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[Imru’ al-Qays]

Also, I'm somewhat perplexed that the idea that a long console cycle will cause "pent-up demand" is so popular. Is there any evidence for it? Why would that even be the case? Are most consumers even aware, consciously or not, of how long their current console cycle has lasted?

People buy new consoles because they like new things, they want to stay up to date, they want to have better graphics, they want to play the cool new games. I don't think people tend to buy consoles just because they've owned their old consoles for too long.

Also, I'll point out that for a lot of people it wasn't the seventh generation that was long but the sixth. The HD twins launched at high price points, which caused people to hold off on buying them. For those people the sixth generation effectively persisted well into the seventh - this is why PS2 lifetime sales are so high. For people who jumped into the seventh generation late, which is a lot of people, it hasn't been a long generation at all. So where's all this pent-up demand coming from? $600 PS3 fat early adopters and red ring of death survivors?

 

[Amir0x]

Also, I'm somewhat perplexed that the idea that a long console cycle will cause "pent-up demand" is so popular. Is there any evidence for it? Why would that even be the case? Are most consumers even aware, consciously or not, of how long their current console cycle has lasted?

A consumer may not consciously be aware of it, but if they tire of a product because they feel they got all they are going to get from it, they will inevitably slow down their game purchases for it. Then a company sees this, reacts by creating a new console, and those gamers who may not have consciously realized they were bored of games with that old console suddenly want a to buy a new console immediately again. It's not a particularly foreign concept or something.

As for the pent-up demand, there are too few statistical data points - i.e. generational transitions - so far with too many similar transitional time frames to really make a scientific analysis of it possible in my opinion. Few generations have been as long as the Xbox 360/PS3/Wii generation was. And the reason the pent-up demand theory holds so much weight right now is partially because the PS4 and Xbox One had some of the most unprecedented launches in history, with unheard of sales in some cases. This resulted in people saying "aha, people really were tired of having such a long generation, that's why so many people were willing to pay a premium and jump in on day one!"

I don't think the theory is far fetched or something, and I'd even probably lean that way myself and say it's probable, but I don't think we have enough data yet to be sure

 

[rpmurphy]

Side question: do Walmarts carry the Vita? I went into one nearby that opened up about a month ago, and there was no shelf space for Vita hardware or games. The "Playstation" section was just for PS4 and PS3.

 

[Imru’ al-Qays]

A consumer may not consciously be aware of it, but if they tire of a product because they feel they got all they are going to get from it, they will inevitably slow down their game purchases for it. Then a company sees this, reacts by creating a new console, and those gamers who may not have consciously realized they were bored of games with that old console suddenly want a to buy a new console immediately again. It's not a particularly foreign concept or something.

As for the pent-up demand, there are too few statistical data points - i.e. generational transitions - so far with too many similar transitional time frames to really make a scientific analysis of it possible in my opinion. Few generations have been as long as the Xbox 360/PS3/Wii generation was. And the reason the pent-up demand theory holds so much weight right now is partially because the PS4 and Xbox One had some of the most unprecedented launches in history, with unheard of sales in some cases. This resulted in people saying "aha, people really were tired of having such a long generation, that's why so many people were willing to pay a premium and jump in on day one!"

I don't think the theory is far fetched or something, and I'd even probably lean that way myself and say it's probable, but I don't think we have enough data yet to be sure

It makes a certain degree of intuitive sense, sure. I don't think it makes as much intuitive sense as the other theory, though, which is that having enough supply at launch means that sales will be frontloaded around launch.

Basically people believe in one of two narratives (console sales doomed vs console sales fine) and pick the interpretation of the data that fits into that narrative. Until we get data for this holiday season I don't think we can make a definitive call either way. But Occam's Razor would seem to suggest that when console sales are at historic highs it's not a sign that the console market is collapsing.

The pent-up demand theory seems like something people who think console sales are doomed have made up in order to explain away the fact that objectively console sales are great.

 

[Amir0x]

Side question: do Walmarts carry the Vita? I went into one nearby that opened up about a month ago, and there was no shelf space for Vita hardware or games. The "Playstation" section was just for PS4 and PS3.

My Wal-Mart had like one tiny little bottom shelf left for like three rows of Vita games, and one was like Uncharted and another was, um, some Collection of games and the other was, like, a PS Vita Memory Card lol

 

[Game Guru]

What do you mean by that? Could you elaborate it for me?

Well, back in the 1990s there was a boom in the comic book market... Watchman and Dark Knight Returns had made comics into a medium which could cater to adults and taken seriously. So many comics catered to these adults, mostly to 18-35 year old men. So you can imagine the sort of content they had... The same sort of badly written mature tripe that most, not all, video games generally have nowadays. In any case, there was a boom in both the direct market for comics as well as foolish people buying up comics to preserve in droves. What ultimately ended up happening was that the market collapsed as comics catered to a smaller and smaller insular audience of fans and the comics and the comics people were collecting were for the most part worthless trash of the '90s. It actually led to Marvel filing for bankrupcy (obviously, they got out of it rather well) and eventually led to graphic novels, films, and cartoons based on superheroes being more lucrative to support than the monthly comic book was.

It's not a complete one to one, but the parallels are there... And of course, this is limited to the North American Comic Book Industry. To my knowledge, European Comic Books weren't really affected and Manga... actually had a boom period as well because of the rise of Anime in the West.

Also, I'll point out that for a lot of people it wasn't the seventh generation that was long but the sixth. The HD twins launched at high price points, which caused people to hold off on buying them. For those people the sixth generation effectively persisted well into the seventh - this is why PS2 lifetime sales are so high. For people who jumped into the seventh generation late, which is a lot of people, it hasn't been a long generation at all. So where's all this pent-up demand coming from? $600 PS3 fat early adopters and red ring of death survivors?

I'm pretty sure the 360 launched at $400 for the Pro version, which is the same price the PS4 and now the XB1 are at. Now that does not preclude customers waiting for the 360's RROD issues to get sorted out or PS3 to drop to a reasonable price, but it was not because both HD Twins had a high price since the 360 has the same price point as the PS4.

 

[Tookay]

Well, back in the 1990s there was a boom in the comic book market... Watchman and Dark Knight Returns had made comics into a medium which could cater to adults and taken seriously. So many comics catered to these adults, mostly to 18-35 year old men. So you can imagine the sort of content they had... The same sort of badly written mature tripe that most, not all, video games generally have nowadays. In any case, there was a boom in both the direct market for comics as well as foolish people buying up comics to preserve in droves. What ultimately ended up happening was that the market collapsed as comics catered to a smaller and smaller insular audience of fans and the comics and the comics people were collecting were for the most part worthless trash of the '90s. It actually led to Marvel filing for bankrupcy (obviously, they got out of it rather well) and eventually led to graphic novels, films, and cartoons based on superheroes being more lucrative to support than the monthly comic book was.

It's not a complete one to one, but the parallels are there... And of course, this is limited to the North American Comic Book Industry. To my knowledge, European Comic Books weren't really affected and Manga... actually had a boom period as well because of the rise of Anime in the West.

I like this analogy. A lot.

 

[Amir0x]

Well, back in the 1990s there was a boom in the comic book market... Watchman and Dark Knight Returns had made comics into a medium which could cater to adults and taken seriously. So many comics catered to these adults, mostly to 18-35 year old men. So you can imagine the sort of content they had... The same sort of badly written mature tripe that most, not all, video games generally have nowadays. In any case, there was a boom in both the direct market for comics as well as foolish people buying up comics to preserve in droves. What ultimately ended up happening was that the market collapsed as comics catered to a smaller and smaller insular audience of fans and the comics and the comics people were collecting were for the most part worthless trash of the '90s. It actually led to Marvel filing for bankrupcy (obviously, they got out of it rather well) and eventually led to graphic novels, films, and cartoons based on superheroes being more lucrative to support than the monthly comic book was.

It's not a complete one to one, but the parallels are there... And of course, this is limited to the North American Comic Book Industry. To my knowledge, European Comic Books weren't really affected and Manga... actually had a boom period as well because of the rise of Anime in the West.

I've never considered the parallels before. Will be fascinating seeing what direction this industry ultimately takes for a more complete comparison.

 

[Imru’ al-Qays]

If we assume these trendlines have stabilized for the rest of the year (and why wouldn't they have? if anything they'll improve since Destiny falls into the twelve-month window) this means the PS4 is likely to outsell the PS2's first year and to be within half a million of the Wii, and the Xbone will be the quickest-selling second-place console since at least the fifth generation. I just don't get where this collapse narrative is coming from. If anything we're seeing a consolidation of the sixth-generation also-ran status around Microsoft at the expense of Nintendo.

 

[A_Gorilla]

Well, back in the 1990s there was a boom in the comic book market... Watchman and Dark Knight Returns had made comics into a medium which could cater to adults and taken seriously. So many comics catered to these adults, mostly to 18-35 year old men. So you can imagine the sort of content they had... The same sort of badly written mature tripe that most, not all, video games generally have nowadays. In any case, there was a boom in both the direct market for comics as well as foolish people buying up comics to preserve in droves. What ultimately ended up happening was that the market collapsed as comics catered to a smaller and smaller insular audience of fans and the comics and the comics people were collecting were for the most part worthless trash of the '90s. It actually led to Marvel filing for bankrupcy (obviously, they got out of it rather well) and eventually led to graphic novels, films, and cartoons based on superheroes being more lucrative to support than the monthly comic book was.

It's not a complete one to one, but the parallels are there... And of course, this is limited to the North American Comic Book Industry. To my knowledge, European Comic Books weren't really affected and Manga... actually had a boom period as well because of the rise of Anime in the West.



I'm pretty sure the 360 launched at $400 for the Pro version, which is the same price the PS4 and now the XB1 are at. Now that does not preclude customers waiting for the 360's RROD issues to get sorted out or PS3 to drop to a reasonable price, but it was not because both HD Twins had a high price since the 360 has the same price point as the PS4.

I really don't see how you can compare what happened with comics in the early 90s with that is happening with video games now. Like at all. The only thing the two have in common are "mature and badly-written" story lines and that is subjective as hell.

What almost killed the comic industry in the 90s was people assuming comics would be valuable in the future, after seeing how many thousands of dollars some comics like Action Comics number 1 were selling for. The comic industry saw an opportunity for vast revenue and began to cater to these "speculators" by printing a ton of "limited edition" versions of the same comic issue, with different covers, foil, etc.

The darker and edgier story lines had little to do with comics failing. It was all about the comic industry blinded by short sighted revenue and moronic speculators not realizing that comics became valuable because they were RARE, and it's hard for a "limited edition" comic to become rare when you print a million of them. When they finally wised up and stopped buying comics, the comic industry now had millions of issues that no one wanted to buy since what was left was, you know, people who actually READ the comics they buy and don't buy ten of the same issue just because the covers are different.

I fail to see how any of this applies to the video game industry. No one is speculating that video games will become rare and collect them in droves.

A far better parallel to whats happening with video games now is what happened to the music industry, or even the DVD/Blu Ray industry.

 

[Massa]

I've never considered the parallels before. Will be fascinating seeing what direction this industry ultimately takes for a more complete comparison.

I'm surprised, people have been making that comparison for over a decade.

 

[Mpl90]

A thing that I've noticed recently is that Amazon has not been selling the Titanfall bundle for a while (I'd say around the last two weeks and more, but I'm not entirely sure)

http://www.amazon.com/dp/B00KAI3KW2/?tag=neogaf0e-20

Not even the price from one of those sellers, an estimate of when it'll be back in stock, nothing.

The normal Xbox One + Kinect bundle is sold by third parties as well, but at least there are prices

http://www.amazon.com/dp/B00KAI3KW2/?tag=neogaf0e-20

Then, right now, the only SKU sold directly by Amazon.com is the Kinectless one. Is this a new MS initiative to try to drive customer demand onto the cheaper model? Or is this more of an Amazon decision? What's the situation in the other retailers?

 

[Amir0x]

I'm surprised, people have been making that comparison for over a decade.

I may have heard it before, but never seen it explained it such extensive detail. When it's presented in such a way, it does seem fascinating in its parallels. There's of course no evidence we'll eventually end up the same way, but it does make for some interesting thought experiments.

Is this a new MS initiative to try to drive customer demand onto the cheaper model?

I thought Microsoft makes more money off the 499 Kinect bundle than the 399 Kinectless bundle?

 

[Spinluck]

Mario da gawd.

Come on Wii U, hang in there.

 

[SwiftDeath]

A thing that I've noticed recently is that Amazon has not been selling the Titanfall bundle for a while (I'd say around the last two weeks and more, but I'm not entirely sure)

Then, right now, the only SKU sold directly by Amazon.com is the Kinectless one. Is this a new MS initiative to try to drive customer demand onto the cheaper model? Or is this more of an Amazon decision? What's the situation in the other retailers?

I noticed that as well. I always wondered how long MS intended to keep the TF bundle available because quite frankly it can't be a negligible cost to put in a 3rd party game like that for free

I'm assuming they don't want the bundle anymore and are trying to better position the cheaper one. Could seriously affect sales in the next month or so

 

[Spinluck]

PSP has good shot at outselling every single console and handheld this gen actually. The industry is doing just fine you guys.

Yup, if the PSP was out during the prime of mobile devices (I guess you can say we are still in that prime lol), it would've died quicker than Vita.

 

[AniHawk]

But which should we give more credence to? This is the first generation we've seen in a long, long time without supply constraints at launch. The question is: if there had been supply constraints would we be seeing higher monthly sales now? I think there's a pretty good chance we would. Certainly it's not so clear that this wouldn't have happened that it's worth dismissing the possibility entirely.

well my theory is that this is a fanbase that is used to doing a lot of things day one. it's almost been instilled over the last eight years, leading to incredibly frontloaded sales. i think that's essentially what happened at launch. among a wider audience, there seems to be a general lack of interest in new consoles now that the generation actually started. the ps4 isn't the ps2 and it isn't the wii, despite ltd sales indicating otherwise.

What do you see Nintendo doing in response to a potential failure like this lifetime for its successor should there not be a surprise comeback?

they should make several types of devices that play their games. not really an ipad, iphone, and apple tv, but something along those lines so that their library is exclusive to a set of hardware. the hardware should also be profitable. they can't go following microsoft and sony into their nonsense model.

i would like to reply to grotesque beauty, but because he would be unable to respond, i won't.

 

[Mpl90]

well my theory is that this is a fanbase that is used to doing a lot of things day one. it's almost been instilled over the last eight years, leading to incredibly frontloaded sales. i think that's essentially what happened at launch. among a wider audience, there seems to be a general lack of interest in new consoles now that the generation actually started. the ps4 isn't the ps2 and it isn't the wii, despite ltd sales indicating otherwise.



they should make several types of devices that play their games. not really an ipad, iphone, and apple tv, but something along those lines so that their library is exclusive to a set of hardware. the hardware should also be profitable. they can't go following microsoft and sony into their nonsense model.

i would like to reply to grotesque beauty, but because he would be unable to respond, i won't.

Given recent words from Iwata & co., this has a good possibility of happening.

 

[Abdiel]

I noticed that as well. I always wondered how long MS intended to keep the TF bundle available because quite frankly.

I'm assuming they don't want the bundle anymore and are trying to better position the cheaper one. Could seriously affect sales in the next month or so

Swift, your posts are normally solid, but when you end a statement like "because quite frankly." it doesn't really sound like the statement concluded, even if you meant it to carry into the next sentence, haha. My brain ground to halt with that one.

 

[coolasj19]

Y'all remember that thing Iwata said about games prices going down the more you buy? When's that gonna happen? My idea is that you buy the WiiU for $300, the first game is $60 and the games drop in price $5 every game until you get to $10-$20. All digital of course. Nintendo makes their money back through volume and people buying games they would never ever buy normally, and you get tons of games. Of course, you value as a customer purchasing first party games tops out around $500 but is that not a good number? I mean, now is the perfect time for Nintendo to do large scale experiments.

 

[Imru’ al-Qays]

well my theory is that this is a fanbase that is used to doing a lot of things day one. it's almost been instilled over the last eight years, leading to incredibly frontloaded sales. i think that's essentially what happened at launch. among a wider audience, there seems to be a general lack of interest in new consoles now that the generation actually started. the ps4 isn't the ps2 and it isn't the wii, despite ltd sales indicating otherwise.

The PS4 may not be the PS2 or the Wii, that'll take time to determine, especially because both of those consoles were defined by late-cycle phenomena that couldn't have been anticipated at the outset (the PS2 by its extraordinary legs, the Wii by its equally extraordinary late-cycle implosion). But it doesn't have to be the PS2 or the Wii for the console market to not be undergoing a significant contraction. I'm not sure what "wider audience" you're referring to, anyway: the only console to ever rely on "the wider audience" for the bulk of its sales has been the Wii, at least since the PS1's initial expansion of the market into the 18-35 age bracket. It's not a wider audience that the PS4 and Xbone need, it's for the existing core gamer audience to not go away.

 

[IN&OUT]

This chart is reflecting NA only, which paint a favourable picture for Xbone only, other console sell good outside US.

Looking at this chart you would think that Xbone is still charting above PS2 and Wii while in reality it didn't enjoy similar success.

I'm bringing this point because some posters seem to question Xbone weak sales post and use this chart as a counter arguement.

 

[Imru’ al-Qays]

This chart is reflecting NA only, which paint a favourable picture for Xbone only, other console sell good outside US.

Looking at this chart you would think that Xbone is still charting above PS2 and Wii while in reality it didn't enjoy similar success.

I'm bringing this point because some posters seem to question Xbone weak sales post and use this chart as a counter arguement.

Very fair point.

 

[Mpl90]

Y'all remember that thing Iwata said about games prices going down the more you buy? When's that gonna happen? My idea is that you buy the WiiU for $300, the first game is $60 and the games drop in price $5 every game until you get to $10-$20. All digital of course. Nintendo makes their money back through volume and people buying games they would never ever buy normally, and you get tons of games. Of course, you value as a customer purchasing first party games tops out around $500 but is that not a good number? I mean, now is the perfect time for Nintendo to do large scale experiments.

They said they'll kickstart the full version of that with next systems, but also that they would like to experiment on Wii U during 2015, IIRC.

 

[KratosEnergyDrink]

Look at the upcoming release list for Wii U games for the next four months. It is seriously, LITERALLY without exaggeration able to be counted on a single hand. We're talking N64 levels here now of support, maybe even worse going into 2015.

So you has obviously no clue about the Wii U games for the rest of the year ... But want to share your thoughts with us anyway

 

[AniHawk]

The PS4 may not be the PS2 or the Wii, that'll take time to determine, especially because both of those consoles were defined by late-cycle phenomena that couldn't have been anticipated at the outset (the PS2 by its extraordinary legs, the Wii by its equally extraordinary late-cycle implosion). But it doesn't have to be the PS2 or the Wii for the console market to not be undergoing a significant contraction.

i just mean the sort of buzz around the platform. from the outset there was this sort of need to get a ps2 or a wii. there was an association of gaming in general with both these platforms. i haven't seen the same thing happen with the ps4. i'm not sure when that will happen, either.

 

[Kayant]

A thing that I've noticed recently is that Amazon has not been selling the Titanfall bundle for a while (I'd say around the last two weeks and more, but I'm not entirely sure)

http://www.amazon.com/dp/B00KAI3KW2/?tag=neogaf0e-20

Not even the price from one of those sellers, an estimate of when it'll be back in stock, nothing.

The normal Xbox One + Kinect bundle is sold by third parties as well, but at least there are prices

http://www.amazon.com/dp/B00KAI3KW2/?tag=neogaf0e-20

Then, right now, the only SKU sold directly by Amazon.com is the Kinectless one. Is this a new MS initiative to try to drive customer demand onto the cheaper model? Or is this more of an Amazon decision? What's the situation in the other retailers?

Nice find on gamestop tf bundle is not listed but there is the Forza and kinectless sku in stock atm.

Same thing for bestbuy but they have two sku for Forza 5 bundle for some reason and TF bundle is listed as not being available for shipping.

Walmart is out of stock for TF bundle but has their version with 12 months live available.

Newegg is also out of stock....

Microsoft store also doesn't have it listed.

Looks like TF bundles are going and Forza 5 w kinect + kinectless to be the official choices? Don't know if I missed any other big stores as I don't live in US.

I thought Microsoft makes more money off the 499 Kinect bundle than the 399 Kinectless bundle?

Maybe from the rough estimates we have cost of kinectless should be about $396
Kinect is estimated at $75 to manufacture.

So $29 profit margin for kinect bundle
$3 for kinectless
That's without thinking about other costs and whether the prices estimates from IHS were right. I do think the kinectless is a bit low however, I don't think MS would be so aggressive if that amount is real given what they have said.

 

[Apt101]

The speculative market killed comics. The generally poor quality of the art form during that period was a side effect.

We live in a golden age of indies, kickstarters, and early access funding for smaller projects. Sony making great efforts to connect more indie developers with the traditional console user base. MS appears to be following suit.

Personally I don't see any compelling similarities between the contraction of the comic market and the current VG market.

 

[geordiemp]

So you has obviously no clue about the Wii U games for the rest of the year ... But want to share your thoughts with us anyway

But he is a GAF poster - imagine how much Joe Public who does not go on Forums knows about upcoming releases....

That's the point, its no good Nintendo fans that watched Treehouse listing the games for enticing new console buyers.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Swift, your posts are normally solid, but when you end a statement like "because quite frankly." it doesn't really sound like the statement concluded, even if you meant it to carry into the next sentence, haha. My brain ground to halt with that one.

Fixed that lol

I was playing a game at the same time while also watching a tv show. Mind in too many places at once

 

[Petrae]

Side question: do Walmarts carry the Vita? I went into one nearby that opened up about a month ago, and there was no shelf space for Vita hardware or games. The "Playstation" section was just for PS4 and PS3.

I think it varies based on location. Not all stores are carrying it; I've seen some that do and some that have removed the Vita section entirely.

 

[Amir0x]

So you has obviously no clue about the Wii U games for the rest of the year ... But want to share your thoughts with us anyway

Here is a list of games with hard release dates coming out in the months of August, September, October, November. And I'll even throw in the last one from July, as a bonus:

Wii Sports Club Retail Edition (end of July)
FIFA 15: Legacy Edition Wii (September 23, 2014)
Hyrule Warriors (September 26, 2014)
Skylanders Trap Team (not sure the release date, sometime in October)
Just Dance 2015 (October 23)
Bayonetta 2 (October, fuck yes)
Sonic Rise of Lyric (November)
Lego Batman (I think November, but no release date announced)

And then we finally get November and by the end of that month FINALLY we get more than a handful of retail releases at once again.

Then we just have a bunch of games with tentative Q3 2014 and Q4 2014 release dates, but they're all just tentative, and most of them don't have any retail presence whatsoever outside of the digital space. I'm not devaluing these games by the way, I don't consider indies or whatever of lesser importance, but there's no denying what is going on here. A complete abandonment by third parties, and the obvious detrimental effect partially which is a shockingly low amount of actual retail releases from here on out. Again of which the argument remains: how does Nintendo actually maintain any sort of momentum when the ground is falling out beneath their feet like that? I submit they cannot with the games they are developing themselves and with their partners currently. I am not sure anyone could fill in that many gaps on their own.

 

[Raist]

wii = ~100m
360 = ~85m
ps3 = ~85m

anywhere between 260m and 270m for consoles is about right. keep in mind this wasn't a market for a lot of startups. traditional publishers are who made a lot of money in this gen and it's they who also suffered a lot of problems.

just trying to grasp for a good feeling on the upcoming generation is hard. japan is pretty much meaningless, and other markets are becoming accepting of video games, but will they offset what was lost? will video game consoles even be that big of a deal in five years? can we go so long without an update again? eight years was a longass time. do you think 2020 is an appropriate year to be seeing the next xbox, nintendo system, or playstation?

all that stuff works against what might be reasonable for this upcoming generation. i personally don't feel as optimistic about it just off of the contraction we're already seeing, and the dip in variety that's taken place over the last couple of years.

so my guesses:

wii u: 11m
japan: 3m - it had a remarkably good holiday last year, given what preceded it. i think it's something that can be repeated at least for this year. sales are already nearing 2 million, and with smash bros. and even better bundles, i think the platform could see the better side of 2.3m by the end of the year. after that, there's no real system seller and the thing will just have to move off the existing value. zelda's basically a dead franchise over there, and whatever else is coming out will probably only cater to the existing fanbase.
europe: 3m - european sales are so shit for this system. i think i'm being pretty optimistic with this guess, although like with america, there's been a bigger push than japan to get wii us to customers. so maybe it'll actually make it to this number after all.
north america: 5m - current sales are roughly 2.5m. if things continue along this route, and sales are at least what they were last year (about 700k for november + december), then wii u will be at 3.5m in the us by the end of the year. i don't think this is an unreasonable prediction. after that, sales will probably die down from 2014 for most of 2015, and only tick upwards slightly when zelda comes out. but who knows, maybe splatoon is actually going to be a system seller and drive millions of units in the states. regardless, i wouldn't expect much more than another million and a half out of the machine in the us, especially if 2016 is the last year it's on the market.
rotw: negligible. i don't even know if nintendo really ships to more than these regions, but i can't believe it would be substantial.

xb1: 44m
japan: 0.5m - the xbox 360 actually sold 1.65m units in japan, improving on its predecessor by over 200%, but given the current state of japan, i think things will slide way back down to the original xbox at best.
europe: 16m - it will probably do well enough across the pond to keep up a good second place appearance next to the ps3, but given the current split between the us and europe, i don't know how microsoft will win people over in what has been traditionally sony's turf.
north america: 24m - i kind of expect a decent recovery from microsoft on the platform, and a good push in the american market where they have espn and football and calaudoody. i think they have lost and will continue to lose a lot of customers to sony and the ps4. it will be rough.
rotw: 3m - i don't even know. i'm just kinda putting this here because the numbers look pretty sad overall now that i think about it.

ps4: 83m
japan: 6m - the system's off to a rough start right now, but it sorta reminds me of the vita. i don't think sales are representative of where they will be, and in a way it's somewhat encouraging that it's managing 7k in a week when there's really nothing to cater to the fanbase. 2015 will give a fuller picture, since it's also when a lot of japanese games are hitting. i don't think there's any denying that the importance of the console market has diminished, either.
europe: 32m - i guess i just kind of expect europe to pretty much make this their thing.
north america: 35m - sales will probably more resemble the ps1 than the ps2, wii, or xbox 360. still, it will have a solid place as the market leader.
rotw: 10m - again, i don't even know. sony's been successful in markets nobody really considers but at the same time those numbers aren't made public. then if china actually becomes a thing, maybe it'll be even more successful than just this.

so i guess for me i'm looking at 83m + 44m + 11m for 138m or so in the console space over the span of about 5-6 years. i think that even if these numbers are off sony is the only manufacturer who has the chance of not facing contraction of any kind and even the possibility of growth over the previous gen. but this doesn't even resemble the gen preceding last (ps2 - 155m, xbox - 24m, gc - 22m, dc - 10m = total - 211m), but the last half of the 90s instead (psx - 100m, n64 - 33m, saturn - 9m = total - 142m).

I agree overall, but the highlighted bit seems very optimistic. It's struggling in the UK already, and getting absolutely demolished in mainland Europe.
For reference, the 360 was sitting at 14M in EMEA as of 2011.

 

[Shiggy]

So you has obviously no clue about the Wii U games for the rest of the year ... But want to share your thoughts with us anyway

Well, what are the games that are still coming this year? I can't see too many hitting the shelves.

Skylanders
Disney Infinity
Just Dance
Lego Batman
Sonic Boom
Watch Dogs (still coming?)
Bayonetta
Hyrule Warriors
Captain Toad
Smash Bros.

 

[TheXfactor]

xbox one doing 40 million at the end of its lifetime seems incredibly optimistic, like the xbox had a massive halo hit on its hands back in the day and i think it sold 25 million? I think thats more of the number they will be shooting for. I just don't see it improving that much, everything they've tried right now hasn't been working. their big hope right now is halo, and i don't think thats enough.

And I defiantly think the wii u will do more than 11 million, if mario kart 8 boosted it this much, i think smash brothers will boost it even more, plus other games as well. I think 18 to 20 million is accurate enough. How ever what should be important to nintendo right now is keeping a positive image to themselves to the gamers, because to be honest, that helps for their next console. It helped sony with the ps4(and microsoft screwing up a megaton)

 

[Amir0x]

Well, what are the games that are still coming this year? I can't see too many hitting the shelves.

Skylanders
Disney Infinity
Just Dance
Lego Batman
Sonic Boom
Watch Dogs (still coming?)
Bayonetta
Hyrule Warriors
Captain Toad
Smash Bros.

Watch Dogs is still coming, confirmed by Ubisoft. Anyway, no matter how we shake it, over the next four months the confirmed retail release count is abysmally low, and it's only going to get worse, not better. Pretty much all third party support short of Lego games and dance party games are gone altogether once 2015 rolls around. Nintendo and indies will be propping the system up on their own essentially. it WILL be N64 level - if not worse - of third party support from that point forward. I am not sure how things like Bayonetta 2, Xenoblade, Splatoon, etc - as much as I want to play them - change this trajectory for Wii U in between the few remaining mega bombs Nintendo has left, such as Smash Bros. I guess Amiibo is the true unknown variable, who knows with that sort of thing I suppose.

Nintendo may be able to stop the bleeding from getting any worse, maybe throw a few bandages on this bad boy and make it into a system that can barely limp around the room but is still drawing breath, but a success? Even one that can match the already terribly low bar of Gamecube? I just have to be skeptical given the evidence we have before us, and the evidence we have behind us.

 

[GoofsterStud]

Then, right now, the only SKU sold directly by Amazon.com is the Kinectless one. Is this a new MS initiative to try to drive customer demand onto the cheaper model? Or is this more of an Amazon decision? What's the situation in the other retailers?

Oh really?

Xbox One Console - Forza Motorsport 5 + Kinect (Prime) Sold by Amazon $499
Day One Edition Sold by Amazon $499
Why would you get the standard bundle when you can get Forza 5 for free or the Day One edition for the same price which is sold by amazon.

Amazon gives Xbox One a huge boost in ranks by combining them all. If the Destiny Bundle and the Standard PS4 modesl were combined it would be ranked a lot higher.

Right now
10: PS4 Standard
24: PS4 Destiny
55: Xbox One (All sku's combined)

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

Y'all remember that thing Iwata said about games prices going down the more you buy? When's that gonna happen? My idea is that you buy the WiiU for $300, the first game is $60 and the games drop in price $5 every game until you get to $10-$20. All digital of course. Nintendo makes their money back through volume and people buying games they would never ever buy normally, and you get tons of games. Of course, you value as a customer purchasing first party games tops out around $500 but is that not a good number? I mean, now is the perfect time for Nintendo to do large scale experiments.

I assumed their digital deluxe promotion where you get a $5 rebate for every $50 you spend was what he was talking about.

 

[marc^o^]

You can say it will perform better than the Jaguar, SEGA CD, 32x, the Virtual Boy and the Pippin and maybe Vita by the end. That's really the best praise you can say for Wii U's trajectory right now with how bad things are doing.

That's totally the best we can hope for at that point. Thanks for illuminating me. Mind if I keep this one on my side for posterity?

Maybe if I understood your personal metric for what is a success and what is not I will better understand why you think things are going to change so dramatically for Wii U.

I said it several times already over the last months, I believe this gen will look a lot like the PS2 era, with PS4 far ahead, and Wii U/Xbox close to GC/Xbox figures. I believe Nintendo will keep selling the Mario Kart 8 bundle for years, that's the main reason why people will buy a Wii U next year, the year after that. That's a sales pattern we saw with the Mario Kart Wii bundle. I believe 3DS has been one of the best selling systems in recent years, and that with the right growing lineup and execution, Nintendo will manage to convert millions of them. Over a longer period of time than GC as I said, partly helped by higher digital margins or Amiibo profits.

At last I believe people still like Nintendo and with the good buzz surrounding Wii U now, are prone to get it at a good price, see the refurbishing thread popularity.

 

[ZSaberLink]

But he is a GAF poster - imagine how much Joe Public who does not go on Forums knows about upcoming releases....

That's the point, its no good Nintendo fans that watched Treehouse listing the games for enticing new console buyers.

I heard some stat saying like 3m people watched the Treehouse Live segments. If those are unique individuals, that's equivalent to about half the current Wii U install base. If any of those folks were new owners, potentially they saw something new? The reason Amirox doesn't know about half the titles is because he's probably not the target audience for a lot of the games.

 

[Mpl90]

Oh really?

Xbox One Console - Forza Motorsport 5 + Kinect (Prime) Sold by Amazon $499
Day One Edition Sold by Amazon $499
Why would you get the standard bundle when you can get Forza 5 for free or the Day One edition for the same price which is sold by amazon.

Amazon gives Xbox One a huge boost in ranks by combining them all. If the Destiny Bundle and the Standard PS4 modesl were combined it would be ranked a lot higher.

Right now
10: PS4 Standard
24: PS4 Destiny
55: Xbox One (All sku's combined)

Yeah, sorry, you're right. Those other two SKUs are sold by Amazon as well, but I kind of ignored them because they're certainly not that important currently, i.e. not the most important ones, with a low demand (currently 238th and 611st).

Btw, that's the ranking just for the Xbox One without Kinect, not the ranking for All the SKUs combined: each SKU has a different placement in charts.

 

[George Claw M.D.]

Amazon gives Xbox One a huge boost in ranks by combining them all. If the Destiny Bundle and the Standard PS4 modesl were combined it would be ranked a lot higher.

Right now
10: PS4 Standard
24: PS4 Destiny
55: Xbox One (All sku's combined)

Amazon does not combine all the Xbone SKUs in their rankings. If you go to each individual Xbone SKU and scroll down the product page, you'll see each SKU has a different ranking.

Currently, they're ranked at:

#611 Day One
#238 Forza Bundle
#820 Titanfall Bundle
#55 Xbox One
#163 Xbox One + Kinect

edit: ^^^ Beaten.

 

[Shiggy]

I heard some stat saying like 3m people watched the Treehouse Live segments. If those are unique individuals, that's equivalent to about half the current Wii U install base. If any of those folks were new owners, potentially they saw something new? The reason Amirox doesn't know about half the titles is because he's probably not the target audience for a lot of the games.

The audience for a Bayonetta 2, Xenoblade X, or Devil's Third is pretty small, especially on a Nintendo console. For games such as Yoshi, Captain Toad, and Kirby the problem is that the people buying those titles already have the console - as evidenced by the hardware bump of similar titles.

Smash Bros may result in another sales bump, but I doubt it's going to have an impact comparable to MK8. The Mario Kart franchise simply is more mass market/family accessible, and sales in the last generation made this overwhelmingly clear.

 

[Amir0x]

That's totally the best we can hope for at that point. Thanks for illuminating me.

Perhaps you need more sleep before you start getting into the fray and already misinterpret things wildly again?

I did not say that was the best we can hope for. I said, as of this moment, the only things we can say with CERTAINTY is that it will do better than those platforms, which is an expression of how dire the trajectory for Wii U currently is. The best we can hope for is apparently whatever it is you are hoping for, since you are hoping far harder than it was ever thought possible for any one man to hope, and certainly harder than I can hope, and I certainly hope and wish Wii U is a success.

So, quick overview. What we can say with certainty != what we can best hope for

I said it several times already over the last months, I believe this gen will look a lot like the PS2 era, with PS4 far ahead, and Wii U/Xbox close to GC/Xbox figures. I believe Nintendo will keep selling the Mario Kart 8 bundle for years, that's the main reason why people will buy a Wii U next year, the year after that. That's a sales pattern we saw with the Mario Kart Wii bundle. I believe 3DS has been one of the best selling systems in recent years, and that with the right growing lineup and execution, Nintendo will manage to convert millions of them. Over a longer period of time than GC as I said, partly helped by higher digital margins or Amiibo profits.

At last I believe people still like Nintendo and with the good buzz surrounding Wii U now, are prone to get it at a good price, see the refurbishing thread popularity.

You're cleverly avoiding actually answering what I said. I asked what the specific metric you have for where your own personal terms for calling a Wii U a success are. How many millions of units would it need to sell over its life? The moment Nintendo says it has broke even on the Wii U project, is that your line of success, no matter what its hardware numbers are at that point? I'm trying to gauge where you are at in terms of how you judge a console's business success, so that I can understand from some perspective other than your obvious bias why you keep expressing this authoritative certainty about Wii U's ability to turn things around into a modest success. There's no sinister other motive here.

I'll also completely let your 3DS comment slide, considering that the 3DS as it stands is also a great symptom of the virus that is currently eating Nintendo slowly from the inside out, and shows a great future danger for Nintendo as well, as the gaming dedicated handheld market is indisputably contracting at a massive rate, and it shows in the 3DS numbers. This however is too big of an alternative topic to discuss here, and there's no way I think I'd get a rational defense out of you here considering what teeth pulling we are having to do over the Wii U. So let's push that element to the side, since I can't even really begin to argue with the other newly fabricated fantasy that Nintendo is going to convert millions of 3DS fans into adoring Wii U owners, even while 3DS is rapidly contracting in relevance all around the world. More wild guesses I suppose.

 

[ZSaberLink]

Watch Dogs is still coming, confirmed by Ubisoft. Anyway, no matter how we shake it, over the next four months the confirmed retail release count is abysmally low, and it's only going to get worse, not better. Pretty much all third party support short of Lego games and dance party games are gone altogether once 2015 rolls around. Nintendo and indies will be propping the system up on their own essentially. it WILL be N64 level - if not worse - of third party support from that point forward. I am not sure how things like Bayonetta 2, Xenoblade, Splatoon, etc - as much as I want to play them - change this trajectory for Wii U in between the few remaining mega bombs Nintendo has left, such as Smash Bros. I guess Amiibo is the true unknown variable, who knows with that sort of thing I suppose.

Nintendo may be able to stop the bleeding from getting any worse, maybe throw a few bandages on this bad boy and make it into a system that can barely limp around the room but is still drawing breath, but a success? Even one that can match the already terribly low bar of Gamecube? I just have to be skeptical given the evidence we have before us, and the evidence we have behind us.

Since when was it all about the number of titles? I agree having no titles for months on end is terrible, but quality titles fill gaps much better than mediocre to terrible titles. It's funny that you bring up the N64, but it sounds to me like the GC had better software support overall? Kind of interesting in that regard as I feel Nintendo intentionally took the N64 path this time (quality over quantity). If I'm not mistaken there are also fewer titles for the XB1 & PS4 than there were in previous gens right?

Also honestly I think the main part that everyone is missing is software sales. The problem with the Wii U initially wasn't the install base, it was and mostly always has been the software sales. When the Wii U initially came out, if all the third party titles sold ok to well, do you think they would have jumped ship so fast? The first thing Nintendo needed more than a large install base was a fairly active one. Even Nintendo's own titles have sold fairly terribly for the most part. NSMBU and 3D World sold ok (eventually w/ 3D World), and the rest sold fairly badly. For once, there seems to be some software movement (and some hw) thanks to Mario Kart. The XB1 and PS4 were selling much more software on a smaller install base. While clearly having more people get the hardware does help software sales, they needed to get the current Wii U users to start using their console again. It's a lot easier to get them to go out and buy a game or two as opposed to those who haven't even bought the console yet. I know companies now say "oh the install base needs to be high enough", but I think they'd be fine with a small but super active one if that was possible.

 

[Wickerbasket]

I think part of Nintendo's problem is that the 3DS might be cannibalising Wii U sales. They're offering a lot of the same experiences on the 3DS as on the Wii U, and it has a bigger library, with a much cheaper price.

I imagine it's hard to convince someone to buy a Wii U when they've already played similar games on their 3DS.

 

[ZSaberLink]

I think part of Nintendo's problem is that the 3DS might be cannibalising Wii U sales. They're offering a lot of the same experiences on the 3DS as on the Wii U, and it has a bigger library, with a much cheaper price.

I imagine it's hard to convince someone to buy a Wii U when they've already played similar games on their 3DS.

But then 3DS sales would be through the roof right? Even those are declining as well.

 

[Wickerbasket]

But then 3DS sales would be through the roof right? Even those are declining as well.

No, not necessarily.

Nintendo's core fan base has been shrinking for quite some time, and it could just be a continuation of that.

If you're a Nintendo fan and you want to play Nintendo games, then the 3DS services that quite well.

 

[Shiggy]

But then 3DS sales would be through the roof right? Even those are declining as well.

Take a look at the upcoming or even current lineup. The sales decline does not come as a surprise.

 

[Game Guru]

I really don't see how you can compare what happened with comics in the early 90s with that is happening with video games now. Like at all. The only thing the two have in common are "mature and badly-written" story lines and that is subjective as hell.

What almost killed the comic industry in the 90s was people assuming comics would be valuable in the future, after seeing how many thousands of dollars some comics like Action Comics number 1 were selling for. The comic industry saw an opportunity for vast revenue and began to cater to these "speculators" by printing a ton of "limited edition" versions of the same comic issue, with different covers, foil, etc.

The darker and edgier story lines had little to do with comics failing. It was all about the comic industry blinded by short sighted revenue and moronic speculators not realizing that comics became valuable because they were RARE, and it's hard for a "limited edition" comic to become rare when you print a million of them. When they finally wised up and stopped buying comics, the comic industry now had millions of issues that no one wanted to buy since what was left was, you know, people who actually READ the comics they buy and don't buy ten of the same issue just because the covers are different.

I fail to see how any of this applies to the video game industry. No one is speculating that video games will become rare and collect them in droves.

A far better parallel to whats happening with video games now is what happened to the music industry, or even the DVD/Blu Ray industry.

Indeed... The speculator boom that comics had which video games don't is perhaps the biggest difference between the two, and will likely be what actually keeps gaming from ending up like how comics did. However, when I see a single game having different retailer exclusive DLC at each retailer, I can't help but think of how comics in the '90s had variant covers to convince people to buy more than one copy. Perhaps console gamers should at the very least keep the mistakes of past mediums in mind and try to have gaming avoid them.