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PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread

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C

cartoon_soldier

Member
DeathbyVolcano said:
It won't matter. If the economy is growing all year and is successfull in July and August and September, it won't matter.
Click to expand...

Not really true. If the public feels like we are heading back into recession = bad news for Obama.

Interestingly, Ezra's blog covered this topic with 2010 and 2011 numbers. 2010 had better annualized growth but 2011 felt better in terms of recovery.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...tback/2012/03/01/gIQAQNGGkR_blog.html#excerpt

And I just apparently end up copy pasting the full post:

That's because we judge the economy based on its trend more than its level. The strongest growth in 2010 came early in the year. In the first quarter, the economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.9. By the fourth quarter, it had slowed to 2.3 percent. We lost speed, and it felt like we were losing our recovery.

In 2011, the trend was just the opposite. The first quarter was terrible. Growth was 0.4 percent. But by the fourth quarter, growth had picked up to 3 percent. We had gained speed, and it felt like we were finally recovering. Still does, in fact.

President Obama's reelection message is that America is making an economic comeback. And the facts back him up. The country is richer now that it was before the financial crisis, or than it's been at any other point in its history.

But the key to his message working is that, in November, it feels like we're coming back. And a lot of that will have to do with the distribution of growth this year. It's easy to imagine 2012 beating 2011's 1.7 percent growth, but if that growth comes mostly in the first two quarters, and the economy slows a bit in the back half of the year -- perhaps due to a summer spike in gas prices -- it will be bad news for Obama. Conversely, if the second quarter is a bit slower, but the economy accelerates in the third and fourth quarters, it will be very good news for Obama.
Click to expand...

That is Obama's biggest concern. Recovery slowing down in 3rd quarter.
 
J

jamesinclair

Banned
jamesinclair said:
Car sales for February shall be released this Thursday. Will be very interesting. Car sales are usually a good metric of economic growth, because it's a 8 year investment (and by investment, I mean money black hole) that people only make when theyre confident in the future . January was very strong, and Feb also probably started off quite well, especially with presidents day deals.

And then gas went up 25 cents in 7 days.

Will be interesting to see how the market reacts.

My guess? Truck sales will be down a good clip, and wont exceed car sales until September (they beat car sales during 8 months of 2011).

Hybrid/ev/diesel will see increases, but nothing major. Smartcar will see a 10% increase. Feb will still be up YoY but only just, thanks to a strong start.
Click to expand...


The Obama economy is reaching amazing levels of prosperity



U.S. auto sales accelerated to the fastest pace in four years, led by Chrysler Group LLC and a surprise gain from General Motors Co., as demand strengthened throughout automakers' lineups.

GM deliveries rose 1.1 percent to 209,306 cars and light trucks, beating analysts' estimates for a 4.8 percent decrease. Chrysler sales increased 40 percent to 133,521 and Ford Motor Co.'s climbed 14 percent to 178,644. Toyota Motor Corp. and Honda Motor Co. deliveries each gained 12 percent, while Nissan Motor Co. sales rose 16 percent.

Light-vehicle sales in February accelerated to a 15.1 million seasonally adjusted annual rate, exceeding the 14.2 million pace that was the average of 17 analysts' estimates. The results were the best since February 2008 when U.S. sales ran at a 15.5 million rate, according to Autodata Corp.
Click to expand...

Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/artic...rticlesM06EWN0UQVIB01-M08B2.DTL#ixzz1nx9eIbmQ


Of course, gas prices should provide a lovely roadblock for March sales.

And good.

Too many idiots running out and buying 15mpg money-holes.


From feb 2011, car sales up 23.9% and truck sales up 7.6%

http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-autosales.html#autosalesC



Heres something nice. Percent change from feb 2011.

Toyota Prius 20,589 52.1%

And my prediction of a 10% increase in smart fortwo sales?

Smart Up 58.9 Percent

Read more: http://wot.motortrend.com/german-sa...at-sees-sales-surge-175279.html#ixzz1nxAWaCuv


The scion iQ only sold 864 vehicles, which is less than what I expected. I thought the car would do better, at around 2,000 a month. Mind you, the entire scion brand does less than 5,000 a month, which is odd, because I see so damn many of them.

Havent seen a single ad though. The smart "big" ads that ran in the fall actually produces a 10%+ jump in sales.
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
DeathbyVolcano said:
It still won't matter because of record stock numbers, growing stock levels, and the absolute joke that is the republican party's nominee.
Click to expand...

Stock market level to my knowledge has never been a significant factor in election prospects. Unemployment rate is the really one factor that matters above all else.
 
T

The Librarian

Banned
Tom_Cody said:
WTF is going on in Massachusetts?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...assachusetts_senate_brown_vs_warren-2093.html

Allegiance aside, I simply don't understand the political factors here. Warren is a political superstar in liberal MA. What is the foundation of Scott Brown's support? Should't she be solidly ahead by 8+ points
Click to expand...

That poll where Brown was ahead by nine points was shown to be dubious. The only other poll there is Rasmussen. The other polls that were released at the time of that Suffolk poll had Warren up by 3/4 points, but they're not up there.
 
T

Tom_Cody

Member
Dax01 said:
That poll where Brown was ahead by nine points was shown to be dubious. The only other poll there is Rasmussen. The other polls that were released at the time of that Suffolk poll had Warren up by 3/4 points, but they're not up there.
Click to expand...
Ok, that makes more sense.
 
M

markatisu

Member
Cheebo said:
Stock market level to my knowledge has never been a significant factor in election prospects. Unemployment rate is the really one factor that matters above all else.
Click to expand...

Stock market level since 2008 helps to predict a lot because nobody wants the crash that happened then to happen again. If the stock market is low that is enough for people not invested in the complete financial picture of America to hit the panic button.

Also if the recovery begins to slow in the 3rd quarter you won't see that result in unemployment till mid-late 4th Quarter or the 1st Quarter of 2013. People won't really see that either because retail starts hiring in late October for the holidays (Black Friday and Christmas) which always skews the unemployment issue.

So theoretically we could be on our way to a recession but nobody will see it in hard data till after the election.
 
X

XMonkey

lacks enthusiasm.
markatisu said:
Stock market level since 2008 helps to predict a lot because nobody wants the crash that happened then to happen again. If the stock market is low that is enough for people not invested in the complete financial picture of America to hit the panic button.
Click to expand...
This would seem alright, except the stock market is back to what it was in 2008 before the shit really hit the fan, which is kind of crazy to me and doesn't make sense. All it tells me is the stock market is just a fairly poor indicator of the health of the overall economy.
 
R

Rocket Scientist

Member
XMonkey said:
This would seem alright, except the stock market is back to what it was in 2008 before the shit really hit the fan, which is kind of crazy to me and doesn't make sense. All it tells me is the stock market is just a fairly poor indicator of the health of the overall economy.
Click to expand...
While I agree that it's crazy, stocks are also an indication of expectations. Stocks being high would imply that those investing expect good things. This doesn't mean that good things are going to keep coming, but for whatever reason, the expectations are positive.
 
T

TestOfTide

Banned
Tom_Cody said:
WTF is going on in Massachusetts?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...assachusetts_senate_brown_vs_warren-2093.html

Allegiance aside, I simply don't understand the political factors here. Warren is a political superstar in liberal MA. What is the foundation of Scott Brown's support? Should't she be solidly ahead by 8+ points
Click to expand...

Because the consequences that will result from scott voting for the blunt amendment aren't being shown yet.

And remember that Brown was only bale to win because it was an election in which people were least likely to vote against the most uncharismatic nominee imaginable. And he only won by 4 points.
 
X

XMonkey

lacks enthusiasm.
Rocket Scientist said:
While I agree that it's crazy, stocks are also an indication of expectations. Stocks being high would imply that those investing expect good things. This doesn't mean that good things are going to keep coming, but for whatever reason, the expectations are positive.
Click to expand...
I think the reasons for those positive expectations are shaky at best. I'm pretty skeptical of this recent uptick in the economy staying consistent, to be honest.
 
I

Invisible_Insane

Member
Tom_Cody said:
WTF is going on in Massachusetts?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...assachusetts_senate_brown_vs_warren-2093.html

Allegiance aside, I simply don't understand the political factors here. Warren is a political superstar in liberal MA. What is the foundation of Scott Brown's support? Should't she be solidly ahead by 8+ points
Click to expand...
Is she? It always appeared to me that she's more of a national liberal "superstar" than a local one.
ToxicAdam said:
There's going to be so much money thrown around in that Brown/Warren race. It has a chance to break an all-time record.
Click to expand...
Didn't they agree to some non-aggression pact? As far as outside money goes, anyway?
 
T

The Librarian

Banned
cartoon_soldier said:
People are still worried about the economy. Warren was winning with her income inequality, fairness speeches.
Click to expand...
If the economy is getting better, the only resort Republicans have is social issues. The general election hasn't even started; income inequality and economic fairness are going to be at the forefront. Give it time.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
jamesinclair said:
Too many idiots running out and buying 15mpg money-holes.
Click to expand...
I was in the USPS parking lot and I parked besides this huge ass gas-whore truck. The driver comes back from the facility and has a little difficulty getting inside his truck, even though I parked properly within the yellow lines. As my wife was getting in my car, this asshole tells her to next time learn to park cars with enough space between them, even though I was the driver. The nerve. If he had balls as he so tries to display with his truck, he'd tell it to my face instead of telling it to a girl and running away. I been driving for 12 years, no parking ticket, no speeding ticket, not a single bad thing in my driving history. In short, yeah they're all idiots.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
Dax01 said:
Ezra Klein: Our Corrupt Politics: It's Not All Money.

Reading through it now. Good read. :)
Click to expand...

Going to do that.

Love Ezra and love the wonkbook. Wonkbook + Plum Line = awesomesauce.

Another good one today, "The invisible welfare state of the top one percent"

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...rcent/2011/08/25/gIQANQRemR_blog.html#excerpt

There is also a pattern to these programs: The more a government social program benefits wealthier Americans, the less obtrusive it is. We design policies for the poor in ways that make it hard to escape the knowledge that the government is providing help. But richer Americans rely on programs that are “submerged.”

The Tax Policy Center estimates that eliminating all individual income tax expenditures would raise levies on the bottom 20 percent by $931. For the top 1 percent, the tax increase would be almost $280,000.
Click to expand...
 
T

thatbox

Banned
gaspricepoll1.png

Btw, only 1% of poll respondents—again, correctly in my view—argued that “Not using U.S. resources/Not enough drilling in U.S./Environmental restrictions” were responsible for the spike.​

http://jaredbernsteinblog.com/who’s-responsible/
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
thatbox said:
gaspricepoll1.png

Btw, only 1% of poll respondents—again, correctly in my view—argued that “Not using U.S. resources/Not enough drilling in U.S./Environmental restrictions” were responsible for the spike.​

http://jaredbernsteinblog.com/who’s-responsible/
Click to expand...

That isn't even close to the reason oil has spiked. Is it a problem? Yes. But it has had almost nothing to do with the major spikes in price.
 
I

Invisible_Insane

Member
Jonathan Chait on Snowe's purported moderation:

When George W. Bush proposed a huge, regressive tax cut in 2001, Snowe, sitting at the heart of a decisive block of centrists, used her leverage to support the passage of a modestly smaller and less regressive version. When Barack Obama proposed a large fiscal stimulus in 2009, Snowe (citing fears of deficits that she had helped create) decided to shave a nice round $100 billion off his figure and call it a day. If a Gingrich administration proposed spending a trillion dollars to erect a 100- foot-tall solid-gold Winston Churchill statue on Mars, Snowe would no doubt decide, after careful deliberation, that the wise course was to trim the height down to 90 feet and perhaps use a cheaper bronze alloy in the base.
Click to expand...
 
T

thatbox

Banned
Plinko said:
That isn't even close to the reason oil has spiked. Is it a problem? Yes. But it has had almost nothing to do with the major spikes in price.
Click to expand...

Which is why it's great to see the poll reflect that. The GOP isn't spinning the issue very convincingly.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
thatbox said:
Which is why it's great to see the poll reflect that. The GOP isn't spinning the issue very convincingly.
Click to expand...

Oh, when you put the quote from the website it appeared that you agreed with the 1% who think that. My mistake.
 
S

StopMakingSense

Member
Zzoram said:
I guess the GOP will win there then.

Voter suppression always disproportionately hurt minorities more. That's why the GOP has such a hard on about restrictive voter ID laws. Blacks and Hispanics are far less likely than whites to have the right kinds of ID.
Click to expand...

It can sometimes even out. Lots of seniors don't bother reupping their Driver's License, etc. when they stop driving. Pretty sure my dad doesn't have a valid driver's license where he is.
 
A

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
Per Rassmussen, Santorum's lead in Ohio is down to 2 points over Romney. Looks like the proverbial shit has hit the fan for Santorum...
 
T

ToxicAdam

Member
Ohio:

A new Quinnipiac poll in Ohio shows Rick Santorum with a slim lead over Mitt Romney, 35% to 31%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 17% and Ron Paul at 12%.

Said pollster Peter Brown: "At this point, the Buckeye State is too close to call and is clearly a two-man race between Sen. Rick Santorum and Gov. Mitt Romney. A third of the electorate say they still might change their mind.
Click to expand...

A new Rasmussen survey shows Santorum leading Romney by just two points, 33% to 31%
Click to expand...


Virgina (could have been close)

In a theoretical match up with all the candidates, Romney leads Santorum, 31% to 27%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 13% and Ron Paul at 12%.
Click to expand...
 
S

Something Wicked

Member
TestOfTide said:
Because the consequences that will result from scott voting for the blunt amendment aren't being shown yet.

And remember that Brown was only bale to win because it was an election in which people were least likely to vote against the most uncharismatic nominee imaginable. And he only won by 4 points.
Click to expand...

And what screams "charisma" about Warren? She's going to have a hard time rallying the urban minority vote, which she needs, since most of suburban Mass is fairly red these days.

Associating herself with Occupy Boston wasn't the smartest move in trying to appeal to independents either.
 
Trojita

Trojita

Rapid Response Threadmaker
http://news.yahoo.com/hell-barack-row-over-washington-metro-ad-051919392.html

In the heat of a US presidential election year, with Americans immune to the polarized and bitter nature of political discourse, it takes a lot to shock them, especially in Washington.

But one ad at a DC Metro station -- which starts off criticizing Obama's health care reforms and ends up telling the president to "go to hell" -- goes beyond the pale, says Jim Moran, a Democratic congressman from Virginia.

The advertisement is for "Sick and Sicker: When the Government Becomes Your Doctor," a documentary that interviews Canadian doctors and patients in the hope of showing how dangerous "Obamacare" is for the American people.

"Barack Obama wants politicians and bureaucrats to control America’s entire medical system. Go to hell Barack," the ad says.

Moran wrote a letter to Metro general manager Richard Sarles calling for the removal of the advertisement.

"The ad is deeply disrespectful of the President of the United States and does not belong in the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA) network," he wrote.

It turns out that such language is within the accepted limits of American law and such advertisements are protected under the First Amendment of the US constitution, guaranteeing free speech.

"WMATA advertising has been ruled by the courts as a public forum protected by the First Amendment of the Constitution, and we may not decline ads based on their political content," the Metro authority said in a written statement.

"WMATA does not endorse the advertising on our system, and ads do not reflect the position of the Authority."

Democrats have accused Republicans of lowering the tone of the political discourse in the United States during this election season, in particular with highly personal attacks on the president.

Arizona Governor Jan Brewer, a Republican, was widely condemned recently by Democrats for poking her finger at the president during an angry exchange on the tarmac after she greeted his arrival in Phoenix.

But conservatives argue that the treatment Obama gets is no worse than what liberals dished out to former president George W. Bush, especially in his second term after the US-led invasion of Iraq.
Click to expand...
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
So Obama called Sandra Fluke (the Georgetown Student who Limbaugh called a slut). Story was just elevated, seemingly Rush Limbaugh doubled down on his comments today.

Time for Media to ask GOP Candidates what they think about Rush's comments now...
 
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