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PoliGAF 2013 |OT1| Never mind, Wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
- Thread starter ClovingWestbrook
- Start date
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Caves on dividend and capital gains rates. Makes NO progress on estate taxes and in fact lowers them permenantly. Raises ~ 1/2 the revenue of Obama's original offer, which he will presumably have to find via spending cuts now that the tax issues are getting settled. That will hurt a lot of people and the economy long term.
Squandered his best bargaining chip for nothing in return.
Caveat that the deal is not final here -------------------> *
thanks
HerbertFish
Member
I know this is hard for some here, but how we actually worry about the effects of the deal rather than the perception of what politicians may or may not look like. I've been guilty of it too, but it's sad that it is almost the bigger story here.
That is their purpose.
Everybody seems be going off the HuffPo:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mobileweb/2012/12/31/fiscal-cliff-deal_n_2388823.html?1356976452
Summary is $600-$800 billion in revenue (depending on some assumptions), $100 in continued stimulus, and...that's it.
Black Republican
Member
GOP obviously upset at the 'tone' of Obama's presser
#confused
if it doesnt pass, whos up for making a new thread with gifs of laughter/ lolzness?
Fragamemnon
Member
The only hesitation I think the left has is over the debt ceiling. We are OK with the following case:
- Obama stands firm and forces Bohner's shitburger crew to come up with an actual bill with entitlement cuts for the debt ceiling and present it to Obama. Boehner would never be able to come up with anything that the public wouldn't hate and then Obama goes " OK, since you got nothing, pass the debt ceiling with no strings attached".
They are not OK with the following case, which terrifies us:
- Obama gets into negotiation over entitlement cuts for the debt ceiling-treating it as something to be negotiated for-and in the end Democrats are left "owning" unpopular cuts to Medicare, SS, and Medicaid as the final bill still gets rejected by a majority of the the extreme GOP House and Senate (but still passes due to Obama-pressured Dems+the few moderate GOP left).
Dems don't trust Obama enough to not do the latter after what went down in 2011.
- Obama stands firm and forces Bohner's shitburger crew to come up with an actual bill with entitlement cuts for the debt ceiling and present it to Obama. Boehner would never be able to come up with anything that the public wouldn't hate and then Obama goes " OK, since you got nothing, pass the debt ceiling with no strings attached".
They are not OK with the following case, which terrifies us:
- Obama gets into negotiation over entitlement cuts for the debt ceiling-treating it as something to be negotiated for-and in the end Democrats are left "owning" unpopular cuts to Medicare, SS, and Medicaid as the final bill still gets rejected by a majority of the the extreme GOP House and Senate (but still passes due to Obama-pressured Dems+the few moderate GOP left).
Dems don't trust Obama enough to not do the latter after what went down in 2011.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Did any of these yokels whine when Boehner took himself out of the negotiations process?
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
Maybe Obama wanted to sabatoge the deal himself by making that presser. Piss off the GOP and have the scuttle it themselves.
soul creator
Member
Try saddened, please. It'll give us a little break from the bitter angry old fuck McCain.
Well duh, we already know what FEMA's up to.
el retorno
Member
The GOP is mad they got their feelings hurt.
https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/285828919410704384
https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/285828919410704384
Black Mamba
Member
What is the stimulus?
LoftyTheMetroid
Member
Well, at least we know Obama has good taste in gaming.
But seriously, not as bad of a deal as I thought it would be. Although, I still wish the Republicans would receive a bit more punishment for all of their economic terrorist tactics...
But seriously, not as bad of a deal as I thought it would be. Although, I still wish the Republicans would receive a bit more punishment for all of their economic terrorist tactics...
el retorno
Member
Well, at least we know Obama has good taste in gaming.
?
Manmademan
Member
Well, at least we know Obama has good taste in gaming.
But seriously, not as bad of a deal as I thought it would be. Although, I still wish the Republicans would receive a bit more punishment for all of their economic terrorist tactics...
what is that?
HerbertFish
Member
Cave Story?
Basically that the spending cuts that would have presumably come later would also have to come with revenue.
CoffeeJanitor
Member
Cave Story
So they're crying over nothing then.
Black Republican
Member
this motherf....
Aaron Strife
Banned
Who does this president of the United States think he is!?
He goes where McCain goes.Black Republican said:
The Librarian
Banned
In another round of "What doesn't?", via Dylan Matthews, Lindsey Graham says this deal brings us closer to Greece.
I don't think this is going to pass. Even f it gets through the Senate, I can't imagine how Boehner justifies to his caucus bringing it to the floor. "Hey, guys, we should vote for this, but it only raises revenue and continues stimulative tax expenditures."
I don't think this is going to pass. Even f it gets through the Senate, I can't imagine how Boehner justifies to his caucus bringing it to the floor. "Hey, guys, we should vote for this, but it only raises revenue and continues stimulative tax expenditures."
Obama knows what he's doing.
Black Republican
Member
despite the gerrymandering, the gop 2014 primaries should be interesting
If this does get through Congress, Obama is viewed as someone who was willing to compromise in order to get things done. If it doesn't, Obama can point to how moderate many of his proposals were and say that Republicans are protecting rich people. Polls indicate that Republicans are going to get the blame for this deal falling through if it does. It doesn't really matter if liberals or conservatives like every element of proposed comprimises; Obama wins the long game either way.
More along the lines of moderate liberals whining about a Democrat president governing like a moderate conservative.
indeed
Unemployment extension and a five-year extension of the stimulative tax credits from 2009 (EITC expansion, child tax credit, tuition credit).
The Librarian
Banned
How is this bill moderately conservative?
Yep, this thread is definitely mirrors 2009/2010 PoliGAF threads.
Obama isn't fighting to return all taxes to 1960s rates. What a wimp.
It makes the estate tax cuts, the dividends tax cuts and most of Bush's tax cuts for the rich permanent, which they weren't before.
I don't think it's the end of the world, but it's strongly codify a supply side approach to our economic problems, which was considered fringe position even in the GOP as late as 1980.
Black Republican
Member
live GOP senators crying, watch if you want
http://www.c-span.org/Events/Fiscal-Cliff-Negotiations-Continue-in-Congress/10737436933-1/
http://www.c-span.org/Events/Fiscal-Cliff-Negotiations-Continue-in-Congress/10737436933-1/
empty vessel
Member
Nope. The problem with it is that it is still a contractionary fiscal policy position during a weak recession. Yes, some of the net reduction in spending is placed on higher income earners where it can do less damage, but a big chunk of it isn't. Where is the extension of the payroll tax cut?
Americans are all but certain to face a broad hike in taxes on Tuesday for the first time in at least two decades, ending a prolonged period of declining taxation that has become a defining characteristic of the American economy.
Regardless of whether President Obama and Congress reach an agreement to avoid the “fiscal cliff,” many Americans will see a higher tax bill because of the expiration of the payroll tax cut, which was enacted in 2011 as a temporary measure to boost economic growth. The tax holiday was preceded by a similar temporary cut in 2009 and 2010.
Lawmakers on Monday morning were locked in negotiations trying to close a deal that would, in part, prevent a separate tax — the income tax — from rising for all but the wealthiest taxpayers.
Unlike income taxes, which rise along with a worker’s income, the payroll tax is a fixed percentage of an employee’s salary. Allowing the tax cut to expire will increase taxes on salaries by 2 percent for every American worker. Up to $110,100 a year in salary is subject to the tax.
This jump in payroll taxes, combined with other tax increases affecting the very wealthy likely to take effect in the new year, would make for the largest increase in taxes in about half a century. ...
Because of the expiry of the payroll tax cut, a worker earning $50,000, for instance, would pay $1,000 more in taxes next year; meanwhile, a worker earning less than $20,000 a year would pay about $100 more in taxes. Someone in the upper fifth of households, making $150,000 a year, will pay about $2,200 more.
Regardless of whether President Obama and Congress reach an agreement to avoid the “fiscal cliff,” many Americans will see a higher tax bill because of the expiration of the payroll tax cut, which was enacted in 2011 as a temporary measure to boost economic growth. The tax holiday was preceded by a similar temporary cut in 2009 and 2010.
Lawmakers on Monday morning were locked in negotiations trying to close a deal that would, in part, prevent a separate tax — the income tax — from rising for all but the wealthiest taxpayers.
Unlike income taxes, which rise along with a worker’s income, the payroll tax is a fixed percentage of an employee’s salary. Allowing the tax cut to expire will increase taxes on salaries by 2 percent for every American worker. Up to $110,100 a year in salary is subject to the tax.
This jump in payroll taxes, combined with other tax increases affecting the very wealthy likely to take effect in the new year, would make for the largest increase in taxes in about half a century. ...
Because of the expiry of the payroll tax cut, a worker earning $50,000, for instance, would pay $1,000 more in taxes next year; meanwhile, a worker earning less than $20,000 a year would pay about $100 more in taxes. Someone in the upper fifth of households, making $150,000 a year, will pay about $2,200 more.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...d4bf0a-5259-11e2-8b49-64675006147f_story.html
And:
JPMorgan estimates that the payroll tax hike "will reduce U.S. disposable income by $125 billion," which would be a drag on consumer spending and could reduce GDP growth by over half of a percent next year.
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505123_162-57559808/will-the-2-social-security-payroll-tax-cut-expire/
Republicans apparently aren't opposed to all tax increases. None that I am aware of is opposed to raising this regressive tax. The net reduction in spending agreed to still has a very good chance to increase deficits rather than reduce them as tax receipts fall due to the damage inflicted on the economy.
Not to mention that the contours of the deals being floated do not resolve the spending cuts that are still on the books, which add further to the net reduction in spending. If permanent tax cuts for the rich are part of this deal, then it stands to reason that a good deal would also permanently resolve the needless spending cuts. Kicking them down the road while giving away permanent tax cuts to the rich (while raising taxes on working lower and middle class people) is a bad deal.
It's extremely conservative, almost insanely so. It slashes net government spending when unemployment is near 8%.
el retorno
Member
I don't feel bad
This is what I don't get. Why is the payroll tax cut dropped without much of a fight from anyone at all? Most of these assholes' constituents benefit from this, whereas most don't benefit from a tax cut of $250,000+. It's insane they're getting away with this.
Ezra Klein has two writeups on why either side thinks they won the deal:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...te-house-thinks-its-winning-the-fiscal-cliff/
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...licans-think-theyre-winning-the-fiscal-cliff/
That makes it harder, really. Slavery is a moral blight on the nation. Regressive taxation, while wrong, doesn't really rise to the same level. It's much easier to get people to come together against an obvious moral crime than it is to explain to them why progressive income redistribution will fight the stultifying effects of American stratification.
No. Obama wanted to raise capital gains to 20%. That's exactly what's in the deal. You might have wanted to raise them by more than that, but he campaigned on 20% and he's delivering on that. Dividends, I'll grant you.
What are you talking about? The deal raises estate taxes from 35% to 40%. It doesn't raise them to the Clinton level, but again, nobody in DC actually wanted to do that.
Why would you presume this? I don't understand this thought process at all. If this is how people think, no wonder Obama doesn't usually ask for the farm in his opening bid -- every time he takes something off the table, liberals assume he'll have to pay for it by cutting Medicare. That's not how it works. Obama's original offer was deliberately inflated, that's the purpose of negotiation.
Klein tweeted two weeks ago that, for reasons completely unknown to anybody, Reid and Pelosi both don't like the payroll tax cut. Given that, it's no surprise that it's going away, although I agree that it would've been the best choice of stimulus.
el retorno
Member
LOL at Corker practically begging obama to name cuts so they don't have to.
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