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PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread

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B

Blergmeister

Member
eznark said:
That's bizarre. If they were so motivated why not just, ya know, vote Walker out? I personally think the opposite is more likely to happen, Dems will be dejected (especially kids and minorities) and turnout will be low in November.

Plus don't forget the secret GOP weapon, voter ID.
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Is that going to be through the courts by the general?
 
E

eznark

Banned
^ Yeah. I think it's going to be heard in early Summer. It'll get ok'd by the state supreme court and kicked to the USSC but I doubt there will be an injunction in the interim. It will be approved by the USSC as well, it's generally identical to Indiana's law (yet again, Walker is basically just Mitch Daniels without the tact).

codhand said:
Yikes, you haven't been to Indiana recently. No way Obama wins it again.
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I don't know, Lugar could go rogue on the GOP and make some waves across the state. He already told Mourdock to go fuck himself.
 
C

codhand

Member
eznark said:
I don't know, Lugar could go rogue on the GOP and make some waves across the state. He already told Mourdock to go fuck himself.
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I left Indiana in '04 and visit friends there every other year, this was the first year I could actually feel the hate.
 
D

Diablos

Member
When the GE heats up and WI voters see what's at stake I think the reality will be different than it is today. The Walker recall is very local whereas the GE is national. And the Unions will deliver. WI's GOP dominated legislature will not last forever and you will start to see that being reflected in who turns out (same goes here in PA but on a much smaller scale -- regardless, Corbett and his cronies in the legislature will be getting their asses handed to them over the next couple years, and I do not see my Gov getting a second term).

The GOP will be up to their dirty tricks at the polls, of course. We can expect that. But that doesn't mean they will succeed every time.

PhoenixDark said:
He's even more of a corporate shill than Obama, and doesn't like unions. Good luck with that
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Yeah yeah yeah. Charisma is the name of the game in US politics. Cuomo looks tough, can talk tough if he wants, but speaks well and understands the needs of voters well enough to jump in a primary and win it. He would do well with swing voters if he can come up with a good ground game. He might be a corporate shill but most Democrats are. I'd still rather have him than anyone in the GOP, and unless you can think of a better candidate for 2016, Cuomo is the best person I can possibly think of at this point in time -- unless Hillary (or uh Biden, lol) decides to pull a McCain and run at a really old age, but that's wishful thinking. Or we could get another Barack Obama type that just comes out of nowhere in 2014 or something and captivates the electorate, but really, that's a once-in-a-generation kind of thing.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
ToxicAdam said:
I think his point was that many people believed McCain was too old when he ran.
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This. Also, Biden is one of the most indisciplined politicians in the country. That plus his age would certainly create an impression of incompetence

Does the US really want a president who could be around 78 running for re-election? Reagan was 69 in 1980 (first term)
 
E

eznark

Banned
Diablos said:
When the GE heats up and WI voters see what's at stake I think the reality will be different than it is today. The Walker recall is very local whereas the GE is national. And the Unions will deliver. WI's GOP dominated legislature will not last forever and you will start to see that being reflected in who turns out (same goes here in PA but on a much smaller scale -- regardless, Corbett and his cronies in the legislature will be getting their asses handed to them over the next couple years, and I do not see my Gov getting a second term).

The GOP will be up to their dirty tricks at the polls, of course. We can expect that. But that doesn't mean they will succeed every time.
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This analysis seems completely in the clouds. Why would they be able to deliver a likely meaningless state yet completely fold and fail in a race that was their Line in The Sand. Tumpka et all chose Wisconsin and Act 10 as their Alamo. If they get clowned next week they have no shot at delivering the state for Obama. (He'll still win, but it certainly won't be because of the unions). It makes no sense that they'd give up on an election that is actually meaningful for them and pour tons of money in for a presidential race that won't be close nationally.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
eznark said:
This analysis seems completely in the clouds. Why would they be able to deliver a likely meaningless state yet completely fold and fail in a race that was their Line in The Sand. Tumpka et all chose Wisconsin and Act 10 as their Alamo. If they get clowned next week they have no shot at delivering the state for Obama. (He'll still win, but it certainly won't be because of the unions). It makes no sense that they'd give up on an election that is actually meaningful for them and pour tons of money in for a presidential race that won't be close nationally.
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Most National Democrats did not want the recall to happen at all. They always believed there was a better shot at replacing Walker when he is up for re-election in 2014.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...plications/2012/05/26/gJQAYk7msU_story_1.html

Many national Democrats, including some Obama advisers and some national union officials, were unenthusiastic about trying to recall Walker this year. They saw Walker as weakened by the political turbulence he touched off and therefore someone who would be vulnerable in a 2014 reelection campaign. They also worried that a recall campaign five months before the November election would be a hugely costly undertaking. They feared that it could leave their forces exhausted and, if Walker were to win, demoralized heading into November.
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As to what is different between the recall election and 2014 - Lots. You say Trumka, that's just union members. GE will have Obama getting support from a lot more than just WI unions.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Diablos said:
Yeah yeah yeah. Charisma is the name of the game in US politics. Cuomo looks tough, can talk tough if he wants, but speaks well and understands the needs of voters well enough to jump in a primary and win it. He would do well with swing voters if he can come up with a good ground game. He might be a corporate shill but most Democrats are. I'd still rather have him than anyone in the GOP, and unless you can think of a better candidate for 2016, Cuomo is the best person I can possibly think of at this point in time -- unless Hillary (or uh Biden, lol) decides to pull a McCain and run at a really old age, but that's wishful thinking. Or we could get another Barack Obama type that just comes out of nowhere in 2014 or something and captivates the electorate, but really, that's a once-in-a-generation kind of thing.
Click to expand...

America will not elect a candidate who has a girlfriend in 2012, especially a democrat from New York. Cuomo wouldn't even play in Iowa
 
E

eznark

Banned
cartoon_soldier said:
Most National Democrats did not want the recall to happen at all. They always believed there was a better shot at replacing Walker when he is up for re-election in 2014.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...plications/2012/05/26/gJQAYk7msU_story_1.html



As to what is different between the recall election and 2014 - Lots. You say Trumka, that's just union members. GE will have Obama getting support from a lot more than just WI unions.
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Yeah, but he specifically said "unions will deliver Wisconsin" which is the point I took issue with.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
I'm glad democrats are pumping money into the race now; before you could see the left wing narrative building that the party was going to lose what should have been a win. Now DailyKos and others won't have any smart spin or excuses when Barrett gets stomped

Should have waited for November or 2014
 
D

Diablos

Member
eznark said:
Yeah, but he specifically said "unions will deliver Wisconsin" which is the point I took issue with.
Click to expand...
It's not the Unions exclusively but their constant turnout in elections combined with GE enthusiasm that is nonexistent in midterms/special elections that will help deliver. They are a reliable voter group, crucial to a part of the formula that is absolutely necessary to delivering the state to Democrats. But without the Unions, WI becomes like a lot of other midwestern states: Always in the red column.
 
M

Mutanthands

Member
Donald Trump is making a fool of himself live on CNN at the moment. Still pushing the Birther agenda. He actually made Wolf Blitzer sound like a genius in comparison. Romney must be thrilled...
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
America will not elect a candidate who has a girlfriend in 2012, especially a democrat from New York. Cuomo wouldn't even play in Iowa
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I'd disagree with all of that.

Hillary Clinton is also a Democrat from New York and I think that's the kind of appeal Cuomo would have.

And if Hillary ran in 2016, she'd probably mop up Iowa.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
I'd disagree with all of that.

Hillary Clinton is also a Democrat from New York and I think that's the kind of appeal Cuomo would have.

And if Hillary ran in 2016, she'd probably mop up Iowa.
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Clinton comes from one of the most respected/poplar families in the country, has unquestionable credentials, and isn't "really" from New York. Of course she'd mop up Iowa, she's a known commodity and would most likely have Obama's support.

Cuomo is the definition of an east coast liberal elitist, with massive ties to Wall Street, a girlfriend, anti-union views, etc. I don't see that playing well in early states, and ultimately I see him being a democrat Romney (circa 07/08) with lots of money but little support

Mark Warner would mop the floor with him
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Do you really think Cuomo having a girlfriend is going to mean shit in 2016?

They could be married by then. Or it could be a complete non-issue.

If having a girlfriend has a negative effect in a Democratic primary, I quit politics. That's bullshit.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
Do you really think Cuomo having a girlfriend is going to mean shit in 2016?

They could be married by then. Or it could be a complete non-issue.

If having a girlfriend has a negative effect in a Democratic primary, I quit politics. That's bullshit.
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On a national scale yes, I think it will be a problem. I can't see Iowans or folks in SC, Nevada, etc being cool with him.

Warner could be the southern son, Brian Schweitzer could be the dark horse "anti-establishment" candidate as Obama was,
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
On a national scale yes, I think it will be a problem. I can't see Iowans or folks in SC, Nevada, etc being cool with him.

Warner could be the southern son, Brian Schweitzer could be the dark horse "anti-establishment" candidate as Obama was,
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Maybe I'm giving America too much credit, but I would be so fucking embarrassed if someone having a girlfriend was what cost them the nomination for the supposedly liberal party.

And I repeat - they could very easily be married by the time the election starts anyway, making the whole thing not even an issue. And any politician trying to make it an issue would suffer a lot of backlash, I would think.
 
S

Stinkles

Clothed, sober, cooperative
PhoenixDark said:
Clinton comes from one of the most respected/poplar families in the country, has unquestionable credentials, and isn't "really" from New York. Of course she'd mop up Iowa, she's a known commodity and would most likely have Obama's support.

Cuomo is the definition of an east coast liberal elitist, with massive ties to Wall Street, a girlfriend, anti-union views, etc. I don't see that playing well in early states, and ultimately I see him being a democrat Romney (circa 07/08) with lots of money but little support

Mark Warner would mop the floor with him
Click to expand...

Fucking godless scum.
 
mckmas8808

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
GTI Guy said:
Romney doesn’t back away from ‘birther’ Trump

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/05/28/romney-doesnt-back-away-from-birther-trump/

“You know, I don't agree with all the people who support me and my guess is they don't all agree with everything I believe in,” Romney said. “But I need to get 50.1% or more and I'm appreciative to have the help of a lot of good people.”

Anything for a vote....SMH
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Is he fucking stupid or something?! He does know that you don't win with 50.1% of the vote right?
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
cartoon_soldier said:
Can you imagine the media fury AGAINST the Obama campaign if one of their surrogates was ranting on Mormonism like Trump is.
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I must admit Trump is different. An Obama surrogate would likely be some political nobody. Trump is...well, Trump. It creates a level of celebrity and amusement few other personalities have.

It's interesting that the Obama campaign keeps coming up with a new distraction from the economy each week. From Bin Laden to gay marriage to bitherism. Trump feeds on the attention, I see no point in engaging him - much less acting like Romney's handling of the situation says something about his character. Especially coming from the guy who has been Guilt Of Association Dude #1 for four years
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
PhoenixDark said:
I must admit Trump is different. An Obama surrogate would likely be some political nobody. Trump is...well, Trump. It creates a level of celebrity and amusement few other personalities have.

It's interesting that the Obama campaign keeps coming up with a new distraction from the economy each week. From Bin Laden to gay marriage to bitherism. Trump feeds on the attention, I see no point in engaging him - much less acting like Romney's handling of the situation says something about his character. Especially coming from the guy who has been Guilt Of Association Dude #1 for four years
Click to expand...

You don't think Romney's handling of extremist views of his party matter at all? This isn't guilt by association, this is can Romney stand up to his own party's extremists?

And Trump shouldn't be different, at this point, he is a top Romney surrogate and fund raiser. He may like to be the center of attention but that doesn't mean it is okay for Romney to not repudiate Trump.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
PhoenixDark said:
It's interesting that the Obama campaign keeps coming up with a new distraction from the economy each week. From Bin Laden to gay marriage to bitherism. Trump feeds on the attention, I see no point in engaging him - much less acting like Romney's handling of the situation says something about his character. Especially coming from the guy who has been Guilt Of Association Dude #1 for four years
Click to expand...
Is this your first incumbent election? The idea for the incumbent is to corner the challenger on the defensive, rather than the incumbent defending his record. Keep Romney busy explaining his 20 different stances on a single issue. This isn't unique to Obama or the Obama re-election campaign.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
cartoon_soldier said:
You don't think Romney's handling of extremist views of his party matter at all? This isn't guilt by association, this is can Romney stand up to his own party's extremists?

And Trump shouldn't be different, at this point, he is a top Romney surrogate and fund raiser. He may like to be the center of attention but that doesn't mean it is okay for Romney to not repudiate Trump.
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Why should he repudiate him over an irrelevant issue that was settled more than a year ago? Romney has said Obama was born in the US, that's all that matters.
 
mckmas8808

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
PhoenixDark said:
Why should he repudiate him over an irrelevant issue that was settled more than a year ago? Romney has said Obama was born in the US, that's all that matters.
Click to expand...

So he shouldn't have to answer for a guy that he continues to meet in public and is publicly fund raising for him?

You don't even think he should be asked?
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
cartoon_soldier said:
So, it would be fine to fund raise and have a racist as a campaign surrogate too as long as you aren't one?
Click to expand...

That's a bad analogy.

If Romney feels Trump is hurting his chances, he'll reign him in - or try; I doubt Trump would stay quiet. If this is what Romney needs to fire up his base, more power to him.
 
mckmas8808

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
PhoenixDark said:
That's a bad analogy.

If Romney feels Trump is hurting his chances, he'll reign him in - or try; I doubt Trump would stay quiet. If this is what Romney needs to fire up his base, more power to him.
Click to expand...

So if Romney wants to use Trump to fire up his base, shouldn't he have to answer for Trump's birther talk?
 
A

Arrowgigantic

Member
Mutanthands said:
Donald Trump is making a fool of himself live on CNN at the moment. Still pushing the Birther agenda. He actually made Wolf Blitzer sound like a genius in comparison.
Click to expand...
andy-richter-jeopardy.jpg
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
mckmas8808 said:
So if Romney wants to use Trump to fire up his base, shouldn't he have to answer for Trump's birther talk?
Click to expand...


He has - he has said he disagrees with Trump. What do you want him to do? I must say while I do believe Obama was born in the US, the sensitive way people defend it makes me wonder...
 
P

Particle Physicist

between a quark and a baryon
PhoenixDark said:
He has - he has said he disagrees with Trump. What do you want him to do? I must say while I do believe Obama was born in the US, the sensitive way people defend it makes me wonder...
Click to expand...

Make you wonder what exactly?

People being sensitive about blatant xenophobia makes you wonder if Obama was actually born in the US or not?

This Trump stuff is nowhere near as bad as the Ayers, and Reverend Wright crap, I don't see why you are getting all bent over this.
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
There was a poll last year after Trump was "in the running" that asked if one would be more or less likely to vote for a candidate if they were endorsed by Trump. Something like 60% said they'd be less likely to vote for that person if Trump endorsed them.

Him coming back into the spotlight could probably help Obama way more than attacks on Bain could.
 
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