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[cartoon_soldier]

CBS has a poll where apparently Romney has swung up big with independents and women, taking the lead. It's not out yet, but they're tweeting about it. It also has support for making same-sex marriage illegal at 51% to 42%, which seems in line with PPP's somewhat pessimistic opinion of gay marriage approval.

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-57434153-503544/poll-romney-has-slight-edge-over-obama/

According to the survey, conducted May 11-13, 46 percent of registered voters say they would vote for Romney, while 43 percent say they would opt for Mr. Obama. Romney's slight advantage remains within the poll's margin of error, which is plus or minus four percentage points.

Last month, a CBS News/New York Times poll showed Mr. Obama and Romney locked in a dead heat, with both earning 46 percent support among registered voters. Polls conducted in February and March showed Mr. Obama with an advantage over Romney, while a January poll showed Romney edging out Mr. Obama 47 percent to 45 percent. Another January poll showed the two tied.

It's actually similar to all their previous poll results.

Romney Leading, to tied, to Obama leading, to tied to Romney leading.

 

[Tamanon]

Yeah, doesn't seem too different, just fluctuation.

 

[Gr1mLock]

So will Ron Paul fans shut the fuck up finally? I mean he won't run again.

But...oh no...no....NO!!!!!!!

The next generation.

Jr. Is pretty much a lukewarm republican aint he?

 

[Al-ibn Kermit]

CBS has a poll where apparently Romney has swung up big with independents and women. It's not out yet, but they're tweeting about it.

In swing states? Independents in red states will probably start liking him more just because he's trying to shakes that etch-a-sketch, and it's too early to really fire more than a few warning shots at his record (see: the recent Obama campaign ad on his experience at Bain).

Romney knows that as the summer begins, he'll have to face the full salvo of Obama's $1 billion dollar campaign. I think it would make sense for him to bunker up for a few months, saving money and letting voters forget about all the crazy things he said in the primaries.


Then start up again in the fall, attacking Obama for the collapse of the euro and gas prices and gay marriage and all that.

 

[ClassyPenguin]

Well he opposed the auto bailouts didn't he?

That is going to be one of the best attacks against his economic policies. Also that he is taking credit for the bailouts.

 

[Brinbe]

Cool... just hope close polls like that act as wake-up calls to the base not to take things for granted. Still need to put that work in and GOTV.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Cool... just hope close polls like that act as wake-up calls to the base not to take things for granted. Still need to put that work in and GOTV.

This election is very close and will be very close. I actually hope we see polls continuously showing Obama - Romney tied or Romney with 1-2 point leads for the next 2-3 months.

 

[PhoenixDark]

A new national poll from Gallup shows Americans are both warming to the current economic conditions and to former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, the likely Republican nominee. Romney notches his highest favorability rating since the Republican primary campaign swung into action, hitting 50 percent favorability against 41 percent unfavorability, well higher than his negative splits from early in 2012. The TPM Poll Average has shown Romney’s personal rating tick up since he became the presumptive nominee.

“The former Massachusetts governor gets stronger ratings than the president when it comes to handling the economy, the issue likely to drive the campaign,” USA Today, which commissioned the survey, wrote. “In the poll, 55 percent say the economy would get better over the next four years if Romney was elected, compared with 46 percent who say it would improve if Obama was re-elected. Twenty-seven percent said the economy would get worse in a Romney first term, compared with 37 percent who say that of an Obama second term.”

The survey also shows that Americans are viewing the economy more generally in a more optimistic way. From USA Today:

Though an overwhelming 71 percent rate economic conditions as poor, a 58 percent majority predict they will be good a year from now. Although those surveyed are inclined to say they are financially worse off than a year ago, nearly two-thirds say they think they’ll be better off this time next year.

That assessment of personal finances already is on the upswing. More than one-third report they are better off than they were a year ago — the highest number since before the economic meltdown in 2008. (They’re still outnumbered by the four in 10 who say they’re worse off.)

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entries/gallup-economic-optimism-romney-favorability-up

Horrible numbers for Obama

 

[Clevinger]

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entries/gallup-economic-optimism-romney-favorability-up

A new national poll from Gallup shows Americans are both warming to the current economic conditions and to former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, the likely Republican nominee. Romney notches his highest favorability rating since the Republican primary campaign swung into action, hitting 50 percent favorability against 41 percent unfavorability, well higher than his negative splits from early in 2012. The TPM Poll Average has shown Romney’s personal rating tick up since he became the presumptive nominee.

“The former Massachusetts governor gets stronger ratings than the president when it comes to handling the economy, the issue likely to drive the campaign,” USA Today, which commissioned the survey, wrote. “In the poll, 55 percent say the economy would get better over the next four years if Romney was elected, compared with 46 percent who say it would improve if Obama was re-elected. Twenty-seven percent said the economy would get worse in a Romney first term, compared with 37 percent who say that of an Obama second term.”

The survey also shows that Americans are viewing the economy more generally in a more optimistic way. From USA Today:

Though an overwhelming 71 percent rate economic conditions as poor, a 58 percent majority predict they will be good a year from now. Although those surveyed are inclined to say they are financially worse off than a year ago, nearly two-thirds say they think they’ll be better off this time next year.

That assessment of personal finances already is on the upswing. More than one-third report they are better off than they were a year ago — the highest number since before the economic meltdown in 2008. (They’re still outnumbered by the four in 10 who say they’re worse off.)

Horrible numbers for Obama

Yikes. And Rove's barrage hasn't even started yet. Amurica's warming up to Mittens.

 

[reilo]

Gallup hasn't even applied their Likely Voter model yet. Quit freaking out.

 

[Oblivion]

Can we PLEASE stop talking about Ron Lawl for any reason barring him somehow becoming the Republican nominee?

 

[RustyNails]

Is that PD with another positive Obama poll? You dont say!

 

[Flying_Phoenix]

Jr. Is pretty much a lukewarm republican aint he?

Not really. Between him being against pipeline regulations and privatizing the TSA he's a lot like daddy.

 

[Jackson50]

LOL. Yeah...my bad. I was studying demographics so much, i assumed that since white people voted 20% for Perot, well above what blacks and hispanics did, that it would have tipped the scales. The political leaning demographic results showed it evenly split down the middle. My apologies!

It's understandable. The notion has been widely propagated, yet most evidence indicates it was largely a push. Perot may have slightly reduced Bush's vote share, but the margin was not large enough to cause his defeat; I've yet to see evidence indicating otherwise. Moreover, when abstention is accounted for, Perot may have even reduced Clinton's vote share.

Very late on this, but it's super obvious that the White House planned this the whole way. But of course since it's Biden, everybody in the media just goes "lol wtf Biden and his Bidenisms har har har!!!!!"

It was a trial balloon from the beginning.

I read Obama orchestrated the gay marriage ban in NC to contrast with his announcement.

 

[Oblivion]

Yeah. He improved noticeably in the last few debates. And the general election debates should be slightly more felicitous. In the primary debates, he had to maintain a fine distinction between defending his record while not alienating conservatives. He was being assailed from the right. And considering he was positioned as the conservative option in 2008, I think he was poorly prepared for the onslaught. Further, the raucous partisan crowds only compounded the problem. Of course, Obama will be a considerably tougher opponent than man-on-dog or Newt. Ultimately, I think Romney will perform middlingly. He'll not impress anyone. But I doubt he'll implode as Perry did, for example.Well, the Republican Party is not exactly replete with viable alternatives.

Expectations are pretty dang low for Romney. Not as low as they were for the twittering twit of the Tundra (TM John Cole), but still pretty low. I remember how the media went crazy when he "outwitted" Perfessor Newt in the primaries. And by "outwitted", I mean he simply pointed out he's an asshole. Romney just has to remain confident and speak in complete sentences and the media will declare the debates against Obama a tie at worst. Currently the media's looking for ANY excuse to make Obama seem dumber than Romney just to keep this horse race business going.

 

[Drek]

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entries/gallup-economic-optimism-romney-favorability-up

Horrible numbers for Obama

Who cares what slanted questions like "how will you be doing in a year" and "do you think the economy will improve under X" says?

A lot of independents and even dems seem to be thinking we're getting on the right track now, so even with Romney they would honestly answer "yes" to the economy improving under him. Meanwhile most republicans think the second term is when Obama sells us into slavery to Europe,, so of course they'll have a more polarized view.

Its slanted questioning making up fake numbers.

You know what isn't slanted numbers? State by state polling. Where swing states currently stand:
New Hampshire - Obama up by 9% as of 4/23.
New Mexico - Obama up by 14% as of 4/25. Doesn't seem like much of a swing state these days.
North Carolina - Obama up by 4% as of 5/1.
Nevada - Obama up by 8% as of 5/2.
Virginia - Obama up by 7% as of 5/3.
Pennsylvania - Obama up by 8% as of 5/3.
Iowa - Obama up by 10% as of 5/8.
Florida - Obama up by 1% by latest Suffolk (5/9), Romney up by 1% as of latest Quinny (5/3).
Ohio - Obama up by 1% by latest Quinny (5/10), up by 7% (latest Public Policy), up by 2% by the previous Quinny (5/3).
Minnesota - Obama by 14% in latest SurveyUSA (5/11).
Michigan - Obama up by 5% as of 5/11.
Colorado - current tie as of 4/23 polls. 4/10 poll had Obama up by 13% on Romney in particular.
Wisconsin - Obama by 4% using Rasmussen's fishy "likely voters" numbers on 5/11, Obama by 9% in a Marquette Uni. poll of registered voters as of 5/3.

If you just count up the electoral college votes based on the obvious states for each and then add in the strongly leaning Obama states by recent polling data (NH, NM, NV, PA, IA, MN) you have Obama and Romney standing at these numbers:

Obama - 253
Romney - 191

That means Romney can't lose a SINGLE state out of VA, WI, CO, OH, FL, NC. When current polling data has Obama leading in all but FL, which is a dead heat.

Obama is going to focus his money on the rust belt mid-west region (WI, PA, IA, OH, MI) and the three southern states (VA, NC, FL) with a little bit of a detour into the Rockies to make sure NV and NM don't flip and likely quite able to push CO his way.

Romney will win the die hard GOP states by 20+ points. Obama will only win the die hard dem states by 10-15 points. But Obama is very possibly going to clean up the swing states unless Romney can find a game changer.

Problem for Romney is he's scared stiff after the primaries, how much real conservatives hate him, and how badly McCain dropped the ball with Palin. He's going to play it straight and convince himself that national polling means he's within striking distance. Then come election night Obama will start gobbling up swing states.

Axelrod with Obama on the point is the GOP's nightmare tandem. Barack and Michelle have huge likeability numbers and he's been guiding his public speaking towards his regional platforms for over a year now. Axelrod has already designed a very hard to beat strategy. Together they've got a fund raising entity that will make Romney incredibly reliant on PACs where many voters after the primaries are already far more wary about them.

 

[Chumly]

Nebraska primary tomorrow (not that anyone cares). Its non-stop commercials for the Republican senate race here with everyone beating each other up. Supposedly it might come down to the wire with some last minute endorsements and ad blitzes but I think Bruning will still get it easily. Democrat side is extremely boring. Ill go vote for Bob Kerry but I dont think ive ever heard an ad for anyone else.

 

[AlteredBeast]

Nebraska primary tomorrow (not that anyone cares). Its non-stop commercials for the Republican senate race here with everyone beating each other up. Supposedly it might come down to the wire with some last minute endorsements and ad blitzes but I think Bruning will still get it easily. Democrat side is extremely boring. Ill go vote for Bob Kerry but I dont think ive ever heard an ad for anyone else.

Bruning is a crook. Don't know who I am voting for yet.

 

[PantherLotus]

Very late on this, but it's super obvious that the White House planned this the whole way. But of course since it's Biden, everybody in the media just goes "lol wtf Biden and his Bidenisms har har har!!!!!"

It was a trial balloon from the beginning.

I thought this was obvious as well. The interesting thing is that the Obama team needs trial balloons on something this obvious.

 

[Chumly]

Bruning is a crook. Don't know who I am voting for yet.

Interesting last minute article

I hate bruning also. Deb Fischer seems ok although I am always wary of rural Nebraskans since they can have a real distorted view sometimes.

 

[AlteredBeast]

I thought this was obvious as well. The interesting thing is that the Obama team needs trial balloons on something this obvious.

It is strange to me that Obama thought this was a good way to do it. It made him look forced into revealing his position and unready for it. Obama revealed support for marriage for the LGBT community only after Biden's comments. Leading from behind takes on a new meaning in that scenario.

 

[Suikoguy]

In other news: does this describe someone familiar to you?

Glibness and Superficial Charm

Manipulative and Conning
They never recognize the rights of others and see their self-serving behaviors as permissible. They appear to be charming, yet are covertly hostile and domineering, seeing their victim as merely an instrument to be used. They may dominate and humiliate their victims.

Grandiose Sense of Self
Feels entitled to certain things as "their right."

Pathological Lying
Has no problem lying coolly and easily and it is almost impossible for them to be truthful on a consistent basis. Can create, and get caught up in, a complex belief about their own powers and abilities. Extremely convincing and even able to pass lie detector tests.

Lack of Remorse, Shame or Guilt
A deep seated rage, which is split off and repressed, is at their core. Does not see others around them as people, but only as targets and opportunities. Instead of friends, they have victims and accomplices who end up as victims. The end always justifies the means and they let nothing stand in their way.

Shallow Emotions
When they show what seems to be warmth, joy, love and compassion it is more feigned than experienced and serves an ulterior motive. Outraged by insignificant matters, yet remaining unmoved and cold by what would upset a normal person. Since they are not genuine, neither are their promises.

Incapacity for Love

Need for Stimulation
Living on the edge. Verbal outbursts and physical punishments are normal. Promiscuity and gambling are common.

Callousness/Lack of Empathy
Unable to empathize with the pain of their victims, having only contempt for others' feelings of distress and readily taking advantage of them.

Poor Behavioral Controls/Impulsive Nature
Rage and abuse, alternating with small expressions of love and approval produce an addictive cycle for abuser and abused, as well as creating hopelessness in the victim. Believe they are all-powerful, all-knowing, entitled to every wish, no sense of personal boundaries, no concern for their impact on others.

Early Behavior Problems/Juvenile Delinquency
Usually has a history of behavioral and academic difficulties, yet "gets by" by conning others. Problems in making and keeping friends; aberrant behaviors such as cruelty to people or animals, stealing, etc.

Irresponsibility/Unreliability
Not concerned about wrecking others' lives and dreams. Oblivious or indifferent to the devastation they cause. Does not accept blame themselves, but blames others, even for acts they obviously committed.

Promiscuous Sexual Behavior/Infidelity
Promiscuity, child sexual abuse, rape and sexual acting out of all sorts.

Lack of Realistic Life Plan/Parasitic Lifestyle
Tends to move around a lot or makes all encompassing promises for the future, poor work ethic but exploits others effectively.

Criminal or Entrepreneurial Versatility
Changes their image as needed to avoid prosecution. Changes life story readily.

And this is just from what can be observed publicly.

Spoiler

Taken from the top Google result on Sociopath

It's also fascinating how much this applies to

Spoiler

many politicians, but Mittens hit more bullet points then I at first thought

If the aforementioned person really is a

Spoiler

Sociopath

, then there is a high probability some of the non-bolded bullet points have happened, but have been covered up.

In other news, it scares the shit out of me that people are this way and in positions of power, but that's for another thread.

*I am by no means a psychologist, and credentials consist of one college class in Psychology.

Edit: Damnit, i'm turning into DailyKos

 

[Manmademan]

In other news: does this describe someone familiar to you?



And this is just from what can be observed publicly.

Spoiler

Taken from the top Google result on Sociopath

It's also fascinating how much this applies to

Spoiler

many politicians, but Mittens hit more bullet points then I at first thought

If the aforementioned person really is a

Spoiler

Sociopath

, then there is a high probability some of the non-bolded bullet points have happened, but have been covered up.

In other news, it scares the shit out of me that people are this way and in positions of power, but that's for another thread.

*I am by no means a psychologist, and credentials consist of one college class in Psychology.

Edit: Damnit, i'm turning into DailyKos

This isn't really news. Politics is a thankless, dirty business, and what's more its a thankless, dirty business that doesn't really pay well at all, compared to executive positions in the private sector.

The only people it's really attracting these days are egomaniacs, and those looking to manipulate the system for personal gain. The best and brightest do NOT go into politics. "good" polticians exist, but its very hard to stay principled when so much relies on compromising those principles to get yourself elected.

 

[Suikoguy]

This isn't really news. Politics is a thankless, dirty business, and what's more its a thankless, dirty business that doesn't really pay well at all, compared to executive positions in the private sector.

The only people it's really attracting these days are egomaniacs, and those looking to manipulate the system for personal gain. The best and brightest do NOT go into politics. "good" polticians exist, but its very hard to stay principled when so much relies on compromising those principles to get yourself elected.

The only way I can see to discourage sociopaths from entering politics is to give each position less power. Paying them more won't solve it, but might deviate a percentage of non-sociopaths from entering. If you include benefits, it's not all that bad as it is.

 

[AlteredBeast]

This isn't really news. Politics is a thankless, dirty business, and what's more its a thankless, dirty business that doesn't really pay well at all, compared to executive positions in the private sector.

The only people it's really attracting these days are egomaniacs, and those looking to manipulate the system for personal gain. The best and brightest do NOT go into politics. "good" polticians exist, but its very hard to stay principled when so much relies on compromising those principles to get yourself elected.

Or, I will add, whether those "principles" are even valid.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Obama's doomed, I tells ya! [citation needed]

 

[PhoenixDark]

Who cares what slanted questions like "how will you be doing in a year" and "do you think the economy will improve under X" says?

A lot of independents and even dems seem to be thinking we're getting on the right track now, so even with Romney they would honestly answer "yes" to the economy improving under him. Meanwhile most republicans think the second term is when Obama sells us into slavery to Europe,, so of course they'll have a more polarized view.

Its slanted questioning making up fake numbers.

You know what isn't slanted numbers? State by state polling. Where swing states currently stand:
New Hampshire - Obama up by 9% as of 4/23.
New Mexico - Obama up by 14% as of 4/25. Doesn't seem like much of a swing state these days.
North Carolina - Obama up by 4% as of 5/1.
Nevada - Obama up by 8% as of 5/2.
Virginia - Obama up by 7% as of 5/3.
Pennsylvania - Obama up by 8% as of 5/3.
Iowa - Obama up by 10% as of 5/8.
Florida - Obama up by 1% by latest Suffolk (5/9), Romney up by 1% as of latest Quinny (5/3).
Ohio - Obama up by 1% by latest Quinny (5/10), up by 7% (latest Public Policy), up by 2% by the previous Quinny (5/3).
Minnesota - Obama by 14% in latest SurveyUSA (5/11).
Michigan - Obama up by 5% as of 5/11.
Colorado - current tie as of 4/23 polls. 4/10 poll had Obama up by 13% on Romney in particular.
Wisconsin - Obama by 4% using Rasmussen's fishy "likely voters" numbers on 5/11, Obama by 9% in a Marquette Uni. poll of registered voters as of 5/3.

If you just count up the electoral college votes based on the obvious states for each and then add in the strongly leaning Obama states by recent polling data (NH, NM, NV, PA, IA, MN) you have Obama and Romney standing at these numbers:

Obama - 253
Romney - 191

That means Romney can't lose a SINGLE state out of VA, WI, CO, OH, FL, NC. When current polling data has Obama leading in all but FL, which is a dead heat.

Obama is going to focus his money on the rust belt mid-west region (WI, PA, IA, OH, MI) and the three southern states (VA, NC, FL) with a little bit of a detour into the Rockies to make sure NV and NM don't flip and likely quite able to push CO his way.

Romney will win the die hard GOP states by 20+ points. Obama will only win the die hard dem states by 10-15 points. But Obama is very possibly going to clean up the swing states unless Romney can find a game changer.

Problem for Romney is he's scared stiff after the primaries, how much real conservatives hate him, and how badly McCain dropped the ball with Palin. He's going to play it straight and convince himself that national polling means he's within striking distance. Then come election night Obama will start gobbling up swing states.

Axelrod with Obama on the point is the GOP's nightmare tandem. Barack and Michelle have huge likeability numbers and he's been guiding his public speaking towards his regional platforms for over a year now. Axelrod has already designed a very hard to beat strategy. Together they've got a fund raising entity that will make Romney incredibly reliant on PACs where many voters after the primaries are already far more wary about them.

A bunch of old polling data. I'd love to see those states re-polled now that Romney has revived his favorable numbers. I may have underestimated Romney, he just might be running a near perfect campaign so far.

 

[Hawkian]

I may have underestimated Romney, he just might be running a near perfect campaign so far.

Sometimes... sometimes I just don't know.

This is what a perfect campaign looks like to you?

 

[Particle Physicist]

A bunch of old polling data. I'd love to see those states re-polled now that Romney has revived his favorable numbers. I may have underestimated Romney, he just might be running a near perfect campaign so far.

How could you have underestimated Romney if you haven't stopped praising his amazing campaign?

 

[cartoon_soldier]

A bunch of old polling data. I'd love to see those states re-polled now that Romney has revived his favorable numbers. I may have underestimated Romney, he just might be running a near perfect campaign so far.

Gallup's own tracking poll has Obama +1 on Romney.

At the end, polling right now doesn't matter. Can we stop taking polls so seriously until at least September? Read the polls, look at trends, they don't need to be ignored and they don't need to be used to judge the final results either.

 

[GhaleonEB]

How could you have underestimated Romney if you haven't stopped praising his amazing campaign?

Romney is even more fabulous than he thought.

 

[PantherLotus]

yeah, romney is totally running a perfect campaign!

(lol, PD, nobody will believe you if you lay it on too thick)

 

[PhoenixDark]

He has effectively responded to every Obama attack thus far. His campaign's quick rebound on the Lily Ledbetter issue is what made me think "hm, maybe this guy has what it takes." And since then his campaign has been going blow for blow with Obama's campaign. It'll be interesting how they handle this Bain stuff though

Really the only mis-step was the Bin Laden fight, and they were never going to win that. It was a matter of losing or losing bad, and they lost really bad on that. But of course the jobs report killed the Bin Laden story days later

 

[Dr. Pangloss]

He has effectively responded to every Obama attack thus far. His campaign's quick rebound on the Lily Ledbetter issue is what made me think "hm, maybe this guy has what it takes." And since then his campaign has been going blow for blow with Obama's campaign. It'll be interesting how they handle this Bain stuff though

Really the only mis-step was the Bin Laden fight, and they were never going to win that. It was a matter of losing or losing bad, and they lost really bad on that. But of course the jobs report killed the Bin Laden story days later

Going to have to disagree. His campaign has not really set the narrative in any cycle to date. They have only been reactive to the Obama, not proactive. He won't win unless he gets the attention focused back on the President instead of himself.

 

[SouthernDragon]

Who cares what slanted questions like "how will you be doing in a year" and "do you think the economy will improve under X" says?

A lot of independents and even dems seem to be thinking we're getting on the right track now, so even with Romney they would honestly answer "yes" to the economy improving under him. Meanwhile most republicans think the second term is when Obama sells us into slavery to Europe,, so of course they'll have a more polarized view.

Its slanted questioning making up fake numbers.

You know what isn't slanted numbers? State by state polling. Where swing states currently stand:
New Hampshire - Obama up by 9% as of 4/23.
New Mexico - Obama up by 14% as of 4/25. Doesn't seem like much of a swing state these days.
North Carolina - Obama up by 4% as of 5/1.
Nevada - Obama up by 8% as of 5/2.
Virginia - Obama up by 7% as of 5/3.
Pennsylvania - Obama up by 8% as of 5/3.
Iowa - Obama up by 10% as of 5/8.
Florida - Obama up by 1% by latest Suffolk (5/9), Romney up by 1% as of latest Quinny (5/3).
Ohio - Obama up by 1% by latest Quinny (5/10), up by 7% (latest Public Policy), up by 2% by the previous Quinny (5/3).
Minnesota - Obama by 14% in latest SurveyUSA (5/11).
Michigan - Obama up by 5% as of 5/11.
Colorado - current tie as of 4/23 polls. 4/10 poll had Obama up by 13% on Romney in particular.
Wisconsin - Obama by 4% using Rasmussen's fishy "likely voters" numbers on 5/11, Obama by 9% in a Marquette Uni. poll of registered voters as of 5/3.

If you just count up the electoral college votes based on the obvious states for each and then add in the strongly leaning Obama states by recent polling data (NH, NM, NV, PA, IA, MN) you have Obama and Romney standing at these numbers:

Obama - 253
Romney - 191

That means Romney can't lose a SINGLE state out of VA, WI, CO, OH, FL, NC. When current polling data has Obama leading in all but FL, which is a dead heat.

Obama is going to focus his money on the rust belt mid-west region (WI, PA, IA, OH, MI) and the three southern states (VA, NC, FL) with a little bit of a detour into the Rockies to make sure NV and NM don't flip and likely quite able to push CO his way.

Romney will win the die hard GOP states by 20+ points. Obama will only win the die hard dem states by 10-15 points. But Obama is very possibly going to clean up the swing states unless Romney can find a game changer.

Problem for Romney is he's scared stiff after the primaries, how much real conservatives hate him, and how badly McCain dropped the ball with Palin. He's going to play it straight and convince himself that national polling means he's within striking distance. Then come election night Obama will start gobbling up swing states.

Axelrod with Obama on the point is the GOP's nightmare tandem. Barack and Michelle have huge likeability numbers and he's been guiding his public speaking towards his regional platforms for over a year now. Axelrod has already designed a very hard to beat strategy. Together they've got a fund raising entity that will make Romney incredibly reliant on PACs where many voters after the primaries are already far more wary about them.

This is why I read PoliGAF.

 

[ErasureAcer]

He forgot a poll. SurveyUSA just recently had Obama up by 14, 50-36 in the state of Washington. Dunno if ya missed it or maybe thought Washington is safe, as is Minnesota which was posted. I'd love some new SC, GA, TX numbers.

 

[Aaron Strife]

I love how Romney connects to the common man by waxing nostalgic about washing his shirts in the sink and how his dad would close factories in swing states.

And he's just so wild and crazy!

 

[PantherLotus]

It's called "winning the cycle," for people that think PD is serious. Romney hasn't done it once. And "blow-for-blow" is an clearly trolling, but other than the "Anne has never worked a day in her life" thing, which was quickly disavowed, Romney hasn't won a single cycle.

War on Women
Bin Ladin's Death Anniversary
Gay Marriage
Bain Capital Attacks

I'm not saying Romney doesn't have an answer for everything, I'm saying the problem is that he is being forced to answer something every single week and every single cycle, rather than pressing on some other front and putting Obama on the defensive.

That's the essential battle when taking on an incumbent, but this has been a seriously terrible campaign.

 

[Flying_Phoenix]

I know I must look really stupid asking this but did Phoenix Dark made a ban bet about Obama losing the election this year or something?

 

[Hobbestetrician]

I know I must look really stupid asking this but did Phoenix Dark made a ban bet about Obama losing the election this year or something?

I believe it was an avatar bet. I forget with who.

 

[reilo]

He has effectively responded to every Obama attack thus far. His campaign's quick rebound on the Lily Ledbetter issue is what made me think "hm, maybe this guy has what it takes." And since then his campaign has been going blow for blow with Obama's campaign. It'll be interesting how they handle this Bain stuff though

Really the only mis-step was the Bin Laden fight, and they were never going to win that. It was a matter of losing or losing bad, and they lost really bad on that. But of course the jobs report killed the Bin Laden story days later

I told you, if you're going to troll, at least do it well.

Right now you are making ClovingSteam look like a good troll.

 

[gcubed]

hi guys whats up?

oh, what day is it? PD be trolling?

 

[Diablos]

After Lucent spent a lot of money relocating a few hundred employees and their families and children a few thousand miles, he was instructed from his higher ups that he had to lay off almost everyone off about 6 months later. These people left their friends and their extended families, changed their kids' schools, etc, to relocate, and they get sacked 6 months later.

Holy shit... that's so unethical...

Why even spend the money relocating people if you are going to just end up firing them?

Cold as ice. I fucking hate corporations. Where's our modern day FDR?

Surest sign so far that Walker will likely win his recall election: Wisconsin Dems are already blaming the DNC for not investing money in the race, preemptively blaming them for their loss.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...walker-recall/2012/05/14/gIQAj6lxOU_blog.html

Way to blow a GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY, Dems.

And why the fuck didn't Feingold want to give it a shot? I don't understand. I kind of lost respect for him ever since he sat this out.

 

[Drek]

He forgot a poll. SurveyUSA just recently had Obama up by 14, 50-36 in the state of Washington. Dunno if ya missed it or maybe thought Washington is safe, as is Minnesota which was posted. I'd love some new SC, GA, TX numbers.

Washington is a layup state with it's demographic most closely related to other layup states (Oregon and California).

Minnesota used to be viewed as a toss up not so long ago. Its now leaning solidly Obama and it's closest states from a constituency composition standpoint are Wisconsin (swing state) and Iowa (leaning blue state).

What the election really boils down to for Obama is which of the THREE regions he wants to win to lock up 270. The southeast region, VA, NC, and FL, is probably the toughest battle but would basically have the election called by 11 PM. The mid-west region of WI, OH, and IA along with MO being somewhat debatable is a strong path to victory. Then he could go for a Rockies region win by securing Colorado along with keeping NV and NM, and then adding basically any one other state from the rest of the map.

Romney basically needs to pitch a shutout against the strongest campaigner the democratic party has had since Bill Clinton (and he was the strongest since JFK). They need to do this when the democrats have finally found their own counterpoint to Carl Rove (Axelrod) and have given him carte blanche regarding all things campaign oriented.

Oh, and best of all, they need to do this where Wisconsin has had a democratic ground game running for over a year to oust their GOP governor and state senators, and Ohio has had a similarly long movement to block their governor's push for ending public service sector union's ability to collectively bargain. Both movements have dominated their states since getting in motion.

Scott Walker and John Kasich put the nail in Romney's coffin when they went after fire fighters, police officers, and school teachers. Romney did the initial work though when he wrote of letting Detroit go bankrupt and completely poisoned the well in one of his 'home states'.

 

[eznark]

Walker up 9 in the latest poll. I have no idea who WeAskAmerica is or who funds their polls.

While other polls also show Walker in the lead, no one is suggesting that this race is anywhere near over. Walker only leads among self-described Independent voters by 47.6%-44.6%, and the underlying numbers seem fluid. Still, some of Walker’s detractors have been vocal about the fact that Walker was duly elected in 2010 and in most states would not be able to be challenged with a recall without greater cause. And a whopping 95% of those called said they plan to vote in the June 5th election which will have the national spotlight on it.

http://weaskamerica.com/2012/05/14/recall-fever/

 

[Oblivion]

I'd just like to reiterate that Debbie Wasserman Schultz is the most useless DNC Chair ever. She spends most of her time being on the teevee, and she's not even good at defending Democrats there EITHER.



In other news...Oh, sure Jesus might side with the gays, but that doesn't mean his followers have to do the same!

 

[Dominican Power]

What network do guys watch for your political news?

 

[eznark]

What network do guys watch for your political news?

GBTV exclusively.

 

[Kosmo]

It's called "winning the cycle," for people that think PD is serious. Romney hasn't done it once. And "blow-for-blow" is an clearly trolling, but other than the "Anne has never worked a day in her life" thing, which was quickly disavowed, Romney hasn't won a single cycle.

War on Women
Bin Ladin's Death Anniversary
Gay Marriage
Bain Capital Attacks

I'm not saying Romney doesn't have an answer for everything, I'm saying the problem is that he is being forced to answer something every single week and every single cycle, rather than pressing on some other front and putting Obama on the defensive.

That's the essential battle when taking on an incumbent, but this has been a seriously terrible campaign.

The only problem with this logic (and I think there is a good chance Obama gets re-elected) is that none of this "news" today makes any difference in the general election. There is shit that happened 3 months ago that people were talking about "Oh, this is a big problem" and people can't even remember what that is now.

Nothing that happens until August will have any real effect on the election (aside from Obama losing some of the black vote with this gay marriage pledge).

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Priorities USA Bain Ad

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fncJZXrzG8k&feature=youtu.be

So, the Obama Bain Ad was only a 71k buy for a day. But it generated enough press for a week.

Eric Greigo telling it good

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n7mLrUhBPMY&feature=youtu.be