Rocket Scientist
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PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread
- Thread starter AlteredBeast
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PhoenixDark
Banned
On one hand Romney's Mormon base is strong there, but on the other hand the 2010 Reid/Angle race showed the dem machine is still very powerful there. I'd imagine they'll be out in full force in November and Obama will win. I wonder if their governor could be Romney's VP though...
New Mexico and Colorado are probably firewall states for Obama. I'm not sold on him winning Arizona, polling seems to favor Romney there right now but we'll see.
Lucky Forward
Member
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
That + the Romney Quantum Theory are two of the best things to come out in this primary cycle.
Eh, I don't put put much faith in polls until after Romney wins the nom. I imagine Romney & his SuperPAC will be carpetbombing swing states to drive Obama's favorability down.
makingmusic476
Member
I'm trying to figure out why you have Obama winning South Dakota. His numbers there were about the same as they were in North Dakota or South Carolina in '08.
If Romney collapses Mondale/McGovern style, I'd expect it to look like this: http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=iuV
Right, but look at what doing that during the primary did to Romeny's favorability. He's deep in a hole, and you don't climb out with that kind of campaign. Plus, it was only effective because he was drowning out his opponents; that won't be the case against Obama. Rebuilding his favorables and outreach to women and Hispanics, while also carpetbombing Obama isn't happening.
eBay Huckster
Member
That's a "Romney as Dukakis" map, my actual prediction's further up on that page
StopMakingSense
Member
He Whitman'd himself. /Californian
Rocket Scientist
Member
I think you're all greatly underestimating the power of fear. The SuperPAC's are going to be all about fear and it will help Mitt even though people might not like him.
reggieandTFE
Member
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=ivC
I think this map is a possibility if employment numbers stagnant over the summer and the super PACs really hit Obama. Playing around with that site is fun and really shows how important Ohio is to Obama's chances. VA & FL are important as well, but he can't take it without Ohio.
I think this map is a possibility if employment numbers stagnant over the summer and the super PACs really hit Obama. Playing around with that site is fun and really shows how important Ohio is to Obama's chances. VA & FL are important as well, but he can't take it without Ohio.
The Librarian
Banned
Ohio isn't that important to Obama's chances. As I said before, Ohio is more important to Obama as a means to deny Romney victory than it is as means to victory. Obama doesn't need Ohio to win Romney does. I don't see how not winning Ohio would make Obama's chances in Virginia and Florida impossible.
We saw that power in the last election, in the midst of an economic crisis. It didn't work.
I'm not saying the Super PACs won't have an impact - they will - but there are many factor that are going to push back. Demographics, Romney the horrible candidate, Obama's incumbent advantage, Romney's challenging electoral map, a steadily (so far) recovering economy.
RustyNails
Member
I don't know why people don't consider self-deportation as another one of Romney's out of touch Romneyisms. Really. He expects illegal immigrants to buy an international airline ticket and deport themselves and their entire families if they are illegals too. Pretty sure couple of $1000s is the change that falls out of Romney's pockets when he's frisking his pockets, but that is a great huge sum of money for poor people. Yeah. And how do they buy the tickets? Use Credit Cards? This guy is so out of touch. Not only him, but the entire GOP establishment (Newt endorsed this idea too) and the media establishment in general. No one has any damn idea of value of money to people living in America.
PhoenixDark
Banned
A logical Romney win under the best circumstances for him: http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=ivD
If the economy stagnates there's no telling what could happen.
If the economy stagnates there's no telling what could happen.
Flying_Phoenix
Banned
Because I would wager that a notable majority of Ameicans think the same way.
Rocket Scientist
Member
If I were a betting man I would bet on Obama no doubt. I just meant to say that people thinking it's going to be a blowout are underestimating the SuperPAC's and Romney's apparent willingness to go farther than McCain. At the end of the day I do expect Obama to win though, barring any extreme economic surprises or some such things.
Blergmeister
Member
I expected better from you. This is what the 2012 map will look like according to what I get from your posts!
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=ivF
No way Romney wins Michigan after that Let Detroit Go Bankrupt article!
You do realize what that will do with Romney who already has an unfavorable view
And also in your view is Obama just supposed to take it, he has one of the most developed infrastructures for an election in place.
Obama is not Santorum or Gingrinch
DeathbyVolcano
Banned
Yeah, I don't think people understand that Obama is miles better at campaigning than ANY of the primary candidates...or any of them from 2008 as well. He also is sitting on a metric fuckton of donations from supporters and his own superPACS. Obama is going to slaughter Romney with his own ads. I'd wager he'll even have more money to spend than Romney will.
Holy moly, the new electoral vote map sucks! He needs to get Kerry 2004 + another state with a minimum of 7 EV's to win, bare minimum. I don't even know if he'll win OH or FL again. Shiiiiit, this is harder than I thought. I forgot about the EV shift.
If he gets everything you posted plus only Nevada, that will make it a TIE. That could happen!
I hope you realize that Obama also has superPACs, and much better funded than any of Romney's current opponents. Not to mention that Obama's own campaign is much better funded as well.
I can't see how this won't become a sizable blowout of some sort. My guess this will be somewhere between a McCain or Dole in terms of defeat, with an outside shot of a massive landslide like Mondale or McGovern.
I think I am amazed by the amount of people who think Obama has no SuperPAC's or a campaign strategy
This is the man who after suffering his first defeat in IL systematically removed his opponents in his 2nd attempt. Then took out Hilary Clinton in 2008 and John McCain, both vastly more experienced in the upper echelons of politics then Romney.
Add into that how exactly do you go negative on Obama when the GOP has been going negative on him since 2008?? What are you going to run in a SuperPAC ad that has not already been said ad naseum
This is the man who after suffering his first defeat in IL systematically removed his opponents in his 2nd attempt. Then took out Hilary Clinton in 2008 and John McCain, both vastly more experienced in the upper echelons of politics then Romney.
Add into that how exactly do you go negative on Obama when the GOP has been going negative on him since 2008?? What are you going to run in a SuperPAC ad that has not already been said ad naseum
Yep... say what you want about his performance as Pres, what can't be disputed is that he's a fantastic campaigner. Just unbelievable when he's in that mode, and I think people will be reminded of that come the Summer/Fall when he gets geared up. And that's not even considering his considerable ground-game/infrastructure, which was unprecedented in how effective it was for him throughout the Dem and General elections. If it's anything like it was in 08, he'll be in good shape.
I mean Romney's had trouble with Newt and Santorum who had absolutely nothing in place in many of these states, he's gonna be in for it against an actually competent, experienced operation.
Pretty incredible anti-Romney add from Santorum. Gotta love Rick for going out of his was to make sure that Republicans in all 50 states know that they should not consider ever voting for Mitt Romney.
Pointless but fun thought experiment - where would the Republicans be right now if it wasn't for Citizens United? It's been the power source for the Romney Death Ray, and he probably wouldn't have been able to take Ohio, Michigan etc without it. In addition, it's the only (or close to the only) reason he doesn't need to be horribly, horribly afraid of being completely broke come the general. At the same time though, it has allowed Gingrinch to stay in the race as long as he has, etc.
Pointless but fun thought experiment - where would the Republicans be right now if it wasn't for Citizens United? It's been the power source for the Romney Death Ray, and he probably wouldn't have been able to take Ohio, Michigan etc without it. In addition, it's the only (or close to the only) reason he doesn't need to be horribly, horribly afraid of being completely broke come the general. At the same time though, it has allowed Gingrinch to stay in the race as long as he has, etc.
The EU is likely to escalate its anti-piracy operations in the forthcoming weeks to permit the on-shore pursuit of pirates. The changes are opaque, yet the few details to emerge include permission to pursue only in helicopters to destroy equipment. Additionally, they may not shoot at people and are prohibited from employing explosive weapons. I think this may portend future American policy. We're already involved in robust anti-piracy maritime operations. And we have already prosecuted attacks in Somalia under OEF. I don't think its a significant leap especially given our extensive cooperation with the EU. I would be ambivalent if the U.S. were to consider a similar policy as it only addresses the symptoms of piracy, the rules of engagement are too ambiguous, and it solicits mission creep. I'll note there are no rumors I'm aware of suggesting the U.S. is considering a similar policy. It's mere conjecture.
Invisible_Insane
Member
I don't think people understand that the presidency doesn't matter as much as control of Congress does, and SuperPACs are going to do their real damage downticket. If Obama wins but the Democrats lose the Senate, expect at least two years of compromise that leads to massive damage to the safety net.
Rocket Scientist
Member
I'm aware of Obama's ground game, but I was under the impression that his SuperPAC's and big donors were trailing behind the conservatives'.
They were but at the same time Romney's SuperPAC's have already had to spend their money to defeat Santorum and Gingrinch
Romney SuperPAC wasting money for 3-4 months vs Obama spending $0 of his
Who is going to be in a better position come June?
Obama could do it against Hilary in 2008 because he was basically printing money with his supporters, Romney does not have that kind of following
The fact Romney had to spend as much as he has against 2 imbeciles should be very troubling for his campaign
Invisible_Insane
Member
SuperPAC money isn't going to be very hard to come by, particularly not for Mitt Romney. I'm reasonably confident that the GOP and its affiliates will quite easily outspend Democrats this time around.
I reason it's harmed Romney. Although he has benefited, the infusion of cash also sustained moribund candidates who would have been forced to withdraw in previous cycles. Mind you, it's not the only reason he's encountered problems. Interacted with the protracted primary season and the ambivalence of severe conservatives, it amplified an unfriendly environment.
Invisible_Insane
Member
I think the most amazing thing is that they couldn't light that properly, and you can clearly see her shadow on the green screen in the background.
Black Mamba
Member
removing shadows is too much science for Santorum.
Yeah but spend it on what? People who don't like Obama don't need to be reached and those that do are not really going to be convinced when Romney is the alternative
Its part of the reason people are going to look back and realize the GOP killed itself in this election when they constantly went after Obama 2008-2012
They essentially blew their political load to keep any of his bills from passing by and large, so anything they say now is going to ring hallow
Not saying they won't blast the airwaves, I am just arguing it won't make a difference as we have heard it on repeat for years
ErasureAcer
Banned
That would be amazing. WOW!!!!
reggieandTFE
Member
Obama can win VA and still lose. He can win Ohio and lose VA and FL and still win. Also, OH is in a region of the country where democrats still generally do well and have some history. VA has voted for a democrat once in the last 5 decades.
Invisible_Insane
Member
The presidential election is not the only election. The SuperPAC money will be spent trying to sever Obama's coattails; even if he hangs onto the presidency, he will be significantly weakened if the Senate flips.
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
Romney's only hope for not imploding in a fiery fashion. Rubio is probably just as bad as Palin, with less exposure, though. We shall see...
Invisible_Insane
Member
Where are you in the country?
And who's paying for those ads?
Rubio smacks a little of Game Change, no? And it's definitely not going to drive up Romney's positives with women.
He doesn't come off as as blatantly ignorant in interviews, which is dangerous
South Florida (Broward)
"Paid for by Romney for President"
Invisible_Insane
Member
Crazy. Can you find a clip? Are they touting Rubio's endorsement, or is it something more?He doesn't come off as as blatantly ignorant in interviews, which is dangerous
South Florida (Broward)
"Paid for by Romney for President"
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
Wasnt there a bit of a kerfuffle over Rubio's alleged life story...
Yep, just touting the endorsement in vague but suggestive ways. I can't find any video clips yet but I've seen a number of web ads all over paid for by the same. Here's the Washington Post basically noticing the same thing as me http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...h-mitt-web-ad/2012/03/29/gIQA94KwiS_blog.html but not extrapolating from it
"Senator Marco Rubio Stands With Mitt"... sheesh
"Senator Marco Rubio Stands With Mitt"... sheesh
Yes there was.
I don't think that's a big deal anyway, "escaping communism" is not the electoral gold it once was, at least outside the Cuban expats community.
Plus I think that the GOP will find out that most Hispanics in this country will not feel automatic kinship with someone like Rubio, just because his roots are from a Spanish speaking country.
Most Latin people I've met don't even have an opinion about Castro.
And why should they?
We don't expect English speaking Americans to have a strong opinion about David Cameron, right?
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