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PoliGAF 2013 |OT1| Never mind, Wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

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rSpooky

Member
Guys... hey guys.. Obama is just like Hitler.. maybe not today , but what he becomes in the end.. He is already stealing all these ideas from Hitler , like surrounding him with children while signing Gunlaws ... Really! My FB wall is full of this news.


Seriously I need some sanity GAF.. :( Why are all these people that are wonderful, caring, people be so paranoid?

I try to reason with them, and it does not help, do I really have to wait 4 years to say , see no dictatorship.?
 
Yeah that Whole Foods CEO thing is ridiculous. Fascism is Hitler and Mussolini. No one in American politics is near that. Then again they call him a Communist as well which just isn't true.

It does make me wonder though. What would be worse? Living under Communism or Fascism?
 
A) Half the program is still in place. This just cut the second tranche.
B) This isn't actually the "pseudo public option" from before, this is a totally different program.
C) Still sucks that it got cut.

Can you explain this a little more?

ClovingWestbrook, why are you so confident in 2014?
 

codhand

Member
Biden is gonna roll into the Senate chamber on his steed and save us all from shut down. And then hopefully do it again a third time for continuing resolutions. Harry Reid better keep his fireplace lit.
 
http://blog.ourfuture.org/20130115/...t-default-and-shutdown-is-not-an-empty-threat

you see what happens /Walter

I've been saying 2020 for awhile. I suppose a wave election in 2016 (Hillary) could do the trick, but it would still be very hard given the amount of republican specific districts that were created.

Ultimately the democrats new "ascendant" base will need to show up and vote in off elections.

If that's true that the GOP doesn't care about letting the government go into default then why did they let the fiscal cliff bill pass?
 

Jooney

Member
I just caught up with the gun control press conference after a long day in the office. Even though I am not American I must say I was proud in the way Obama tackled this issue, how he acknowledged the enormity of the challenge, and how reasonable he sounded. He used the term 'common sense' many times and his words and actions followed suit. Contrast that to the craziness of the NRA for the past 30 odd days since Newtown, who sound like they have come completely unhinged - from their terrible press conference to their solution of armed guards, and finally their despicable ad that aired yesterday. Someone said it earlier but Obama just being Obama is giving these people enough rope to hang themselves in the court of public opinion.

I really liked his acknowledgement of the opposition and their arguments that will come up - including the overreach of a tyrannical government - and how the ordinary joe can combat that by simply asking someone opposed to the measured enacted why they think it's a bad idea. Also, using Reagan's own words on why gun control for assault weapons is needed was a welcome touch. I love how for all their idolization of Reagan, there is a counterpoint to many conservatives stand for that were espoused by Reagan:
- lowered taxes but then raised them numerous times incrementally
- immigration reform by advocating amnesty
- weapons proliferation, by advocating dis-armament
- and now gun control and the advocacy of reduced assault style weapons

The gun lobby have no doubt imploded, but I would like to see them provide honest and reasonable arguments for why some of these provisions are bad:
- universal background check: how can we tell if a gun is being sold to a felon, a mentally ill person, or someone who has been prohibited from purchasing firearms without a background check on all firearm purchases?
- nominating an ATF director: what's the reasonable sounding argument that a head of a government unit not have an accountable executive?
- exploratory research into the possibility of links between violent video games and gun violence: if gun advocates are for this, how can they be against the CDC researching ways to reduce gun violence? That would be entirely hypocritical.

For all the talk of Obama going against his base, I think today can be chalked up into a good day for liberals and reasonable people who seek a pragmatic approach to minimize a tragic real-world problem. If anyone cannot debate the merits of the proposals without resorting to accusations of overreach, tyranny, and socialism (or is it fascism?), then they shouldn't be engaged in the conversation.

On a final note, there was an op-ed in today's nytimes from our former Prime Minister John Howard, who detailed the approach - and battles - he had to undertake to reform gun laws in the wake of our worst massacre 17 years ago. It's worth a read for anyone interested in the subject:

I Went After Guns. Obama Can, Too.
 

RDreamer

Member
If that's true that the GOP doesn't care about letting the government go into default then why did they let the fiscal cliff bill pass?

What does this have to do with the government going into default? They care about taxes, and the fiscal cliff bill made sure at least some taxes didn't go up.
 

Tim-E

Member
Guys, don't get your hopes up right away about a Democratic wave election in 2014 this early. At this point in 2009 the Democrats had just won a huge election and it looked like they were unstoppable. Two years later they got completely clobbered.

Public opinion definitely isn't on the side of the obstructionist GOP right now, but what I'm trying to say is that it's next to impossible to predict how the next two years will play out.
 

RDreamer

Member
Guys, don't get your hopes up right away about a Democratic wave election in 2014 this early. At this point in 2009 the Democrats had just won a huge election and it looked like they were unstoppable. Two years later they got completely clobbered.

Public opinion definitely isn't on the side of the obstructionist GOP right now, but what I'm trying to say is that it's next to impossible to predict how the next two years will play out.

That and it would take something like a 7% overall victory in order to take back the House, which seems pretty impossible to accomplish. Previous wave victories haven't even hit that.
 

Tim-E

Member
That and it would take something like a 7% overall victory in order to take back the House, which seems pretty impossible to accomplish. Previous wave victories haven't even hit that.

Yep. The Republicans taking control of the redistricting process at the start of the decade is really going to make the next four House races very difficult for Democrats.
 

Tim-E

Member
Bringing up the blog idea again, I'd be down for participating. I've been wanting to work on my political writing and I've had a few ideas. I'd also be more apt to actively post and participate if there were other people involved as opposed to running a blog by myself.

Let's do this!
 

RDreamer

Member
I'm pretty sure the 2006 election and the 2008 election were both over 7%.

Ah, just looked up the article, and they'd need barely under what they got in 2006, and that would give them pretty much a bare minimum.

The upshot of this is that if Democrats across the country had performed six percentage points better than they actually did last November, they still would have barely missed capturing a majority in the House of Representatives. In order to take control of the House, Democrats would have needed to win the 2012 election by 7.25 percentage points. That’s significantly more than the Republican margin of victory in the 2010 GOP wave election (6.6 percent), and only slightly less than the margin of victory in the 2006 Democratic wave election (7.9 percent). If Democrats had won in 2012 by the same commanding 7.9 percent margin they achieved in 2006, they would still only have a bare 220-215 seat majority in the incoming House, assuming that these additional votes were distributed evenly throughout the country. That’s how powerful the GOP’s gerrymandered maps are; Democrats can win a Congressional election by nearly 8 points and still barely capture the House.

Either way, that's really not that promising.


Bringing up the blog idea again, I'd be down for participating. I've been wanting to work on my political writing and I've had a few ideas. I'd also be more apt to actively post and participate if there were other people involved as opposed to running a blog by myself.

Let's do this!

If you guys really do want to do it, I could find some time to do quick design work for it.
 
http://www.tnr.com/blog/plank/111966/its-not-fever-how-obama-can-break-the-house-republicans

The lesson in all this for Obama is simple: Don’t bother engaging Republican leaders behind closed doors. The only way to move the leadership is to move pragmatic conservatives. And the only way to move pragmatic conservatives is to arrange it so that the political consequences of siding with the pure conservatives are brutal.

To his credit, the president has opened the debt-limit fight doing just that.
“If congressional Republicans refuse to pay America’s bills on time, Social Security checks, and veterans benefits will be delayed,” he said at his press conference on Monday. “We might not be able to pay our troops, or honor our contracts with small business owners.” Those words may not break a conservative’s fever. But they should make anyone sitting next to him flee as quickly as possible.

Calling it now, Republicans are going to fold like a freshly laundered shirt the debt ceiling.
 

Tim-E

Member
If you guys really do want to do it, I could find some time to do quick design work for it.

Sorry if I missed anyone, but the list of those who've expressed interest in working with it are:
RDreamer
Dax
Oblivion
Frank the Great
pigeon
Tim-E

I'm of no use in regard to design, but I like to think that I'm a decent writer when I put the time into it. I've got ideas I'd like to write about and old writing that I could re-tool to share periodically.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Sorry if I missed anyone, but the list of those who've expressed interest in working with it are:
RDreamer
Dax
Oblivion
Frank the Great
pigeon
Tim-E

I'm of no use in regard to design, but I like to think that I'm a decent writer when I put the time into it. I've got ideas I'd like to write about and old writing that I could re-tool to share periodically.

I'll help as well, I've been meaning to branch out into blogging.
 

pigeon

Banned
Can you explain this a little more?

ClovingWestbrook, why are you so confident in 2014?

The "fake public option" thing everybody was talking about was basically a single nationwide plan that would act as a backstop for states nobody wanted to insure, run by a non-profit (as well as one run by a normal insurance company). This is a loan program for different non-profits to set up individual plans in specific states. Think of it as the difference between a bunch of credit unions and a national bank.

Personally, I think that as long as some co-op loans survive, the program will serve its purpose. Obamacare basically combines a strong mandate/guaranteed issue/price control/subsidy program with a whole bunch of little pilot programs that are basically just supposed to test the effectiveness of certain policies with a view towards building on them later. From that perspective, $2 billion in co-op loans is probably enough to see whether they'll be effective at controlling costs. I'm also somewhat more wary about large innovation-focused loan programs after reading the Wonkblog articke on Solyndra. Of course, from the perspective of people who wanted to open a CO-OP, this is pretty brutal.
 

GhaleonEB

Member
Jobless claims at a 5 year low, housing at a 5 year high. Will this sift the polling numbers? Romney in trouble yet?

Obama will plunge once Gallup switches back to the LV model.

Jobless claims in January bounce around a lot, there's a ton of seasonal distortion in the data. Still, on an unadjusted basis:

UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 555,708 in the week ending January 12, an increase of 2,360 from the previous week. There were 525,422 initial claims in the comparable week in 2012.

The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.0 percent during the week ending January 5, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 3,850,441, an increase of 170,067 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 3.2 percent and the volume was 4,109,127.
So there's definitely year over year improvement, just likely not as large as the seasonally adjusted figures imply.
 

LosDaddie

Banned
I had to leave that thread as quickly as I entered it. The gaming side is going to get me banned.

I saw ToxicAdam on the Gaming side yesterday.


Ugh. Fox found its new Alan Colmes with Dennis Kucinich. The small weird-looking lefty guy to be the punching-bag and the butt of the jokes. His UFO stuff will make for great fodder.

Ugh.

Juan Williams and Beckel are already 'that' guy. Kucinich must really need the $$
 
On a final note, there was an op-ed in today's nytimes from our former Prime Minister John Howard, who detailed the approach - and battles - he had to undertake to reform gun laws in the wake of our worst massacre 17 years ago. It's worth a read for anyone interested in the subject:

I Went After Guns. Obama Can, Too.
I Went After Guns. Obama Can, Too.
By JOHN HOWARD
Published: January 16, 2013

And the thing is, John Howard is a conservative. He eventually got kicked out for being too much like George Bush.
 

sharbhund

Member
Yep. The Republicans taking control of the redistricting process at the start of the decade is really going to make the next four House races very difficult for Democrats.

Good thing that Tom DeLay already set precedent with the Supreme Court that it's OK to redistrict in the middle of a decade:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_Texas_redistricting

Of course, this Supreme Court would probably reverse itself if the Dems tried to do it.
 

Talon

Member
So I have a few friends that work around healthcare - mostly provider side as clients.

The CO-OP was never intended or expected to amount to more than 600,000 subscribers. It was a hypothetical more than an actual product.
 

Captain Pants

Killed by a goddamned Dredgeling
Idaho continues to embarrass me.

BOISE, IDAHO — A lawmaker from northern Idaho drew audible gasps Wednesday morning when he asked representatives from the American Civil Liberties Union-Idaho if their pro-abortion rights stance also means that they support prostitution.

Rep. Ron Mendive, R-Coeur d'Alene, made the comparison during a legislative breakfast presentation held by the ACLU on criminal justice reform and other legislative priorities.

Since the ACLU supports a woman's right to choose abortion, shouldn't the organization also support prostitution, Mendive asked ALCU-Idaho executive director Monica Hopkins. Mendive then said that prostitution is "a woman's choice."

Hopkins noted that a woman's right to access reproductive health care is constitutionally mandated, while prostitution is illegal. She also reminded Mendive that prostitution is not always a "choice," noting that a bill targeting human trafficking could be presented to lawmakers during the legislative session.

"He was correlating a criminal action with something that is constitutionally protected. Those are two completely separate issues," Hopkins said after the event. "When we're talking about women's rights, and a woman's right to choose, we are talking about reproductive rights that are constitutionally protected. What Rep. Mendive was talking about in the arena of prostitution is something that the state has very clearly said is an illegal activity ... in the same way that someone may choose to rob a bank, but that would be criminal activity that is not constitutionally protected."
 
Guns and immigration? I just don't see these boding well for 2014 considering it won't be a heavily minority electorate. Assuming the economy is better by then I think it's safe to assume dems won't suffer a massive blowout (2010 was more about 10% unemployment than health care) but a lot of dems will still lose seats. Even Al Franken is hiding over guns rigt now.

Then there's immigration. Fox News and the establishment GOP is currently fawning over Rubio's plan but how will the base react when they realize it's Obama's plan, which to be fair is basically Bush's 2007 plan. Rubio's momentum will stall the minute Obama gets involved, and once things get hard I bet Rubio will jump ship. He hasn't voted for anything since he was elected, he has no balls to take on his own party on anything.

These are two potentially ugly issues that may not be resolved until the summer. TPM is pointing out we may see a return of the summer 2009 fuckery due to guns, based on the early reactions to Obama's decisions. Throw in some "amnesty" and things will really heat up.
 

gcubed

Member
Guns and immigration? I just don't see these boding well for 2014 considering it won't be a heavily minority electorate. Assuming the economy is better by then I think it's safe to assume dems won't suffer a massive blowout (2010 was more about 10% unemployment than health care) but a lot of dems will still lose seats. Even Al Franken is hiding over guns rigt now.

Then there's immigration. Fox News and the establishment GOP is currently fawning over Rubio's plan but how will the base react when they realize it's Obama's plan, which to be fair is basically Bush's 2007 plan. Rubio's momentum will stall the minute Obama gets involved, and once things get hard I bet Rubio will jump ship. He hasn't voted for anything since he was elected, he has no balls to take on his own party on anything.

These are two potentially ugly issues that may not be resolved until the summer. TPM is pointing out we may see a return of the summer 2009 fuckery due to guns, based on the early reactions to Obama's decisions. Throw in some "amnesty" and things will really heat up.

yes please. The tea party has done nothing but ruin any kind of image they had, to the point were people are actively against them. If Obama can't get democrats to come out and vote, the tea party can
 

RDreamer

Member

I get what the guy was getting at. If you're fighting for a woman's right to choose in her reproductive life and/or sex life, then that can extend to what they do with their body elsewhere. I'd be in favor of legal prostitution, because it is that woman (or man)'s right to do what they want with their body. Obviously there'd be regulations on that (such as to stop cases where it really isn't a choice, or to make it more safer... kind of like some of the regulations we have on abortion), but pretty much that should be free, and for similar reasons.

I find that the retort doesn't make much sense. Isn't the constitutional protection of abortion rooted in your right to privacy? In such a case I don't see how prostitution couldn't be squeezed into that. Just saying well one is constitutional and one is illegal therefore they can't be equated seems like kind of a cop out. It's an appeal to authority. Why exactly is one illegal and one not? And since when would the legality of an activity stop the ACLU for fighting for it if they did believe it was a right?

I also find equating robbing a bank with freely selling your body by choice to be pretty problematic, too. Almost more problematic than the original comparison between abortion and prostitution...
 
Sorry if I missed anyone, but the list of those who've expressed interest in working with it are:
RDreamer
Dax
Oblivion
Frank the Great
pigeon
Tim-E

I'm of no use in regard to design, but I like to think that I'm a decent writer when I put the time into it. I've got ideas I'd like to write about and old writing that I could re-tool to share periodically.

I'll write stuff. I already have an into entry in mind. Might do this weekend or possibly tonight if the lakers piss me off enough.
 
Sorry if I missed anyone, but the list of those who've expressed interest in working with it are:
RDreamer
Dax
Oblivion
Frank the Great
pigeon
Tim-E

I'm of no use in regard to design, but I like to think that I'm a decent writer when I put the time into it. I've got ideas I'd like to write about and old writing that I could re-tool to share periodically.
I wouldn't mind contributing. I can't do any web stuff but I certainly wouldn't mind putting my rants into a more complete and coherent format.
 

pigeon

Banned
So one of Boehner's aides retweeted this post by one of Dennis Hastert's former aides. See if you can guess the subject:

feehery theory said:
My cousin Barry once said to me, with a mischievous grin, before he got in trouble with his parents, “rules are made to be broken.”
That certainly is the case these days with the so-called Hastert Rule.
I wrote the speech that the Speaker gave when he first uttered the phrase, “majority of the majority.”...
It is more of guideline than a hard and fast rule. And for Hastert, it worked pretty well. He was the longest serving Republican Speaker of the House in history.
But just because it worked for Denny doesn’t necessarily mean it has always worked. And in fact, each Speaker of the House has to find his own way....
Tip O’Neill, perhaps one of the most colorful Speakers in the history of the House, pretty much let the Republicans run the floor in the first two years of the Reagan Presidency. He didn’t have much choice. He didn’t have the votes....
I think John Boehner won’t have much of a choice in these first several months of the 113th Congress. He has to get stuff done. He had to schedule the vote on the tax vote extension. He had to schedule a vote on Sandy relief if he was going to maintain any credibility for the GOP majority. And he will have to extend the debt limit.
None of this is pleasant for the Speaker or for his majority. But my guess is that there are plenty of his colleagues who are more than happy to see all of these things pass and are just as happy to be able to vote against them.
I think the Speaker should give the President his debt limit extension, without any additional spending cuts included. But he should let the Democrats pass it on their own and have enough of his colleagues take a walk or vote present to let it get a majority....
The Speaker doesn’t have much room to maneuver. His conference is in no mood to compromise, nor in much of a mood to vote for anything that resembles responsible governance.
But as Speaker of the whole House, he has no choice but to schedule things that keep this country from defaulting on its debts and stay open.
The Hastert rule worked pretty well for Denny Hastert, but for the next couple of years, John Boehner might have to think more like Tip O’Neill if he wants to survive with his reputation intact.

http://www.thefeeherytheory.com/2013/01/16/rules-are-made-to-be-broken/

Backpats to TPM, although I swear I was going to post this before I saw their post.
 
Do we have anyone who can do poligaf cartoons? I'm not that great at cartoons but love to draw so maybe I could help anyway. Though I'm sure there's bound to be others with good digital drawing skills etc.
 

Tim-E

Member
Updated list:

RDreamer
Dax
Oblivion
Frank the Great
pigeon
Tim-E
speculawyer
Black Mamba
B-Dubs

I think this is a good list of initial contributors. Any ideas on a name? I don't think it should have GAF or anything in the name; I think it should be pretty neutral.

Do we have anyone who can do poligaf cartoons? I'm not that great at cartoons but love to draw so maybe I could help anyway. Though I'm sure there's bound to be others with good digital drawing skills etc.

Not me. My art skills have not evolved since the first grade.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Best possible response to Donald Trump:

zc1CD.jpg

That's a beautiful thing, I love it.
 
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