This is my ballpark prediciton for the moment (see below), I think -- vs the $399 PS5 Digital launch console -- most of the minor components come in at the same or very similar cost to that; and that 24GB G7 & 2TB PCIe5 NVMe in 2027 comes in roughly the same or even a bit less than the 16GB G6 & 825GB PCIe4 NVMe did in 2020 (even with recent price bumps).
With a suggested price point here of $599 (no disc drive as standard) that leaves them an extra ~$200 or so to spend vs the PS5 Digital, if they want to come in at launch roughly break even or with a very small loss.
I understand the APU in the original PS5 was believed to be around $150-160 on the BoM, so this allows them to spend a little over double that on the PS6 APU while also leaving a few extra bucks to further bolster thermals and power delivery/management a little as they're likely gonna have to push those pretty hard this go around. The APU of course will be much more expensive given the cost of modern node wafers and the specs I'm suggesting below will probably put it at the top end of what Sony are comfortable with in terms of die size.
I know the PS5 Pro comes in at $699 now, but 1) we're talking 2+yrs from now, 2) that's a low volume device on a 2yr old node at launch vs a higher volume device on a 3+yr old node at launch, 3) it's marketed to a more hardcore audience and 4) the money men likely wanted it marked up to get a short term cost recoup and knew they could largely get away with it. I don't think it's particularly representative of where a mainstream launch PS console needs to be price-wise; whether that be in terms of cost or what is a viable price to get the larger consumer base on board.