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PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread
- Thread starter AlteredBeast
- Start date
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cartoon_soldier
Member
Oh, you meant MI. Let's check that.
2008 Exits:
46% Male
54% Female
41% Democrat
29 Republican
29 Independent or something else
PPP:
Woman 56%
...........................................................
Man 44%
Democrat
38%
........................................................
Republican 28%
......................................................
Other 34%
PPP also has the population as older than 2008 Exits.
Try Again?
Aaron Strife
Banned
Meh. Obama doesn't need to win Ohio to win the election. He would get to 272 with just the Kerry states+NM/CO/IA/NV.
That said if he wins it he wins the election.
This. It's always funny when right-wingers try to discredit PPP for asinine reasons even though they've got a pretty solid track record.quadriplegicjon said:
Even in WI-recall, where they had Walker up 50-47 in their last poll (he won by 53-46), give him the margin of error and it becomes 53-47. They got it.
Obama's organization has been running almost completely independent of the state party in NC, but of all the states he won in 08 besides Indiana, it'd probably be the first to go. I think he'll win Florida by a hair though and Ohio and Virginia by decent margins.Black Republican said:
NihonTiger90
Member
I think there is some logic behind this analysis, namely that save for one thing (the controversial emergency manager law, but that was more the Legislature's own doing), the Michigan GOP and Snyder have both kept things a bit quiet.
I'm more interested personally in the Brown/Mandel race. Mandel is trying to tie Brown directly as being a puppet for Obama, but I'm not so sure it's working.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Polls continue to show Colorado close, it's not a given Obama wins it. I would say NM and Nevada will go blue again though. Reid showed how powerful the dem machine in NV is, and with the local GOP party there fucking up...Obama should win.
All Romney needs is Florida, Ohio, and Virginia.
All Romney needs is Florida, Ohio, and Virginia.
right, what most people have been saying. Romney needs to win all the swing states to win, Obama needs to win 1.
Black Republican
Member
if obama wins isit true you get banned? lol
PhoenixDark
Banned
I'm pretty sure it's an avatar bet, but I'd take a 3 month ban bet as long as I get to make one final post on November 7th
Aaron Strife
Banned
I would like to see PPP go into Colorado again soon, they haven't polled it since April.
Unfortunately without a gubernatorial or senatorial election, it's not as fun to poll.
lol have you already written your concession speech?
I think a ban bet on like, Dems keeping the Senate would be far more interesting.
Byakuya769
Member
Who is on the other side of that wager?
Phoenix and Kosmo, are you guys from Michigan? You seem to know a lot about my state. Just wondering. I have lived in Oakland County my whole life.
I will admit I don't know much about the west side of the state. I really just can't imagine this state going for Romney though.
I will admit I don't know much about the west side of the state. I really just can't imagine this state going for Romney though.
Flying_Phoenix
Banned
All this drama and trolling over a fucking avatar bet Phoenix?
This avatar you will be using better be damn good.
This avatar you will be using better be damn good.
Given NV's unemployment I think it's silly to assume Obama has it simply because of Harry Reid, the most incompetent twit to ever lead the Senate in eons.
The only reason why Sharron Angle lost is because she a total fucking loon and couldn't hide it nearly as well as the other total fucking loons in the GOP who rode a wave to victory in 2010.
Just sayin'.
We're so fucked. Just wait until Europe goes belly up.
There aren't nearly as many rich liberals in this country who are going to feel that sense of urgency to donate to Obama, and he's going to come up short.
We're totally fucked.
The only reason why Sharron Angle lost is because she a total fucking loon and couldn't hide it nearly as well as the other total fucking loons in the GOP who rode a wave to victory in 2010.
Just sayin'.
We're so fucked. Just wait until Europe goes belly up.
Uhh we're talking anonymous donors here. Important people in Fortune 500 companies that Obama loves to rip on could donate as individuals as much as they want, whenever they want, anonymously, if he or she so desired. Think about retailers. Health care companies. Gun companies. Etc. etc. The very nature of the CU decision strongly favors those who are a. rich b. Republican and c. feel targeted by the Democrats proposed taxation and overall economic policies. It empowers basically the wealthiest snobbiest bastards who work for or closely with companies that feel even the least bit slighted by something Obama has done or straight up disagrees with him. Investors too. It all favors the GOP more than anyone else.
There aren't nearly as many rich liberals in this country who are going to feel that sense of urgency to donate to Obama, and he's going to come up short.
We're totally fucked.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Byakuya769: not a single person has been willing to take the bet. I guess my record scares them off
I live in Michigan (Ypsilanti) ie Washtenaw County. Very liberal college town area
I live in Michigan (Ypsilanti) ie Washtenaw County. Very liberal college town area
Particle Physicist
between a quark and a baryon
huh?
according to cartoon_soldier
2008 exit polls:
41% Democrat
29 Republican
29 Independent or something else
PPP:
38% Democrat
28% Republican
34% Other
Particle Physicist
between a quark and a baryon
That is from a comment section.. via Kosmo no less.
EDIT
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#MIP00p1
cartoon's numbers are correct
Byakuya769
Member
Haha. Doubt anyone is taking that bet now. The truth at how close this is going to be seems to have sunk in for everyone.
Officerrob
Banned
The internals of the PPP poll are inline with the Michigan electorate. Take a look at the history of the poll that has it close in Michigan, it's the only poll that has had Romney with a lead there (several times) over the last 18 months. It has been and will continue to be a clear outlier.
eBay Huckster
Member
Unsourced line posted by Kosmo that directly contradicts the demographic statistics already provided? Must be gospel!
FWIW that poll that has it close is the same poll that's gratuitously outlying with the Stabenow/Hoekstra race
PhoenixDark
Banned
DailyKos and some other blogs are running with a story that Romney impersonated a police officer in college. Desperate times
Did you ever see that picture of Obama in traditional Muslim garb?
Officerrob
Banned
Pretty much a non-story now, but if true, Romney had to have been the biggest douchebag in college.
BotoxAgent
Member
He's an even bigger douche now. Every syllable that comes out of his mouth these days is a bald-faced lie. It's probably working since the media just lets them go.
PhoenixDark
Banned
It's the only reason I stopped supporting Hillary's campaign. Of course I saw it
As far as the EC goes, Ohio is pretty irrelevant for Dems. They can lose Ohio and still get to 270 simply by defending CO, NV, and NM.
All of which are not swing states anymore.
cartoon_soldier
Member
We are only into the 1st week of June and it's been pretty shitty for Obama's campaign. I wonder how the poll numbers in July will look after this month is done.
CO Swing state currently. Romney has best chance of winning it if economy goes at the same pace or goes down.
CO Swing state currently. Romney has best chance of winning it if economy goes at the same pace or goes down.
If that's what you want to tell yourself.
Demographics have shifted too much in CO. Whomever carries the Latino vote in CO this Nov will win CO.
This is an overly optimistic view. It's not a must win, as in 2004, but it's still the single most important state in the election and it will be quite close barring something strange.
Yeah. I wouldn't say OH is irreverent. It's just no longer a win-or-lose state for Dems in an EC sense. As for CO, it's a lean Dem state. It'll be close, but Obama will ultimately win the state, I think. I'm far more interested to see if Obama can win VA again. It's a state he always polled well in, and winning it makes the EC math for the GOP much harder. All Obama has to do is hold on to Kerry's states and win CO and VA and he wins.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Or 2004 + CO, NV and NM
Flying_Phoenix
Banned
You know what fuck it. I'll take a bet with Phoenix (this place is getting boring as hell lately anyhow).
If Barrack Obama loses the next election, I, Flying_Phoenix, will not only change his avatar to text saying "I personally jinxed Obama's victory for the 2012 election", but will also request a mod for the tag "Worst poster in NeoGaf history".
PhoenixDark
Banned
So why do recent polls from CO show a toss up?
Romney needs OH or its over, whereas Obama could lose it and still win the election. Still, if Obama loses Ohio I think it would likely signal some major problems, and likely result in a loss imo.
Florida's nonsense tends to convince me Romney will squeak out a win there. Demographics suggest Obama will win Virginia, as do recent polls, but it's a state I think can shift (unlike say, New Mexico) depending on the economy/surprises/debates.
In short, there could easily be a domino effect that swings things to Romney in those three states - and ultimately win him the election. With Europe on the brink and Israel itching to start a war, there are just too many potential factors to fuck things up - not to mention the already stagnating economy. When I take these things into effect I don't see Obama winning. It's like sailing through an ocean of land mines. You could make it through but it's likely you'll get hit by one
PhoenixDark
Banned
I'll take that too, but I don't want a new tag. Just an avatar of your choosing saying whatever you want for a year
I feel like I'm taking candy from children here
Every time people start to think Mitt could win, I look at this again: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html
Romney has never really lead the aggregate polls. Still hasn't either.
Romney has never really lead the aggregate polls. Still hasn't either.
TacticalFox88
Banned
Everytime someone mentions the possibility of Romney winning, I panic, then remember the electoral college. 
BotoxAgent
Member
yeah, I still feel okay about Obama's chances. But the whole Citzen's United thing is the wild card that just throws this whole election into uncertainty.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Mason-Dixon poll of North Dakota Senate finds Heidi Heitkamp (D) up by just a 1 point margin - hardly the Likely R many pundits have pegged it at.
Best plausible Senate results for Democrats is holding 2 of MO, MT, ND, losing NE, and holding VA and WI while winning MA and NV. Keeps them at 53 while King wins the Maine seat.
Best plausible Senate results for Democrats is holding 2 of MO, MT, ND, losing NE, and holding VA and WI while winning MA and NV. Keeps them at 53 while King wins the Maine seat.
RustyNails
Member
Michigan wants Romney after Let Detroit Go Bankrupt article? I want an avatar bet on this!
BotoxAgent
Member
Pfft, wouldn't be surprised that Mitt denies he ever wrote it and said the writer was actually Obama. He's become that kind of man now.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Wonder when he'll start trying to convince everyone that Obama was president from 2004 on.
Flying_Phoenix
Banned
Everytime someone mentions the possibility of Romney winning, I panic, then remember the electoral college.
Exactly. Obama has got this in the B-A-G.
Regardless as long Europe stays afloat for five months Romney is finished.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Obama doesn't have it in the BAG.
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
Electorally he quite honestly does. Mitt needs literally everything to go right to win, if he loses pretty much even a single swing state he's screwed. Its not going to happen.
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