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PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread
- Thread starter AlteredBeast
- Start date
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cartoon_soldier
Member
So, non seasonally adjusted report is +800k?
Al-ibn Kermit
Junior Member
I think it's better here, it's easier to find the thread than when it was in the normal OT section. There's still several pages of discussion a day so I don't think it slowed down or anything.
Aaron Strife
Banned
This week in bad timing:
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
Watch it end up costing him the election and then it turn out to be some Ted Stevens nonsense.
This week in bad timing:
lol, here I thought they would start with anonymous sources weeks ago.
makingmusic476
Member
Roughly the highest numbers in a decade? This sounds like great news.
Edit:
Honestly, if this is true and we'll see numbers get adjusted, it has such drastically different implications than the earlier numbers. I my mind, it swings from 50:50 shot Romney takes this to Obama has this on lock.
Aaron Strife
Banned
The unemployment rate is calculated by a different measure, the household survey, which showed an increase of over 400,000 jobs - which was canceled out by the fact that 600,000 new people entered the work force.
If that's the reason why the UE rate ticked up, you could take that as good news, I suppose. Perhaps the numbers would even out next month.
I feel there's a kind of psychological barrier between 8% unemployment and 7.9% unemployment.
Dr. Pangloss
Member
I don't know where you guys are getting that Romney is going to turn to austerity immediately. He has already promised to cut taxes lower than President Bush. Hey Kevitivity, how does it feel to know you are going to vote for a guy that is going to "stimulate" our economy on the supply side? And guess what, he won't even pay for it. This is why everyone laughs at you. Do you know that the Ryan plan won't balance your precious budget till 2040, lol? This is what is going to get passed when you elect Romney. The deficit won't be solved. Who are you going to beat with that stick in 4 years?
Also, I have to say you guys are cutting and running at the first sign of trouble. Everyone knew this was going to be close. Early summer has always sucked for job numbers. Romney is going to fold like the lawn chair he is at the debates anyway. If McCain can get 47% of the vote, then so can Obama and no way Romney can match his ground game.
Also, I have to say you guys are cutting and running at the first sign of trouble. Everyone knew this was going to be close. Early summer has always sucked for job numbers. Romney is going to fold like the lawn chair he is at the debates anyway. If McCain can get 47% of the vote, then so can Obama and no way Romney can match his ground game.
makingmusic476
Member
I was focusing more on the total number of jobs added than the UE rate. How do they get 69k from these other figures?
Edit:
From the BLS website it seems they're trying to determine the number of jobs added on top of what would be expected from typical seasonal growth?
I don't want to go all conspiracy, but something doesn't add up in this month's report. Literally all of the data feeding into this - ISM, UI claims, ADP, job openings, the works - pointed to 2x-3x the number. The estimates from Bloomberg's survey of economists ranged from 95,000 to 206,000 for the month. I can't recall a BLS survey undercutting literally everyone before.
I have no idea what's going with the numbers, but the BLS figures are totally disconnected from the data that historically has aligned with it. Not saying they're wrong. Just that I do not understand why they are what they are, when every other signal goes the other way.
I've been in love with Cyan ever since he taught me how to pronounce "gullible."
Aaron Strife
Banned
I still think Obama will win, though I'm parring back my hopes a bit. Obama could probably win by about 2-3 points and still have a comfortable margin in the EC. Barring something catastrophic it won't be more than 5 points either way, probably.
I guess I'm more concerned about the Senate at this point, but if Democrats hold all of the blue state seats (including WI and VA) it should be fine. The House might be out of reach at this point but we'll see. I have to imagine the presidential race would track pretty closely to the generic congressional ballot - CNN had Obama and Democrats both leading (Romney and Republicans, respectively) 49-46.
JUNE SURPRISEThis week in bad timing:
mwahahaha.
Music to my fucking ears. Eat shit, Walker.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Eh, unless he gets charged on Monday I don't see this mattering
Wow, thanks for nothing Bill.Bill Clinton on Bain Capital: Another Cory Booker Moment?
By Erik Hayden | @Erik_Hayden | June 1, 2012
It only takes a few words, even out-of-context ones, for a well-disciplined campaign message to disintegrate. Just ask Newark Mayor Cory Booker. And now, it’s Bill Clinton’s turn. Last night, the ex-president may have just stuck “another fork” — as the Washington Post‘s Aaron Blake put it — in the Obama campaign’s carefully-honed attack against Mitt Romney’s experience at Bain Capital.
It may not matter that–sitting with guest host Harvey Weinstein on Piers Morgan Tonight–Clinton said that he believed Obama would win reelection “by 5 or 6 points” and argued that the president’s ideas “will be far better for the American economy” than those of the GOP nominee. Weeks ago on Meet the Press, Booker also praised the president, just before going off-message by calling his reelection campaign ads against Bain “nauseating.”
Clinton found himself in similar circumstances. “I think he had a good business career,” he said of Romney, when queried about Bain. He also called Mitt’s record “sterling”, adding “So I don’t think that we ought to get into the position where we say this is bad work. This is good work.” Since it isn’t likely that the ex-president will film a “hostage-style” apology video, as critics of Cory Booker’s subsequent YouTube clip deemed it, it’s fair to wonder about the extent the Obama campaign will be attacking Bain from now on — especially after U.S. stocks suffered their worst drop of the year Friday following weak economic data.
Mitt Romney, for one, was happy to welcome Clinton’s’ thoughts. “I think Bain Capital has a good and solid record. I was happy to see President Clinton made a similar statement … and called my record superb,” he said on Friday, according to Politico.
The Obama ads painted Mitt Romney, in the words once used by also-ran GOP candidate Rick Perry, as a pure “vulture capitalist.” One spot prominently featured a laid-off factory worker who said that Bain was “like a vampire.” At the time, Obama campaign officials had stressed that they were not going after the entire private equity industry. But, as many reporters have noted, it’s difficult to separate Bain’s actions from everyone else’s.
Steven Rattner, the former adviser known as Obama’s car czar, summed up the problem with the anti-Bain strategy when he spoke on MSNBC’s Morning Joe a few weeks ago. “Look, Mitt Romney made a mistake ever talking about the fact that he created 100,000 jobs,” Rattner said. But he also added: “I do think to pick out an example of somebody who lost their job, unfortunately, this is part of capitalism, this is part of life. And I don’t think there’s anything Bain Capital did that they need to be embarrassed about.”
##################
With surrogates like this who needs the GOP fighting against Obama? Jesus Christ!
Romney + Bain = nightmare for the common folk. Respect for Clinton -1.
His smooth talking southern shit wouldn't have done a damn thing for him if he were the President of the US today.
In some ways I kind of blame Clinton for at least part of the reason why the GOP is so far right. Think about it. He practically embraced all of their policies and left them with no ground to stand on, so of course they'd have to shift even more to the right to remain politically viable. The "third way" looks great in the short term, but look at what we have today: a complete clusterfuck.
ErasureAcer
Banned
I hope my state, Minnesota, can flip a couple house seats.
In MN-08 Rick Nolan was endorsed over 2010 loser to Bachmann in MN-06 Taryl Clark who will still run in the primary. I think Nolan is the stronger pick since he represented the district in the past. Dude seems like a serious progressive too. Chip Cravaack, the Republican representative I don't think stands a chance given the tradition of the Iron Range but then I thought the same in 2010 I'm sure.
Next best pick-up is MN-02 where redistricting has made this a toss up as Obama got 50% in the new boundaries I read somewhere. Mike Obermueller plans to bring back the Ober to Minnesota representation after Jim Oberstar lost to Cravaack in 2010. His opponent is the Republican representative John Kline who is slime.
I'd place Batshit Crazy as the next most likely to flip in MN-06. She has a lot of money but redistricting went against her as well. And if no 3rd party pulls 8-10% as some dipwad did for like all her wins this could be tight. Jim Graves is her opponent. He's rich after launching successful hospitality enterprises and seems to have a pretty focused message.
That would leave Erik Paulsen in MN-03 as the safest Republican. Having briefly lived in this district I can attest that the people there are out for themselves, out of touch and lacking any sense of decency. Brian Barnes is the challenger. His website seems timid in his stances. I'd be shocked if this one flips.
So 2 seats seem possible for the Dems to pick up. I think Bachmann will have her hardest fight yet. But if she falls maybe Paulsen will too. The Republican Senate candidate is a Ron Paul supporter who will not win nor does Romney appeal to the masses here so maybe Republican turnout will be down.
In MN-08 Rick Nolan was endorsed over 2010 loser to Bachmann in MN-06 Taryl Clark who will still run in the primary. I think Nolan is the stronger pick since he represented the district in the past. Dude seems like a serious progressive too. Chip Cravaack, the Republican representative I don't think stands a chance given the tradition of the Iron Range but then I thought the same in 2010 I'm sure.
Next best pick-up is MN-02 where redistricting has made this a toss up as Obama got 50% in the new boundaries I read somewhere. Mike Obermueller plans to bring back the Ober to Minnesota representation after Jim Oberstar lost to Cravaack in 2010. His opponent is the Republican representative John Kline who is slime.
I'd place Batshit Crazy as the next most likely to flip in MN-06. She has a lot of money but redistricting went against her as well. And if no 3rd party pulls 8-10% as some dipwad did for like all her wins this could be tight. Jim Graves is her opponent. He's rich after launching successful hospitality enterprises and seems to have a pretty focused message.
That would leave Erik Paulsen in MN-03 as the safest Republican. Having briefly lived in this district I can attest that the people there are out for themselves, out of touch and lacking any sense of decency. Brian Barnes is the challenger. His website seems timid in his stances. I'd be shocked if this one flips.
So 2 seats seem possible for the Dems to pick up. I think Bachmann will have her hardest fight yet. But if she falls maybe Paulsen will too. The Republican Senate candidate is a Ron Paul supporter who will not win nor does Romney appeal to the masses here so maybe Republican turnout will be down.
Clinton hates Obama. He will do nothing to support him this year.
Someone show me Romney's path to 270, please? Clinton looks anorexic, private equity whore he is now, been eating greenbacks instead of burgers, thinking he's a sage, and not some former scoundrel.
Me too, I was born in Bachmann's district, a point that shames me each waking day.
Me too, I was born in Bachmann's district, a point that shames me each waking day.
Why is that?
Until an actual news agency picks it up, Id hold off on the celebration. That fishing expedition has been going on the over two years, it'd be pretty convenient to charge him now, no?
It's possible to not want the corrupt and/or broken unions without agreeing with Wal Mart. Sorry.
The ones that actually care about the workers and do more than just collect dues are few and far between these days. Especially bullshit like certain unions trying to get rid of the secret ballot and forcing them in with carding only.
Workers need to demand organizations that will actually stand up for worker's rights everywhere, all the time, and not just optimizing dues money payouts.
Arrowgigantic
Member
Because they believe the propaganda that unions exist only to protect bad workers, for some reason.
This certain class of people who are obsessed with the idea that someone is getting a free ride and that unions exist solely to make those free rides happen obtain this mindset via projection. They are the ones who are lazy and are looking for a free ride and they think that's how everyone is. They realize that "there oughta be a law" and disregard how it would affect honest and hard-working people.
Unions also commit the crime of bankrupting companies with their outrageous wage and benefit demands of a decent middle-class life and actually being able to save money.
I agree with your post 100%. But does Scott Walker simply "not want corrupt or broken unions"? Do the Koch brothers who Walker likes to answer his cell phone for simply "not want corrupt or broken unions"? Of course not, they want the death of them, plain and simple. This isn't about fixing something, it's about a libertarian ideology executing on its most cruel intents.
Well, of course those guys don't want them at all, it saves them money in the short term. All it really boils down to for those guys is "we republicans, dems like unions, so we don't like unions, harpadarp". Instead of fixing them in a way that benefits both sides (like say, capping work hours or overtime hours so the employer isn't paying twice what they should for the same labor and the workers aren't zombies by the time they get home), they just try to nuke them.
The Librarian
Banned
Unions help correct the free market. Like Mittens said.
That is hilarious. Lol
I love that you talk in specifics though on how to fix unions, which at this point, I mean, they basically are dead, our generation will witness it happen. I work with a lot of union construction workers, and I know what most of them make, it's nothing to be upset or thrilled about. The benefits are what's nice.
Frank the Great
Banned
the constitution only binds government entities. no rights are being violated when a private employer fires his employees for being in a union. i don't think libertarians are necessarily saying that laws should be passed banning all unions, but only that the laws protecting unions should be repealed and employers should be allowed to fire employees for any reason.
it is an insipid, ideological, impractical, and ahistorical approach, but it is a logical, coherent, and internally consistent idea.
their opposition to public sector unions is just to save money and be ideological. i wonder if there is any case law on whether the government is infringing on the freedom to associate when it passes laws forbidding its employees from organizing. i gotta take a class on labor law before i graduate.
it is an insipid, ideological, impractical, and ahistorical approach, but it is a logical, coherent, and internally consistent idea.
their opposition to public sector unions is just to save money and be ideological. i wonder if there is any case law on whether the government is infringing on the freedom to associate when it passes laws forbidding its employees from organizing. i gotta take a class on labor law before i graduate.
cartoon_soldier
Member
That is what is important though. Employer based insurance is already going down every year and unfortunately in the current US system that is awful.
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
The rhetoric I'm hearing at work these days is "with OSHA protections in place unions are now causing more harm then good, since they aren't needed for their original purposes"
Arrowgigantic
Member
Small correction: "No Unions" is not the libertarian philosophy, it's just the inevitable end result of the actual philosophy "Free Market Unions". They want no government involvement with unions. That means no laws against any union busting tactic capital can get away with, and that would be the end of unions.
Sort of the same thing with discrimination. Libertarians don't discriminate because that's not "liberty"-- except for their version of liberty also completely allows for it and thus lets it flourish as much as "the market will allow", which they claim it won't anywhere, but it obviously will to an outrageous degree.
Sort of the same thing with discrimination. Libertarians don't discriminate because that's not "liberty"-- except for their version of liberty also completely allows for it and thus lets it flourish as much as "the market will allow", which they claim it won't anywhere, but it obviously will to an outrageous degree.
empty vessel
Member
I think it's more than just ideological. It's class warfare. Reducing the bargaining power of public sector employees also reduces the bargaining power of private sector employees. Reduced worker bargaining power always translates to a greater share of a business's revenue for management and investors. Republicans' and Libertarian's aims almost invariably reduce to attacks on employee bargaining power. That is where the class war is waged.
You know I sometimes think there are some slight flaws in the (otherwise logically and morally watertight) Libertarian philosophy.
I agree with this post, but, two points, one is that the "reason" you mention for firing someone ends up being to save money, like laying off teachers, custodians, police, firefighters, and other social services, not because they showed up late, or were insubordinate.
And as for passing a law that forbids unions, why? The intimidation and other shady practices used by most major companies are enough to prevent most unions from ever forming, so a law at this point--much like with Walker's actions--is just a redundant beating of an already dead horse.
We've all met people who loathe any mention of a union, and will never be convinced that a union could ever benefit anyone; 55% of Wisconsin stand with Walker it would seem, the greatest trick the devil ever pulled.
I'm not sure what the fuss is about what Clinton said. Obama said the same in his NATO speech back in may. I haven't watch Cliinton's whole statement, so maybe he didn't qualify the statement the way Obama did.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=KKvdW9NMXIc#t=776s
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=KKvdW9NMXIc#t=776s
Leeroy3101
Banned
Unions are good for the education of American children. Unions are one of the few groups who have fought to have class sizes remain at thirty or less children. Then again, a lot of educators in the south have no unionization rights 
Sure, there's the argument which says they just want more teachers but research backs up lower class sizes. Barely any studies, like the one Mitt likes to cite, support the notion that class size does not matter.
Sure, there's the argument which says they just want more teachers but research backs up lower class sizes. Barely any studies, like the one Mitt likes to cite, support the notion that class size does not matter.
Democrats need to begin an intelligent strategy of painting Republicans as engaging in class warfare. It needs to be well thought out and delivered because these "Bain Attacks" for example, are backfiring.
We inherently believe in excessive greed at the top, and that Republicans watch out for that class of people more than any other, but democratic politicians haven't been able to message the idea effectively. Obama has done a decent job around the edges because the public approves tax increases on the rich...which is a big deal and a shift in thinking at goes along with occupy/99% messages.
We inherently believe in excessive greed at the top, and that Republicans watch out for that class of people more than any other, but democratic politicians haven't been able to message the idea effectively. Obama has done a decent job around the edges because the public approves tax increases on the rich...which is a big deal and a shift in thinking at goes along with occupy/99% messages.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Man guys, this Native American scandal is really going to drag down Elizabeth Warren. Wait, new polls?
Boston Globe: Brown 39 Warren 37
Masslive/WNEU: Warren 45 Brown 43
It's still a tossup you say? Well, I guess we'll just have to wait for Rasmussen.
Boston Globe: Brown 39 Warren 37
Masslive/WNEU: Warren 45 Brown 43
It's still a tossup you say? Well, I guess we'll just have to wait for Rasmussen.
cartoon_soldier
Member
My question again on same note, how frequently can Reid bring up the same bill for debate vote in the Senate?
A smarter person would evaluate the changes in her negatives.
The author of the article really, really wants you to ignore that though.
SouthernDragon
Member
The Bain attack ads are only backfiring amongst those that profit and benefit from them, or have friends who work in similar companies.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Bain ads won't backfire, the question is whether they have been effective.
RustyNails
Member
Why are idiots blaming Clinton for what he said? I saw the whole thing, and what he said was precisely true. He said Romney had a sterling record at Bain, which is completely true. He became a multi-millionaire at Bain and made truckloads of money for himself and his buddies. Yeah, he shafted the little guys and sharked businesses but he made tons of profit for his company. He may have the moral fiber of an apricot, but that is definition of a good businessman. The perfect CEO for his shareholders. Don't chew on Clinton for this.
makingmusic476
Member
I was forced to listen to Walton and Johnson (sp?) at work the other day, and they started a tirade about how much more competitive China is in terms of labor, and it's all because they don't have those pesky unions.
I was shaking my head in disbelief.
empty vessel
Member
This is why businessmen make terrible office holders. Adam Smith thought so too.
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