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PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread

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Kevitivity

Member
There's nothing left for the Fed to do, unfortunately. Interest rates are already zero. It has to be fiscal policy from the President + Congress.

I hope to god that a large part of Obama's political platform is a call for more "stimulus" spending. Look how well it's done so far!
 

Jackson50

Member
There is the rub.

Also, we're staring in the face of the real possibility of a recession. Obama hasn't really proven anything.
That is the most harrowing prospect for Obama. If the economy contracts, the electorate will sanction Obama irrespective of the polls blaming Bush. But I don't think a recession is likely. We've experienced spring hiccups the past few years. Yet the economy, although seemingly foundering, chugged along. If it can maintain growth and then accelerate in the late summer as it has the past few years, Obama's probably going to win. Admittedly, the prospect of a eurozone meltdown isn't exactly comforting.
Interesting piece from 538 on a better way to discuss "swing states:"

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/05/21/swing-voters-and-elastic-states/

Note his classifications of Pennsylvania and Arizona.
I think his analysis is interesting, although I wish he had incorporated previous elections. A single election could be aberrant. A few of the states seem slightly incongruous with his analysis given their partisan history. Nevertheless, his point is not without merit. Swing states are not created equal.
 

Diablos

Member
No wonder Barrett wouldn't let Barry come to Wisconsin. Why hitch your wagon to that loser?

Bill-Clinton-Stumps-for-T-008.jpg
I wonder how Bill would have fared against the economic and political realities of today? It's a completely different world.
 
the federal government should be pumping money to the states so they can hire new employees or at least keep existing employees. a large portion of these lost jobs are government workers and nearly all state offices, at least in my state (NJ), are severely understaffed.

it's funny, republicans complain about the unemployment numbers, but they don't acknowledge how many of the unemployed were government workers, and they insist on getting rid of even more government workers.
 

Vahagn

Member
the federal government should be pumping money to the states so they can hire new employees or at least keep existing employees. a large portion of these lost jobs are government workers and nearly all state offices, at least in my state (NJ), are severely understaffed.

it's funny, republicans complain about the unemployment numbers, but they don't acknowledge how many of the unemployed were government workers, and they insist on getting rid of even more government workers.

Republicans do not care about jobs, never have. They care about tax code and government size. Everything else is a side affair...if it happens cool, if not, whatever.
 
Oblivion - Her example is Sweden. In that context, it works.

However, our tax rate is much lower than Sweden's tax rate already. Our social net is also a lot more threadbare than their social net.
 

Atilac

Member
At least Obama is finally talking about deficit reduction.

with the federal government being 10% smaller under Obama then it was under Reagan, and government spending growing at the smallest rate in 50 years. It truly is time for obama to cripple the nations economy to pay off the debts accrued by previous republicans.
 
the federal government should be pumping money to the states so they can hire new employees or at least keep existing employees. a large portion of these lost jobs are government workers and nearly all state offices, at least in my state (NJ), are severely understaffed.

it's funny, republicans complain about the unemployment numbers, but they don't acknowledge how many of the unemployed were government workers, and they insist on getting rid of even more government workers.

If Romney gets elected you best expect an increase in government jobs on a local level.
 
Among the issues he said might benefit from an increased willingness to negotiate: deficit reduction, infrastructure improvements, and immigration reform.

Ha.To me, this is like saying the issue of assigning names to numbers higher than a trillion is an important issue that the American public needs addressed. The existence and size of an annual deficit is totally meaningless in isolation. Deficit reduction for its own sake is just stupid, and affirmatively harmful. Now, if Obama had said inflation reduction (and there actually were inflation), that would be a substantive issue to solve.
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Guys, PD's comment about increased gubment workers under Romney is the least objectionable thing he's said so far. Both Dubya and Ray-gun had massive increases in public sector employees.

Stay up? Don't you mean wake up?

Nope, stay up is what I meant (I've been going to sleep at around 6 A.M. for the past couple months :/)
 

Jackson50

Member
the federal government should be pumping money to the states so they can hire new employees or at least keep existing employees. a large portion of these lost jobs are government workers and nearly all state offices, at least in my state (NJ), are severely understaffed.

it's funny, republicans complain about the unemployment numbers, but they don't acknowledge how many of the unemployed were government workers, and they insist on getting rid of even more government workers.
Right. State and local public sector employment has fettered growth for months. The support provided by the ARRA was woefully inadequate.
 
I'm not PhoenixDark (I don't think he ever expects a Democrat to win) but let's be real here. If things get even slightly worse than they are now Republicans will cruise to victory. Republicans have a natural advantage in today's America, the only successful Democrat in the last 30 years was Clinton and he was a Southern moderate.
 
I'm not PhoenixDark (I don't think he ever expects a Democrat to win) but let's be real here. If things get even slightly worse than they are now Republicans will cruise to victory. Republicans have a natural advantage in today's America, the only successful Democrat in the last 30 years was Clinton and he was a Southern moderate.

No.
 
Ouch... :(

I'm not sure what to think about the latest jobs numbers (and revisions down to the previous months). I'm an Obama supporter. If it's a choice between Romney and Obama, I'll take Obama every time. At least with Obama, I know he's not going to start any crazy foreign wars and while things domestically may not get substantially better at least I know the economy won't tank to the 7th level of hell like it did in '08. Obama and his admin are pragmatist, not ideologues.


That said, I've lost confidence that Obama can lead a divided government. Republicans have been out for blood since '09 and with only a few exceptions, their obstruction has pretty much immobilized Obama's entire domestic policy. I think part of the reason Obama's foreign policy has been a relative success is because it's an area that Republicans have been very hesitant to put any real road blocks. But domestically Republicans have pretty much castrated Obama. And what I wonder is does Obama have any plans to be effective in a second term with a divided government. From what I see, he doesn't.

Obama should also be out there encouraging people to vote Democrats back in office, so he can actually get some of his agenda items passed. Otherwise his second term will be mostly ineffective in the moving the ball forward.
 

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Obama should also be out there encouraging people to vote Democrats back in office, so he can actually get some of his agenda items passed. Otherwise his second term will be mostly ineffective in the moving the ball forward.

But at least he can stop things from getting worse with more austerity and more useless tax cuts resulting in bigger and unneeded deficits.
 
Why would he have to? They only care about those things when they're out of power. Similarly, he can completely ignore the deficit if he's elected.

Yep, in some ways Romney's election would probably cause the economy to improve because Republicans will allow him to spend money. Although I won't vote for Romney for that reason, because I don't think Republicans should be rewarded for economic terrorism.
 
Why would he have to? They only care about those things when they're out of power. Similarly, he can completely ignore the deficit if he's elected.

Exactly. Tax cuts, increase in defense spending, more escalation in Afghanistan=huge deficits. And he'll get away with it because none of that is against far right principles.
 

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Bill Clinton on Bain Capital: Another Cory Booker Moment?
By Erik Hayden | @Erik_Hayden | June 1, 2012




bill-clinton-cnn.jpg





It only takes a few words, even out-of-context ones, for a well-disciplined campaign message to disintegrate. Just ask Newark Mayor Cory Booker. And now, it’s Bill Clinton’s turn. Last night, the ex-president may have just stuck “another fork” — as the Washington Post‘s Aaron Blake put it — in the Obama campaign’s carefully-honed attack against Mitt Romney’s experience at Bain Capital.

It may not matter that–sitting with guest host Harvey Weinstein on Piers Morgan Tonight–Clinton said that he believed Obama would win reelection “by 5 or 6 points” and argued that the president’s ideas “will be far better for the American economy” than those of the GOP nominee. Weeks ago on Meet the Press, Booker also praised the president, just before going off-message by calling his reelection campaign ads against Bain “nauseating.”

Clinton found himself in similar circumstances. “I think he had a good business career,” he said of Romney, when queried about Bain. He also called Mitt’s record “sterling”, adding “So I don’t think that we ought to get into the position where we say this is bad work. This is good work.” Since it isn’t likely that the ex-president will film a “hostage-style” apology video, as critics of Cory Booker’s subsequent YouTube clip deemed it, it’s fair to wonder about the extent the Obama campaign will be attacking Bain from now on — especially after U.S. stocks suffered their worst drop of the year Friday following weak economic data.

Mitt Romney, for one, was happy to welcome Clinton’s’ thoughts. “I think Bain Capital has a good and solid record. I was happy to see President Clinton made a similar statement … and called my record superb,” he said on Friday, according to Politico.

The Obama ads painted Mitt Romney, in the words once used by also-ran GOP candidate Rick Perry, as a pure “vulture capitalist.” One spot prominently featured a laid-off factory worker who said that Bain was “like a vampire.” At the time, Obama campaign officials had stressed that they were not going after the entire private equity industry. But, as many reporters have noted, it’s difficult to separate Bain’s actions from everyone else’s.

Steven Rattner, the former adviser known as Obama’s car czar, summed up the problem with the anti-Bain strategy when he spoke on MSNBC’s Morning Joe a few weeks ago. “Look, Mitt Romney made a mistake ever talking about the fact that he created 100,000 jobs,” Rattner said. But he also added: “I do think to pick out an example of somebody who lost their job, unfortunately, this is part of capitalism, this is part of life. And I don’t think there’s anything Bain Capital did that they need to be embarrassed about.”


##################


With surrogates like this who needs the GOP fighting against Obama? Jesus Christ!
 
Money talks.

Just further proof that while Wall-street completely owns the Republican, they also have a pretty large equity in the Democratic party as well.
 

Qazaq

Banned
Can I just ask something.

Is this thread really better off in this forum? I always forget to come to this forum and I feel like there used to be so many great discussions in this thread, and now it's stifled because it's not in the main forum.

I recognize that the admins on this board almost rarely ever reverse themselves on pretty much anything, anyhow. But I was just wondering what peoples' opinions about it were.
 
Can I just ask something.

Is this thread really better off in this forum? I always forget to come to this forum and I feel like there used to be so many great discussions in this thread, and now it's stifled because it's not in the main forum.

I recognize that the admins on this board almost rarely ever reverse themselves on pretty much anything, anyhow. But I was just wondering what peoples' opinions about it were.

Just use USER CP.
 

kehs

Banned
Can I just ask something.

Is this thread really better off in this forum? I always forget to come to this forum and I feel like there used to be so many great discussions in this thread, and now it's stifled because it's not in the main forum.

I recognize that the admins on this board almost rarely ever reverse themselves on pretty much anything, anyhow. But I was just wondering what peoples' opinions about it were.

OT Community sucks, everything in here should be back in OT, except the sports guys, they should be moved into gaming community.
 

Drek

Member
With surrogates like this who needs the GOP fighting against Obama? Jesus Christ!

As an independent who strongly supports Obama I just don't get how people completely whitewash Clinton's presidency.

The current recession is largely built on bad housing bills that allowed low income variable rate mortgages to be pushed left and right, and the repeal of Glass-Stegall which let the banks and investment firms officially become one and start gambling on anything, specifically these new mortgages.

Who signed all of that into law? Bill Clinton.

The dude sold this country out long term to make his eight years look good, after George H.W. Bush fell on the sword in his one term to put economic rebound on the tee for his successor.

Lit the fuse as he walked out the door and now Obama needs to pick it all up.
 

codhand

Member
In that same interview Clinton talks about playing golf with Trump, wasn't this the guy who was supposed to be a master of connecting with people?
 

Mike M

Nick N
Stimulus spending actually harms the economy. This is pretty well known. Econ 101, as Kevitivity might say.

Let's take a look at the inputs to GDP.

GDP = C + I + G + X - M

Or, in plainer terms, GDP is equal to total Cuts in government services for the period, plus top percentile Income, plus Government paydown of debt, plus taX cuts, minus total Mouths on the government teat, i.e. welfare recipients.

You can see that stimulus spending affects several of these inputs. It decreases C because it raises rather than cuts government services, that's a negative. It has little to no effect on top percentile income. It decreases G by causing a rise in government debt rather than a paydown, another negative. And it increases M, the number of people on welfare, a third negative since that's subtracted. It can potentially increase X if it's in the form of a tax cut.

You can see that the only acceptable form of stimulus is a tax cut on the highest earners combined with a cut on government spending, as that increases C, I, and X. Though it also decreases G, which is why a tax cut stimulus isn't always effective.

And thus we see that Obamacare's "stimulus" richly deserves the scare quotes: it actively harms GDP, and all it really stimulates is popular sentiment against deserving job creators, by promoting class warfare.

Plus most of the "stimulus" went to Solyndra.

Between this and your post on the Lion King in the confession thread, you are on fucking fire today.

Teach me your secrets.
 

The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
I just listened to his speech that he gave in Minnesotsa today. It was surprisingly good, and I say that as an Obama supporter. It seemed to address a lot of standard issues that conservatives care about, and I'd like to hope that maybe it would change a few minds.

Unfortunately probably just a few though...
 
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