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PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread

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For fucks sake, Ron paul actually wins a godamn state but the liberal media keeps it on the down low?

And the ridiculous rules still give romney more delegates?

Look, you might hate ron paul, but youve got to admit, the american electoral system is stuffed to the brim with moscow-style horse shit.
Piling on:
-Virgin Islands are not a state
-Rachel Maddow did mention this story
-It is the party's rules that pick the delegates.
-Ron Paul is the guy most well known for trying to collect most of the delegates despite losing the votes, so it is hard to feel sorry for him. He got beat at his own game.
 

GhaleonEB

Member
Also from Pew:

While overwhelming majorities of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters think that Obama will win against Romney or Santorum, Republicans are far less confident in their parties’ candidates. Just 60% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters say Romney is likely to defeat Obama. In an Obama-Santorum matchup, even fewer GOP voters (46%) predict victory; about as many expect Obama to best Santorum (43%).​

That won't help Romney's turnout any.

And Obama's approval rating:

For the first time since last May, significantly more approve (50%) than disapprove (41%) of his overall job performance.​

But just yesterday PD was saying his ratings were cratering and he was doomed. I am confuse.
 
Also from Pew:

While overwhelming majorities of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters think that Obama will win against Romney or Santorum, Republicans are far less confident in their parties’ candidates. Just 60% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters say Romney is likely to defeat Obama. In an Obama-Santorum matchup, even fewer GOP voters (46%) predict victory; about as many expect Obama to best Santorum (43%).​

That won't help Romney's turnout any.

And Obama's approval rating:

For the first time since last May, significantly more approve (50%) than disapprove (41%) of his overall job performance.​

But just yesterday PD was saying his ratings were cratering and he was doomed. I am confuse.

I'm not sure what's so highlight worthy about a significant majority of Republicans thinking Romney will win? I'm certainly not that confident that Obama will win in November, but that strikes me as a pretty poor proxy for what my behavior is likely to be.
 

GhaleonEB

Member
I'm not sure what's so highlight worthy about a significant majority of Republicans thinking Romney will win? I'm certainly not that confident that Obama will win in November, but that strikes me as a pretty poor proxy for what my behavior is likely to be.

It's a metric that feeds into (and stems from) voter enthusiasm. If a lot of people don't think their person is going to win, that can suppress turnout. It's just another reading that shows the GOP electorate unenthusiastic about Romney.
 
I really hate how when one poll(, clearly an outlier, comes out with Obama being beaten by the GOP candidates or that his approval craters and the media jumps on it as if it's the ONLY poll that exist. CNN and Fox News was so insufferable to watch on Monday because of this.
 
It's a metric that feeds into (and stems from) voter enthusiasm. If a lot of people don't think their person is going to win, that can suppress turnout. It's just another reading that shows the GOP electorate unenthusiastic about Romney.
60% is not a lot of people? In any case, it's a bad question to be asking now; as I said, it's not at all clear that certainty about the candidate you support this far away from the election (when the primary is yet to be concluded) is a useful way to determine whether or not people are going to turn out.
 
I really hate how when one poll(, clearly an outlier, comes out with Obama being beaten by the GOP candidates or that his approval craters and the media jumps on it as if it's the ONLY poll that exist. CNN and Fox News was so insufferable to watch on Monday because of this.

The sooner you realize most media outlets spit on objectivity, truth, fairness, and reason for the sake of sensationalism, ratings, and to push a specific line of narrative, the better off you'll be. It's despicable, but it is what it is. 'Obama doomed in 2012' is more attention-grabbing than the other alternative.
 
I really hate how when one poll(, clearly an outlier, comes out with Obama being beaten by the GOP candidates or that his approval craters and the media jumps on it as if it's the ONLY poll that exist. CNN and Fox News was so insufferable to watch on Monday because of this.
We have two polls showing Obama beating Romney handily, and two that have it as a toss-up race, one where Romney is tied and one where he leads by 2.

I'm not expecting a blowout but it implies to me that Obama's got a good 5-6 points on Romney for now.

Because everybody loves polls, Quinnipac also did Pennsylvania this week, and found Obama up by 6 over Romney and by 1 over Santorum. Guessing it's a home state advantage for Rick, since PPP found something similar (up 7 over Romney, 2 over Santorum). But hey, that's two polls showing Obama leading the presumptive nominee by a fair margin in PA (long heralded the eternal swing state even though it always ends up voting Dem), so I'll take it.

NC numbers due from PPP in an hour as well.

ed: Catch-all post. Jon Baldacci, the last big-name establishment Dem in Maine considering a Senate run, is out. Hey-oh Senator King.
 
The sooner you realize most media outlets spit on objectivity, truth, fairness, and reason for the sake of sensationalism, ratings, and to push a specific line of narrative, the better off you'll be. It's despicable, but it is what it is. 'Obama doomed in 2012' is more attention-grabbing than the other alternative.
Yeah, Cable news are edutainment. The goal is ratings, not news.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
We have two polls showing Obama beating Romney handily, and two that have it as a toss-up race, one where Romney is tied and one where he leads by 2.

I'm not expecting a blowout but it implies to me that Obama's got a good 5-6 points on Romney for now.

Because everybody loves polls, Quinnipac also did Pennsylvania this week, and found Obama up by 6 over Romney and by 1 over Santorum. Guessing it's a home state advantage for Rick, since PPP found something similar (up 7 over Romney, 2 over Santorum). But hey, that's two polls showing Obama leading the presumptive nominee by a fair margin in PA (long heralded the eternal swing state even though it always ends up voting Dem), so I'll take it.

NC numbers due from PPP in an hour as well.

ed: Catch-all post. Jon Baldacci, the last big-name establishment Dem in Maine considering a Senate run, is out. Hey-oh Senator King.

I'm stunned Santorum polled that well in Pennsylvania after how he was crushed in his bid for re-election.
 

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
I'm stunned Santorum polled that well in Pennsylvania after how he was crushed in his bid for re-election.

Why? It wasn't republicans that voted him out of office. Of course he will poll well amongst republicans and homestaters on a national election poll.
 

GhaleonEB

Member
60% is not a lot of people? In any case, it's a bad question to be asking now; as I said, it's not at all clear that certainty about the candidate you support this far away from the election (when the primary is yet to be concluded) is a useful way to determine whether or not people are going to turn out.

Agree, it's a lot time till November. They're just establishing a baseline from which we'll move going forward, but they are in no way predictors of the election.

Still, signs of Obama's approval improving along with the economy and continued challenges Romney is facing (and will face when he tries to pivot to the general) are worth noting at this point.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Why? It wasn't republicans that voted him out of office. Of course he will poll well amongst republicans and homestaters on a national election poll.

No, but it was the same group of people that were polled.
 

Brinbe

Member
Those are def good results for Bama, was getting a bit worried after those previous polls. Not worried at all about PA, that's not a swing state anymore, even with Santorum. Real interested in those NC numbers though.

Oh, they came out. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/03/obama-up-in-nc-primary-hinges-on-newt.html

Whoever the Republican nominee is Barack Obama has an advantage over him right now. Obama leads Romney by 3 points, 49-46. That's up from a 1 point lead a month ago. And Obama's ahead of Santorum by 5 points, 49-44. That's up from a 2 point lead in February. Obama's up 48-41 on Ron Paul and 51-42 on Newt Gingrich.

Obama's breaking even on his approval numbers in the state with 49% giving him good marks and 49% poor ones. This is the first time since last June Obama hasn't been under water in North Carolina. Obama hit a low water mark in September 43/53. He's seen modest improvement with Democrats and Republicans since then, but the really big shift is with independents. He's gone from 31/62 with them to 46/51- they're still not fond of him but he's coming a lot closer to breaking even now than he did six months ago.
Part of Obama's good numbers in North Carolina are a function of his own improved popularity, but he's also benefiting from the poor image of his opponents. As we're finding in most swing states Mitt Romney is very unpopular with only 31% of voters seeing him favorably to 56% with a negative opinion. Rick Santorum doesn't do much better- his favorability spread is 36/52.

This poll just confirms what we see every month in North Carolina- Barack Obama is holding his ground and although the GOP may gain some ground once it finally unifies around a nominee, this is most definitely a swing state.

And lmao @ Newt spoiling things for Santorum even though he's still in this just to spite Romney+Sell books.
North Carolina provides a great example of the spoiler role Newt Gingrich is now playing in the Republican Presidential race. With Gingrich in the field a split conservative vote allows Mitt Romney to lead in the state with 31% to 27% for Rick Santorum, 24% for Gingrich, and 8% for Ron Paul. But if Gingrich was out of the picture most of his support would go to Santorum, giving last night's big winner 42% to 38% for Romney and 10% for Paul.
 
I'm stunned Santorum polled that well in Pennsylvania after how he was crushed in his bid for re-election.
It tends to happen. Norm Coleman usually polls better than the average Republican here in MN.

Granted, Coleman only lost by what, 300 votes.

RustyNails said:
Dont. PD is saying wacky shit because he's been attending Newt's victory rallies lately.
Man, you guys are gonna look sooo stupid when Gingrich routs Obama in the first of seven Lincoln-Douglas debates.
 

Tim-E

Member
Those are def good results for Bama, was getting a bit worried after those previous polls. Not worried at all about PA, that's not a swing state anymore, even with Santorum. Real interested in those NC numbers though.

With him doing pretty well in polls there already and the convention being there to get the base excited, I am feeling good about NC right now.
 

markatisu

Member
Agree, it's a lot time till November. They're just establishing a baseline from which we'll move going forward, but they are in no way predictors of the election.

Still, signs of Obama's approval improving along with the economy and continued challenges Romney is facing (and will face when he tries to pivot to the general) are worth noting at this point.

I don't think we will ever know truly what Romney v Obama would have been like if the GOP were not ass backwards.

They will have done so much harm to him by the time he wins the nomination officially (maybe in a month or so?)

I mean you said it yourself, he has this magical pivot he is going to have to make and another month of Santorum is going to make him border the fringe to the point where even the casual observer is going to say WTF when he tries to come to center in the fall

I can't wait to see what he is wanting to end next week , this week it was Planned Parenthood....a fight which always works out well for the GOP (not)
 

Allard

Member
I don't think we will ever know truly what Romney v Obama would have been like if the GOP were not ass backwards.

They will have done so much harm to him by the time he wins the nomination officially (maybe in a month or so?)

I mean you said it yourself, he has this magical pivot he is going to have to make and another month of Santorum is going to make him border the fringe to the point where even the casual observer is going to say WTF when he tries to come to center in the fall

I can't wait to see what he is wanting to end next week , this week it was Planned Parenthood....a fight which always works out well for the GOP (not)

I really don't know what is wrong with Romney or his staff. All he needed to do was ride the wave electability into the convention and not flip flop constantly. The people that don't see him as conservative enough will NEVER see him as conservative enough. You don't try to become your opponent, you try to distance yourself from them in the hopes of being a true choice, one or the other. By coming off as unprincipled, he lost a core group of voters who flat out won't ever trust him because he didn't make clear stands on positions. The "Not Romney" candidate started out as trying to find a 'true' conservative, and Romney's constant ass kissing of all the bases only keeps allowing himself to be assigned that label, he is a fake conservative because he constantly flips around like a paper in the wind. His only strength that allowed him to even be the front runner was electability, but by appeasing the base he is quickly losing that argument and it allows someone like Santorum, a "Genuine" Conservative, someone that hasn't changed principles and has even double downed on them when placed under scrutiny, a chance to claim the spot light.

The damage is done, I don't see a proper course for Romney at this point to recover from these mistakes and honestly its sad. I was hoping for at least 'some' intelligent discourse if he got to the General Election but now I know he has no ideas of his own and he will say anything for a sound bite. If and when he wins the nomination I do not look forward to the mud slinging we are going to see from their campaign just to hold a sound bite. I fear him getting elected just as much as I fear Santorum getting elected at this point.
 

Tim-E

Member
I was hoping for at least 'some' intelligent discourse if he got to the General Election but now I know he has no ideas of his own and he will say anything for a sound bite.

This primary has proven that when Romney is in the news for a sound bite, he generally isn't the one benefiting from it.
 
This primary has proven that when Romney is in the news for a sound bite, he generally isn't the one benefiting from it.

The really funny thing is the Romney IS NOT LEARNING.

He got laughed at for the 'trees are the right height' . . . and then used the line again a few days later.

He got mocked as the out-of-touch rich guy for talking about having 'friends that are NASCAR team owners' . . . and then he talked about 'friends that are NFL team owners' a few days later.

Rombot software needs to learn to adapt.
 

Tim-E

Member
The really funny thing is the Romney IS NOT LEARNING.

He got laughed at for the 'trees are the right height' . . . and then used the line again a few days later.

He got mocked as the out-of-touch rich guy for talking about having 'friends that are NASCAR team owners' . . . and then he talked about 'friends that are NFL team owners' a few days later.

Rombot software needs to learn to adapt.

For a guy that's been running for office since 1994, Romney is hilariously bad at it.
 
The really funny thing is the Romney IS NOT LEARNING.

He got laughed at for the 'trees are the right height' . . . and then used the line again a few days later.

He got mocked as the out-of-touch rich guy for talking about having 'friends that are NASCAR team owners' . . . and then he talked about 'friends that are NFL team owners' a few days later.

Rombot software needs to learn to adapt.

WATSON 2012
 

GhaleonEB

Member
For a guy that's been running for office since 1994, Romney is hilariously bad at it.

He doesn't seem to be able to help it. Most politicians are pretty disingenuous, but Romney is terrible at faking it. If he'd embrace his wealth and connections it would come across as at least more honest than the way he's been floundering.


A few Congressional developments: the Senate passed their version of the 2-year highway bill 74-22. I have no idea what's in it or how good it is yet, but Reid is now pressuring Boehner to drop the Tea Party version and pass theirs. I think he's got the upper hand given the margin it passed by. There are enough GOPers to band together with Dems to pass that one in the House over the version Boehner has been struggling with.

McConnell and Reid have struck a (still unspecified) deal to move that tiny House jobs bill for small businesses before the block of stalled judicial nominations; apparently McConnell will not block them so long as that bill goes first.

Reid is finally playing hardball, and it's paying off.
 

thatbox

Banned
He doesn't seem to be able to help it. Most politicians are pretty disingenuous, but Romney is terrible at faking it. If he'd embrace his wealth and connections it would come across as at least more honest than the way he's been floundering.


A few Congressional developments: the Senate passed their version of the 2-year highway bill 74-22. I have no idea what's in it or how good it is yet, but Reid is now pressuring Boehner to drop the Tea Party version and pass theirs. I think he's got the upper hand given the margin it passed by. There are enough GOPers to band together with Dems to pass that one in the House over the version Boehner has been struggling with.

McConnell and Reid have struck a (still unspecified) deal to move that tiny House jobs bill for small businesses before the block of stalled judicial nominations; apparently McConnell will not block them so long as that bill goes first.

Reid is finally playing hardball, and it's paying off.

I'll believe it when I see it.
 
Rombot software needs to learn to adapt.

Cut him some slack he's learning to lack grits and say "yall".

Seriously all Obama has to do is run soundbites where Romney completely contradicts himself as well as running soundbites where he says the completely out of touch quotes like $10,000 bet, Friends with nascar owners, etc.
 
I'm eagerly looking forward to Obama's ads against Romney. Shit's going to be hysterical, all he has to do is SHOW UNEDITED CLIPS OF ROMNEY.

Also, the debates. Obama is going to wipe the floor.
 

markatisu

Member
Also, the debates. Obama is going to wipe the floor.

Yeah there is no real skill involved in beating Romney, if Newt did not have such a gigantic ego and had prepared he would have demolished Mitt in those last few debates

Key to beating Rombot is to push him on what he believes (make him pick a side then and there) and bring up ad naseum his flip flops and pandering.

That is like the BSOD for Rombots programming, he did not start flailing in this primary until Newt and Rick figured that much out. He coasted on just keeping his mouth shut and letting crazy eliminate crazy
 

Jackson50

Member
Forget my two front teeth, Santa. Can I receive this as an early Christmas gift?

U.S. Officials Debate Speeding Afghan Pullout
At least three options are now under consideration, according to officials at the White House, the Pentagon and the State Department. One plan, backed by Thomas E. Donilon, the national security adviser, would be to announce that at least 10,000 more troops would come home by the end of December, and then 10,000 to 20,000 more by June 2013.

Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. has been pushing for a bigger withdrawal that would reduce the bulk of the troops around the same time the mission shifts to a support role, leaving behind Special Operations teams to conduct targeted raids. Mr. Biden has long said that the United States mission in Afghanistan is too broad and should focus primarily on a narrow counterterrorism mission against insurgents seeking to attack the United States.

Mr. Obama’s military commanders, meanwhile, want to maintain troops in Afghanistan as long as possible. If cuts have to be made, the commanders favor making them at the end of 2013, after the fighting season is largely finished. Any troop cuts made midyear would mean that those forces would not be available during the main fighting season, which runs from spring to early fall.
Forgive me for not holding my breath. It'd be prudent to hasten the withdrawal. Although, I suspect Biden's proposal, which is the best option of the three, is unlikely to be chosen. Donilon's proposal is a terribly flawed alternative, but it's likely the only alternative with a realistic chance of being adopted.

It's not an uncommon occurrence. In 2008, there was a large bloc of voters that voted for Huckabee all the way until the end. In 1992, there was a large bloc that voted for Buchanan all the way to the end. Both of those years, perceived RINO's (McCain and Bush Sr.) were the frontrunners.

Should be noted that both frontrunners lost pretty convincingly.
Bush Sr. was not the darling of conservatives in 1988 either, yet he won the general election handily. I'd imagine the perception of a candidate's heterodoxy is a poor gauge of how they fare in the general election.
 

mj1108

Member
Do these fucking dolts think women don't vote? They're going to get slaughtered of they keep this rhetoric up. Well, theyve been on that path for a while, but alienating female voter will seal the deal.

This current crop of candidates aren't far off from actually suggesting at getting rid of a woman's right to vote.
 

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Also from Pew:

While overwhelming majorities of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters think that Obama will win against Romney or Santorum, Republicans are far less confident in their parties’ candidates. Just 60% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters say Romney is likely to defeat Obama. In an Obama-Santorum matchup, even fewer GOP voters (46%) predict victory; about as many expect Obama to best Santorum (43%).​

That won't help Romney's turnout any.

And Obama's approval rating:

For the first time since last May, significantly more approve (50%) than disapprove (41%) of his overall job performance.​

But just yesterday PD was saying his ratings were cratering and he was doomed. I am confuse.

What was the percentage of Dems that think Obama will win?
 

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Forget my two front teeth, Santa. Can I receive this as an early Christmas gift?

U.S. Officials Debate Speeding Afghan PulloutForgive me for not holding my breath. It'd be prudent to hasten the withdrawal. Although, I suspect Biden's proposal, which is the best option of the three, is unlikely to be chosen. Donilon's proposal is a terribly flawed alternative, but it's likely the only alternative with a realistic chance of being adopted.

Bush Sr. was not the darling of conservatives in 1988 either, yet he won the general election handily. I'd imagine the perception of a candidate's heterodoxy is a poor gauge of how they fare in the general election.

These are the times when I like Joe Biden the most.
 
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