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PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread

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G

GaimeGuy

Volunteer Deputy Campaign Director, Obama for America '16
I see my comment about why prices will increase if the keystone pipeline is made is being ignored.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
eznark said:
The only reason I think this one is marginally legit is the big governors buy. That said, I don't buy for a second that he is leading among independents. None of the related questions in every other poll has shown anything close to that. It's also a bit difficult to believe that every single other poll from five different organizations has Walker up 5-8 points over the past month yet Barrett (who has made no significant splash) has a tied poll? It doesn't really add up. It's the equivalent of Walker releasing an internal poll that says he is up 12.

That said this rekindles my hope that it is close. I really, really, really want there to be a recount!
Click to expand...
I don't know about the other polls, but PPP's last poll of the race had Barrett leading Walker with independents by 7, 49-42 - but still losing by four. Same with Mahlon Mitchell for lt. gov, leads with independents by 9, losing overall by 3.

Of course, independents don't really have any skin in the game so they're not turning out in the same numbers as Democrats or Republicans. It's higher conservative sampling/turnout that's giving Walker the lead.

In that PPP poll, if Democrats made up just 4% more of the sample, then Barrett would have a very slim lead - less than a point, but it's there. I wonder how far the DNC's money will go to making up that difference. It all seems to be going towards get-out-the-vote operations.
 
E

eznark

Banned
GaimeGuy said:
I see my comment about why prices will increase if the keystone pipeline is made is being ignored.
Click to expand...

The problem is that you're looking at base price instead of marginal return. The mere fact that oil costs more elsewhere doesn't mean that selling the finished good overseas will net a higher return. The NRDC paper ignores the distribution benefits which will increase domestic margins and (as you point out) rapidly improve churn. These two factors are just as likely to cause an increase in domestic as foreign sales. It'll depend on world economic factors that we really can't predict with any certainty and will fluctuate wildly.

The pipeline won't just make it easier to transport oil, it will also make it cheaper both in cost and logistically. Pretending that it's a simple fact of supply and demand that oil prices will rise as a result of the pipeline is, honestly, not really worth bantering about. It's simply unknowable.

My guess is that the net result of the pipeline is a continued consistent trend in worldwide oil prices. It simply won't be enough to make a significant impact over any sort of real period of time.
 
V

VanMardigan

has calmed down a bit.
PhoenixDark said:
How have we not talked about this
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wHN0ZeS5c-4
Click to expand...

They played a clip of this on mtp after booker had said the Bain stuff that got him in trouble. Going back to that mtp appearance, its clear booker just needs more polish before going on national talk shows. He kept clumsily bringing up the fact that he was on the show as an Obama surrogate and how the white house had given him talking points. Gregory just looked uncomfortable, its not something you see guests yapping about, just too raw.
 
G

GaimeGuy

Volunteer Deputy Campaign Director, Obama for America '16
eznark said:
The problem is that you're looking at base price instead of marginal return. The mere fact that oil costs more elsewhere doesn't mean that selling the finished good overseas will net a higher return. The NRDC paper ignores the distribution benefits which will increase domestic margins and (as you point out) rapidly improve churn. These two factors are just as likely to cause an increase in domestic as foreign sales. It'll depend on world economic factors that we really can't predict with any certainty and will fluctuate wildly.

The pipeline won't just make it easier to transport oil, it will also make it cheaper both in cost and logistically. Pretending that it's a simple fact of supply and demand that oil prices will rise as a result of the pipeline is, honestly, not really worth bantering about. It's simply unknowable.

My guess is that the net result of the pipeline is a continued consistent trend in worldwide oil prices. It simply won't be enough to make a significant impact over any sort of real period of time.
Click to expand...
My comments are purely regional. You'd have to be an idiot to think it would make a difference on a global scale.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
VanMardigan said:
They played a clip of this on mtp after booker had said the Bain stuff that got him in trouble. Going back to that mtp appearance, its clear booker just needs more polish before going on national talk shows. He kept clumsily bringing up the fact that he was on the show as an Obama surrogate and how the white house had given him talking points. Gregory just looked uncomfortable, its not something you see guests yapping about, just too raw.
Click to expand...

Which is weird because he's such a good speaker, has been a good mayor from what I've read, and is a smart dude. He does so many interviews you'd think he'd be a pro at keeping his foot out of his mouth
 
G

GaimeGuy

Volunteer Deputy Campaign Director, Obama for America '16
eznark said:
"why won't any of you idiots respond to my comment"

now you know why
Click to expand...

The fuck? You just said it wouldn't make a difference globally. which it wouldn't. Because the amount of oil america has compared to the rest of the world is insignificant, and you're grossly ignorant if you don't know that.

I'm not calling you an idiot, I'm calling people who think we can significantly contribute to the oil supply (and thus, significantly affect the price) idiots.

Why would the midwestern US not see oil prices go up as a result of supplies within the midwestern US being depleted? That's what I'm asking you to rebuke. But you just went on a tangent about global reserves and acted all upset for no apparent reason.

Are you going to respond to me or continue to dodge?
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
Which is weird because he's such a good speaker, has been a good mayor from what I've read, and is a smart dude. He does so many interviews you'd think he'd be a pro at keeping his foot out of his mouth
Click to expand...
I used to think he had a good chance at being the next Obama.

But man, if he keeps doing shit like this...
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Whoa what speech was this from? (Skip to 7:37):

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3096434/#47560099

The Chairman was on FI-YA with that. He actually called out the Republicans for being the ones responsible for driving up the debt and and then blaming him for it. I don't think he's ever mentioned that in a stump speech before.
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
lol, didn't read this, but apparently Mittens advocated teachers take on MORE students. Sounds like a winning issue.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
Mis-speaks without a teleprompter, in Wall Street's pockets, more academic experience than work experience...sounds like Obama to me
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PD, I know you have a bet to win, but c'mon now. Point me to one Obama gaffe since the beginning of his presidency that was an off-the-cuff remark.

I'll give you Wall Street connections, but what candidate doesn't have them at this point?
 
P

PantherLotus

Professional Schmuck
I don't think every PD reply should start with the acknowledgment that we're not really being serious. kinda takes the fun out of it.
 
D

Dr. Pangloss

Member
Oblivion said:
Whoa what speech was this from? (Skip to 7:37):

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3096434/#47560099

The Chairman was on FI-YA with that. He actually called out the Republicans for being the ones responsible for driving up the debt and and then blaming him for it. I don't think he's ever mentioned that in a stump speech before.
Click to expand...

This is great stuff. I hate that American politics has gone hardball, but as Markos Moulitsas said, "If you think that politics are too 'icky,' then fuck you. Go watch My Little Pony videos instead." Also, the media won't challenge Obama. They'll just repeat what he said and ask what the other side thinks. We'll just be talking pass each other again. I would like a reasonable Republican party, but not agreeing to tax where the money is makes it hard to support them. That and I'm not socially conservative.

Also, I was thinking about Reagan's 1980 election, and his analogy of I want to grow the pie and not divide it up. That just doesn't work to day. The pie has been growing, but only the part dedicated to the top 1%. The rest has shrunk. Also, this video gives me confidence that Romney is going to lose the debates. Hey PD, you should watch to see Obama stuttering with his I, I, I, I, I. Maybe that is what you mean about his poor ability to speak off the cuff.
 
W

Wolfgunblood Garopa

Member
I find it curious when a know-it-all brings up Obama's wall street connections... as if the financial sector is some outside force that has to be invited to a seat at the table.
 
E

eznark

Banned
GaimeGuy said:
The fuck? You just said it wouldn't make a difference globally. which it wouldn't. Because the amount of oil america has compared to the rest of the world is insignificant, and you're grossly ignorant if you don't know that.

I'm not calling you an idiot, I'm calling people who think we can significantly contribute to the oil supply (and thus, significantly affect the price) idiots.

Why would the midwestern US not see oil prices go up as a result of supplies within the midwestern US being depleted? That's what I'm asking you to rebuke. But you just went on a tangent about global reserves and acted all upset for no apparent reason.

Are you going to respond to me or continue to dodge?
Click to expand...

The NRDC paper looks at prices and assumes that since they are higher abroad, logically the oil will be sold at it's highest price point. I get why they'd assume that and why they would write the paper (agenda driven research!) but it ignores the realities. It assumes that to maximize profitability, companies are interested in gross profit. Obviously it's not the case. Companies will sell where the net is the highest, so ignoring margins (which are expected to increase) and cost of production (which is expected to decrease) as a result of the pipeline is faulty.

Global prices matter for this discussion not because they will change as a result of the pipeline, but because they will impact where domestic oil is sold. That will fluctuate with unknowable global events.

If you feel like I'm dodging, that's fine. My point about quoting you wasn't that I was upset about you calling me an idiot (you weren't) it's that you're grating, quick to toss around insults and just generally unpleasant to engage in discussion at times so I kind of don't bother. Come to NFL/MLB and we can shit on each other all day long!
 
V

VanMardigan

has calmed down a bit.
PhoenixDark said:
Which is weird because he's such a good speaker, has been a good mayor from what I've read, and is a smart dude. He does so many interviews you'd think he'd be a pro at keeping his foot out of his mouth
Click to expand...

Its weird, mtp is already inside baseball, but he went all meta on them. To hear someone describe themselves as a surrogate and then point to notes in front of them and mention that those are talking points directly from the white house....its just pulling back the veil too far. And he made some good points too, but they were lost when he diverted from the very same talking points he said he was brought there to talk about. You could see Mike Murphy put on an evil grin as booker spoke about Bain, he knew right away what was happening.
 
T

ToxicAdam

Member
Greatest apology ever


Washington, D.C. Council member Marion Barry "stepped up his campaign to mend relations with Asians, apologizing again for disparaging remarks he made about Koreans and Filipinos," noting the United States "has had racial tensions since it was founded," the Washington Post reports.

Said Barry: "The Irish caught hell, the Jews caught hell, the Polacks caught hell."


Asked later about his reference to "Polacks," Barry at first denied using the word, then retracted it. "I meant Poles."
Click to expand...
 
C

Chumly

Member
Oblivion said:
lol, didn't read this, but apparently Mittens advocated teachers take on MORE students. Sounds like a winning issue.
Click to expand...
Mittens wouldn't know shit about what happens in a normal classroom anyways. I would love for him to advocate that rich private schools have to have the same teacher to student ratio that public schools do (and they would have to have 50 percent poor people with his mega vouchers)
 
B

Bulbo Urethral Baggins

Banned
Obama seemed to be quite the pothead in HS.
A self-selected group of boys at Punahou School who loved basketball and good times called themselves the Choom Gang. As a member of the Choom Gang, Barry Obama was known for starting a few pot-smoking trends. The first was called "TA," short for "total absorption." When you were with Barry and his pals, if you exhaled precious pakalolo (Hawaiian slang for marijuana, meaning "numbing tobacco") instead of absorbing it fully into your lungs, you were assessed a penalty and your turn was skipped the next time the joint came around. "Wasting good bud smoke was not tolerated," explained one member of the Choom Gang
Click to expand...

http://www.buzzfeed.com/gavon/a-users-guide-to-smoking-pot-with-barack-obama
 
W

Wolfgunblood Garopa

Member
Bulbo Urethral Baggins said:
Excellent article in Washington Post on Obama's public equity record and how it may backfire on him to bash private equity firms.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/forget-bain-obamas-public-equity-record-is-the-real-scandal/2012/05/24/gJQAXnXCnU_story.html
Click to expand...

If Romney is President, maybe Obama will join a PE firm and get some real job creating business experience with leveraged buyouts, gaming the tax code, pocketing millions while leaving the government to pay for pensioners... too bad he didn't come from that kind of background, maybe we wouldn't be in the mess we're in today.
 
P

Plumbob

Member
Bulbo Urethral Baggins said:
Excellent article in Washington Post on Obama's public equity record and how it may backfire on him to bash private equity firms.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/forget-bain-obamas-public-equity-record-is-the-real-scandal/2012/05/24/gJQAXnXCnU_story.html
Click to expand...

Swing and a miss:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print...raction-of-default-budget-bgov-barometer.html

The default rate on the U.S. clean- energy loan program that funded Solyndra LLC is a fraction of what the government budgeted for losses.

The BGOV Barometer shows the default rate on the $16.1 billion Energy Department loan portfolio is less than 3.6 percent. The White House planned for defaults of as much as 12.85 percent for loans to solar, wind and bio-energy projects, according to the Office of Management and Budget.
Click to expand...
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Byakuya769 said:
And deftly ignores their post election relationship with Obama being pretty icy.
Click to expand...

That's a product of them being sensitive, conceited assholes - not one of Obama slapping them around or god forbid, throwing some in jail where they belong. Every article about Obama's current problems with Wall Street includes a comment from someone handwringing over him talking bad about them. They not only want all the pie, they want everyone to be told why it's perfectly ok for them to have it all, and any talk about sharing=socialism or class warfare. They're getting what, 70% of the pie from Obama and his Wall Street lobbyist economic administration and are still mad
 
E

el retorno

Member
B

Bulbo Urethral Baggins

Banned
mckmas8808

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Dr. Pangloss said:
Also, I was thinking about Reagan's 1980 election, and his analogy of I want to grow the pie and not divide it up. That just doesn't work to day. The pie has been growing, but only the part dedicated to the top 1%. The rest has shrunk. Also, this video gives me confidence that Romney is going to lose the debates. Hey PD, you should watch to see Obama stuttering with his I, I, I, I, I. Maybe that is what you mean about his poor ability to speak off the cuff.
Click to expand...

Growing the pie only never worked. It was always about diving the current pie and also trying to grow it.
 
W

Wolfgunblood Garopa

Member
PhoenixDark said:
They not only want all the pie, they want everyone to be told why it's perfectly ok for them to have it all, and any talk about sharing=socialism or class warfare. They're getting what, 70% of the pie from Obama and his Wall Street lobbyist economic administration and are still mad
Click to expand...

You're right. But time and effort is better spent opposing those who would promote corporate fascism, and of course you know the best chance we have is another term for Obama.
 
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