Many on the far right seem confident Obama will lose big time; they seem to be relishing the thought. Imagine if he wins a narrow 2004 type victory. The anger and shock would be palpable and I think we'd truly start seeing some crazy, desperate shit
A big Obama win might be even worse for them. Obama would have dared the GOP into throwing their best punch - from gay marriage to a slow economy - and still crushed them. I can't imagine how they'd respond. It would truly be the defining sign that America has changed and isn't going back to the old, whiter days ever again
Obama could win with 80% of the vote and there'd be a segment of the GOP that would insist the only reason Romney lost is because he wasn't conservative enough for America. Apparently America plays this gambit every four years where they'd rather let a socialist librul democrat win than a moderate Republican, because that way when America is destroyed, the conservative white (I emphasize white) knight can rise from the ashes and make America great again.
That said, I think there's a general complacency with Obama for a significant majority of Americans - I'd say about 60% or so. You can see this in the "Regardless of who you support, who do you think will win in 2012" questions, where Obama outpolls Romney pretty highly. So most everyone thinks Obama will win, and the media has already practically anointed Christie as the GOP nominee in 2016. Somehow though, I don't think the conservative base will be happy with yet another supposed moderate nominee.
In fact I could see conservative outrage reaching such a fever pitch that they'll split off into their own thing while the Republicans scramble to moderate their own platform. If that happens, you better believe the Democratic nominee in 2016 will get a free trip to the White House, but obviously people have made that prediction before and it's amounted to nothing.
Still, all you have to do is look at the two past election cycles, where Olympia Snowe, Lisa Murkowski, Mike Castle, Dick Lugar, among many others were all dumped in favor of tea-flavored alternatives. I'm sure if the movement conservatives split off into their own party, even siphoning 2-3% of the Republican vote would create all sorts of calamity making Clinton, Cuomo or Biden's electoral prospects somewhat easier. (For the record, I think the 2016 ticket will be Biden and Cuomo)