TacticalFox88
Banned
Rubio is likely getting primaried.
The GOP hasn't learnt it's lesson yet. At all.
The GOP hasn't learnt it's lesson yet. At all.
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PoliGAF 2013 |OT1| Never mind, Wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
- Thread starter ClovingWestbrook
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Because that worked so well for Romney. You are seriously overestimating this guy. It's not like he got into office with a huge percentage of the vote, if I remember right the only reason Rubio won was because the Republican he beat in the primary ran as an independent and split the vote allowing him to win.
The Librarian
Banned
You have that backwards kind of. The Democrat didn't back out, splitting the vote between him and Crist.
Ah right, thanks for the correction. Either way it's not like he got in on his own merits.
RustyNails
Member
I wonder how long before PD starts acclimating himself to a Rubio presidency. Remember his "A Romney presidency wouldn't be that different from Obama's..." posts?
Particle Physicist
between a quark and a baryon
Please don't try to speak for us. What exactly does he bring to the table to attract non-Cuban Americans? He may get a slight bump from the Hispanic angle, but I only see it as a very slight bump. We have no reason to trust a Republican, especially after how they have treated us lately. The Hispanic communities are way more intricate than that, and certainly do not have short term memories.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Who will primary him lol? He's the most popular republican senator right now, nearly the entire GOP machine is behind him to varying levels. He even has Rush and Hannity eating out his hands...
I've said before that I don't think he's a good politician, just that he's in the right place at the exact right time. Who knows, maybe things will go sour: perhaps republicans will realize Rubio's "plan" is literally Obama's 2008 plan, and it will set off a resurgence of far right extremism like 2009/2010 during health care. Perhaps 2014 will be dominated by Hispanics who heavily vote democrat, thus convincing conservatives that passing immigration reform was a bad idea. We can't really tell how Rubio will be perceived down the line, or what issues will be important. Chuck Hagel was seen as a major presidential candidate in 2005, for instance. A couple years later after a financial meltdown...his name was nowhere to be seen.
SouthernDragon
Member
Rubio attracting the Hispanic vote.
ahahahahahahahaha
ahahahahahahahaha
The Librarian
Banned
In light of PD's new prediction, I think it's only appropriate I post this: May 6th, 2012: The Day Obama Lost
PhoenixDark
Banned
Sorry, based on historical evidence he will get a good amount of the Hispanic vote simply due to his race. I'm not saying Hispanics are monolithic, just that we seen the same pattern with every other race, yours is not special (see Kennedy, Mario Cuomo, JC Watts, etc). By 2015/2016 his association with the tea party will be long over, he'll be moderating his stances, and he could have immigration reform under his belt.
TacticalFox88
Banned
Republicans won't "realize" that Rubio's plan is Obamas.
They don't even recognize the Healthcare reform they proposed a Decade and a half ago!
Could you name some Hispanic Republican races, along with numbers? Thanks.
edit: Here's one. Suzana Martinez got 38%. Any others?
CHEEZMO
Obsidian fan
Oh lordy lord.
Dominican Power
Member
What is this I'm hearing that congress is sabotaging The Postal Service?
Haha jesus christ this article is so bad. Back then it was bad too, yes, but now... wow
You see guys? We ALL knew it was only a matter of time!
They already did, in 2006. Required to prefund their pension and healthcare 75 years in advance over a 10 year period.
It's an anchor the Republicans attached to the USPS. No company funds pensions and plans for employees that aren't even born yet. It's the only reason they're struggling so hard right now.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Rubio got 55% of the Hispanic vote in 2010, and Brian Sandoval got around 35% in Nevada (which is around what you need to eek out a win nationally).
I felt like I was reading an Onion article...
Honestly, I've tried to read it and could never get through it. It's just dry and boring and every character is a strawman. We should be exposing kids to GOOD writing. To books they'll want to read. Books with characters that feel real and situations they can relate to. We should be putting more contemporary writers in the classroom, there are plenty of really good books being put out these days why hamstring them to a doorstop (because that's really what it's good for) like Atlas Shrugged?
Can't have a government agency actually doing a better and cheaper job than private industry, it might give people the idea that privatizing everything isn't the way to go.
Let's show everybody how great the free market is by forcing them to buy a book!
On the current topic at hand though, simply expecting more Hispanics to vote for Rubio because he's Cuban and speaks Spanish is Republican line of thinking. It's like people think black people only voted for Obama because he's black, while ignoring their overwhelming support of Gore and Kerry.
Florida's not really a good example for national. But you missed my edit for another: Martinez got 38% in NM.
Avon Barksdale
Member
Latinos/Hispanics in the Northeast aren't going to vote for a Republican (a Cuban from Miami nonetheless) just because he has a Spanish surname.
Trust me.
Trust me.
Particle Physicist
between a quark and a baryon
Rubio got 55% of the Hispabic vote in Florida where the majority of the Hispanics are Cubans. You seriously do not seem to understand how diverse Latinos are. Sandoval is Mexican American in Nevada. You cannot extrapolate like that at all. It's completely laughable.
Black Mamba
Member
Don't forget the next democrat will likely improve on the white vote too. Especially if it is Hillary.
Carpe Libertatem
Member
Not to mention it was a midterm election, which likely has lower turnout (presumably from non-Cuban hispanics and other Democratic voters, but that's beside the point)
Particle Physicist
between a quark and a baryon
Not just a Cuban, but a Cuban who has lied about how his family was persecuted, and who seems to be trying to speak for all Hispanics.
PhoenixDark
Banned
But could also lead to lower minority turnout/voting. A non-Obama democrat probably would have lost Ohio in November, that's how massive the black vote was there (especially in Chattanooga); I'm gonna go out on a limb and guess Andrew Cuomo won't inspire blacks to vote at that rate. But Hillary would get close to that.
All Rubio would need is 35-40% of the Hispanic vote against a non-Hillary candidate.
Link
The Autumn Wind
PD comes up with these ridiculous theories and predictions and then develops some kind of weird Stockholm Syndrome where he's convinced they're going to happen. I'd put him on ignore if he didn't just get quoted repeatedly anyway.
This is going to be a big thing. You can't just fake your personal story and get away with it on the national stage.
And yet the Florida media seemed to collectively shrug about that. I don't think it matters to Florida Cubans, even if I'd think it would.
And I won't be surprised if the media treats Rubio how conservatives delude themselves into thinking they treated Obama.
Black Mamba
Member
That wouldn't be enough still. Amount of youth vote has increased. Also elderly dying. Bush needed 44% of the Hispanic vote in 2004. There are more Hispanics now which means you need a higher percentage than what worked in the past.
Also your characterization of Ohio is hilarious since Obama can't win but now anyone else would lose. Hillary would have won by double figures there.
Also the minority turnout will not drop.
The center of this country has moved left the last 8 years. So long as the GOP doesn't move with then they're fucked. Rubio gaining 5 percentage points of Latinos won't fix that.
And best it will be a wash. Also Rubio getting only 55% of Latinos is fla is horrible. To look what bush got.
Particle Physicist
between a quark and a baryon
It matters to other Hispanics who already view Cuban Americans as privaledged.
Huh. You're right. One point worse than Bush. Not very impressive.
I hope you're right. I don't
(non-jokingly)
Dunno about you guys, but my high school never mentioned that book even once throughout my entire time. I hadn't even heard of it until I started my first year of college, and even then the only reason I was aware of it was cause there was a bunch of different organizations were offering scholarships based on writing an essay on the book. I remember thinking during the time that the book had to have been amazing otherwise no one would bother mentioning it. lol
The Librarian
Banned
Clevinger, you're having a moment.
Thing is that Rubio still has to make it through the Republican primary process. It'll be a bit of a different ball game next time, obviously, but still that's what fucks over Republicans nowadays. He's going to have to prove himself to what is still mostly a bunch of old white dudes. Republicans have to pander so hard to the right that eventually they say something stupid or won't answer something that looks stupid. I've already seen Rubio get wishy washy on stupid shit in interviews just to try and pander and play both sides and not look so bad. That sort of crap doesn't really work in the primary process or even on the grander stage.
I don't exactly walk to "show me your papers" looking people and ask them to talk about Rubio (I would imagine I would be mighty pissed if someone came to me and started talking about Lieberman), but the couple of mexican americans I did talk about him with downright resented the notion that they should automatically like him because he's "brown" (I think I quote more or less accurately, but I might be racist).
But they're the type of people who resent the term 'hispanic', so I'm not sure how representative they are of the general population.
Edit: yeah, about the whole drone memo thing, finally read it all up, fuck, congress need to man the fuck up and slap the white house.
The executive branch has gone mad.
This is bigger than the fucking debt ceiling.
Edit2: fuck lawyers, seriously.
Yeah, and the thing is that I think if Rubio does indeed win the primary it'd definitely be on the back of the republican base thinking "Hey, those brown people will like this dude! He's one of them! They have to vote for him just like the darker brown people voted for Obama!" It's a dynamic that, I think, brings that issue to the forefront and would force that block to really think about him in that particular light. With Obama he wasn't pushed into winner status because people thought he would automatically win the black vote or because he would automatically win the other side (contrary, actually!). So the point of pride was "hey one of our guys is making it on his own merits. Let's help support him."
I just think in the primary process it's going to be incredibly obvious that the party is picking him because he's hispanic to appeal to other hispanics. And mark my words, stupid things will be said. On fox and on the radio. And hispanics aren't going to not hear those stupid things.
Oh yes. This has very much happened before. Look at defenses of any black conservative. At the first whiff of someone on the left floating that kind of talk, Fox and friends will go into all-out reverse racism mode. 24 hours later everyone on the right will be yelling about how horrible it is to call Rubio an Uncle Tom and how the fact that he's not polling at 90% with Hispanics the way Obama did with blacks just shows how Democrats, the real racists, have fooled Hispanics.
They just love being mad too much. They could try to win Hispanics, and as part of that they could promote Hispanic Republicans. Or they could throw Hispanic Republicans out there and then immediately get mad at Hispanics for not seeing that Republicans like Hispanics now.
Black Mamba
Member
Why would Rubio have a hard time in the primaries? Isn't he pretty far right (moreso than say Mitt romney) except for immigration?
Christie has the primary problem.
I don't think the GOP has a problem voting for a minority they view as an uncle tom (not saying Rubio is one, saying this might be how some in the GOP view him).
Christie has the primary problem.
I don't think the GOP has a problem voting for a minority they view as an uncle tom (not saying Rubio is one, saying this might be how some in the GOP view him).
PhoenixDark
Banned
Rubio will probably be fine in the primaries. Immigration is the only issue he hasn't carried water for conservatives on...and so far they've been carrying the water for him on it. Whereas Christie is in violation of a host of things, plus probably will have a weak economic record.
Fox has done such a good job convincing old white people that hispanics and other 'others' are taking over the country. Do you really think they'll vote for one of those very 'others' in the primary? Maybe in Florida, but just about everywhere else Rubio is screwed.
speculawyer
Member
WTF?
1) It cracks me up how much the GOP has decided to worship an atheist.
2) Is a law forcing people to read a specific book pretty much the exact opposite of being Libertarian? He didn't "get it".
Oh . . . who gives a fuck about 2016?
Yeah, but the fact that he might not have a hard time int he primaries spells his doom later. If it's anything remotely near what we just witnessed, that's the whole problem. The primaries push people to the right. Right wing candidates aren't going to win anymore, because they say stupid things (in the primaries) and believe stupid things.
So I'm not saying he'll have a problem in the primary. I'm saying the primary will be the problem if he gets to the general election. And it will be for probably anyone that comes out of it, still.
Rocket Scientist
Member
Why are you guys getting me excited for 2016? I really want to see Rubio fail hard now. The GOP just showed that they learned absolutely nothing from the election and some here are implying that they'll nominate and come out in support of Rubio... If Rubio is nominated white republicans are going to vote for the white Democrat just as white racist democrats voted Republican when Obama was nominated. You guys really have no idea what goes on in the minds of racists.
The Republican base voted for a fucking Mormon. They aren't democrats, they do what they're told in presidential nominations and voting.
Rocket Scientist
Member
You're acting as if Romney went around and wore his Mormonism on his sleeve. It was a miniscule part of the election. Rubio can't white out his skin color or the topics he's going to want to discuss to hold onto any Hispanic vote.
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