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[scrambles]

I really feel pressured into buying a wiiu and splatoon

 

[The Grim Reaper]

Quietly followed quite some NPD topics, but the last months got more and more boring.

Totally ready for the $299 PS4 announcement. I would bet on it if there wasn't Europe and PS4 selling like hotcakes there.

May is always like this. It's a very weak month at retail, if not *the* weakest month.

Why do you think we routinely get so few leaks around this time of year? Because there isn't much to talk about if you quickly bore of the stagnant retail market.

There are some surprises that people aren't talking about, though. The whole New 3DS debacle, for example, is very interesting because it was supposed to revitalize Nintendo's handheld business.

 

[foltzie1]

I really feel pressured into buying a wiiu and splatoon

https://store.nintendo.com/ng3/us/p...lse&productId=prod560316&categoryId=cat160004

Refurb with 2 games for 225 is your BATNA.

 

[KingSnake]

I really feel pressured into buying a wiiu and splatoon

There's nothing to lose, except for your social life this summer.

 

[CosmicQueso]

Do you have overall shares for 2015 at all?

IDG only publishes those once a year for the year prior.

 

[Erimriv]

Is this their plan to do a $299 500GB sku this holiday and drop the 1TB to $350 perceptive price drop?

I hope so, I don't have a current gen console, don't play on pc and Fallout 4, MGS V, Witcher 3, new Deux EX, new Mirrors Edge etc etc are waiting for me. I'll get a PS4 instead the X1 at 299€ but that price for PS4 this holydays is doubtful at best.

Don't know what is doing MS here in Europe, the X1 official price here in Spain is 369€, bundled with The Witcher 3 I think it's 379€, Sony is absolutely destroying them, they need to drop to 299€.

 

[theprodigy]

IDG only publishes those once a year for the year prior.

Do you have 2014 shares then?

 

[Crom]

I was mainly directing you to that single point you made.

That new IP's tend to be frontloaded. Yes, that can be very true... if the game only serviced a small niche, or if it didn't hit like it could have. Then you have those new IP's that shape not only the console they released on, but to degrees the entire market. CoD, Gears, Halo, and the Wii "" line are some to look at.

Popularity, word of mouth, signifies how frontloaded a games sales will be. And that's nothing you can get from it's first month of sales. Hell, even second and third month can hide an emerging trend.

You may be completely right about Splatoon. But it's first "month" of sales (in this case two days) won't tell you anymore than what it did in those first two days. And you can try to read tea leaves from sites like Amazon, but that's a crapshoot. Don't stake everything on it.

Most of all, have fun. NPD is our own personal monthly soap opera. That we get to influence. Some of us add wit, some add fact, some add wild speculation. At the end, hopefully, it is an interesting dramatic reading reflection of the current market. And probably not something to be proud of, but definitely something to marvel at.

And some "professionals" just add bullshit.

June should be fun.

 

[DAREALGUMMY]

That actually looks like a fun game. I wish it were available on the PS4 or the Xbox One.

Uhh...

 

[Shig]

It's 3 days of sales, I believe people keep saying two to try to downplay the fact we already have seen pretty much the extend of what the sales will be.

Day one sales have never been the extent of sales for pretty much any Nintendo game that charts decently initially. If one of their games comes out the gate well, it's gonna continue on having decent gains for at least a few months, historically. Nintendo has a lot of weaknesses, but colossal sales drop-offs month to month ain't one of 'em.

 

[ZSaberLink]

I mean, to me, 136k is not "a bomb" or whatever, but is it really much more than that? I understand all your confounding factors-- new IP, essentially comatose platform-- but you also have some important counterweights. First of all, the audience buying games on the WiiU is incredibly hardcore, as evidenced by Nintendo's core software sales across the platform this year and last year. Second, there was a very significant advertising push. The 136k sounded familiar to me and I couldn't place where. Then I remembered-- that's 3Kish worse than Heavenly Sword did in September 2007 when the PS3 was essentially a zombie. I don't think that got nearly the same caveats when people were talking about its US performance. You've also got digital, so there's that, but there are also more Wii Us than there were PS3s in year 1 so I'll just consider that even.

I think it's not a catastrophic number. It's not a Wonderful 101 number. But I don't really think it's a good number or an impressive number (I'm surprised CosmicQueso said that). Given Nintendo's strength on the platform, it's basically what you'd require of the title for it to not be considered destined for B-tier Nintendo IP land.

I get that it's "TWO DAYS" of sales but we have this discussion for games all the time. Excepting all but the genre titans, you've still got a really significant chunk of LTD sales in your first couple of days due to the way game releases work.

I just get the feeling that Splatoon will have legs and that next month will be interesting. Even Kirby managed to have some pretty decent legs its second month right (selling more than its launch month)? We'll see how this goes though.

 

[Boy Wander]

That actually looks like a fun game. I wish it were available on the PS4 or the Xbox One.

Pro-tip: Port begging is usually frowned upon.

 

[ZSaberLink]

I don't know for two days it's very good for Splatoon.

I think that by the end of the June it might be over 350k in the US alone. So I expect Splatoon to chart next month and be around 4th place in the NPD. The game has legs and loads of people like me bought it digital because of the DLC Plans/intally low disk space requirement. So I think we should get a statement from Nintendo by the end of June about Splatoon doing 1mil digital+physical WW.

This is not MK8 which sold a million in two days - but the 4th biggest launch on the Wii U across the world is a great performance for a new IP.

Where are you getting the 4th biggest launch from though? I'm pretty sure Hyrule Warriors launched similarly for example.

 

[theprodigy]

Where are you getting the 4th biggest launch from though? I'm pretty sure Hyrule Warriors launched similarly for example.

It better not be chartz


....though something tells me even they don't have it that high

 

[Blak_Status]

Well that's not happening.

In fact, if someone is willing to re-size that picture, I swear to use it as my avatar for a month if it even enters top 10.

Just top 10 for June?

You're going to lose..... badly.

 

[Mister Megative]

Out of curiosity, do we have total US sales for PS4/PS3 and X11/360 over the same time period?

 

[Curufinwe]

Out of curiosity, do we have total US sales for PS4/PS3 and X11/360 over the same time period?

You can get the actual numbers here.

http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/NPD_May_2007

 

[Mory Dunz]

About this whole legs debate, new IP, Nintendo, 2 days, etc.



I mean, didn't even W101 technically have legs. If I remember (which I may be off), didn't it open around like ~30k in NPD, and now it's around ~100k? (Someone corrrect me if these are incorrect).


If that game (new IP with little marketing or WoM outside of GAF) managed legs relative to it's opening...

 

[CosmicQueso]

I think it's not a catastrophic number. It's not a Wonderful 101 number. But I don't really think it's a good number or an impressive number (I'm surprised CosmicQueso said that).

It is impressive to me given the reality of what the Wii U software market is in 2015. It's among the top launches of any title on the Wii U. Given it's a new IP in a genre that's struggled on Nintendo platforms for a decade, then yes, that is an impressive number.

If you want to extend the comparable set, and include games from other platforms or in other time periods, then no. That number isn't great.

But on this platform in this genre at this point in time? That's an impressive number. It's bigger than the available comparable and benchmark data would suggest.

All about the lens through which one defines good and bad I guess.

 

[BruceLeeRoy]

I have a feeling this is the last month Sony leads.

 

[Mister Megative]

I have a feeling this is the last month Sony leads.

Wat

 

[The Grim Reaper]

Whoops.

 

[Welfare]

I have a feeling this is the last month Sony leads.

Isn't it a bit early for drunk posting?

 

[hydrophilic attack]

Just top 10 for June?

You're going to lose..... badly.

All-formats SW list for June, yeah.

 

[March of the Crabs]

Did you sell them all to me!?

I don't think so unless you're 3 different people (one guy bought two). There's 4 left thoufh if you want 4 more

 

[Fandangox]

I mean, didn't even W101 technically have legs. If I remember (which I may be off), didn't it open around like ~30k in NPD, and now it's around ~100k? (Someone corrrect me if these are incorrect).


If that game (new IP with little marketing or WoM outside of GAF) managed legs relative to it's opening...

Well W101 also had a permanent price drop both in retail and the eShop, plus it too w101 a LONG time to reach 100k

 

[theprodigy]

1) Mario Kart 8 = 377K physical (May 2014)

2) New Super Mario Bros. U = 244K physical (November 2012)

3) Super Mario 3D World = 215K physical + digital (November 2013)

4) Splatoon = 163K physical

5) Hyrule Warriors = Below 163K physical, 190K physical + digital (September 2014)

Splatoon is 136k, also Smash and Captain Toad are missing

(also it was worldwide...and I doubt he has sales figures for the rest of the world)

 

[The Grim Reaper]

Splatoon is 136k, also Smash and Captain Toad are missing

Whoops. Yeah you're right.

 

[BruceLeeRoy]

Isn't it a bit early for drunk posting?

Its 3:40 where I am baby!
Hear me out. With only a 13k difference if MS show H5 looking awesome(which I assume it will be) and the Gears collection all with a lower price point than the competition. Who knows maybe there will be another price drop, shouldn't it be feasible that they overtake?

 

[Mister Megative]

You can get the actual numbers here.

http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/NPD_May_2007

No PS4 sales though.

 

[phanphare]

Its 3:40 where I am baby!
Hear me out. With only a 13k difference if MS show H5 looking awesome(which I assume it will be) and the Gears collection all with a lower price point than the competition. Who knows maybe there will be another price drop, shouldn't it be feasible that they overtake?

there's a special edition PS4 batman console next month

 

[Vena]

I don't think so unless you're 3 different people (one guy bought two). There's 4 left thoufh if you want 4 more

I am actually eight people, so ya... couldn't have been me.

 

[Mister Megative]

Its 3:40 where I am baby!
Hear me out. With only a 13k difference if MS show H5 looking awesome(which I assume it will be) and the Gears collection all with a lower price point than the competition. Who knows maybe there will be another price drop, shouldn't it be feasible that they overtake?

No.

 

[Loudninja]

Its 3:40 where I am baby!
Hear me out. With only a 13k difference if MS show H5 looking awesome(which I assume it will be) and the Gears collection all with a lower price point than the competition. Who knows maybe there will be another price drop, shouldn't it be feasible that they overtake?

Ehhh this is weak Bruce.

The Xbox One had a low price for awhile now.

 

[The Grim Reaper]

I don't know for two days it's very good for Splatoon.

I think that by the end of the June it might be over 350k in the US alone. So I expect Splatoon to chart next month and be around 4th place in the NPD. The game has legs and loads of people like me bought it digital because of the DLC Plans/intally low disk space requirement. So I think we should get a statement from Nintendo by the end of June about Splatoon doing 1mil digital+physical WW.

This is not MK8 which sold a million in two days - but the 4th biggest launch on the Wii U across the world is a great performance for a new IP.

Where are you getting the 4th biggest launch from though? I'm pretty sure Hyrule Warriors launched similarly for example.

It better not be chartz


....though something tells me even they don't have it that high

Splatoon is 136k, also Smash and Captain Toad are missing

(also it was worldwide...and I doubt he has sales figures for the rest of the world)

1) Super Smash Bros. U = 670K physical, 710K physical + digital (November 2014)

2) Mario Kart 8 = 377K physical (May 2014)

3) Mario Party 10 = 290K physical + digital (March 2015)

4) Captain Toad = 250K (December 2014)

5) New Super Mario Bros. U = 244K physical (November 2012)

6) Super Mario 3D World = 215K physical + digital (November 2013)

7) Hyrule Warriors = 190K physical + digital (September 2014)

8) Splatoon = 136K physical (May 2015)

9) Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze = 130K physical + digital (February 2014)

10) Pikmin 3 = 105K physical, 115K physical + digital (August 2013)


That's better.

Yeah, I don't know where he's getting #4 from.

 

[SmokedMeat]

Splatoon! Happy to have contributed!

 

[theprodigy]

I am actually eight people, so ya... couldn't have been me.

I count 10 Kirbys in your avatar, it's all a lie!

 

[BruceLeeRoy]

Alright fair enough fair enough it was just a thought.

 

[Mpl90]

I hope we get some small updates about older titles this month, after all. Aside from the obviously necessary update on Bayonetta 2 (hey! it's necessary to me!), I'd like to know where titles like Mario & Luigi: Dream Team, Sunset Overdrive, Tomodachi Life or...well, Pikmin 3, the title from the last big Nintendo new series before Splatoon.

 

[Welfare]

Its 3:40 where I am baby!
Hear me out. With only a 13k difference if MS show H5 looking awesome(which I assume it will be) and the Gears collection all with a lower price point than the competition. Who knows maybe there will be another price drop, shouldn't it be feasible that they overtake?

I know it's 3:50, that's why I asked Sony is going to have a Batman bundle, so what MS show at E3 won't have an immediate effect.

Does E3 week even have a big effect on console purchase?

 

[Loudninja]

Alright fair enough fair enough it was just a thought.

I mean Halo 5 is going to bump the Xbox One no doubt but I really doubt they drop the price again this year.

 

[1st Course]

Out of curiosity, do we have total US sales for PS4/PS3 and X11/360 over the same time period?

After 19 months:

PS4: ~7.7m
XB1: ~7.1m
360: ~5.6m
PS3: ~4.4m

PS4/XB1 numbers could be off by 100k or so give or take.

 

[Exile20]

I really feel pressured into buying a wiiu and splatoon

It is really great game, worth buying a Wii U for honestly, then add in all the excellent games that were released and you will be gaming for a while.

 

[KingSnake]

Well W101 also had a permanent price drop both in retail and the eShop, plus it too w101 a LONG time to reach 100k

How much of a price drop? from $60 to $45 for an old game?

Splatoon can get a price drop too if needed.

W101 was also one of the games offered for free with MK8 and still has managed to sell something after that. In the end the bomba reached 3 times the sales of first month after one and a half years.

 

[Exile20]

I mean, to me, 136k is not "a bomb" or whatever, but is it really much more than that? I understand all your confounding factors-- new IP, essentially comatose platform-- but you also have some important counterweights. First of all, the audience buying games on the WiiU is incredibly hardcore, as evidenced by Nintendo's core software sales across the platform this year and last year. Second, there was a very significant advertising push. The 136k sounded familiar to me and I couldn't place where. Then I remembered-- that's 3Kish worse than Heavenly Sword did in September 2007 when the PS3 was essentially a zombie. I don't think that got nearly the same caveats when people were talking about its US performance. You've also got digital, so there's that, but there are also more Wii Us than there were PS3s in year 1 so I'll just consider that even.

I think it's not a catastrophic number. It's not a Wonderful 101 number. But I don't really think it's a good number or an impressive number (I'm surprised CosmicQueso said that). Given Nintendo's strength on the platform, it's basically what you'd require of the title for it to not be considered destined for B-tier Nintendo IP land.

I get that it's "TWO DAYS" of sales but we have this discussion for games all the time. Excepting all but the genre titans, you've still got a really significant chunk of LTD sales in your first couple of days due to the way game releases work.

I think it will have legs and with Nintendo's way of releasing content every week through summer. It will always be on gaming news sites, twitter, neogaf, etc.

 

[marc^o^]

I really feel pressured into buying a wiiu and splatoon

If you have the cash, you won't regret it. Maybe wait for E3 announcements to seal the deal, or not.

 

[Fandangox]

How much of a price drop? from $60 to $45 for an old game?

Splatoon can get a price drop too if needed.

W101 was also one of the games offered for free with MK8 and still has managed to sell something after that. In the end the bomba reached 3 times the sales of first month after one and a half years.

It dropped to $29.99 and some retailers like Amazon had it at around $20 not long after that.

 

[Piggus]

Its 3:40 where I am baby!
Hear me out. With only a 13k difference if MS show H5 looking awesome(which I assume it will be) and the Gears collection all with a lower price point than the competition. Who knows maybe there will be another price drop, shouldn't it be feasible that they overtake?

I think Sony is at a point where they could probably drop the price of the PS4 by $50 if they feel the pressure, and that would negate pretty much anything MS is doing.

 

[Joeshabadoo]

Well that's not happening.

In fact, if someone is willing to re-size that picture, I swear to use it as my avatar for a month if it even enters top 10.

lawl, dude enjoy that creepy splatoon avatar for those weeks

 

[ZSaberLink]

I just want to highlight this post as being outstanding.

Bolded is why I think pubs have become so conservative on the big releases. Trying to figure out what works outside of Console while playing it very safe on what is released for Consoles as everything outside is high risk.

Good to see the post being appreciated! Was afraid no one read my wall of text haha. Thanks!

I'm kind of hoping that Nintendo's tough financial position will make them take this problem head-on with NX. They're a pretty creative company, and when they do it right, they often just hit it out of the park. Thus in some ways I'm excited to see what's next.