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NPD Sales Results for May 2015

Now where did you get that idea?

Depending on popularity, new IP's can be front loaded. If they aren't that popular. If they are, they can sell for the lifetime of a system.

It's a pretty front loaded game from what I'm seeing, tons of Pre-order, and hype before and during launch, retailers charts putting it high, and then dropping off, and outside of Amazon, which means nothing, is not showing much in terms of legs.

I mean I could be wrong, it's subjective an all, but I don't think there's any real legs for this game. I don't see it looking around me.
 

xaszatm

Banned
Here's an industry secret for you:
Someone who buys software is the only criteria for being "a gamer" for anyone professionally involved in the industry.

That's it.

They pay money, they're in the club. There's no secret handshake or entrance exam.

But...but...that initiation you made me do...

OT: Splatoon did decent numbers and worldwide can be counted on as a success. I do wish to see how the numbers play out though as Nintendo really tried to make this game look appealing in the long run. I think we'll see it again next month (is anything being released this month aside from one or two E3 "surprises"?) and that should help understand how the game did.
 

NotLiquid

Member
Mario Kart had legs, and showed those legs, Splatoon is not so far looking at retail.

Except it did. It's already showed legs in every territory that isn't the US. The only reason you don't see legs in the US so far is because you're not going to get reports of those legs until next month in the US since that's the only territory to not provide weekly numbers.

And of course Mario Kart moved hardware. Nothing moves Nintendo hardware like Mario Kart.

Also the rest of your post is pure assumption that the U.S. will mirror the other markets, yet currently looking at the NPD top 10 that conclusion doesn't make sense.

It's fair to say that with a few exceptions (with Splatoon not being one of those) many of the games such as Witcher, GTA and Minecraft continue to have a staying power on the charts of most western territories. Nintendo games are usually not that different proportionally and considering most of Splatoon's marketing push was in both Japan and the US, that particular awareness and lasting power is bound to reflect more.
 

Kriken

Member
It's a pretty front loaded game from what I'm seeing, tons of Pre-order, and hype before and during launch, retailers charts putting it high, and then dropping off, and outside of Amazon, which means nothing, is not showing much in terms of legs.

*Citation required

It's had pretty good legs in the Media create threads, better than most people predicted it to be. Also, has a 90% sell through rate there as well

I mean I could be wrong

Well that generally happens when you make up stuff instead of looking up facts
 

vin-buc

Member
What's the Wii U software attach rate for Nintendo's IPs? You may be able to extrapolate future sales by attach rate ratios based on the coming years expected hardware sales.

It's too early to have such negative expectations of sales when the game (on a system who's software landscape is barren) is new - in both release/ip.
 
what new releases are there even next month? if there's not much besides Batman, then Splatoon could totally chart again (and if it does, I'll have called it a month in advance...yet again)
 
Wait, what? Maybe I'm missing something but how can you tell that from two days of sales?

How can he know it'll mirror the other markets? Anyway, the amount of buyer frequency and rankings at retailers are dropping since the launch few days, so I think it's a better assumption from my point of view that the game is frontloaded, but take that as you will. I know some people won't care until June.

Except it did. It's already showed legs in every territory that isn't the US. The only reason you don't see legs in the US so far is because you're not going to get reports of those legs until next month in the US since that's the only territory to not provide weekly numbers.

And of course Mario Kart moved hardware. Nothing moves Nintendo hardware like Mario Kart.



It's fair to say that with a few exceptions (with Splatoon not being one of those) many of the games such as Witcher, GTA and Minecraft continue to have a staying power on the charts of most western territories. Nintendo games are usually not that different proportionally and considering most of Splatoon's marketing push was in both Japan and the US, that particular awareness and lasting power is bound to reflect more.

You have only 1 week (and some less than that) extra in those other territories, we have no info about "real legs" outside of Japan.

Nope, Japan and NA will have nothing similar to eachother regarding splatoon. Dont' see it, and it doesn't make sense.

But of course we'll just have to wait till June NPD to see. Luckily we are near half way through the month.

*Citation required

It's had pretty good legs in the Media create threads, better than most people predicted it to be. Also, has a 90% sell through rate there as well



Well that generally happens when you make up stuff instead of looking up facts

This isn't a media create thread.
 

Kriken

Member
what new releases are there even next month? if there's not much besides Batman, then Splatoon could totally chart again (and if it does, I'll have called it a month in advance...yet again)

June
Massive Chalice (Xbox One, PC) - June 1
The Escapists (PS4) - June 2
Heroes of the Storm (PC) - June 2
Lord of Magna: Maiden Heaven (3DS) - June 2
Adventures of Pip (Wii U, PC) - June 4
Wander (PS4) - June 4
You Must Build a Boat (PC, Mac, Linux, iOS, Android) - June 4
D4: Dark Dreams Don't Die (PC) - June 5
Steamworld Dig (Xbox One) - June 5
The Swapper (Xbox One) - June 5
The Elder Scrolls Online (Xbox One, PS4) - June 9
Operation Abyss: New Tokyo Legacy (Vita) - June 9
Kholat (PC) - June 10
Alone in the Dark: Illumination (PC) - June 11
Dr.Mario: Miracle Cure (3DS) - June 11
Lego Jurassic World (Xbox One, Xbox 360, PlayStation 4, PlayStation 3, Wii U, Wii, 3DS, Vita, PC) - June 12
Payday 2: Crimewave Edition (Xbox One, PS4) - June 16
Canvaleon (Wii U) - June 18
Batman: Arkham Knight (Xbox One, PS4, PC) - June 23
Devil May Cry 4: Special Edition (Xbox One, PS4, PC) - June 23
Final Fantasy XIV: Heavensward (PS4, PS3, PC) - June 23
Planetside 2 (PS4) - June 23
Ride (Xbox One, 360, PS4, PS3, PC) - June 23
Art Academy: Home Studio (Wii U) - June 25
Fort Meow (PC, iOS) - June 25
Hyperdimension Neptunia­ Re;Birth3: V Generation (Vita) - June 30
J-Stars Victory VS+ (PS4, PS3, Vita) - June 30
Samurai Warriors Chronicles 3 (3DS, Vita) - June 30

http://www.gameinformer.com/b/news/archive/2015/06/01/2015-video-game-release-schedule.aspx

So yeah, Batman is the big name here

Edit: What are the chances DMC4 charts? What did DmC:DE do?

This isn't a media create thread.

You sidestepped my question entirely, where's your evidence?
 

frizby

Member
There's no hate on splatoon, you're just spinning it that way in your head because you refuse to believe the game didn't do anything but amazing, when it most likely did not and will continue to not. Saying people are hating on the game because the question words like "great sales" is desperate.

I don't own the game or plan to buy it. And nobody sounds desperate here but you.

I mean I could be wrong, it's subjective an all...

It really isn't.

...but I don't think there's any real legs for this game. I don't see it looking around me.

Anecdotal evidence from your ass?

Nobody's buying Splatoon in my living room either. Must be tanking.
 

BadWolf

Member
Sony needs to drop the PS4's price by $100 sooner rather than later, they need to maintain/increase momentum.

(Yeah it's winning the generation by a mile but that's not enough, they need to be selling more consoles)
 

heidern

Junior Member
Fact of the matter is that the big three need to start embracing the mobile, indie movement. That's where the losses are going. If sony, ms, or nintendo can start churning out games like clash of clans, etc, it will be a game changer. Personally, I think Nintendo would be the first, and I think NX is that entry entirely.

Yeah, Nintendo are already working with indies and mobile developers on things like Shovel Knight and Puzzles vs Dragons. They are going to make mobile games themselves too. The lower their hardware prices the more they can tap into this. I don't see any way for Sony or MS to benefit from this because people are not going to pay $400 to play indie/mobile standard games when there's better/cheaper alternatives for that.
 

NotLiquid

Member
You have only 1 week (and some less than that) extra in those other territories

Which is, you know, more than the two days in the US, so to act as if we don't have info on "legs", especially those vital post-release weeks that the US haven't shown info for yet, is disingenuous.

Nope, Japan and NA will have nothing similar to eachother regarding splatoon. Dont' see it, and it doesn't make sense.

Well it seems you already made up your mind when you came into this thread so I'm not really sure why I'm trying to convince you otherwise at this point.
 
I don't own the game or plan to buy it. And nobody sounds desperate here but you.



It really isn't.



Anecdotal evidence from your ass?

Nobody's buying Splatoon in my living room either. Must be tanking.

No I'm pretty sure you're desperate and are trying really hard to change a subjective viewpoint I have. Also saying I hate a game just because.

Yes I guess 500 stores is anecdotal now.

I'll just Bookmark the last couple pages of this thread and see you all in june.

Well it seems you already made up your mind when you came into this thread so I'm not really sure why I'm trying to convince you otherwise at this point.

You haven't actually given me a reason to consider it, especially since in this post you are also not taking into consideration gaming market size and population.

Anyway we'll look back at this thread in June.
 
Sony needs to drop the PS4's price by $100 sooner rather than later, they need to maintain/increase momentum.

(Yeah it's winning the generation by a mile but that's not enough, they need to be selling more consoles)

Sony is forecasting a half smaller profits for SCE this FY compared to last FY. I think that pretty much tells us that there will be a big $100 price cut.I don't think $50 cut would result that big drop in profits as the manfacturing costs have also dropped.
 

Jamix012

Member
It's a pretty front loaded game from what I'm seeing, tons of Pre-order, and hype before and during launch, retailers charts putting it high, and then dropping off, and outside of Amazon, which means nothing, is not showing much in terms of legs.

I mean I could be wrong, it's subjective an all, but I don't think there's any real legs for this game. I don't see it looking around me.

Seeing as it seems to be very leggy in Japan I'd say you're way off the mark. The US isn't Japan, but I'd be surprised if it doesn't carry over somewhat. In general new IPs are the opposite of front loaded as long as they're well recieved.
 
People who think Splatoon will have big legs are dreaming Imo. Some games do, bigger games . Don't see Splatoon having big legs at all. Will see next NPD.
 

frizby

Member
No I'm pretty sure you're desperate and are trying really hard to change a subjective viewpoint I have. Also saying I hate a game just because.

Yes I guess 500 stores is anecdotal now.

I'll just Bookmark the last couple pages of this thread and see you all in june.

Oh shit folks. We got us an insider here!

You may want to keep an eye on your PMs.
 
Sony needs to drop the PS4's price by $100 sooner rather than later, they need to maintain/increase momentum.

(Yeah it's winning the generation by a mile but that's not enough, they need to be selling more consoles)

They need to be prepared for the drop though financially, it's more than just the console itself that will gain less profits, you also have retailer contracts, and a few toher things Sony will need to consider for a price drop of $100.
 
There's no way Splatoon won't chart again in June. I know it's VERY anecdotal but the highest sales for the game at the store I work at were the Tuesday following release, which was in June, because people just assume new game = Tuesday. Being a Wii U game it will almost certainly plummet in July but I think we'll still see a strong showing at the end of this month.
 

phanphare

Banned
There's no way Splatoon won't chart again in June. I know it's VERY anecdotal but the highest sales for the game at the store I work at were the Tuesday following release, which was in June, because people just assume new game = Tuesday. Being a Wii U game it will almost certainly plummet in July but I think we'll still see a strong showing at the end of this month.

could have also been the new map and mode were unlocked on monday June 1st

until then nobody knew when or how the content would start rolling out and getting a new map only 3 days after launch was certainly encouraging
 
could have also been the new map and mode were unlocked on monday June 1st

until then nobody knew when or how the content would start rolling out and getting a new map only 3 days after launch was certainly encouraging

Good point! Didn't even think of that. I'm sure that definitely convinced some people who were on the fence.
 

Crema

Member
Not one person said it doesn't matter...just that ps4 and x1 never has had those customers to begin with. No one said it doesn't matter or is a good thing.
In a month where Minecraft was the fourth best selling game at retail - exclusively on Playstation and Xbox platforms, are you sure about that?
 

NotLiquid

Member
You haven't actually given me a reason to consider it, especially since in this post you are also not taking into consideration gaming market size and population.

Anyway we'll look back at this thread in June.

You do realize that if you're making the claim about me not taking the market size into consideration then this falls even less in your favor right? The US is a much bigger market than the UK and Japan. That those lesser territories sustained Splatoon for a more extended period with great numbers is a good sign that it's solid US debut has a more widespread market that hadn't been breached yet by the time it's two day performance was reported.

Well, there's Pokemon and Animal Crossing.

And that of course. I'd say MK has a slightly more worldwide pull than Animal Crossing (due to legacy generally) but Pokémon is definitely a solid contender too.
 

Jigorath

Banned
There doesn't seem to be much middle ground between "Splatoon is massive success!" and "Splatoon is a total bomba!". I think it just did alright. Now we have to see whether or not it has legs.
 
You do realize that if you're making the claim about me not taking the market size into consideration then this falls even less in your favor right? The US is a much bigger market than the UK and Japan. That those lesser territories sustained Splatoon for a more extended period with great numbers is a good sign that it's solid US debut has a more widespread market that hadn't been breached yet by the time it's two day performance was reported.

You're ignoring population which c-

I'll see you in June NPD.
 
Sony needs to drop the PS4's price by $100 sooner rather than later, they need to maintain/increase momentum.

(Yeah it's winning the generation by a mile but that's not enough, they need to be selling more consoles)

3rd party marketing deals and bundles are coming so they are going to be fine mostly but $299 drop will bring big push if they do which is mostly not going to happen until Morpheus launches which is the right time to do if they want VR big success, so we get 1TB update over 500GB and might see heavy bundling meanwhile from retailers.
 

scrambles

Neo Member
Yeah, Nintendo are already working with indies and mobile developers on things like Shovel Knight and Puzzles vs Dragons. They are going to make mobile games themselves too. The lower their hardware prices the more they can tap into this. I don't see any way for Sony or MS to benefit from this because people are not going to pay $400 to play indie/mobile standard games when there's better/cheaper alternatives for that.

It's like I said when Vita first was announced.
Should've been a phone.
 
You can search for all posts by a user in the thread by

1) Go to the main page with the thread listing.
2) Click on the # of posts hyperlink for the thread you want to search.
3) On the user list of who has posted in the thread, click on the # next to the user you want to search for.

Thanks.

Sorry you have to handhold some of us Junior Members.
 

Meier

Member
I thought I saw a hint a couple pages back, but I'm not certain.

Amazon charts are not a strong indicator. People need to stop using them as an overall representation.

The guy he responded said it's dropping at retail. This poster pointed out that there's no drop at one very large retailer. Amazon may or may not be representative of overall retail success or failure, but where is there ANY proof that it's dropping?
 
It's a pretty front loaded game from what I'm seeing, tons of Pre-order, and hype before and during launch, retailers charts putting it high, and then dropping off, and outside of Amazon, which means nothing, is not showing much in terms of legs.

I mean I could be wrong, it's subjective an all, but I don't think there's any real legs for this game. I don't see it looking around me.

I was mainly directing you to that single point you made.

That new IP's tend to be frontloaded. Yes, that can be very true... if the game only serviced a small niche, or if it didn't hit like it could have. Then you have those new IP's that shape not only the console they released on, but to degrees the entire market. CoD, Gears, Halo, and the Wii "" line are some to look at.

Popularity, word of mouth, signifies how frontloaded a games sales will be. And that's nothing you can get from it's first month of sales. Hell, even second and third month can hide an emerging trend.

You may be completely right about Splatoon. But it's first "month" of sales (in this case two days) won't tell you anymore than what it did in those first two days. And you can try to read tea leaves from sites like Amazon, but that's a crapshoot. Don't stake everything on it.

Most of all, have fun. NPD is our own personal monthly soap opera. That we get to influence. Some of us add wit, some add fact, some add wild speculation. At the end, hopefully, it is an interesting dramatic reading reflection of the current market. And probably not something to be proud of, but definitely something to marvel at.
 

vin-buc

Member
3rd party marketing deals and bundles are coming so they are going to be fine mostly but $299 drop will bring big push if they do which is mostly not going to happen until Morpheus launches which is the right time to do if they want VR big success, so we get 1TB update over 500GB and might see heavy bundling meanwhile from retailers.

I'm not sure about the timing here. Why do you think a $100 ps4 price drop would mean a big push for Morpheus right before it's release? I'm sure the expectations are to sell Morpheus to current PS4 owners. If they drop the price this year more potential buyers for Morpheus next year. I wouldn't think Sony are expecting to sell Morpheus and PS4 together. That could be $600 (guestimating at $300 ps4 $300 morpheus prices) at point of purchase which is doubtful for many potential consumers.

I hope they drop to $299 this year. That would be pure bloody shark waters and put the competition in a cobra clutch =)
 

Opiate

Member
As for future analysis on price drops:

I think it's important to point out that price drops do not automatically equate to sustained success. Examples: late price drops (i.e. those after 2012) on the Wii and PS3/360 were not impactful long term. All created a spike which quickly abated and did not stop the systems' sales declines.

This suggests that in some cases, the barrier to sustained increases in sales aren't price but instead compelling software. That shouldn't be a surprise, but it needs to be stated out loud. I think the Wii U is likely in that situation; a price drop even to $100 would not suddenly shift the system in to overdrive, as the systems' problem is less price and more that it just isn't very appealing to most people. The PS4, however, does strike me as something people find compelling, and it would likely benefit significantly from a price drop.

I could be wrong, of course. On either.
 
I was mainly directing you to that single point you made.

That new IP's tend to be frontloaded. Yes, that can be very true... if the game only serviced a small niche, or if it didn't hit like it could have. Then you have those new IP's that shape not only the console they released on, but to degrees the entire market. CoD, Gears, Halo, and the Wii "" line are some to look at.

Popularity, word of mouth, signifies how frontloaded a games sales will be. And that's nothing you can get from it's first month of sales. Hell, even second and third month can hide an emerging trend.

You may be completely right about Splatoon. But it's first "month" of sales (in this case two days) won't tell you anymore than what it did in those first two days. And you can try to read tea leaves from sites like Amazon, but that's a crapshoot. Don't stake everything on it.

Most of all, have fun. NPD is our own personal monthly soap opera. That we get to influence. Some of us add wit, some add fact, some add wild speculation. At the end, hopefully, it is an interesting dramatic reading reflection of the current market. And probably not something to be proud of, but definitely something to marvel at.

I didn't use Amazon at all.

But anywho, agree with soap opera.
 
As for future analysis on price drops:

I think it's important to point out that price drops do not automatically equate to sustained success. Examples: late price drops (i.e. those after 2012) on the Wii and PS3/360 were not impactful long term. All created a spike which quickly abated and did not stop the systems' sales declines.

This suggests that in some cases, the barrier to mass adoption isn't price but instead compelling software. That shouldn't be a surprise, but it needs to be stated out loud. I think the Wii U is likely in that situation; a price drop even to $100 would not suddenly shift the system in to overdrive, as the systems' problem is less price and more that it just isn't very appealing to most people. The PS4, however, does strike me as something people find compelling, and it would likely benefit significantly from a price drop.

I could be wrong, of course. On either.


As for 360/PS3, I think that a $99 price drop will have a sustainable increase in mass until he discontinuation of both consoles (iirc Sony said 2015 was the last year of the PS3, and MS said 2016 for the 360, haven't heard any new changes to that yet some I'm assuming it may still hold.)
 

Opiate

Member
As for 360/PS3, I think that a $99 price drop will have a sustainable increase in mass until he discontinuation of both consoles (iirc Sony said 2015 was the last year of the PS3, and MS said 2016 for the 360, haven't heard any new changes to that yet some I'm assuming it may still hold.)

Of course it's possible, but the last price drop did virtually nothing to stop both systems downward trajectories, so it seems unlikely that a further price drop would have such a dramatically different effect. I think both systems have simply been adopted by the people who want them, and there just isn't much of a well to pull from any longer.
 
Of course it's possible, but the last price drop didn't have a long term sustainable effect. I think the systems have simply been adopted by the people who want them, and there just isn't much of a well to pull from any longer.

Well there's the low market emerging countries. The equal or lesser of $99 there may give a small boost. China, Brazil, Oceania, ME, Africa, Asia. Then maybe a marginal but noticeable boost in the regular markets.

I think $99 may get the 360 past the PS2 in U.S. and ps3 past Wii in Germany/Japan. (at an equal or lesser price of $99.)

But I wouldn't expect much more than 2 million or so in general. maybe 3 if 360 still has the kick in NA it had last holiday.

But most likely I don't think we'll be seeing that $99 price drop. At this rate XBO/PS4 will be around the same price as them.
 

vin-buc

Member
Kinda switching gears here and i'm sure it was mentioned in another thread but this would impact next month NPD's.

The 1TB xbox1 master chief bundle is $400 - what's the thinking here? Shouldn't they be replacing the 500GB sku and price the 1TB at $350? It's crazy to me that there is an xbox sku at $400. They have a hard time selling at $350. Is this their plan to do a $299 500GB sku this holiday and drop the 1TB to $350 perceptive price drop?
 

noshten

Member
#1 game on Amazon 2 weeks after launch. Yeah, it's over for Splatoon.

Yep top game right now for
Amazon France
Amazon Germany
Amazon US
Amazon Japan it's #2 behind Rhythm Tengoku

Still charting in the top 10 for
Amazon UK
Amazon Canada

It's a BOMBA


I'll just Bookmark the last couple pages of this thread and see you all in june.



You haven't actually given me a reason to consider it, especially since in this post you are also not taking into consideration gaming market size and population.

Anyway we'll look back at this thread in June.

Whart are your expectations in that case,

Mine are 1 million sold by the end of June.

That seems perfectly realistic in light of the current figures we have. Especially as Splatoon is one of the best titles to get digitally on the Wii U.
 
My fear with almost all of those alternatives is that they're all equally risky imo (VR is just a complete unknown for example). F2P/Mobile, while easily the most lucrative at the moment, still relies on almost an even harder job than AAA. You essentially have to make a good enough game to have people putting TONS of hours, and then wanting to pay into the system to get X via microtransactions. Either that, or you need them to play enough to get money purely off of ads by essentially providing a service for "free" via events, etc. If you succeed, you make TONS of money, but there's no guarantee on how long that will last.

Both F2P/Mobile are still super unpredictable at the moment, and I honestly think that unlike the couple of expensive safe bets in the AAA industry, there are seriously 0 safe bets in mobile, but the opportunity cost (at least initially) is lower. If I'm not mistaken, the path F2P & Mobile take is by making small amounts of money over lots and lots of people. The number of games people are playing that can be in the field at once must by definition be smaller, as only so many players can enter the space if at all, even if there are a lot of people playing on mobile. In addition, it's essentially reduced the value of games to essentially free in the minds of most consumers. I think the AAA industry has a ton of problems too, but I think there really needs to be SOME middle ground that emerges either from AAA, mobile, PC or some new thing where F2P and a range of pricing schemes ($/month, lower up-front costs, etc.) can coexist.

I just want to highlight this post as being outstanding.

Bolded is why I think pubs have become so conservative on the big releases. Trying to figure out what works outside of Console while playing it very safe on what is released for Consoles as everything outside is high risk.
 

Diffense

Member
Splatoon's placement seems promising for 48 hours of sales of a new franchise on a console owned by just over 4 million people.

If even 500,000 people in America eventually buy Splatoon that's almost 1/8 of current Wii U owners.
If it did 150K on day 1 (including digital sales) that's a very good start, all things considered.
 

donny2112

Member
The guy he responded said it's dropping at retail. This poster pointed out that there's no drop at one very large retailer. Amazon may or may not be representative of overall retail success or failure, but where is there ANY proof that it's dropping?

On GameStop, it's the #11 game when sorted by best-selling.
On Best Buy, it's the #3 game when sorted by best-selling.
On Wal-Mart, it's the #1 game when sorted by best-selling.

For Amazon:
It was the #2 best-selling game for May (individual SKU).
For June so far, it's the #1 best-selling game.
 
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