speculawyer
Member
He stole the idea from me. ;-)
speculawyer said:
http://72.52.200.115/forum/showpost.php?p=35635737&postcount=6014
*ZING*! Damn, he (or perhaps Biden instead) should memorize that line and have it ready.
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PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread
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He stole the idea from me. ;-)
http://72.52.200.115/forum/showpost.php?p=35635737&postcount=6014
*ZING*! Damn, he (or perhaps Biden instead) should memorize that line and have it ready.
I just want to see him get ethered on health care.
"The only difference between your healthcare plan, Governor, and the affordable care act is that yours covers elective abortions."
*social conservatives stay home in droves*
PhoenixDark
Banned
Depends on what the SC does. If it's ruled unconstitutional, all Romney has to say is "my bill was constitutional, yours wasn't" and that's that. If not, Romney will look like an utter fool.
Aaron Strife
Banned
To put those battleground polls in perspective:
Rasmussen's swing state poll was of FL, NC, VA, and OH. Collectively, Obama won those states 51-48 in 2008. He leads Romney by 3, 47-44.
The twelve states that Gallup polled, Obama won 54-45 in 08. He leads Romney now by 9, 51-42.
Same margins but with more undecideds. Whatever, he's in great shape.
Rasmussen's swing state poll was of FL, NC, VA, and OH. Collectively, Obama won those states 51-48 in 2008. He leads Romney by 3, 47-44.
The twelve states that Gallup polled, Obama won 54-45 in 08. He leads Romney now by 9, 51-42.
Same margins but with more undecideds. Whatever, he's in great shape.
Particle Physicist
between a quark and a baryon
DeathbyVolcano
Banned
Here's how I have the election going, based on what I think the year will hold for us going into November:
I was very hesistant on going blue for both Ohio and Florida, but looking at past elections...Ohio usually goes with the front runner, and Florida has been truly as blue as a swing state can be during elections, save 2004 with the truly awful Kerry.
I could see Ohio going red, but I don't think it'll happen.
I was very hesistant on going blue for both Ohio and Florida, but looking at past elections...Ohio usually goes with the front runner, and Florida has been truly as blue as a swing state can be during elections, save 2004 with the truly awful Kerry.
I could see Ohio going red, but I don't think it'll happen.
Black Republican
Member
in 08 what was the closest southern state obama had a chance of winning?
Does winning nc and Virginia count?
DeathbyVolcano
Banned
Yeah, you're probably right. I just sorta thought the area would have some of the Arizona racists and Mormon apologists be quite vocal for Romney.
eBay Huckster
Member
Don't think there's enough of either demographic in AZ or NM to really make that much of an impact.
e: In any case, I'm calling this barring some kind of major outside event (and not the PPACA being ruled unconstitutional) working in Romney's favour.
DeathbyVolcano
Banned
I don't think it'll be THAT big of an upset. That's even more than 2008. I think Obama will barely get over 300 electoral votes. Also, you have NH going Obama, but I'd say it's 80 percent likely it goes to Romney.
eBay Huckster
Member
That's 2008 minus IN and NE-2, entirely reasonable given that Romney's the weakest major-party candidate since Dukakis.
DeathbyVolcano
Banned
He's about as weak as Kerry was, I think.
But moving on to other things, who thinks Cory Booker could become New Jersey's Governor in 2013? The man is one of the most savvy politicians I've ever encountered. His record as mayor is amazing, and I'd love to see him climb the ladder and reach a state executive position. I think he might make an incredible presidential candidate in 2016 or 2020.
Just google some of his speeches, his record as mayor of Newark...he's amazing.
But moving on to other things, who thinks Cory Booker could become New Jersey's Governor in 2013? The man is one of the most savvy politicians I've ever encountered. His record as mayor is amazing, and I'd love to see him climb the ladder and reach a state executive position. I think he might make an incredible presidential candidate in 2016 or 2020.
Just google some of his speeches, his record as mayor of Newark...he's amazing.
This election reminds me of 2004. Dems and Liberals hated Bush with a passion...but just couldn't get behind Kerry passionately as he had the reputation of a flip-flopping elitist who was completely out of touch with the middle class.
2012 is the same story reversed for the Republican side.
2004 was the beginning of the "recovery" of the post 9/11 recession that helped Bush gather momentum during the election. And as 9/11 was fresh in our minds....a majority of the electorate supported Bush's foreign policy although many people felt the office of the Presidency was a bit above his competency and in the end voted for the incumbent that was doing a manageable job over the boring, inconsistent Kerry.
You need a very very strong candidate to beat an incumbent, and Romney's not that.
People, by and large support Obama's foreign policy: Killed OBL, took out Khadafi with no US Casualties, ended War in Iraq, improved our international image. And domestically - the majority support his ideas on taxation and if the economy improves will support him too....polling suggests that the electorate has held steady from 2009-now that he's not responsible for this economic recession.
Really Obama's only issues are if the ACA is ruled unconstitutional, the economy plunges, or a scandal happens. He probably needs at least 2 of the 3 to happen to lose the election
2012 is the same story reversed for the Republican side.
2004 was the beginning of the "recovery" of the post 9/11 recession that helped Bush gather momentum during the election. And as 9/11 was fresh in our minds....a majority of the electorate supported Bush's foreign policy although many people felt the office of the Presidency was a bit above his competency and in the end voted for the incumbent that was doing a manageable job over the boring, inconsistent Kerry.
You need a very very strong candidate to beat an incumbent, and Romney's not that.
People, by and large support Obama's foreign policy: Killed OBL, took out Khadafi with no US Casualties, ended War in Iraq, improved our international image. And domestically - the majority support his ideas on taxation and if the economy improves will support him too....polling suggests that the electorate has held steady from 2009-now that he's not responsible for this economic recession.
Really Obama's only issues are if the ACA is ruled unconstitutional, the economy plunges, or a scandal happens. He probably needs at least 2 of the 3 to happen to lose the election
I'm starting to think he's even worst than Dukakis. He's more of the Mondale/McGovern/Goldwater level, with virtually no appeal anywhere, except for a handful of Mormons. Once it becomes clear he doesn't stand a chance, I'll bet the Republican base will abandon him in droves. Wouldn't shock me if he won only a handful of states.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
It amazes me he's doing so well this early in the contest.
He is smart enough to not run against Chris Christie. He'll wait tiill after Christie's second term is up.
Here's how I have the election going, based on what I think the year will hold for us going into November:
I can see that map happening, but you need to give him the part of Nebraska he won in 2008. He won't lose that as there is too large a population of black/hispanic/college that controls the entire city of Omaha (was just there on Saturday) and major parts like South O which are virtually all hispanic or black
Vahagn said:
Yeah, and I doubt a scandal would happen. At least Nixon (drinking, paranoia as seen on his released wh tapes) and Clinton (Jennifer Flowers, accusations of womanizing) there were always signs and past indiscretions that indicated a scandal was possible. So the ACA would need to be thrown out and I think the economy would need to tank coupled with Romney picking a good running mate and just generally shutting up lol
The Librarian
Banned
Obama needs to only win Ohio and it's game over for Romney.Here's how I have the election going, based on what I think the year will hold for us going into November:
I was very hesistant on going blue for both Ohio and Florida, but looking at past elections...Ohio usually goes with the front runner, and Florida has been truly as blue as a swing state can be during elections, save 2004 with the truly awful Kerry.
I could see Ohio going red, but I don't think it'll happen.
Don't think he's losing NC or VA either. Bams already has a pretty wide lead in the latter, and, of course, the convention's in NC in September, so he's on lock to get both again.
I think Florida will be closer than Ohio, but if he can drive turnout, he should be able to win it again too.
I think Florida will be closer than Ohio, but if he can drive turnout, he should be able to win it again too.
Invisible_Insane
Member
How on earth does the convention being held in North Carolina guarantee that the state goes to Obama?
It doesn't guarantee anything! But there's clearly a reason why they made a choice to hold it in Charlotte and it'll surely help his chances in terms of support/infrastructure/and ground game in the months before November.
maximum360
Member
I would enjoy nothing more than to see Christie run and get totally annihilated. He's a pompous bully. I never could get the media's fascination with him. Even Joe Scarbs has become a Christie groupie.
The Librarian
Banned
Ohio, Ohio, Ohio, Ohio, Ohio.
It's the only state I'll be watching this election season.
We're not getting FL, guys.
Rick Scott.
Edit: ISM shows manufacturing picking up steam in March, along with hiring. Along with the weekly UI claims, it's a good signal for Friday's employment situation report.
Obama just has to win Ohio and it's all over. The best the Republicans can do now is actually just go full-on mudslinging mode just for the sheer attention approach.
I say let Santorum's racist, religious bigotry SHOULD be unleashed.
Let the insanity reign and the propaganda spread, it'll be a glorious disaster.
I say let Santorum's racist, religious bigotry SHOULD be unleashed.
Let the insanity reign and the propaganda spread, it'll be a glorious disaster.
The Librarian
Banned
Actually, Obama would only need Colorado, in addition to Ohio, to win. That brings it to 270-268.
I'm kind of surprised that people are so quick to hand VA and NC over to Romney. If McCain couldn't win them in 08, there's no way Romney is winning them in '12.
The South is pretty lukewarm to Romney overall. I'm sure in the end, the Southern White vote will fall in line, but it is going to be a hard sell for the GOP given Romney's religious background, and his wishy-washy history.
The South is pretty lukewarm to Romney overall. I'm sure in the end, the Southern White vote will fall in line, but it is going to be a hard sell for the GOP given Romney's religious background, and his wishy-washy history.
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
I am surprised that anyone could have the electoral college vote so close as Dax does. Obama is probably going to win by 15-20 at least.
eBay Huckster
Member
Now to counterweigh Dax, here's an approximation of the absolute best Obama can do barring a McGovern-style collapse by Romney.
(Maybe SC and TX on top of those states if we go into Landslide Mode, but nothing more.)
(Maybe SC and TX on top of those states if we go into Landslide Mode, but nothing more.)
Invisible_Insane
Member
The thinking is that antipathy to president Obama is going to drive Republicans to the polls despite Romney's weakness as a candidate. I'm not sure what sort of literature there is about primary turnout as a proxy for GE tournout--so far primary turnout has been somewhat depressed, but I'm not sure about what that says about what we should expect come November.
Yeah that is a little ridiculous, I live in Iowa and I can tell you he (Romney) is not getting Iowa. People here actually liked McCain and Bush, they hate Romney (evident by the fact we gave Santorum the win). We went with Obama in 2008 and the GOP in 2010 and everyone regrets that midterm decision as the GOP has went full on religious.
Obama might win NC, he held the convention in CO in order to mobilize voters there. I can easily see him do the same as the convention brings in money and money drives the economy.
So heading into Nov things might appear in parts of NC to be more up then usual which means people might give him more of a chance.
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
If the GE were in 2010, I think Romney would have taken it with Tea Party and GOP fever riding high, as well as if Santorum and Gingrich hadn't brought out the absolute worst in Romney.
The GOP should be kicking themselves for allowing Gingrich and Santorum to get anywhere. Had they been smart, they would have made up some shenanigans to keep them off the ballot in more states. Now Romney looks like a bigoted, racist, out of touch white man with half a billion dollars, whereas before people had a pretty favorable view of him as an executive and leader.
The GOP should be kicking themselves for allowing Gingrich and Santorum to get anywhere. Had they been smart, they would have made up some shenanigans to keep them off the ballot in more states. Now Romney looks like a bigoted, racist, out of touch white man with half a billion dollars, whereas before people had a pretty favorable view of him as an executive and leader.
Souldriver
Member
I would love to see such a landslide win
for the good guy
Racist? How come?
I'd only want that for the House and Senate races. I don't think Obama personally deserves that kind of victory. Not going to happen either way though unless Romney's caught banging an 18 year old male intern.
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
He wants to build a fence, won't give citizenship to illegals, etc.
I don't you, you tell me.
Christie's approval ratings have been on the rise, he can't risk it. Booker knows his career would be over if he loses. And I get the impression Booker is someone who has his eyes on the white house some day. He'll wait 4 more years when the race will be open.
I didn't say he looks like a racist. Though I did forget about his self-deportation of illegals thing. I'm not sure if that makes him more a racist or just an inhumane monster though.
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
Forced deportation would qualify as either. Self-deportation is just a funny joke.
No. Self-deportation is a real thing and he wasn't joking.
Invisible_Insane
Member
http://www.thisamericanlife.org/radio-archives/episode/456/reap-what-you-sow
Give this a listen if you have some time, AB.
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
I know he wasn't joking. Doesnt make it any less of a joke.
I'd say Dax's map is (far) more likely than any of these Obama-landslide maps. I'd be really shocked if Obama wins FL again.
The Repub legislator here has cut the early-voting days down.
Are there any numbers on the turnout for the Repub primary vs 2008's primary? That'd be some useful info.
I was shocked he won my state in '08
Are there any numbers on the turnout for the Repub primary vs 2008's primary? That'd be some useful info.
The Librarian
Banned
I'm just emphasizing Ohio's importance not as a means to victory, but more as to make Romney's impossible.
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
I dont think one election cycle could show a correlation. You need at least a couple decades worth to show any number of significant trends.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Obama is up big in the swing states at the beginning of April. APRIL.
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