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PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread

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GhaleonEB

Member
He's gonna win, Aaron, I think it's safe to say.

Too bad this wasn't tied to the presidential election.

I have this theory that the DNC is making a calculation in not supporting WI Dems in the recall effort. The first is that they thought it was unlikely to succeed, and if it did, would yield relatively little for them since the GOP controls the state House. High risk of loss (bye bye $$), low upside benefit.

The other is that they won't mind much if Walker sticks around the rest of his term. He'll be a good foil for Dems, both in the fall and during the midterms when he's up for reelection, which might also help Dem enthusiasm.

I'd like to see some cross tabs on questions about whether a voter approves of Walker's performance, and whether they think he should be recalled. I suspect there are some people who don't like him, but think he should be allowed to finish his term. Wisconsin is staring down the prospect of perpetual recall elections if this keeps up and I imagine many in the state are not thrilled by that prospect. I'm not a fan of recalls, myself. You vote the shithead in, you're stuck with him.
 

eznark

Banned
He's gonna win, Aaron, I think it's safe to say.

Too bad this wasn't tied to the presidential election.

As a consequence, the numbers in the presidential race are far, far closer than anyone expects to see this fall, with Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney just 47-46 among RVs (and the same spread among LVs). But that further buttresses the notion of an enthusiasm gap for the recall, because the June electorate is definitely looking more Republican-friendly than the November one.


That might have helped Romney.
 
I have this theory that the DNC is making a calculation in not supporting WI Dems in the recall effort. The first is that they thought it was unlikely to succeed, and if it did, would yield relatively little for them since the GOP controls the state House. High risk of loss (bye bye $$), low upside benefit.

The other is that they won't mind much if Walker sticks around the rest of his term. He'll be a good foil for Dems, both in the fall and during the midterms when he's up for reelection, which might also help Dem enthusiasm.

I'd like to see some cross tabs on questions about whether a voter approves of Walker's performance, and whether they think he should be recalled. I suspect there are some people who don't like him, but think he should be allowed to finish his term. Wisconsin is staring down the prospect of perpetual recall elections if this keeps up and I imagine many in the state are not thrilled by that prospect. I'm not a fan of recalls, myself. You vote the shithead in, you're stuck with him.

Forgive me if I really don't think the Dems are that cunning to not support the re-election for reasons you suggested. I'm pretty cynical when it comes to their competence.
 

eznark

Banned
I have this theory that the DNC is making a calculation in not supporting WI Dems in the recall effort. The first is that they thought it was unlikely to succeed, and if it did, would yield relatively little for them since the GOP controls the state House. High risk of loss (bye bye $$), low upside benefit.

The other is that they won't mind much if Walker sticks around the rest of his term. He'll be a good foil for Dems, both in the fall and during the midterms when he's up for reelection, which might also help Dem enthusiasm.

I'd like to see some cross tabs on questions about whether a voter approves of Walker's performance, and whether they think he should be recalled. I suspect there are some people who don't like him, but think he should be allowed to finish his term. Wisconsin is staring down the prospect of perpetual recall elections if this keeps up and I imagine many in the state are not thrilled by that prospect. I'm not a fan of recalls, myself. You vote the shithead in, you're stuck with him.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...consin-recall/2012/05/15/gIQAZn83RU_blog.html

A day after Wisconsin Democrats aired their frustrations with the national party, the Democratic Governors Association has put another $700,000 into its recall ad buy and Democratic National Committee Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.) has announced a trip to the state to campaign with Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett. Barrett faces Gov. Scott Walker (R) on June 5.

Token support or are they scared shitless by the PPP numbers?
 
Eww... one of my Facebook friends just shared an info graphic from Crossroads Generation. I was correct in my assumption that it was another Karl Rove superPAC. This one is trying to appeal to youth voters. It throws a whole bunch of stats on how this generation is pretty well fucked when it comes to schooling and jobs and stuff, and those assessments are pretty correct, but then just blanket says Obama/Obama's economy did it. It says "Obama has presided over the highest youth employment since the 1960s." Oh really? Mind telling me how he specifically did that? Try again Karl.

I would post something on the dude's status like, "To be fair, he is trying to prevent the Republicans from raising interest rates on student loans and cutting funding for Pell Grants. There's only so much he can do!" :p
 

GhaleonEB

Member
Forgive me if I really don't think the Dems are that cunning to not support the re-election for reasons you suggested. I'm pretty cynical when it comes to their competence.

Eh, I said it was a mix. It might simply be that they looked at the pros and cons of unseating Walker, looked at what they're facing on the national elections, and deided their money was best spent elsewhere. And also - having Walker as a foil is not all bad for them in the next cycle.
 
Dax01 said:
He's gonna win, Aaron, I think it's safe to say.

Too bad this wasn't tied to the presidential election.
Yeah it's all enthusiasm. Walker's supporters are rabid and Barrett's are MIA.

5 points can be made up - generally when it starts moving into double digit territory I'd call it Likely R/D/whatever.

Incidentally, Barrett leads among independents by 7. It's all turnout. If Democrats just show up in the same numbers as Walker's crew, Barrett can win. The fire just seems to be gone.
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Romney has got to have some of the most incompetent people ever involved in a presidential campaign working for him:

http://maddowblog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/05/15/11720815-ads-that-work-so-long-as-you-dont-think

Lots of funny in there, but at top of the list is the fact that they highlight a closed factory as proof of Obama mucking up the economy, but the factory in question is currently hiring.

This can't be that hard...
But his campaign is in tip-top shape! How can you not be impressed by Councillor Romney?
 
Oh hey, PPP polled the NC gubernatorial race over the weekend - McCrory's now leading by 6 (as opposed to 15 in January) based mostly on improved Dalton favorables; furthermore, the undecideds in this poll broke 57-28 for Obama & only 68% of Dems are backing Dalton, so it can (apparently) only get closer:

Dalton has both increased his name recognition and become better liked by North Carolinians over the course of his primary campaign. 54% of voters are familiar with him, compared to 42% in January. And his net favorability is +2 at 28/26, up a net 10 points from -8 at 17/25 when he first launched his campaign.

McCrory continues to be the most popular politician in the state with a +13 (41/28) favorability rating. He is very strong with independents, leading Dalton 52-29. He's also benefiting from a more unified party, with 84% of Republicans behind him compared to only 68% of Democrats who are backing Dalton.
 
Yeah, just like Democrats were confident there was a huge movement that'd surely beat Walker.
lol

I'm fairly sure recall elections are an entirely different animal from presidential elections in terms of who actually shows up at the polls. Obama's main constituencies don't exactly tend to turn out for the former nearly as well as they do for the latter.

(That, and Wisconsin hasn't gone for a Republican since Reagan's re-election bid - and even then its final result would've only been "Likely R" - rather than "Safe R" like 42 other states that year - in polling.)
 

Particle Physicist

between a quark and a baryon
Romney has got to have some of the most incompetent people ever involved in a presidential campaign working for him:

http://maddowblog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/05/15/11720815-ads-that-work-so-long-as-you-dont-think

Lots of funny in there, but at top of the list is the fact that they highlight a closed factory as proof of Obama mucking up the economy, but the factory in question is currently hiring.

This can't be that hard...

Lies, Romney has been running a near perfect campaign.
 
You guys are missing a point here. Romney doesn't have to run a perfect campaign to win. If people continue to believe that he will do better on the economy than Obama, Obama is in trouble IF the economy continues a slow with a slow recovery or god forbid Europe causes a bigger mess.

It will be much easier for him to show that the pace of economic recovery under Obama is sluggish vs Obama to make a case on trusting him on the economy.
 

eznark

Banned
Wisconsin, barring another recession or a SEVERE slow down in jobs growth, isn't going Republican.

GOP controls governor, house, senate, the majority of Congressional seats and one of two Senate seats. If the GOP ever runs a competent presidential candidate the state will go red.
 

markatisu

Member
You guys are missing a point here. Romney doesn't have to run a perfect campaign to win. If people continue to believe that he will do better on the economy than Obama, Obama is in trouble IF the economy continues a slow with a slow recovery or god forbid Europe causes a bigger mess.

It will be much easier for him to show that the pace of economic recovery under Obama is sluggish vs Obama to make a case on trusting him on the economy.

That would imply people believe anything Romney has to say, give the man enough time before he has those who have not paid attention to him so far confused as to his plans and his beliefs

There is a reason he lost to Kennedy and McCain in previous election attempts
 

RDreamer

Member
Wow, anyone watching Rachel Maddow now and her segment on Fox News' new scandal. They're calling Obama a political terrorist! His blog put up some stuff about donors to Mitt Romney, and one particular donor (who is actually a campaign official, too) came forward saying it ruined his life, etc. Fox also messed put he story in countless ways, completely fudging up facts and barely knew what the hell they were talking about. They're calling it Obama's Enemy List.
 
That would imply people believe anything Romney has to say, give the man enough time before he has those who have not paid attention to him so far confused as to his plans and his beliefs

There is a reason he lost to Kennedy and McCain in previous election attempts

I am not saying that, just that Romney has a much simpler case to make than Obama because of the sluggish economic recovery.

See. http://prospect.org/article/misleading-effective

They want relief, and Mitt Romney has offered his expertise. For Obama to succeed, he needs to show — convincingly — that Romney is peddling a false narrative and failed policies. Given the degree to which the fundamentals are leaning against him, this is not an easy task.
 

GhaleonEB

Member
Can we has panic time?

Greek depositors withdrew €700 million ($898 million) from the country's banks on Monday, fueling fears of a bank run amid the growing political disarray.

With deposits falling, Greek banks become even more dependent on the European Central Bank to meet their funding needs, exposing the central bank to potentially huge losses if Greece leaves the euro area.

Greek President Karolos Papoulias told the country's political leaders that bank withdrawals plus buy orders received by Greek banks for German bunds totaled some €800 million on Monday, a transcript of his comments said. A central bank official confirmed the figures.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303505504577406310678151998.html?mod=rss_economy
 

Chumly

Member
Deb Fischer just pulled into the lead for the Nebraska Senate for Republicans. This will be a huge upset if she pulls it off. Would give Kerry a MUCH better shot at winning the election.
 

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
Deb Fischer just pulled into the lead for the Nebraska Senate for Republicans. This will be a huge upset if she pulls it off. Would give Kerry a MUCH better shot at winning the election.

I like Deb Fischer. Yeah, she is from the country-bumpkin part of the state, but she is not a freaking slimeball in the likes of Bruning or the old guy whose name escapes me right now (the perennial election loser)
 

Chumly

Member
I like Deb Fischer. Yeah, she is from the country-bumpkin part of the state, but she is not a freaking slimeball in the likes of Bruning or the old guy whose name escapes me right now (the perennial election loser)

Yea Stenberg is a joke. Bruning is a crook. Fischer is honest I guess? I have been looking into her views/policies and they are the typical out of touch rural Nebraskan though.

EDIT: And its official! Sarah Palin certified Deb Fischer has won the republican nomination!
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Elizabeth Hasselbeck got destroyed by the Chairman on the View today.

I'm not sure why she thinks it's a good idea to ask questions.
 
Kerrey's chances of winning NE-SEN probably doubled now. Granted, double of 10 is still only 20, but it's a start!

Elizabeth Hasselbeck got destroyed by the Chairman on the View today.

I'm not sure why she thinks it's a good idea to ask questions.
As a Republican she's born with severe foot-in-mouth syndrome and lack of critical thought process

"WHAT'S THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN YOU AND ROMNEY ON GAY MARRIAGE LOL"

I bet she tweeted that she "got" Obama after his answer or something.
 
Just to counter PD

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/05/obama-up-big-in-new-hampshire.html

Poll was conducted May 10th - 13th, same as CBS Poll timeframe

Barack Obama has a healthy lead in PPP's newest poll of New Hampshire, quite a shift from the polls we did in the state last year. He's at 53% to 41% for Mitt Romney.

New Hampshire provides yet another example of Romney's struggles with women and young people. He trails 58-35 with women, more than offsetting his narrow 48-47 advantage with men. And he's down 59-29 with voters under 30, a more than 2:1 ratio with those who've already made up their minds.

Also, one important thing, that CBS/NYT poll was a call-back poll which generally presents a wider margin of error.

In any case, the race for WH is close. PPP had it at O 46 - R 44 this week in their weekly tracking. All within margin of error, all very close.
 

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
Just to counter PD

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/05/obama-up-big-in-new-hampshire.html

Poll was conducted May 10th - 13th, same as CBS Poll timeframe





Also, one important thing, that CBS/NYT poll was a call-back poll which generally presents a wider margin of error.

In any case, the race for WH is close. PPP had it at O 46 - R 44 this week in their weekly tracking. All within margin of error, all very close.

I just don't see what the rest of the country sees, and I understand that people aren't particularly bright, but Obama should be leading this by 10 points...
 

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
Obama should be leading by 10 points...nationally?

YES. Have you seen his opponent? This is Bill Clinton vs. Bob Dole levels of non-competing. It shocks me that someone running a campaign as crappy as the one Romney is running is even close. If I were Obama, I would be afraid if Romney actually decides to get competent handlers and spokespeople. All the dirt that Obama is slinging isn't sticking to what must be a teflon-coated robot.
 

GhaleonEB

Member
YES. Have you seen his opponent? This is Bill Clinton vs. Bob Dole levels of non-competing. It shocks me that someone running a campaign as crappy as the one Romney is running is even close. If I were Obama, I would be afraid if Romney actually decides to get competent handlers and spokespeople. All the dirt that Obama is slinging isn't sticking to what must be a teflon-coated robot.

Sad thing is, for the vast majority of Americans, their vote is decided once they see the letter next to the candidates. Republicans have a floor of around 40% (and in reality, Dems probably as well), and that's not changing if Palin was the candidate and a squirrel the VP.
 
YES. Have you seen his opponent? This is Bill Clinton vs. Bob Dole levels of non-competing. It shocks me that someone running a campaign as crappy as the one Romney is running is even close. If I were Obama, I would be afraid if Romney actually decides to get competent handlers and spokespeople. All the dirt that Obama is slinging isn't sticking to what must be a teflon-coated robot.

As Ghaleon said above, most of the vote is decided by the party of the candidate.

And I have seen Romney, you haven't seen the economy? No President is going to win by 10 points in the current economy.
 

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
As Ghaleon said above, most of the vote is decided by the party of the candidate.

And I have seen Romney, you haven't seen the economy? No President is going to win by 10 points in the current economy.

Ehhh, it has happened before, but perhaps not in this ultra-partisan world we live in today.
 

PantherLotus

Professional Schmuck
Wow, anyone watching Rachel Maddow now and her segment on Fox News' new scandal. They're calling Obama a political terrorist! His blog put up some stuff about donors to Mitt Romney, and one particular donor (who is actually a campaign official, too) came forward saying it ruined his life, etc. Fox also messed put he story in countless ways, completely fudging up facts and barely knew what the hell they were talking about. They're calling it Obama's Enemy List.

Yay for manufactured controversies.
 
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