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[B-Dubs]

Agreed. Brown was a classic MA republican who could have survived for awhile if not for the extremism of the national GOP. He's still well liked in MA, he's charismatic, etc. I was concerned about Warren in terms of her retail politics acumen, ie how she was connecting on the stump, at events, etc; what I saw wasn't impressive early in 2012. But she improved over time, held her own in the debates, and Brown made himself look like a fool with the Native American insults.

I didn't anticipate democrat turnout being as explosive as it was in MA, or her winning them by such a large margin; I honestly thought Brown could win just enough dems to sneak out a win.

You didn't expect good Democratic turn out in one of the bluest states in the union? :LOL

 

[Clevinger]

i'd say slim to none. afterall, preparations are afoot...

http://www.politico.com/politico44/...ns-underway-for-obama-vacation-on-158744.html

 

[Tristam]

Except it avoids the basic fault of Obama care still having healthcare linked to employment.

It's not as though that's a function of Obamacare--our shit healthcare system evolved that way. I don't think you'll find anyone in Poligaf who actually supports employer-provided healthcare -- it gives employees less bargaining power and is awful for job mobility.

Of course, the bigger problem with the healthcare system in general (which Obamacare only addresses peripherally) is the practice of hospitals marking shit up 500-1,000%. Time just had a good article on it.

 

[Aaron Strife]

I was depressed because he seemed to be the next Olympia Snowe, a red seat in a deep blue ink state for a very long time. I was also mad at Democrats for being extremely dumb with Martha Coakley. They were treating all her appearances as victory rallies. Warren, as awesome as she is in the legislature, wasn't the most inspiring and charismatic candidate either. I think me and others (PD) who were apprehensive about the whole thing weren't being unreasonable.

Don't get me wrong, he was the strongest possible Republican they could have put up, and it was always going to be relatively close. But if you go back to early 2011, you'd see Democratic politicians in Boston shitting on candidates (including Warren) left and right while ball-washing Scott Brown. I think this attitude persisted even as polls started to consistently show Warren in the lead, which was around Labor Day of 2012.

Agreed. Brown was a classic MA republican who could have survived for awhile if not for the extremism of the national GOP. He's still well liked in MA, he's charismatic, etc. I was concerned about Warren in terms of her retail politics acumen, ie how she was connecting on the stump, at events, etc; what I saw wasn't impressive early in 2012. But she improved over time, held her own in the debates, and Brown made himself look like a fool with the Native American insults.

I didn't anticipate democrat turnout being as explosive as it was in MA, or her winning them by such a large margin; I honestly thought Brown could win just enough dems to sneak out a win.

My problem is moreso with the attitude that went about the race. Sure, you could call it a toss-up and assume Brown had a decent chance of winning, but "sneaking out a win" is hardly the same as "Scott Brown has it on lockdown." (not that it was just you but I like that quote)

Then again, Beltway Conventional Wisdom(TM) always seems to overstate Republicans' chances of winning. They practically fucking coronated Tommy Thompson as King of Wisconsin in August.

Hey, who else in PoliGAF is in the Twin Cities area? (looking at signature #2)

What's up. I haven't signed the petition though.

 

[The Technomancer]

waves

*fistbro*

What's up. I haven't signed the petition though.

We got four. Sweet!

 

[RustyNails]

You didn't expect good Democratic turn out in one of the bluest states in the union? :LOL

MA turnout was about the same as it was in 2008, which is fine, but not upsetting. Illinois on the other hand had a higher turnout.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Then again, Beltway Conventional Wisdom(TM) always seems to overstate Republicans' chances of winning. They practically fucking coronated Tommy Thompson as King of Wisconsin in August.

Thompson looked pretty good for awhile, and there was a legitimate question as to whether Wisconsin would elect an openly gay senator. Thompson was fucked due to having no money and the Medicare comment sealed his fate in September.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Thompson looked pretty good for awhile, and there was a legitimate question as to whether Wisconsin would elect an openly gay senator. Thompson was fucked due to having no money and the Medicare comment sealed his fate in September.

In fairness a lot of this was also tied into the idea that Romney would make Wisconsin a toss-up state, which also turned out to be bullshit. Obama was never in any real danger of losing it. But then again, he was never in danger of losing Michigan, Minnesota or Pennsylvania but that didn't stop GOP pundits boldly proclaiming a Romney victory in those states.

I wonder how Thompson would have fared against Feingold. If he really wanted to be senator 2010 was probably his year. You can probably ascribe most of my early feelings about the race to blind hope, but I do recall Thompson's lack of funds and out-of-touch comments/positions being a problem even during the primary and no one listened.

 

[PhoenixDark]

In fairness a lot of this was also tied into the idea that Romney would make Wisconsin a toss-up state, which also turned out to be bullshit. Obama was never in any real danger of losing it. But then again, he was never in danger of losing Michigan, Minnesota or Pennsylvania but that didn't stop GOP pundits boldly proclaiming a Romney victory in those states.

I wonder how Thompson would have fared against Feingold. If he really wanted to be senator 2010 was probably his year. You can probably ascribe most of my early feelings about the race to blind hope, but I do recall Thompson's lack of funds and out-of-touch comments/positions being a problem even during the primary and no one listened.

Well he was the least crazy major candidate in the primary, and the most electable. It's not surprising that he won given his name recognition and initial popularity. And the funds problem was moreso him having to waste a lot of money to win the primary against well funded loons.

He's also a an example of Rove's current strategy being bullshit. Establishment candidates don't always win, in fact most of them did pretty bad in 2012. Establishment republicans were uniformly anti-Obama, which meant they were against his Afghanistan withdrawal, against Obamacare on every level, against a "balanced" tax policy, etc; basically all the issues voters were for. It's hard for them to win national elections when you can't carve up a state into favorable pockets of old white people, and I think that will continue. Dems will certainly lose senate seats in 2014 but I think they'll do quite good in blue and light red races. The GOP is simply too extreme, and that includes the establishment candidates.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Well he was the least crazy major candidate in the primary, and the most electable. It's not surprising that he won given his name recognition and initial popularity. And the funds problem was moreso him having to waste a lot of money to win the primary against well funded loons.

He's also a an example of Rove's current strategy being bullshit. Establishment candidates don't always win, in fact most of them did pretty bad in 2012. Establishment republicans were uniformly anti-Obama, which meant they were against his Afghanistan withdrawal, against Obamacare on every level, against a "balanced" tax policy, etc; basically all the issues voters were for. It's hard for them to win national elections when you can't carve up a state into favorable pockets of old white people, and I think that will continue. Dems will certainly lose senate seats in 2014 but I think they'll do quite good in blue and light red races. The GOP is simply too extreme, and that includes the establishment candidates.

Hope you're right about 2014. There are plenty of worrying seats (Arkansas, West Virginia, Louisiana, Montana, North Carolina, South Dakota) but Democrats seem to be polling okay for now. Not worried about Iowa or Michigan. Georgia could be a great pickup if Republicans put up a bad candidate and Democrats a good one, like John Barrow.

 

[The Librarian]

Kay Hagan's safe.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Kay Hagan's safe.

Is she? New poll somewhere?

 

[el retorno]

Is she? New poll somewhere?

Isn't dax from NC?

 

[The Librarian]

Yes I am.

Kay Hagan is pretty unique among Democrats from conservative states. She has to toe the line carefully like every one of them, but she hasn't been annoying like Bill Nelson, Blanche Lincoln, Max Baucus, Joe Manchin (among others) are/were.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Raleigh, N.C. – Kay Hagan leads nine possible Republican Senate candidates for the 2014 race by five to 15 points, according to PPP’s latest North Carolina poll.

Every hypothetical GOP challenger trails Hagan. She leads Patrick McHenry 45/40, Cherie Berry 46/38, Thom Tillis 46/38, Renee Ellmers 47/38, Virginia Foxx 48/38, George Holding 46/36, Phil Berger 49/38, Greg Brannon 48/35 and Terry Embler 48/33.

39% of voters approve of Hagan’s job performance while 38% disapprove and 23% are not sure. 46% of moderates approve of Hagan’s performance to 26% who disapprove. The big shift for Hagan since January is that she is consolidating Democratic support but disapproval from independent voters has increased. 64% of Democrats now approve of Hagan’s job performance compared to only 49% in January. But independents are split 28% approving to 48% disapproving compared to 31% to 34% a month ago.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/kay-hagan/

It'll depend on the economy, Obama's popularity, and of course turnout. NC is in the shitter economy wise right now, if things are better next year than I'd imagine she'll win. Of course she could also be blessed by good luck and face an extremist like Virginia Fox.

And Obamacare will be in effect so we may see a variety of states reacting to its successes or failures

 

[Aaron Strife]

Yes I am.

Kay Hagan is pretty unique among Democrats from conservative states. She has to toe the line carefully like every one of them, but she hasn't been annoying like Bill Nelson, Blanche Lincoln, Max Baucus, Joe Manchin (among others) are/were.

It helps that NC is transitioning into a blue state, as opposed to those other states where people are getting more red on a federal level. Even Richard Burr is fairly moderate by Republican standards, from what I can tell.

 

[el retorno]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/kay-hagan/

It'll depend on the economy, Obama's popularity, and of course turnout. NC is in the shitter economy wise right now, if things are better next year than I'd imagine she'll win. Of course she could also be blessed by good luck and face an extremist like Virginia Fox.

Those sound like great numbers in a place like NC for a democratic senator with congress the way it is now

 

[The Librarian]

Burr's a nobody.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Isn't dax from NC?

So am I!

Those are great numbers for Kay, love her.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Ashley Judd Senate Run: Actress, Activist Planning To Declare Candidacy, Sources Say

Gonna make my bold prediction and say she beats McConnell. See if that magic from 2012 still works. Wocka wocka doo doo yeah.

 

[Oblivion]

Shocking: Republican against medicaid had medicaid pay for his deceased little brother's hospital bills:

Weatherford told House members on Tuesday that he opposed the expansion because it crossed the line of “proper government.” He shared an emotional story about his brother Peter, who died at 20-months in 1995 when he was 15.

His medical care was too expensive for his family to afford, but a “safety net” helped out, he said.

Weatherford, however, didn’t describe what that safety net was. When reached by the Times/Herald after the speech, Weatherford’s father said Medicaid paid more than $100,000 in costs.

http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-b...t-that-medicaid-covered-medical-bills/2107399

Goddamn 20 month old cancer stricken welfare queens.

 

[el retorno]

Ashley Judd Senate Run: Actress, Activist Planning To Declare Candidacy, Sources Say

Gonna make my bold prediction and say she beats McConnell. See if that magic from 2012 still works. Wocka wocka doo doo yeah.

I feel like she's said some things that aren't gonna fly in Kentucky. And will be effectively painted as a carpetbagger

Know nothing about the state though.

I think she's got a shot though because she does have some charm and I think she can use that effectively to combat those charges

 

[speculawyer]

Ashley Judd Senate Run: Actress, Activist Planning To Declare Candidacy, Sources Say

Gonna make my bold prediction and say she beats McConnell. See if that magic from 2012 still works. Wocka wocka doo doo yeah.

I have no idea if she can do it.

But she's got charm, she'll pick up some of the women vote on identity politics, and she seems reasonably down-to-earth.

 

[fallagin]

Shocking: Republican against medicaid had medicaid pay for his deceased little brother's hospital bills:



http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-b...t-that-medicaid-covered-medical-bills/2107399

Goddamn 13 month old cancer stricken welfare queens.

God fucking dammit. These fucks can lie all they want without any goddamn repercussions among the press. Disgusting.

 

[RustyNails]

Ashley Judd Senate Run: Actress, Activist Planning To Declare Candidacy, Sources Say

Gonna make my bold prediction and say she beats McConnell. See if that magic from 2012 still works. Wocka wocka doo doo yeah.

She will be painted as out of touch liberal Hollywood elite that wants to establish drive-thru abortions and teach gay sex in 3rd grades. Knowing Kentucky, they will probably succeed.

Of course it will please me tremendously if I don't have to see turtle man's face for the next 6 years, but Democrats' got their work cut out for them. Rove is gonna blitzkrieg the state.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Judd has 0 chance, given some of the stuff she has said ("I'll go wherever the president wants me to go"). Come on people, we're talking about Kentucky not Virginia

 

[speculawyer]

She will be painted as out of touch liberal Hollywood elite that wants to establish drive-thru abortions and teach gay sex in 3rd grades. Knowing Kentucky, they will probably succeed.

Of course it will please me tremendously if I don't have to see turtle man's face for the next 6 years, but Democrats' got their work cut out for them. Rove is gonna blitzkrieg the state.

If that is the way they run their campaign then she might win.

 

[Black Mamba]

Judd has 0 chance, given some of the stuff she has said ("I'll go wherever the president wants me to go"). Come on people, we're talking about Kentucky not Virginia

smart money is on judd confirmed.

The Konex of poli-gaf indeed.

 

[Aaron Strife]

She will be painted as out of touch liberal Hollywood elite that wants to establish drive-thru abortions and teach gay sex in 3rd grades. Knowing Kentucky, they will probably succeed.

Of course it will please me tremendously if I don't have to see the turtle man's face for the next 6 years, but Democrats' got their work cut out for them. Rove is gonna blitzkrieg the state.

If nothing else, having to compete in Kentucky would distract Republicans from other pickup opportunities.

Also, Rove tried to blitzkrieg 2012 and it was disastrous. The only close Senate race won by a Republican was Nevada. Dems gained seats when they should have lost.

 

[PhoenixDark]

If nothing else, having to compete in Kentucky would distract Republicans from other pickup opportunities.

Also, Rove tried to blitzkrieg 2012 and it was disastrous. The only close Senate race won by a Republican was Nevada. Dems gained seats when they should have lost.

McConnell has a lot of money in his war chest, as senate minority leader. I don't think his race will require a lot of outside money at the expense of other candidates.

 

[Aaron Strife]

McConnell has a lot of money in his war chest, as senate minority leader. I don't think his race will require a lot of outside money at the expense of other candidates.

It works for McConnell too. Every dollar he spends defending himself is money he can't funnel into other campaigns.

 

[Black Mamba]

You do realize that Rove is already running ads against Judd, right?

 

[RustyNails]

You do realize that Rove is already running ads against Judd, right?

Yup. He knows what's up. Although the silver lining is that if Democrats can paint McConnell as the face of Washington gridlock, they can win. But I will bet 100% that they will make this a social issues race.

If nothing else, having to compete in Kentucky would distract Republicans from other pickup opportunities.

Don't underestimate the depth of pockets of Karl's moneymen. They be deep. But yeah, as an added distraction, it should help Democrats in other smaller pickups.

 

[PhoenixDark]

You do realize that Rove is already running ads against Judd, right?

Not long ago we were making fun of him for wasting money doing that.

 

[Black Mamba]

We still are.

FWIW, more money for an incumbent being spent usually means they're doing poorly.

 

[Baraka in the White House]

God I'd spring a massive boner if McConnell went down.

 

[Hitokage]

It helps that NC is transitioning into a blue state, as opposed to those other states where people are getting more red on a federal level. Even Richard Burr is fairly moderate by Republican standards, from what I can tell.

NC is a long-term project. The raw numbers are looking favorable, but the state government just went entirely red and the district maps are gerrymandered to hell.

 

[Avon Barksdale]

Is she? New poll somewhere?

PPP is going to release a new NC poll this coming week.

 

[Jooney]

Michael Steele is black, Prince Reibus is an extra-dimensional imp.

Honestly I was hoping for a better explanation, but really I can't seem to find anything else other than race.

 

[B-Dubs]

Honestly I was hoping for a better explanation, but really I can't seem to find anything else other than race.

I feel like it's thst Steele was more moderate. If you watch interviews with him now he's very reasonable, odds are they felt he wouldn't fit with the Tea Party.

 

[kehs]

God I'd spring a massive boner if McConnell went down.

Glad that post ended where it did.

 

[Jooney]

Glad that post ended where it did.

If you allow man-on-man sex, then why not man-on-turtle?

The conservatives were right!

 

[Clevinger]

on me with his turtle mouth

 

[Gotchaye]

Honestly I was hoping for a better explanation, but really I can't seem to find anything else other than race.

Well, Steele was probably not the greatest fit to begin with. His race mattered, but it mattered for his whole tenure. He was clearly elected in the first place to be a charismatic black man to counter Obama, in basically the same way that Palin was obviously selected in part because of enthusiasm for Hillary. And once elected he was an unusually outspoken chairman, and said some embarrassing things - The Daily Show loved him even before he stepped down. So he didn't succeed at attracting new voters to the Republican party, which was basically the whole reason why he was elected and put in front of cameras. He also presided over the Tea Party takeover of the party, which the establishment was and is not happy about. The experiment of putting a black guy in charge and having him try to appeal directly to minority voters was written off as a failure and they went and found a more traditional RNC chair.

Plus there were several claims of managerial incompetence. It's probably not very useful to look purely at election results; no one thinks the RNC chairman is in the top 5 factors explaining 2010 and 2012.

 

[Oblivion]

Honestly I was hoping for a better explanation, but really I can't seem to find anything else other than race.

Incompetent fire breathing teabagger >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Effective moderate as far as Republicans are concerned. They will gladly take a loser who tows the conservative message appropriately over a winner who doesn't (see: Sarah Palin).

 

[Jooney]

Well, Steele was probably not the greatest fit to begin with. His race mattered, but it mattered for his whole tenure. He was clearly elected in the first place to be a charismatic black man to counter Obama, in basically the same way that Palin was obviously selected in part because of enthusiasm for Hillary. And once elected he was an unusually outspoken chairman, and said some embarrassing things - The Daily Show loved him even before he stepped down. So he didn't succeed at attracting new voters to the Republican party, which was basically the whole reason why he was elected and put in front of cameras. He also presided over the Tea Party takeover of the party, which the establishment was and is not happy about. The experiment of putting a black guy in charge and having him try to appeal directly to minority voters was written off as a failure and they went and found a more traditional RNC chair.

Plus there were several claims of managerial incompetence. It's probably not very useful to look purely at election results; no one thinks the RNC chairman is in the top 5 factors explaining 2010 and 2012.

Thanks. I heard some talk of him being bad with the committee finances, but if you look at pure outcomes he oversaw the blunting of the Obama agenda, while priebus has lost ground in both the house and the senate ... Yet he keeps his job.

 

[B-Dubs]

Incompetent fire breathing teabagger >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Effective moderate as far as Republicans are concerned. They will gladly take a loser who tows the conservative message appropriately over a winner who doesn't (see: Sarah Palin).

Pretty much.

Thanks. I heard some talk of him being bad with the committee finances, but if you look at pure outcomes he oversaw the blunting of the Obama agenda, while priebus has lost ground in both the house and the senate ... Yet he keeps his job.

No one has tricked him into saying his name backwards yet is all.

 

[PhoenixDark]

We still are.

FWIW, more money for an incumbent being spent usually means they're doing poorly.

Not in this case. It's typical "make fun of the liberal" shit from Rove. She's going to get beat regardless, so what better thing to do than spend a bit of money early and then claim you were a deciding factor in the victory. At least, that's what he'll be explaining to donors after republicans fail to take the senate.

 

[Clevinger]

Not in this case. It's typical "make fun of the liberal" shit from Rove.

His donors must love that! Especially after all the money of theirs he wasted in the last election.

 

[Gotchaye]

The thinking could be to try to boost other races in the state. Judd is an especially soft target, and attacks on Democrat Senate candidate Ashley Judd probably reduce support for other Democrats in the state.

Attacks on Judd may make sense even if she's not going to win the nomination, and could still help McConnell keep his seat against a different, more competitive Democrat.