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PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread

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Are they really influenced by the letter next to a name? Or is it that they've become so inundated in the PR of the party they've aligned themselves with that they now legitimately believe the other party is intentionally trying to fuck up the country?

I'd say it's less about Obama being a Democrat and Romney being a Republican, and more to do with almost all the Republicans having become convinced that Obama is this crazy evil guy that's trying to screw us over.

Slowly working against that has helped make my family dislike Obama a lot less than they once did.
 
Are they really influenced by the letter next to a name? Or is it that they've become so inundated in the PR of the party they've aligned themselves with that they now legitimately believe the other party is intentionally trying to fuck up the country?

I'd say it's less about Obama being a Democrat and Romney being a Republican, and more to do with almost all the Republicans having become convinced that Obama is this crazy evil guy that's trying to screw us over.

Slowly working against that has helped make my family dislike Obama a lot less than they once did.

I would in terms of true swing/independent voters, we are probably looking at 10 of the voting public. The rest of the independent voters are actually people who like to proclaim themselves that way but in reality lean heavily Democratic or Republican

http://thehill.com/opinion/columnists/mark-mellman/192503-myth-of-the-independent-voter

So, in this election cycle, 2+ billion dollars will be spend for 10% of the voting population.
 

Particle Physicist

between a quark and a baryon
You guys are missing a point here. Romney doesn't have to run a perfect campaign to win. If people continue to believe that he will do better on the economy than Obama, Obama is in trouble IF the economy continues a slow with a slow recovery or god forbid Europe causes a bigger mess.

It will be much easier for him to show that the pace of economic recovery under Obama is sluggish vs Obama to make a case on trusting him on the economy.

I think we all understand that... We are ribbing PD for calling Romneys campaign perfect...
 

Diablos

Member
Fuck. If the implications are as bad as Krugman and co. are insisting then, uh, yeah... President Romney.

I've thought about not giving a fuck about politics. I've all but completely lost faith. We're fucked. I try to be optimistic, and for a while I was feeling pretty good about Obama's chances. I do think he still has a really good chance... but I continue to get the sense that we're going to have a GOP dominated WH and Congress, the Supreme Court heading towards having an overwhelming majority of conservative justices, and a social conservative agenda that's completely out of place in the modern world.

And really, when you think back and look at Obama's first term thus far and the hysteria that we have all witnessed in this country, it's just very, very unsettling. The Bush years were depressing and a bit scary at times, but this era is downright terrifying. How much further down the spiral can we go?

You can say Obama's a weak leader all you want, but at the end of the day it has more to do with the GOP (and Washington in general) becoming so saturated in money and special interests that we are literally witnessing the death of a legitimate democracy right before our eyes. There's no arm twisting or backroom deals that can keep up with the pace of these people. The entire process has been raped. Where do we go from here? We can't even get a fucking budget passed. Seriously, how much worse can it get? Do we have to get to the point where people become so poor that they are rioting in the streets from coast to coast and going crazy?

I really miss the 90's. Things still got shaky, but at least a lot of GOPers were still sane back then.
 

Al-ibn Kermit

Junior Member
I would in terms of true swing/independent voters, we are probably looking at 10 of the voting public. The rest of the independent voters are actually people who like to proclaim themselves that way but in reality lean heavily Democratic or Republican

http://thehill.com/opinion/columnists/mark-mellman/192503-myth-of-the-independent-voter

So, in this election cycle, 2+ billion dollars will be spend for 10% of the voting population.

So taking the total populations in the 9 likely swing states, and that 40% of Americans will actually vote and also according to that article, 40% of the people who vote are officially "independents" (meaning the ones you're actually targeting with political ads).

So that comes to:

54,261,463 people X 40% (actual voters) X 40% (voters that actually matter)=8,681,834 people deciding the election.

Assuming half the campaign money (~$500 million from each side) goes towards those "on the fence" voters..that's about $115 per person.

Feel free to check my math. I used the population figures for these states:

Nevada-2,723,322
Colorado-5,116,796
Iowa-3,062,309
Ohio-11,544,951
Pennsylvania-12,742,886
New Hampshire-1,318,194
Virginia-8,096,604
North Carolina-9,656,401
Florida-19,057,542

Now of course, this article is all about true independents and not those who always lean way or the other. That can cut it down to just 11% of voters being real independents.

Now if you went crazy and threw all $2 billion+ at that 11% in the swing states, that's over $800 per voter. Most people would probably sell their votes for that much.
 

Diablos

Member
oh diablos

What? I'm saying:

-Europe is going to fuck our shit up (potentially).
-I am nearly completely losing faith in US politics. It's beyond depressing.
-We are one step away from having an all GOP Washington madhouse at the helm of US policy once more.
-You cannot deny how soul-crushing it is when you really take a step back and look at Obama's first term, and despite his accomplishments, how much has been completely dismantled because of special interests controlling the Republican party (and pussy Democrats). We've never seen such opposition since Americans were shooting each other in a war.
-It cannot get much worse than this. Everyone should be scared. If another dip happens, we're totally fucked, not just politically speaking.

There's nothing funny about any of this, nor is any of it too dramatic. It's what we're living with every day.


I just don't see what the rest of the country sees, and I understand that people aren't particularly bright, but Obama should be leading this by 10 points...
Well, I couldn't "see" what they did when they voted in Bush, either. The fact that he could get away with two terms (even if one of them was not so legit depending on who you ask) should remind us all that we need to always be prepared for the neanderthals scattered throughout the electorate that allow such rampant WTF-ness to occur.

Also, regarding Romney's polling: This is EXACTLY why I wanted a guy like Santorum to get the nom. Obama would have been wiping his ass all over the floor all year long. Romney has appeal when it comes to fixing the economy. Why? Most people can't say, he just does. MA. Governor. Business dude. Looks like a CEO. Economics. SHIT YEAH. That's all Americans care about.
 

Al-ibn Kermit

Junior Member
At this point, I think that if Romney wins than Santorum would have at least had a strong chance. I wouldn't risk it.

What? I'm saying:

-Europe is going to fuck our shit up (potentially). austerity/we can print our own money
-I am nearly completely losing faith in US politics. It's beyond depressing. you're way lttp
-We are one step away from having an all GOP Washington madhouse at the helm of US policy once more.negro please
-You cannot deny how soul-crushing it is when you really take a step back and look at Obama's first term, and despite his accomplishments, how much has been completely [/Bdismantled because of special interests controlling the Republican party (and pussy Democrats). We've never seen such opposition since Americans were shooting each other in a war.or letting black people drink from the same fountain
-It cannot get much worse than this. Everyone should be scared. If another dip happens, we're totally fucked, not just politically speaking.bring it on

There's nothing funny about any of this, nor is any of it too dramatic. It's what we're living with every day.


cheer up.
 

Diablos

Member
Outside of race, I don't even think the Civil Rights era was that bad in terms of just doing shit to keep your country in check.

Race? Well, yes, that was pretty bad.

Santorum never would have had a chance. I live in PA and have seen what Santorum is like when his back is up against the wall. He's a pussy. He's a bigger pussy than your stereotypical "spineless Democrat". Obama wouldn't have had to even try. When he's on the offensive, he tries way too hard, gets too angry at the worst times, and often is completely fixated on not-so-relevant things and loses focus, and spreads lies that are so easy to dismiss that they never have enough time to get off the ground. He's an awful politician, not very intelligent, cannot connect with voters beyond the core GOP base, and is batshit insane. He started out as a pro-choice Republican, but now he's a shell just like most other GOPers (but much, much dumber).

Bob Casey kicked his ass to the curb in 2006 (and if Casey can beat Santorum, even in 2006, ANYONE can):

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Casey said:
Casey's 17.4-point victory margin was the largest victory margin for a challenger to an incumbent Senator since James Abdnor unseated George McGovern by 18.8 points in 1980.
That's not just a coincidence, that's not just 2006 being a great year for Dems really driving it home for Casey; trust me, Rick sucks.

I think a lot of GOPers know this, and that's why people like Gingrich really stuck around for as long as possible. They hate Romney, but he's the only electable one from the crazy batch of candidates we had to suffer through in the news for how long.
 

Diablos

Member
Hey Diablos you know who's a little shit? That fucking Corbett. What a goddamn asshole.
Corbett has some balls though; he basically admitted to the public that he doesn't care about another term, he just wants to fuck with the state to his liking.

He's scum, but he's not as big of a pussy as Rick Santorum is... and while I doubt he'll get another term at this point, he will have definitely left his mark. And that was the point all along.
 

Amir0x

Banned
There was an article in the paper the other day that just eviscerated Corbett piece by piece. I've never read an article as brutal as that one. They were calling his draconian cuts to the poor, elderly and disabled, which he slightly reduced after the outcry, as "now just merely cruel instead of sick AND cruel."

Here's a man who runs a state who has this new revenue stream with the Casinos continually making cuts to the benefits of the most disenfranchised members of society, like a fuckin' little asshole.
 

Diablos

Member
There was an article in the paper the other day that just eviscerated Corbett piece by piece. I've never read an article as brutal as that one. They were calling his draconian cuts to the poor, elderly and disabled, which he slightly reduced after the outcry, as "now just merely cruel instead of sick AND cruel."

Here's a man who runs a state who has this new revenue stream with the Casinos continually making cuts to the benefits of the most disenfranchised members of society, like a fuckin' little asshole.
Yeah, I wish Democrats would have been able to run someone better (recurring theme, all over the fuckin' country, lulz). Onorato, while being a nice guy and all, hasn't really done much. The drink tax controversey here in the city alienated a core demographic: young voters, particularly in western PA.

Corbett doesn't give a damn about education (the last thing this state has going for it has got to be its Universities, if nothing else), the environment, the working poor, you name it. Textbook GOP and not an ounce of compassion.

It's also kind of gross how he apparently was on to Sandusky's molesting activities when Ridge was Gov, but didn't do anything about it until now after how many lives had to be ruined. What an asshat.
 
Setting aside domestic policies for a moment, I don't see how Romney would be a major player in intentional politics or what he would even be doing. With Obama you had a charismatic, intelligent guy who cared about America's image and had respect for it's responsibilities abroad. What do you have with a president Romney....?
 

FyreWulff

Member
I like Deb Fischer. Yeah, she is from the country-bumpkin part of the state, but she is not a freaking slimeball in the likes of Bruning or the old guy whose name escapes me right now (the perennial election loser)

Man, fuck Bruning. Glad he lost.

Kerrey doesn't have an auto-win at this point. He's going to have to overcome the carpetbagger label.
 
Fuck. If the implications are as bad as Krugman and co. are insisting then, uh, yeah... President Romney.

I've thought about not giving a fuck about politics. I've all but completely lost faith. We're fucked. I try to be optimistic, and for a while I was feeling pretty good about Obama's chances. I do think he still has a really good chance... but I continue to get the sense that we're going to have a GOP dominated WH and Congress, the Supreme Court heading towards having an overwhelming majority of conservative justices, and a social conservative agenda that's completely out of place in the modern world.

And really, when you think back and look at Obama's first term thus far and the hysteria that we have all witnessed in this country, it's just very, very unsettling. The Bush years were depressing and a bit scary at times, but this era is downright terrifying. How much further down the spiral can we go?

You can say Obama's a weak leader all you want, but at the end of the day it has more to do with the GOP (and Washington in general) becoming so saturated in money and special interests that we are literally witnessing the death of a legitimate democracy right before our eyes. There's no arm twisting or backroom deals that can keep up with the pace of these people. The entire process has been raped. Where do we go from here? We can't even get a fucking budget passed. Seriously, how much worse can it get? Do we have to get to the point where people become so poor that they are rioting in the streets from coast to coast and going crazy?

I really miss the 90's. Things still got shaky, but at least a lot of GOPers were still sane back then.

Stay positive. There are a lot of ignorant, hateful people but they are outnumbered. Society wants progress, no matter how much resistance there may be. There might be bumps in the road, but there is no stopping it.
 

PantherLotus

Professional Schmuck
Fuck. If the implications are as bad as Krugman and co. are insisting then, uh, yeah... President Romney.

I've thought about not giving a fuck about politics. I've all but completely lost faith. We're fucked. I try to be optimistic, and for a while I was feeling pretty good about Obama's chances. I do think he still has a really good chance... but I continue to get the sense that we're going to have a GOP dominated WH and Congress, the Supreme Court heading towards having an overwhelming majority of conservative justices, and a social conservative agenda that's completely out of place in the modern world.

And really, when you think back and look at Obama's first term thus far and the hysteria that we have all witnessed in this country, it's just very, very unsettling. The Bush years were depressing and a bit scary at times, but this era is downright terrifying. How much further down the spiral can we go?

You can say Obama's a weak leader all you want, but at the end of the day it has more to do with the GOP (and Washington in general) becoming so saturated in money and special interests that we are literally witnessing the death of a legitimate democracy right before our eyes. There's no arm twisting or backroom deals that can keep up with the pace of these people. The entire process has been raped. Where do we go from here? We can't even get a fucking budget passed. Seriously, how much worse can it get? Do we have to get to the point where people become so poor that they are rioting in the streets from coast to coast and going crazy?

I really miss the 90's. Things still got shaky, but at least a lot of GOPers were still sane back then.

but this time it's serious!
 

ToxicAdam

Member
Pew Research: "It has become increasingly difficult to contact potential respondents and to persuade them to participate. The percentage of households in a sample that are successfully interviewed -- the response rate -- has fallen dramatically. At Pew Research, the response rate of a typical telephone survey was 36% in 1997 and is just 9% today."

http://www.people-press.org/2012/05/15/assessing-the-representativeness-of-public-opinion-surveys/

Kind of surprised it's so low.
 
I can't watch the video at work, but this is weak tea, man. If the Obama campaign is running inaccurate ads, then the media is doing its job when it calls them out for it. What they do with respect to conservative ads isn't relevant here.

It is if the same "journalist" will interview Romney campaign folks and not call them out.
 
I bet she does this with all the Republican ads too.
She won't. Everyone knows Mitt Romney is a flip flopping lying asshole. Calling him out is like calling sky blue. No one notices. Obama on the other hand has integrity, a word unavailable in Rombot's programming. "Calling out Obama" gets the hits.
 

GhaleonEB

Member
Industrial production:

Industrial production picked up some steam again in April. While utilities played a key role, manufacturing made a nice rebound. Overall industrial production jumped 1.1 percent, following a decline of 0.6 percent in March (originally no change). Market expectations were for for a 0.5 percent increase.

By major components, manufacturing rebounded 0.6 percent, following a 0.5 percent decrease in March (previously down 0.2 percent). Analysts forecast a 0.7 percent boost for the manufacturing component. Motor vehicles led manufacturing with a 3.9 percent monthly surge after a 1.2 percent rise in March. Still, manufacturing excluding motor vehicles gained 0.3 percent, following a 0.6 percent dip the month before.

In April, utilities output jumped 4.5 percent. Atypically warm weather held down utilities output in the first quarter and April's number reflects a return to a normal trend. Mining output increased 1.6 percent.

Overall capacity utilization improved to 79.2 percent from 78.4 percent in February. The market forecast was for 79.0 percent.

Despite concern from some regional surveys, manufacturing is doing well in April. The latest numbers are more evidence that the recovery is slowly strengthening.

Housing starts:

We are starting to get housing numbers past this winter's seasonality issue of atypically warm weather and the data are moderately favorable. It is not gangbusters but housing appears to be improving. Housing starts rebounded 2.6 percent in April after declining 2.6 percent in March. The April pace of 0.717 million units posted higher than analysts' forecast for 0.690 million and is up 29.9 percent on a year-ago basis. In April, the comeback was led by the multifamily component but single-family also was healthy.

By region, the rebound in starts reflected an 11.6 percent increase in the South with the Midwest rising 6.7 percent. Weakness was seen with declines in the Northeast, down 20.7 percent, and the West, down 8.1 percent.

Housing permits declined in April but followed a surge in March. Permits declined 7.0 percent, following an 8.8 percent increase in March. The April reading of 0.715 million units came in marginally short of the consensus estimate of 0.725 million. Weakness was seen in the multifamily component in April while the single-family component improved.

Again, it is not gangbusters but housing data are likely past recent seasonality distortions and the numbers are on a modest uptrend.
Housing is starting to have a positive contribution to GDP.
 

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
Man, fuck Bruning. Glad he lost.

Kerrey doesn't have an auto-win at this point. He's going to have to overcome the carpetbagger label.

Well, he IS a carpetbagger. Whatever happened to representatives actually living amongst and representing their districts? He listed his sister's house as his place of residence. LOL. A multi-millionaire who was president of the The New School University, A longtime politician with a pension higher than 97% of the income of all Americans and so on has to list his sister's house for residence.

I was fairly certain he would win the election, but I am feeling like Nebraska is still feeling a little pissed at Ben Nelson for making us look greedy and petty with the Cornhusker Kickback (and the fact that he signed the ACA) and might not vote for Kerrey due to that bad feeling.
 
Theoretical Scenario Posed Here:

1. PPACA gutted on basis that Americans cannot be forced to buy insurance. The penalty is not a tax.
2. Romney makes it into the White House.
3. GOP has total control over legislative/executive.
4. Social Security is privatized.
5. Case brought on PPACA grounds stating that what is done with SS is illegal?


My question to you is this: We know the Court will rule that privatizing SS is ok.

How will the court justify its ruling?

Personally, I think they would justify such a ruling on the basis that you are paying a tax, and not a penalty for your SS benefits. They'll quote the Necessary & Proper Clause to point out how the government can implement it in the manner they desire so long as it's not unconstitutional, which this is not, since it's a tax.
 

Chumly

Member
Well, he IS a carpetbagger. Whatever happened to representatives actually living amongst and representing their districts? He listed his sister's house as his place of residence. LOL. A multi-millionaire who was president of the The New School University, A longtime politician with a pension higher than 97% of the income of all Americans and so on has to list his sister's house for residence.

I was fairly certain he would win the election, but I am feeling like Nebraska is still feeling a little pissed at Ben Nelson for making us look greedy and petty with the Cornhusker Kickback (and the fact that he signed the ACA) and might not vote for Kerrey due to that bad feeling.
Nebraska the land of shitty politicians. At least Kerry will raise taxes on himself to help other people. Fischer gets her own government handouts with farm subsidies while compaigning on reducing welfare.....
 

Trurl

Banned
I just saw this comment posted under one of Mitt Romney's Facebook statuses:
"Colorado Democrat Congressman Jarod Polis wants to "regulate" pizza in kids school lunches---making it healthy....

STOP THE TYRANNY NOW!"

At first I assumed sarcasm but now I'm pretty sure the sentiment is legit. :lol
 

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Tax breaks and subsidies aren't welfare, they are job-creation rewards.

I've never understood how the GOP has gotten enough people to believe that giving tax breaks to rich people automatically creates jobs.

How is it that every rich person can be a job creator?
 

Chumly

Member
Tax breaks and subsidies aren't welfare, they are job-creation rewards.
Farm subsidies is the welfare of farmers. Propping themselves up. Unfortunately it is needlessly outdated with people earning hundreds of thousands of dollars getting tens of thousands of dollars in needless subsidies. It only pads there bottom line. While the same people will bash the truly poor for receiving government help.
 

FyreWulff

Member
Nebraska the land of shitty politicians. At least Kerry will raise taxes on himself to help other people. Fischer gets her own government handouts with farm subsidies while compaigning on reducing welfare.....

Nebraska: the state of anti-welfare GOP politicos, with the state-owned utilities and massive amounts of farm welfare.
 
To address the point about the U.S. being different than Europe by Al-Ibn.

Under the GOP leadership, do you think the U.S. would avoid enacting the strict austerity measures that Europe has inflicted on itself (See: Ryan plan)? Do you think the GOP would actually willingly devalue our currency by printing more money? (See: Inflation worries.) Does the GOP approve of QE tactics? (Nothing I've seen indicates that they do.)

I believe that under full GOP control, we would not be functionally different than Europe. That's what terrifies me about Romney.
 
I see it as the last gasp of a failed ideology right before it's inevitable marginalization in an ever progressing society that has no need for backwards ideas.

Yet, this doesn't address the fact that the GOP platform has become more conservative over time, and they have remained a very relevant party in the national landscape.

One could certainly argue that as a result of their regression they've amassed more power over time.
 

izakq

Member

Maybe it's because of so many surveys that are being done and people are getting fatigue? I don't know, but at my home, we're getting around 2-3 survey calls a week. Isn't that's quite a bit much considering we're only in May? People are going to get a bit pissed off if they keep getting call after call to do this and will think it'll get worse as November comes, even though they are different surveys from different pollsters.
 

ToxicAdam

Member
I've been seeing a ton of political ads already in Ohio. A bunch for Obama and quite a few for Mandel (the Republican running against Brown). Now I read that Karl Rove's PAC is going to start flooding Ohio with pro-Romney ones. Has this always been the norm, or is this way early?
 

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
I've been seeing a ton of political ads already in Ohio. A bunch for Obama and quite a few for Mandel (the Republican running against Brown). Now I read that Karl Rove's PAC is going to start flooding Ohio with pro-Romney ones. Has this always been the norm, or is this way early?

They have TONS of money that they basically have to spend. This is the new normal. Welcome to Citizens United Election cycles.

By 2013, we will already see political ads for the 2016 election cycle. :(
 
I've never understood how the GOP has gotten enough people to believe that giving tax breaks to rich people automatically creates jobs.

How is it that every rich person can be a job creator?

It's a bullshit talking point generated by RNC. Rich People = Job Creators is utter nonsense. How many people you know that started business? Most of the ones I know started from scratch. They weren't rich. Bill Gates and Steve Jobs started from a garage. Zuckerberg started from his dorm room. They are the real job creators.
 
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