" when fanatics want it to beat traditional console sales.

But in the same breath.

> It's "a handheld" excuse gets wheeled out when it comes time to compare specs to traditional home consoles.

It's a damned handheld that has video out. Something the PSP, Vita and every cell phone the past decade+ did/does as well.

The PSP on a TV was trash though. The Switch is actually enjoyable to play on a TV.

 

[TAS]

Almost 70 million for Mario Kart 8! Minus the WiiU numbers, that has to be the record for a single platform no?

 

[Mozza]

152 million units is not to bad considering many on here said the Switch was DOA.

 

[Robb]

How much are you expecting PS5 to sell between June 2025 and the end of March 2026?

Shouldn't Ps5 be expected to sell >15M between between Q2-Q4? Seems like it has the past FY's.

 

[L*][*N*K]

Funny thing is change that PS5 image with Switch, Mario or Pokémon and that's literally you.

translation:

 

[DeepEnigma]

The PSP on a TV was trash though. The Switch is actually enjoyable to play on a TV.

Vita was fire and still one of the best jailbroken emulation devices.

Especially the Vita TV kit.

 

[Woopah]

Shouldn't Ps5 be expected to sell >15M between between Q2-Q4? Seems like it has the past FY's.

Yes but it's in its decline phase now. Every year it will sell less than the year before.