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PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread

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Chumly

Member
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...t-may-be-most-conservative-in-modern-history/

fivethirtyeight-0329-scotus1-blog480.png


The most liberal justice is smack dab in the center. Ginsberg is progressive in a relative sense.
But eznark told me they were all liberal hacks
 
PoliGAF |OT| Campaign Mode! because the country can probably run itself for 5 months.

Poligaf |OT| This Thread Is Doing Just Fine Without Cops and Firefighters

PoliGAF 2012 |OT| Romney vs Romney vs Obama

PoliGAF |OT| Reply if you disagree

I think these ones are the winners. Especially if bringing new people into discussion is something we desire. Every time there is a political thread outside PoliGAF, too many people complain "I love Politics, but PoliGAF is a liberal echo chamber." It's hard to entice new people in, especially, those whose views disagree with the majority here, but I think it's something that needs to be pushed for. This discussion comes up every time there is a new thread, so I realize this isn't something new, but I really hope something can be done about this. That's one of the reasons I favor the last suggestion.
 

PantherLotus

Professional Schmuck
I love MHP and Chris Hayes. After seeing them both in action, MHP seems much more niche than I expected. Don't get me wrong, Saturday mornings on MSNBC have some of the smartest conversations on television. But no way does MHP need a daily.

Chris Hayes could do it, though there's no way he could keep his professorial presentation (which I freaking love). Crystal Ball could as well, but she wouldn't last long.

I'm personally rooting for Ezra Klein, but he's still pretty meh with the teleprompter. I question whether he can officiate a conversation rather than be in one of the corners, but he's probably the most marketable and smartest product that could fit in a daily.

Personally, I think MSBNC should go like this:

  • Morning Joe's Morning Cocktail Hours
  • Chuck Todd's Amazing Political Circus
  • Andrea Mitchell's False Equivalence, Never Lets on How Fucking Smart She Is
  • Alex Wagner's Tennis Audience Cosplay, First Left, then Right
  • Ezra Klein's Lispy Economic Sweetness
  • Martin Bashir's Forced Outrage, Uncomfortable Repertoire With Basically Everyone
  • Chris Matthews' No Longer Quite Hardball
  • Chris Hayes' and the Technicolor Dream Brain
  • Lawrence O'Donnell's Righteous Angry True-Liberalism
  • Rachel Maddow's Best First-15 Minutes on Nightly Television

They need to axe Ed and Al as soon as possible, but apparently they both play extremely well. If you haven't noticed, Rachel has somewhat taken over the network (in terms of "coaching trees") and I can't imagine a better person to do so.
 

ToxicAdam

Member
Leading up to the conventions, the SC decision is going to be the huge story. The title should probably reflect that, but it's not really something that lends itself to a snappy title. I've tried to think of one for a few days and failed.
 

PantherLotus

Professional Schmuck
Leading up to the conventions, the SC decision is going to be the huge story. The title should probably reflect that, but it's not really something that lends itself to a snappy title. I've tried to think of one for a few days and failed.

I know this is crazy, and we just met, but why not have a serious title?
 

Diablos

Member
Leading up to the conventions, the SC decision is going to be the huge story. The title should probably reflect that, but it's not really something that lends itself to a snappy title. I've tried to think of one for a few days and failed.
Eh, maybe at first, but I can't see this being a health care election. It'll be about the economy when the convention nears.

Oddly enough, if the SCOTUS upheld even the mandate, then I think it would be a bigger deal. Congressional Republicans would go apeshit.
 

PantherLotus

Professional Schmuck
I'm pretty sure that no matter they decide, a whole lot of people are going to go apeshit. There's a realistic scenario in which any decision motivates the other side to come out in droves for 2012.
 

Diablos

Member
I'm pretty sure that no matter they decide, a whole lot of people are going to go apeshit. There's a realistic scenario in which any decision motivates the other side to come out in droves for 2012.
Striking down the mandate and leaving the rest intact seems to me like something that would have a neutralizing effect in terms of Democrats and Republicans feeling compelled to vote.

If the whole law were to be upheld, you'd have all the same Tea Party idiots making "Obamacare" front and center.
If the entire law were to be struck down you'd have Democrats screaming bloody murder and would be willing to express that at the polls.
If the mandate is struck down but the law survives, Republicans will be happy but also will feel like it needs to be "fixed" or most likely repealed. "A step forward" if you will.
Democrats will be glad it wasn't totally thrown out but will want to do everything they can to ensure it's "fixed" properly and not the way Mitt Romney and the GOP would have their way with it.
 

Chichikov

Member
Striking down the mandate and leaving the rest intact seems to me like something that would have a neutralizing effect in terms of Democrats and Republicans feeling compelled to vote.

If the whole law were to be upheld, you'd have all the same Tea Party idiots making "Obamacare" front and center.
If the entire law were to be struck down you'd have Democrats screaming bloody murder and would be willing to express that at the polls.
If the mandate is struck down but the law survives, Republicans will be happy but also will feel like it needs to be "fixed" or most likely repealed. "A step forward" if you will.
Democrats will be glad it wasn't totally thrown out but will want to do everything they can to ensure it's "fixed" properly and not the way Mitt Romney and the GOP would have their way with it.
Insurance companies will go apeshit in that case and rightfully so.
You can't force them to accept patients with pre-existing conditions if there is no mandate; people will just never get insurance until they get sick.
 

ToxicAdam

Member
I don't think farm subsidies are crippling our nation nor do I think they should be eliminated, but it's just some information I found interesting.

farms.jpg



According to the USDA, the net income from U.S. farms set a new record last year of almost $100 billion on record cash receipts of $363 billion. The record-high farm income last year was 24% above income in 2010. The USDA is also reporting that the total value of farm real estate (and total farm equity) exceeded $2 trillion last year for the first time, and increased by 6% from the previous year. Even with record-level income, revenues and farm land values, U.S. farmers also "harvested" more than $21 billion in subsidies last year from the pockets of U.S. taxpayers, including more than $10 billion in direct payments according to the USDA
 

PantherLotus

Professional Schmuck
Fuck man, no idea.

If I was held at gunpoint and had to guess at this moment, I'd say the whole thing probably goes down, 5-4. I don't think they'll split it up, and I don't think Kennedy swings.

I think Alito/Scalia/Roberts/Thomas, in combination with Bush/Cheney and the Iraq War, will go down as the third most difficult/shameful part of American History:

In order:
1. Slavery/Civil War
2. The Great Depression/ WWII
3. Bush/Cheney / Iraq / Katrina / The Great Recession
4. Late Guilded Age, The 1890s Depression
5. Nixon / Vietnam / Civil Rights Era

I guess that covers pretty much everything, except for some of the questionable actions of the founding fathers.
 
Insurance companies will go apeshit in that case and rightfully so.
You can't force them to accept patients with pre-existing conditions if there is no mandate; people will just never get insurance until they get sick.

Not necessarily. Beyond the mandate, ACA offers a lot of subsidies to low and middle income Americans who wouldn't purchase insurance otherwise because it's so expensive. Cohn had a good blog about this earlier in the week.
 
Insurance companies will go apeshit in that case and rightfully so.
You can't force them to accept patients with pre-existing conditions if there is no mandate; people will just never get insurance until they get sick.
I've been of the opinion since this case went to arguments that the court may rule this way because they'll confuse maximizing the number of unhappy parties with s fair decision.
 

Chichikov

Member
You can't pin Vietnam on Nixon.
Also, you're forgetting the Indian, well, the Indian everything, the Spanish American war, Grenada, Nicaragua, Panama, Chile, Iran and and I'm sure I'm forgetting many other things.

I don't see Roberts court getting close to any of these.

Just saying.

Edit: And for what it's worth, from a theoretical perspective, I can live with striking down of the mandate.
I'm a practical person and as I see it as an improvement over the current situation I would like to see it stand, but if you came to me and say - "I want to start a country from scratch, and we're going to put in our constitutions that the government can't force the citizens to buy a product from private for profit companies", I would be pretty okay with that.
So while I think that Roberts is a partisan shill, from a legal point of a view, I don't think such decision would be so radical.
But you know, I'm not a huge fan of the whole judicial review thing to begin with (and yeah, I apply it to Roe v. Wade as well).
 
You can't pin Vietnam on Nixon.
Also, you're forgetting the Indian, well, the Indian everything, the Spanish American war, Grenada, Nicaragua, Panama, Chile, Iran and and I'm sure I'm forgetting many other things.

I don't see Roberts court getting close to any of these.

Just saying.

Edit: And for what it's worth, from a theoretical perspective, I can live with striking down of the mandate.
I'm a practical person and as I see it as an improvement over the current situation I would like to see it stand, but if you came to me and say - "I want to start a country from scratch, and we're going to put in our constitutions that the government can't force the citizens to buy a product from private for profit companies", I would be pretty okay with that.
So while I think that Roberts is a partisan shill, from a legal point of a view, I don't think such decision would be so radical.
But you know, I'm not a huge fan of the whole judicial review thing to begin with (and yeah, I apply it to Roe v. Wade as well).

No. Screw that. If the mandate is struck down, it will make improving the law an extreme uphill battle, dealing with not only morons in Congress, but a useless SC that will likely overanalyze every new piece of legislation that intends to head down the path of Single Payer.
 

Diablos

Member
I think striking down the entire law can be thrown out the window. I really don't think that will happen. Its either entire law is fine or mandate gets struck down.

Fuck man, no idea.

If I was held at gunpoint and had to guess at this moment, I'd say the whole thing probably goes down, 5-4. I don't think they'll split it up, and I don't think Kennedy swings.
Oh boy.

I don't think we have any idea what's really gonna happen. :|
 

Chichikov

Member
No. Screw that. If the mandate is struck down, it will make improving the law an extreme uphill battle, dealing with not only morons in Congress, but a useless SC that will likely overanalyze every new piece of legislation that intends to head down the path of Single Payer.
Listen, we're going to end with medicare for all.
You know it, I know it, the GOP knows it, even the insurance industry knows it.
If I ever hear a squeak from the supreme court or the GOP about striking medicare down then I'll start to worry.
For 30 seconds, before I remember what it will do to them politically.
 

Chumly

Member
I don't think farm subsidies are crippling our nation nor do I think they should be eliminated, but it's just some information I found interesting.

farms.jpg

I think its pretty obvious they need to be massively reworked. Farm welfare has outgrown its usefulness and shouldn't given out to people already making hundreds of thousands of dollars a year.
 
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...t-may-be-most-conservative-in-modern-history/

fivethirtyeight-0329-scotus1-blog480.png


The most liberal justice is smack dab in the center. Ginsberg is progressive in a relative sense.

The Martin-Quinn standard is only based on whether a justice affirmed or dissented on an opinion. The standard doesn't look at the court case to determine the liberal and conservative viewpoints in each case. Rather the ideology of justices is taken as notice, e.g. if a justice agrees with Scalia, that's one for the conservative tally, and that results in a rightward drift. Since, we have four extremely reliable conservative justices, and only two reliable liberal justices, (too early in the game to tell with Kagan) the drift is going to move rightward.

Therefore, the best way to discern Ginsburg's stripes is to look at her work and her views.

She worked on quite a few S.Ct cases for the ACLU's Women Rights section. (Not where a centrist would work.) She supports the citation of foreign laws in U.S. jurisprudence.(http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/12/us/12ginsburg.html?_r=1) She pretty much shit upon the U.S. Constitution as a model for other countries to use when drafting their own constitutions. (http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/02/ginsburg-likes-s-africa-as-model-for-egypt/

She's pro-gun control. http://www.ontheissues.org/Ruth_Bader_Ginsburg.htm



These aren't centrist views. Not even close. On the world-wide stage they would be centrist. However, in the United States they aren't.
 

Chichikov

Member
Why the hell not? How about just Cambodia and Laos, then?
Nixon didn't want Vietnam, Nixon tried to leave Vietnam, and while I don't agree with his methods, unlike LBJ (who shared the same goal, thank you very much for that awesome legacy JFK) he actually succeeded in ending that war.
And generally, Nixon was a great president on foreign policy.
 
Nixon didn't want Vietnam, Nixon tried to leave Vietnam, and while I don't agree with his methods, unlike LBJ (who shared the same goal, thank you very much for that awesome legacy JFK) he actually succeeded in ending that war.
And generally, Nixon was a great president on foreign policy.

Just a quick question because you seem brushed on in Vietnam policy and stuff. Was Communist Vietnam a highly brutal and oppressive regime? What I mean is that would the nation be significantly better if the anti-Communists won (given what you know about them, its impossible to be sure of anything)?
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
I'm confused. CAN the SC strike down the entire HCR bill? I thought the mandate was the only questionable portion?
 
I'm confused. CAN the SC strike down the entire HCR bill? I thought the mandate was the only questionable portion?

They could strike down the entire law. But getting rid of the mandate would basically kill it as well. Insurance companies would go crazy if they were stuck with the law without the mandate, and republicans wouldn't do anything to help solve the issue.

I think one or the other will happen, and regardless the law will be shitcanned before it truly goes into effect. A shame, but at the same time it's rather laughable that the administration didn't change around some language/severablity clause/etc at the time. There were folks out there who wondered about what the SC might do, back in 09/10
 

Chichikov

Member
Just a quick question because you seem brushed on in Vietnam policy and stuff. Was Communist Vietnam a highly brutal and oppressive regime? What I mean is that would the nation be significantly better if the anti-Communists won (given what you know about them, its impossible to be sure of anything)?
It would've been two nations had South Vietnam won.
Anyway, it's hard to tell, there were lots of bad brutal people in that part of the world, but I think it's pretty safe to say that the US involvement there did not help the situation.
 
While I'm still hoping that they uphold everything, the mandate being stricken down but everything else left standing would probably be most entertaining. Insurance companies would freak out, Republicans and Democrats would freak out because their big donors are freaking out, tea party and Romney would still want to kill obamacare dead, and obama, I don't know, but it'd be crazy good entertainment. If the SC believes that the mandate is an overreach of government then surely they must feel that striking down everything would be an overreach by them.
 
It would've been two nations had South Vietnam won.
Anyway, it's hard to tell, there were lots of bad brutal people in that part of the world, but I think it's pretty safe to say that the US involvement there did not help the situation.

Pretty much. Because of U.S. involvement, Pol Pot rose to power killing more people than Vietnam killed, and in the end Vietnam wasn't that bad, they were only Communist for around a decade and are now essentially a smaller China.
 

el jacko

Member
It would've been two nations had South Vietnam won.
Anyway, it's hard to tell, there were lots of bad brutal people in that part of the world, but I think it's pretty safe to say that the US involvement there did not help the situation.
Had South Vietnam remained, it would have likely evolved similarly to South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore, in that it would have had a massive economic boom under a brutal dictatorship equally oppressive as any of those countries, or North Vietnam and mainland China. Maybe it would have had a democratic revolution like Korea and Taiwan? "What if" history questions are hard.

EDIT: but yes, you're right about Cambodia. It was a small, struggling country but with a decent economic future that was immediately snuffed out by Pol Pot (and, indirectly, the US govt for putting him into power). I've heard some people say that Cambodia still hasn't recovered from the Khmer Rouge (as he killed anyone with an education)
 
Had South Vietnam remained, it would have likely evolved similarly to South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore, in that it would have had a massive economic boom under a brutal dictatorship equally oppressive as any of those countries, or North Vietnam and mainland China. Maybe it would have had a democratic revolution like Korea and Taiwan?

I thought Communist China was ruthless?

"What if" history questions are hard.

True which is why I try to avoid them, but I don't know I find them interesting.

EDIT: but yes, you're right about Cambodia. It was a small, struggling country but with a decent economic future that was immediately snuffed out by Pol Pot (and, indirectly, the US govt for putting him into power). I've heard some people say that Cambodia still hasn't recovered from the Khmer Rouge (as he killed anyone with an education)

Killing a fourth of the population and enslaving almost everyone 1865 style didn't help either.
 

el jacko

Member
I thought Communist China was ruthless?
The dictatorships in Korea and Taiwan weren't exactly pleasant, either. The prison in Seoul used during the Japanese colonial period for political prisoners/torture/interrogation/etc, for example, was used until the late 1980s by the post-Korean War government (at which point, it was then turned into a Japanese colonial period museum, leaving out the next forty years of its use).

True which is why I try to avoid them, but I don't know I find them interesting.
They certainly are fun to think about! I try to avoid them in serious discussion as well, but they can be quite interesting.
 

eznark

Banned
I think these ones are the winners. Especially if bringing new people into discussion is something we desire. Every time there is a political thread outside PoliGAF, too many people complain "I love Politics, but PoliGAF is a liberal echo chamber." It's hard to entice new people in, especially, those whose views disagree with the majority here, but I think it's something that needs to be pushed for. This discussion comes up every time there is a new thread, so I realize this isn't something new, but I really hope something can be done about this. That's one of the reasons I favor the last suggestion.

Now that we in the the back alley, the title doesn't matter. Forget liberal echo chamber, this is just 8-10 people talking to themselves in the same room.


But why? All the subsidies, and provisions about having kids on their parents plans until their 26, etc. aren't constitutional issues.
Pelosi's Grand Mistake
 

PantherLotus

Professional Schmuck
FWIW, I only included Nixon and Vietnam on the same line as a generality, in the same way that I included Katrina under Bush (note that I included the "civil rights era" under Nixon as well). It's not just who was president or how they reacted, it's the general sense that the Government is causing more harm than good.

And yes, excluding the genocide of Native Americans is shameful oversight on my part. I could be wrong, but it can probably be encapsulated with the trail of tears and Andrew Jackson. I'd probably put it just above Nixon/Vietnam for what it did to our national legacy.
 

eznark

Banned
Why did the Gilded Age make your list? I don't know enough about it to have an educated discussion one way or the other, just wondering why it makes your list of worst times ever? Even the 1893 Panic was really only a huge deal for like a year, right? And the economy was mostly fully recovered within a few.

Also, you missed FDR.
 
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