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[GhaleonEB]

PPP says Romney has around 60% of the early voting. So Santorum would have to win tomorrow's voting by around 5-8% to barely squeak out a win. Not gonna happen

PPP's numbers also take Romeny's lead with early voters into account, and they show the race neck and neck. Seeing Romney's early voter lead and assuming that sandbags him out of reach is a poor assumption.

 

[Tamanon]

Newt Gingrich To Afghanistan: 'Figure Out How To Live Your Own Miserable Life'

While I admire the first sentiment, the second one's just mean.

 

[Clevinger]

PPP says Romney has around 60% of the early voting. So Santorum would have to win tomorrow's voting by around 5-8% to barely squeak out a win. Not gonna happen

I don't think that's right. Their last poll had Romney up 39% to 37%. That's factoring in all that early voting. PPP tonight said things are looking better for Santorum, so I don't think he'd have to gain as much as you're thinking. In that same poll, without the early voting, Santorum leads Romney 39-34.

 

[AlteredBeast]

I don't think that's right. Their last poll had Romney up 39% to 37%. That's factoring in all that early voting. PPP tonight said things are looking better for Santorum, so I don't think he'd have to gain as much as you're thinking. In that same poll, without the early voting, Santorum leads Romney 39-34.

The people Republicans of Michigan are retarded, apparently.

 

[Tamanon]

It's funny how neither Santorum nor Romney winning Michigan will have any tangible difference based on the delegates, but could drastically alter future races without meaning anything.

Kinda like the 3 states Santorum won last.

 

[Ecotic]

I'm just glad Michigan tomorrow is looking to be a race worth watching. I feared it was becoming a pattern now for a not-Romney to win a State and then bomb the next time around when he had the chance to seal the deal (think Newt Gingrich in Florida). Santorum sure has been doing everything possible to throw it away.

 

[markatisu]

I'm just glad Michigan tomorrow is looking to be a race worth watching. I feared it was becoming a pattern now for a not-Romney to win a State and then bomb the next time around when he had the chance to seal the deal (think Newt Gingrich in Florida). Santorum sure has been doing everything possible to throw it away.

LOL Santorum has not really done anything different, its just people started paying attention to what he actually says

 

[PantherLotus]

That Obamanopoly cartoon is so fucking offensive.

 

[cousins]

What other talking points are there? Since there seems to be a wealth of them, you should be able to link me to them.


Since we are on the subject of liberals and their views on wealth:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=35532310&postcount=37

Truth's a bitch. Even Nations themselves are built on the backs of others.

 

[markatisu]

Interesting update from Nate, can't wait to see how it unfolds

Twenty-eight of the 30 delegates in Michigan’s Republican primary will be awarded, two at a time, to the winner in each of the state’s 14 Congressional districts; only two will go to the candidate who takes the most votes statewide.

There are competing theories about just whom this might favor. One hypothesis holds that although Mitt Romney might dominate in Detroit’s wealthy suburbs, he is either an underdog or no better than even money against Rick Santorum pretty much everywhere else in the state. Since winning a district by 20 percentage points does you no more good in the delegate count than winning one by 2 points, that means Mr. Romney could have some wasted votes.

The other theory holds that Mr. Romney’s voters tend to be concentrated in districts where turnout will be low. This is not necessarily a reflection of subpar enthusiasm for his campaign; instead, it’s because some of these wealthy suburban areas are paired with cities like Detroit and Ann Arbor that vote heavily Democratic. Therefore, Mr. Romney could win a Congressional district where 15,000 people turn out to vote in the Republican primary, but lose another one where 75,000 do. But both count equally on the delegate scoreboard.

 

[Measley]

You have to wonder how competitive Romney would truly be if he didn't have so much money to throw around.

 

[zargle]

You have to wonder how competitive Romney would truly be if he didn't have so much money to throw around.

Do you mean if there was not unlimited SuperPAC money? That coin goes both ways, since the other candidates would have less money as well. I would think he would have wrapped up the nomination easily by now since he would still have a substantial money lead over the other candidates from a couple years worth of preparation, while the others would be far behind in donations.

 

[Clevinger]

New PPP MI poll out tonight.

@ppppolls
Our combined 2 night tracking numbers in Michigan: Santorum 38, Romney 37, Paul 14, Gingrich 9
@ppppolls
Our Monday only numbers in Michigan: Santorum 39, Romney 34, Paul 15, Gingrich 10
@ppppolls
Our Monday only numbers of people who didn't already vote in Michigan: Santorum 41, Romney 31, Paul 16, Gingrich 9

oh shit, can he do it? Santorum has a slight edge vs Romney even with the early voting factored in.

edit: Oh, shit.

Romney leads among Republicans in Michigan. It's Democrats putting Santorum over the top. We'll see if they really show up...

Nevermind. I'd never count on Democrats to show up for a vote.

 

[Narpas Sword0]

Romney has risen in MI polls, but sanatorium has not really fallen. Romneys money is not killing him. If sanatorium finishes respectably in MI I feel he will hold his momentum in super Tuesday. He doesn't have to win.

 

[markatisu]

Romney has risen in MI polls, but sanatorium has not really fallen. Romneys money is not killing him. If sanatorium finishes respectably in MI I feel he will hold his momentum in super Tuesday. He doesn't have to win.

Exactly, Santorum can lose as long as he keeps it close and takes Ohio

Romney needs to be blowing them out in these battleground states and he is not doing it, its gotta be pissing him off big time and with crazy ass Santorum of all people

 

[PhoenixDark]

https://twitter.com/#!/ppppolls/status/174336896019861507

edit: I didn't know the current polls were taking early voting into consideration. Wow

 

[Black Republican]

New PPP MI poll out tonight.


oh shit, can he do it? Santorum has a slight edge vs Romney even with the early voting factored in.

edit: Oh, shit.

Romney Playlist: 2pac - Me Against the World


oh mittens

 

[cousins]

New PPP MI poll out tonight.


oh shit, can he do it? Santorum has a slight edge vs Romney even with the early voting factored in.

edit: Oh, shit.



Nevermind. I'd never count on Democrats to show up for a vote.

If democrats actually change the tide in the michigan primary it could lead to a lot of (warranted) negative press.

 

[GhaleonEB]

If democrats actually change the tide in the michigan primary it could lead to a lot of (warranted) negative press.

Regardless of the margins, if Romney loses the state you know that's what he'll be pointing to.

 

[Clevinger]

Though why the hell do they have open primaries if they don't want democrats and indies to participate?

 

[sc0la]

That Obamanopoly cartoon is so fucking offensive.

please. Offensive isn't the adjective you are looking for.

EDIT: the obama - rosa parks - business on MLK day one was offensive

 

[cousins]

please. Offensive isn't the adjective you are looking for.

Words are certainly lacking.

 

[GhaleonEB]

please. Offensive isn't the adjective you are looking for.

"Idiotic" is what I'll go with.

Nate Silver just now:

I think our Michigan forecast might literally show a tie.​

https://twitter.com/#!/fivethirtyeight/status/174340084752060418

In addition to PPP's final poll, Josh Marshal mentions there's another due late tonight. At the very least, tomorrow will prove somewhat suspenseful.

 

[Zzoram]

Though why the hell do they have open primaries if they don't want democrats and indies to participate?

Good question.

 

[Black Republican]

Though why the hell do they have open primaries if they don't want democrats and indies to participate?

just for the fuck of it i guess

 

[cousins]

Good question.

Perhaps they don't expect the other party to try and sabotage their primary? Just a thought.

There's a clear difference between participating and participating with malicious intent.

 

[ivysaur12]

EDIT: I'm a slowpoke.

Though why the hell do they have open primaries if they don't want democrats and indies to participate?

Exactly. I have no idea how this will play out, but I am so interested.

 

[Suikoguy]

I really don't think urging democrats to vote in this mess is a good idea...

 

[Clevinger]

All right, this is just insane. This primary is pure madness.

55% of Santorum Democrats in Michigan like him, 40% don't. Looks like mix between sincere votes and Operation Hilarity

So it might be Democrats that actually like Santorum that gives him the win.

0_o

 

[PhoenixDark]

I really don't think urging democrats to vote in this mess is a good idea...

Why not? It's an open primary, isn't illegal or immoral, and has been done for decades. In 08 I voted for Huckabee, although mainly because the democratic primary didn't count that year.

I'm most likely voting for Santorum tomorrow, although I wouldn't be surprised if I'm so disgusted at the thought of selecting him that I chose Ron Paul.

If democrats swing this to Santorum...ahahaha. Romney will try to spin it as sabotage but the fact that this is close enough to be swayed by democrats is proof that he's a weak candidate

 

[markatisu]

Though why the hell do they have open primaries if they don't want democrats and indies to participate?

If Romney were a strong candidate it would not matter, see 2008 when the GOP tried to do the same thing during the Obama/Clinton battle and it did jack shit

If democrats swing this to Santorum...ahahaha. Romney will try to spin it as sabotage but the fact that this is close enough to be swayed by democrats is proof that he's a weak candidate

Awesome we finally agree on something!

 

[gutter_trash]

Why not? It's an open primary, isn't illegal or immoral, and has been done for decades. In 08 I voted for Huckabee, although mainly because the democratic primary didn't count that year.

I'm most likely voting for Santorum tomorrow, although I wouldn't be surprised if I'm so disgusted at the thought of selecting him that I chose Ron Paul.

If democrats swing this to Santorum...ahahaha. Romney will try to spin it as sabotage but the fact that this is close enough to be swayed by democrats is proof that he's a weak candidate

dude! every dem should vote for Santorum and quit loving Ron Paul

 

[cousins]

All right, this is just insane. This primary is pure madness.



So it might be Democrats that actually like Santorum that gives him the win.

0_o

Of course they "like" him, he represents the collapse of the GOP.

 

[Ecotic]

Intrade for Michigan tomorrow is at 50/50. People don't know what to think, lol.

 

[Suikoguy]

Why not? It's an open primary, isn't illegal or immoral, and has been done for decades. In 08 I voted for Huckabee, although mainly because the democratic primary didn't count that year.

I'm most likely voting for Santorum tomorrow, although I wouldn't be surprised if I'm so disgusted at the thought of selecting him that I chose Ron Paul.

If democrats swing this to Santorum...ahahaha. Romney will try to spin it as sabotage but the fact that this is close enough to be swayed by democrats is proof that he's a weak candidate

I'll agree it's within the rules, and nothing illegal about it.
It just seems a bit dishonest to me.

In regards to the previous attempts by republicans to do the same, I thought the same.
Then again, Hillary or Obama would have beaten McCain, so the outcome of that election would not have mattered anyways. In this example, on the other hand, one of the candidates is considerably more toxic in the general election.

 

[Black Republican]

its a week old but PPP had santorum creaming romney for march 3rd Washington caucus poll:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/02/santorum-leads-in-washington.html

He leads there with 38% to 27% for Mitt Romney, 15% for Ron Paul, and 12% for Newt Gingrich.

then again PPP been kinda iffy on caucus states

 

[RustyNails]

That Obamanopoly cartoon is so fucking offensive.

...everything that passes off as "joke" or "funny" by a conservative is at least a little bit offensive. Nothing new here I guess.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

It is amazing to see Romney struggle this much to wing Michigan

 

[Brawndo Addict]

Does anyone else get really annoyed by polls that don't put the margin of error in the first few sentences alongside the results? This drives me crazy, especially given the media's inclination to post misleading headlines like "Romney's pulling away" or "Santorum with a late lead" when the difference in candidates may only be 1-2% and is dwarfed by the margin of error being 5-6%.

 

[PhoenixDark]

It is amazing to see Romney struggle this much to wing Michigan

As Nate Silver points out, he's really just obliterating Santorum in one very large district, while Santorum is winning just about everywhere else. I still like his general election chances based on the country's environment/outlook, but there's no question: he is the weakest presidential candidate since Dukakis.

 

[Clevinger]

@fivethirtyeight
Another MI poll out from Baydoun Consulting. Romney +2. And/but, they had him +8 a few days ago. scr.bi/wAn2b9

.

 

[hydragonwarrior]

Poligaf, I think this would be an amazing scenario:

1. Santorum wins tommorow
2. Day after, he proclaims that creationism must be taught in all schools.

 

[Black Republican]

Romneys worst nightmare:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0xBc8WrCc7k

dat coverage x10 if he loses MI

 

[RustyNails]

If democrats swing this to Santorum...ahahaha. Romney will try to spin it as sabotage but the fact that this is close enough to be swayed by democrats is proof that he's a weak candidate

Doesn't matter. Romney still would've lost his home turf to a crazy man despite outspending him 10:1 in the month of february. The question wont be why Santorum won, but why can't Romney win. Operation chaos with Hillary did fuck all to Obama's margins 4 years ago.

 

[Particle Physicist]

It is amazing to see Romney struggle this much to wing Michigan

Seriously. So do people still think he can win the state over Obama?

 

[PhoenixDark]

I still think Romney will win, but if he doesn't...I think someone will jump in the race. There's plenty of time for someone to qualify for enough ballots to quickly overtake Romney's lead before the convention.

 

[Zzoram]

Poligaf, I think this would be an amazing scenario:

1. Santorum wins tommorow
2. Day after, he proclaims that creationism must be taught in all schools.

If he said that, it would only solidify his GOP base support.

 

[PantherLotus]

You guys are both overestimating the backlash against cross-party voting for weaker candidates and underestimating those that actually do it. It happens in every election where they're allowed, but it rarely gets far enough into a primary season to actually make a difference. It's a time-honored tradition and won't be a story longer than a day or two after Super Tuesday.

 

[Zzoram]

I honestly think Santorum has a better shot of beating Obama because he could energize the GOP base and improve their voter turn out. Romney might get more independents but many evangelicals might stay home.

Also, there is a lot of simmering disapproval of the super rich right now, and Romney embodies the super rich.

 

[markatisu]

As Nate Silver points out, he's really just obliterating Santorum in one very large district, while Santorum is winning just about everywhere else. I still like his general election chances based on the country's environment/outlook, but there's no question: he is the weakest presidential candidate since Dukakis.

So you think he is the weakest candidate since Dukakis but still think can overtake Obama in the general??