Maybe you're right, maybe you're wrong, but the Walker recall will be the closest thing to a litmus test for Dem enthusiasm and Republican fatigue that we have 'til November.
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread
- Thread starter AlteredBeast
- Start date
- Status
Maybe you're right, maybe you're wrong, but the Walker recall will be the closest thing to a litmus test for Dem enthusiasm and Republican fatigue that we have 'til November.
At this point in Wisconsin it's the other way around. Democrats have been demonstrating against Walker for 16 months, this is the first chance his supporters have had to voice their enthusiasm for him. It appears that the Democrats are starting to fatigue (400,000 fewer primary votes than recall signings) while the WI GOP is revved up. Obviously that could change, but it's only three weeks away at this point. It'll be interesting if the ammo dump the dems are engaging in will work.
Latest poll has Walker up 5 and hitting that 50% mark.
Perhaps more interestingly, the same poll has Tommy Thompson slaughtering Tammy Baldwin for the Herb Kohl senate seat. It'd be nuts if both WI seats flip in back to back elections.
Fatigue? There is absolutely no fatigue in the Republican party here, especially not when voting for Walker. I've said it before and I'll say it again: The conservatives here worship this guy. Their love gets stronger with every leaked video and every statement made. They would kiss the ground he walks on. He's their new political Jesus. If there were a Ronald Reagan 2.0 for this state, it'd be him. If he killed his grandma most of his followers would justify it and try and say grandmas are thugs. They are all deluded and prideful with how much they love this guy. You can barely go anywhere in rural Wisconsin without feeling like you're sailing through a sea of Stand with Walker signs. Hell, a ton of people think those puny political signs are pathetic, and they've erected their own ungodly huge shrines to his holiness. My dad is one of them. There is no fatigue. This guy isn't Mitt Romney. There's no comparison at all.
Officerrob
Banned
Grover Norquist has said "Regan" about ten times in his first 15 minutes on Real Time. Give it a rest already
Nobody poured a drink for ME when I got banned!
And it was for a whole month!
But then again, maybe it's cause I got banned for political correctness. Damn libruls.
That dimwit's back on Real Time? Awesome. Maher tore him a new one last time he was on.
Which is why he's even more of a nimrod than I assumed if he thought bringing up Reagan would be a good idea after what happened before.
Actually there's a scam that a surprising number of people are falling for about "Obama paying your electric bill". It's a little scary, how many people are falling for it.
This is the worst voting campaign since Vote Or Die
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/...-are-doing-it-Recalling-Scott-Walker-that-is-
lol
I want to be young, attractive and sexy, too! I wanna do it.
You're talking passion. I am talking numbers. However, I am absolutely ready to believe you're right about both. But the litmus test will happen at the polls.
Manmademan
Member
attractive might be stretching it for the young lady in the ad.
If you looked at the primary numbers there is no way you would be talking about Walker fatigue.
happyfunball
Member
I want to say it's shocking that he's still polling so well but it seems like the steam ran out of the recall effort after they got the signatures. The election itself almost seems like something they weren't well-prepared for. And really, a rematch with the guy that lost last time? Is there nobody else qualified in Wisconsin?
Feingold, but he was afraid of losing and killing his career. That's about it. Neither party has a deep bench, but the GOP is probably slightly deeper. Kathleen Falk has been seen as a sort of nascent potential power for a bit but she got absolutely clowned (didn't even win her own precinct in her own county) so that pretty much ends her statewide career. Herb Kohl is done with serious politics (but he'll build an amazing legacy with infrastructure projects I imagine) and all Milwaukee politicians are old goofs with no shot at bigger offices. The state GOP has a lot of pull nationally with Preibus and Ryan plus Walker was willing to step into the fire and test out the new strategy for states. That said, even the GOP bench is pretty weak. Thompson is now considered a RINO and the rest running for Kohl's seat are multi-time losers.
If Walker survives this he's basically untouchable until he decides to join a presidential ticket.
I think it's mostly that the election is so ungodly long after all the protesting and shit happened. How in the world are you supposed to keep that enthusiasm up for that long? If it could have happened back when a few of the other recalls were happening there may have been a good way to push enthusiasm, but now? Nah. Walker just had to start ramping up his enthusiasm not too long ago (and pump tons of money into ads and stuff). It's like a marathon where his guys get to start on the last mile.
The other thing is that independents and stuff that are sick of politics in general are also angry at the democrats for bringing this whole thing up and starting the fiasco. Walker is easily turning political fatigue in general and annoyance with all of it to a gain for him. It really seems like you're only going to vote against him if you really hate the guy. I don't see many casual votes against him.
happyfunball
Member
That's what I'm guessing the recall effort didn't think through clearly. They've neutered the senate and took away his power which made him pretty much lame and possibly open to defeat during a normal election cycle with national candidates. This quick summer election seems like setting yourself up for failure but then I'm not a polisci major. No question he'll be seen as a national messiah for republicans along with Christie going into 2016.
It's worth a shot though. I would be pretty surprised if all close victors in Wisconsin don't face a recall from now on. It's relatively easy to do, as this past year has shown. Why not take two cracks at it?
empty vessel
Member
"We're doing it" in large, bold font is amazing. Do the youngsters still refer to sex as "it"?
As an aside, I appreciated your acknowledgement of bullying as a child. It makes sense, based on your posting style, which is not to say at all that your style of posting is bullying, just especially snarky. I wasn't bullied, nor was I a bully, but I only developed snark as an adult. Not sure if that's better or worse, as mitigation.
Oh snap.
That's a Wisconsin 8.
Maybe he'll do us a favor and follow his wife's advise and go back to the private sector to make some real money!
happyfunball
Member
Aaron Strife
Banned
No, but in a two person race polling above 50% is a big deal. And yes, Rasmussen lol and all that. If I recall he was close on every Wisconsin race in 2010. Either way, it's all there is.
Tomorrow is the WI GOP convention thingy where the party will vote on endorsements.
Flying_Phoenix
Banned
It doesn't really matter. There is no third party candidate so the winner will get over 50% regardless.
Al-ibn Kermit
Junior Member
Well tbf the merchandise are basically campaign donations that you can show off. The onesie is cute at least. I just can't imagine a lot of people buying it since it only applies to gay male couples with a newborn, and of course kids outgrow their clothes within months at that age.
That would never happen, not unless Romney came from a not-so-public Mormon family and if his wife was a very strict protestant/catholic and therefore required that he converts in order to marry her.
A man changing his religion just by his own choice would be seen as a heretic/untrustworthy by most people from ANY religious background.
Now it is true that Mitt at least seems to be observe all the Mormon stuff pretty well. Not drinking or smoking or anything. I have no idea how he falls on the spectrum of charity/tithes but I don't think you can say his faith is weak.
Aaron Strife
Banned
I dunno much about his Wisconsin record, but he did a poll in Hawaii of the Senate race where Inouye was up by 13 points. He won by 53 points. That's a 40 point discrepancy.
PPP said they were polling it this past weekend. The mainstream media doesn't like to trust them for reason-of-the-day, but they've never been shy about giving bad news for Democrats and they've certainly proven themselves. I'm waiting on them.
Thompson up double digits on Baldwin is fucking hysterical, by the way. Please, I know Baldwin's not the most electable candidate, but if you really want to believe Obama's leading by 4 and Thompson's leading by 12, have I got a bridge to sell you.
You really think that's not true? The only way Thompson loses is if the base stays home out of spite. He would fucking destroy Tammy Baldwin. Have you never actually been to Wisconsin? The only people who dislike Tommy Thompson are the tea partiers.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Fuck no, dude. It's a toss-up. Ras is literally the only outfit suggesting otherwise.
Judging by the fact he's barely holding onto the lead in a primary with 3 teabaggers suggests to me he doesn't have much support from the "base," either.
I initially typed a bunch of lol's but you deserve better than that. If Thompson gets nominated, he will win going away. Without question. His only difficulty will be getting the nomination, but with Fitzgerald, Newman and Hovde splitting the die hards, that shouldn't be difficult.
It's a Dick Lugar situation except that Thompson is actually charismatic as hell and is beloved in the state.
Aaron Strife
Banned
gee thanks
Last time PPP was in the state Thompson's favorables were actually underwater.
Yeah, I know as governor he was pretty well-liked, but that was also 12 years ago. His record is about as relevant to Wisconsin now as Bob Kerrey's in Nebraska.
Look, we all know how this ends. I get it right and you feel bad for a little bit.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Well, I can always take comfort in living in the superior state.
Hey, while we're predicting outcomes based on Rasmussen, I just want to apologize to PD. Romney's got it in the bag, his 7 point lead over Obama is truly something to marvel at.
I live in Indiana, which is about as close to heaven for me as possible in this country...except for that god damned smoking ban
Aaron Strife
Banned
Like I said. Superior state.
All the other states were red so I colored it in blue so you'd know which one it is.
Like I said. Superior state.
All the other states were red so I colored it in blue so you'd know which one it is.
DC?
Aaron Strife
Banned
It's not a state so it doesn't count.
In fact I'm pretty sure DC stands for Doesn't Count.
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
Like I said. Superior state.
All the other states were red so I colored it in blue so you'd know which one it is.
I've come to find Minnesota far more awesome then I expected when I moved here three years ago, when I basically knew literally nothing about it.
Aaron Strife
Banned
I find this is a pretty common phenomenon for people who move here. I've got a buddy from Michigan, came here about a year ago, he now considers MN his home.
I wouldn't mind living somewhere warm for a while (probably Texas), but yeah, Minnesota rocks. Its liberal bent is just icing on the cake.
Like I said. Superior state.
All the other states were red so I colored it in blue so you'd know which one it is.
Congratulations, you live in the home of the worst choke in collegiate sports history.
Aaron Strife
Banned
It shouldn't surprise you that I'm completely apathetic about sports.Congratulations, you live in the home of the worst choke in collegiate sports history.
Well, okay. I like the Twins.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Yeah, hockey in general never really clicked with me. Baseball and football are about all I keep up with.
And hey, we do have one championship team!
That's right, the WNBA, source of all my cheap middle school field trip memories.
NihonTiger90
Member
I'm sorry.
Also back on track here: does anyone else think that the summer lull before the conventions will mean the hardcore on either side of the political spectrum (that is, the far right and far left) will start muckracking like mad? I, for one, don't look forward to hearing that because Obama ties his left shoe before his right one, he's a communist.
SteveWinwood
Member
Minnesota gaf assemble?
Go Twins!
The Librarian
Banned
This just makes me sad. If there is one thing worse republican officials its the republican crowd.
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked