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PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread
- Thread starter AlteredBeast
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NihonTiger90
Member
The question I have is, how is that 68 percent divided up? In theory, you could have folks in that percentage that:
- Want only the mandate repealed but want to keep everything else that they like about it
- Want the whole thing repealed and a return to the previous status quo
- Want the whole thing repealed because they want something like a government-run single-payer system and they think they can somehow get it
nope. just rnc and romney money.
Particle Physicist
between a quark and a baryon
Fully Overturned = 41%
Overturn Mandate = 27%
Keep entire law = 24%
Don't know/no answer = 8%
Another possible headline is "Majority of people polled DO NOT want the entire law repealed"
Particle Physicist
between a quark and a baryon
Yeah, that is really bad. Not just for Obama, but any Democrat running. They are going to get massacred by all the money flowing in.
Isn't that how Dems got to super majorities in 2008?
Particle Physicist
between a quark and a baryon
Republicans are getting most of these donations from many small donors? News to me.The money Obama and the Democrats had in 2008 represented more individuals than the money Romney and the Republicans are getting during this campaign season. There is a big difference there.
Maybe you should go back to freaking out over lysol wipe?
PhoenixDark
Banned
This is beyond grasping at straws
Romney out raised Obama? Looks like we're seeing the beginning if the end. It's worth noting that Obama is probably the best money raising democrat in history, yet won't be able to top a republican no one likes allegedly. That's not a knock on Obama but a sign of things to come thanks to Citizens United
The average Obama donation was below $200.
Remember when Republicans at the time were trying to get the names of those donors in 08?
Black Republican
Member
i think its unfair for people to call romney a weak gop candidate if he continues to outraise obama
He is a weak GOP candidate, but he is a GOP candidate so the PAC money flows like wine solely due to the "R" next to his name.
edit... I see its not PAC money? Well... that sucks for Obama
Dude Abides
Banned
Obama's best hope is that candidates have a ceiling that no amount of spending can raise. Obama flooded PA with ads in the 2008 primary but Hillary still broke him in half on election day.
Flying_Phoenix
Banned
Then they are idiots. They're like those 19th century Democrats who were against Capitalism. They should just go away.
Dr. Pangloss
Member
Kosmo again trying to rewrite history. Sorry that Republicans got out spent in 2008. Sorry McCain suspended his campaign for the financial crisis. Sorry that he chose Palin as his running mate. Sorry that Bush put the GOP brand so far into the shitter that the public would have elected anyone. What other handicaps should Obama have assigned himself in 2008 to make it more of a fair fight?
PhoenixDark
Banned
I might have to change my position. Looks like the Romney haul is due to him maxing out donors now that he's the official nominee. That's not to trivialize the haul, but i don't think he can match that again. CNN just said donations under $250 totaled $12m btw
cartoon_soldier
Member
Even then, it should be a wake up call to Dem Donors. Romney + RNC alone can match Obama on the air. GOP SuperPACs are steamrolling Dems.
It also helps with the joint fundraising, Romney has more wealthy donors than Obama, so they are maxing out the 30k they can give to RNC.
And whoever said the Gay Marriage thing was for political donations, well, it didn't help.
well then, we would have to see next month. Obama needs to largely outraise Romney to even put a dent in the PAC money.
I want to see billions of dollars spent on both sides. I want 4 out of 5 commercials being political commercials, PAC ads and shitty ass attack ads. I want TV segments shown sponsored by PACs. I basically want political Armageddon on TV and radio. The only way to anger sloth Americans would be by interrupting their favorite activity... I want this election to be a shitstorm of ads.
I think at some point, campaign funds produce diminishing returns. There is only so many states in play and there is only so much time to advertise (effectively).
Having 100 million is way more effective than having 33 million. But does 300 million produce the same kind of effect? I doubt it.
Having 100 million is way more effective than having 33 million. But does 300 million produce the same kind of effect? I doubt it.
Particle Physicist
between a quark and a baryon
Same, nothing but back to back ads and long commercial breaks.
I have a feeling that's what you're gonna get, but I fear that the ads will be lopsided in favor of the one who has the most money to spend.
PhoenixDark
Banned
To be fair Obama saw a 50% increase in donations over April, so yes it did help a lot.
I agree, and media oversaturation can creat its own kind of backlash.
In 2008 Obama raised so much they literally didn't know what to do with it in the closing months of the campaign, and settled on that half hour TV informercial. More of the funds will be spent responding to the Super PAC media this time around, but I do think that once the noise machine is going full tilt, it gets harder to notice each time the volume goes up a notch.
Turn up your sarcasm detector.
We have DVRs now.
Of course there were no fraudulent donations:
PhoenixDark
Banned
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entries/poll-obama-romney-in-dead-heat-in-michigan
I'm...not buying this. Thoughts, Kosmo?
yeah, that poll is bullshit. although it fits nicely into the current narrative that romney is surging.
Scale of 1 to 10 with 5 being a toss up and 10 being an absolute Obama victory, I'd put it at a 6. Not currently a toss-up, but certainly not a State Obama will be able to totally ignore.
Obama certainly has some cred with the GM UAW and will get 95% of the Detroit vote, but after a lot of the initial uproar when Snyder came into the governorship, few would argue that Snyder hasn't done a very good job and governs how you would want someone to govern - remain relentlessly positive and not get bogged down in bullshit he knows that just fuels ideological fires (like making Michigan a Right to Work state, which I think Snyder believes in, but he knows it's a boondoggle that will distract from so many other things that he won't bother with it).
Contrast that with former governor Granholm, who is a lock-step Obama ideologue and was an absolutely horrendous governor, and I see independents swinging hard for Romney, who most probably view in the same light as Snyder.
Dr. Pangloss
Member
It's sometimes hard to tell with you. You don't always contribute in a meaningful way. Should I, like others, just assume from now on that all your posts are dribble to provoke a response? Wait, I already do that. My responses to you are not just for your benefit, but for anyone else that might be persuaded by your argument.
Also this seems relevant to the discussion we were having the other day:
i dont care who outspends who as long as its aggressive and overbearing.
There's an ad on Hulu Plus about a mom and her grown up kids moving back in and playing basketball all day because they can't find jobs every single time there's a break. Yay PAC money?
Obama at 45/48 on today's Gallup. smh.
*sigh*
Also, as for Dem donors needing to "wake up" -- they can't just pull money out of their ass to top the $1b Romney is expected to gain from SuperPACs. Like PD said, this is the grim reality of Citizens United. Anonymous uberconservative donors having their way with the election process, anonymously, with no limit. It's a wet dream for the right.
We're all fucked. Maybe we should just go on blackout and then when Romney wins it won't be as hard to deal with.
Obama at 45/48 on today's Gallup. smh.
*sigh*
Bullshit.
Also, as for Dem donors needing to "wake up" -- they can't just pull money out of their ass to top the $1b Romney is expected to gain from SuperPACs. Like PD said, this is the grim reality of Citizens United. Anonymous uberconservative donors having their way with the election process, anonymously, with no limit. It's a wet dream for the right.
We're all fucked. Maybe we should just go on blackout and then when Romney wins it won't be as hard to deal with.
Surely you jest - or at least you're being disingenuous. Are you saying there aren't a similar number of super rich supporters on the Dem side as on the Republican side? As for their willingness to part with their own money, that's another question.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Why should they bet on a loser. Many would benefit from a Romney presidency.
On Michigan again, I don't think Obama's support of gay marriage should be discounted. The western part of the state (outside of Saugatuck, which is like the San Francisco of Michigan) are mostly Baptist and pretty fundamentalist Christian - that is not going to go over well in those communities. Couple that with not knowing what kind of effect it will have in the black community, and things could get tight. Obama did shore up some union support (how much over what he got in 2008, I'm not sure), but there are a lot of other things that could chip away at his lead. I wouldn't be surprised at the state going 52/48 either way.
Black Republican
Member
looking on the right hand side projections, only one i disagree with is obama winning nevada
good analysis though
read andrew gelman some time.
Probably in the same place where the "SCOTUS will uphold Obamacare because Roberts cares about his legacy" Dems went after the hearing.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Obama's the favorite pending circumstances.
Not really anything new.
Obama's up 54-39 in Minnesota, according to PPP. My prediction is that Republicans will still call it a swing state because they're idiots.
PhoenixDark
Banned
On Michigan again, I don't think Obama's support of gay marriage should be discounted. The western part of the state (outside of Saugatuck, which is like the San Francisco of Michigan) are mostly Baptist and pretty fundamentalist Christian - that is not going to go over well in those communities. Couple that with not knowing what kind of effect it will have in the black community, and things could get tight. Obama did shore up some union support (how much over what he got in 2008, I'm not sure), but there are a lot of other things that could chip away at his lead. I wouldn't be surprised at the state going 52/48 either way.
I don't think the black community reaction is unknown at this point. We've seen gay marriage support spike among blacks since Obama's announcement.
I would argue Obama had little chance in the more rural areas of the state anyway. I tend to believe overall Oakland and Washtenaw county will swing this to Obama.
BUT I won't count Romney out. At the same time, if Romney wins Michigan that would likely be a result of a Romney landslide
Edit: 600 LV sample size. Yea...
Black Republican
Member
housing market and high unemployment nearer nov i think he will lose the indie vote
Aaron Strife
Banned
Plus polls in Nevada undercount Hispanics, generally. It was the one state in 2010 where Dem internals painted a much rosier picture than public polls, and the internals were right.
Dems have a lot of skin in Nevada (not just for Obama but also because it's one of the handful of opportunities Democrats have to gain a Senate seat) so I expect the OFA/Reid machine to be in full force there.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Nevada GOP is also badly organized. Romney campaign is running its own GOTV operation in Nevada bypassing the state party.
That plays to Obama's advantage in that state.
That plays to Obama's advantage in that state.
Particle Physicist
between a quark and a baryon
Where does that comment get their information from?
Hasn't PPP been decently accurate with polling?
cartoon_soldier
Member
Did you check the info?
2008 Exits for Minn:
40% Democrat 94% 6% +3
36 Republican 8 91 +5
25 Independent or something else
PPP Poll:
Democrat
35%
........................................................
Republican 31%
......................................................
34%
2008 Gender:
47% Male
53% Female
PPP is split 50/50
Oh wait, they are actually under sampling compared to 2008...or actually they are accurately sampling based on the last few years.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MI_529.pdf
The fact that they asked the question "Are the trees the right height in Michigan" pretty much tells me this is a hack organization.
Black Republican
Member
38647901
NC dems though i think will cost its state for obama
yeah i forgot about that
NC dems though i think will cost its state for obama
Particle Physicist
between a quark and a baryon
The fact that they seem to be more accurate than most of the other pollsters out there tells me you can suck a big one. Like a lollipop.
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