One major (idiotic, but major) difference is that the new Congress only has the option of voting for tax cuts. This Congress is currently voting for selective tax extensions, which Republicans worry could frame them as tax raisers, even though doing nothing raises taxes.
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PoliGAF 2013 |OT1| Never mind, Wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
- Thread starter ClovingWestbrook
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One major (idiotic, but major) difference is that the new Congress only has the option of voting for tax cuts. This Congress is currently voting for selective tax extensions, which Republicans worry could frame them as tax raisers, even though doing nothing raises taxes.
Doesn't need to be when Republicans will get all of that and probably more when they take the debt ceiling hostage again since this..."compromise" doesn't do a damn thing about that.
It's either one of these:
1. Obama cares about his big deal making, bipartisan legacy more than anything else. Averting the fiscal cliff "crisis" by reaching across the isle and making a Big Deal is a huge win for that horseshit
2. As a lot of liberals think, he's conservative not just in foreign policy but in welfare/spending as well
I think it's 1. It's all about his stupid legacy.
NullPointer
Member
Seriously.
The House GOP will fix that when the debt ceiling comes. Expect a bloodbath.
PhoenixDark
Banned
He gave it up in 2011; highly unlikely to be apart of any future negotiations though.
This deal just means we will continue to deal with threats to Medicare while coddling the rich. If we can't get the tax increases people want after a definitive election, when can we get them? All we're doing is legitimizing the meme that entitlement cuts are a bigger priority than letting rich people pass money to their kids, or dividend taxes, etc.
Get ready for more hostage taking with the debt ceiling. Obama has proven that he is unable to negotiate anything. Either he is simply incompetent or he has few guiding idealogical principles beyond getting something passed. Which is what I have argued for two years now.
I expect a declaration that it's unconstitutional.
I expect nothing of the sort... here we go bloodbath 
ClovingWestbrook
Banned
4% is squeezing the rich? Hahaha
Dr. Pangloss
Member
You're talking about income tax rates that few millionaires even pay. The capital gains tax rate in this deal is being increased from 15% to 20%, a full 33% increase. And you never even said what the whole point of taking their money is for. What are you trying to achieve anyway with this additional revenue that this deal doesn't already accomplish.
The problem with only raising $715b in revenue is Obama would then be pressed to find the balance of his own target in spending cuts. Obama set a high revenue target specifically to avoid doing so.
I will be so pissed if the debt ceiling shit gets big again. So seriously pissed.... This crap, the fiscal cliff and that, is not good for the economy at all. It's economic terrorism. I graduated right into the recession, and now I've finally climbed up enough to get a decent resume built and this crap keeps happening. I've seen job postings drop recently, likely because no one knows what the hell's happening anymore.
Seriously, when the biggest threat to the economy is congress itself, you've got a problem...
Seriously, when the biggest threat to the economy is congress itself, you've got a problem...
Gives up what? His presidency as a concession? Not out of the realm of possibility.
TacticalFox88
Banned
http://www.whitehouse.gov/live/president-obama-speaks-fiscal-cliff-0
If anyone wants a link to when Obama speaks here it is.
If anyone wants a link to when Obama speaks here it is.
el retorno
Member
Obama is so happy with congress' performance he's giving them a pay raise
He'll impeach himself out of respect and bipartisianship
You need to appease the job creator gods more. Stop being a leech
He'll impeach himself out of respect and bipartisianship
You need to appease the job creator gods more. Stop being a leech
PhoenixDark
Banned
Another thing: this notion that getting unemployment benefits in the deal is a "win" reminds me of that Chris Rock bit about fathers wanting credit for shit they're supposed to do. There should be no back patting over this. Obama can't use the bully pulpit to demand an extension? A prime time address? Or at worse, start issuing out sequestration cuts in red states unless action is taken?
We are rewarding heartless behavior without a fight. You shouldn't have to win a negotiation to convince your husband or wife to feed the kid when he or she is hungry.
We are rewarding heartless behavior without a fight. You shouldn't have to win a negotiation to convince your husband or wife to feed the kid when he or she is hungry.
Having now seen the HuffPo article I'm retracting my earlier dislike. This deal is fine, people are getting worked up over face again. $715 billion is $85 billion short of the $800 billion BATNA. As if by magic, the bill contains about $100 billion in stimulus. That's the horse trade. And it's a lot better than chained CPI or Social Security. This is another example of people freaking out over meaningless top line numbers
Byakuya769
Member
I'm not a MMT guy, though I am sympathetic to it. I think higher rates are good for inequality and for getting our budget back grounded in reality. Revenues need to be able to move in both directions, not just one. Otherwise, some day we may be left with a choice of doing large scale economic harm to lower class citizens to fight off inflation.
The Librarian
Banned
If the debt ceiling isn't part of the deal, this would be the case whether or not the deal had spending cuts. So better no spending cuts in this deal. Also, it's not really a deal yet because there are elements still outstanding like the debt ceiling, and how to pay for sequester/UI.
I meant what cuts. The fact that this deal has no spending cuts tells me that the GOP wants to draw blood in March. Obama wants to compromise, I get that, but he can't roll over ALL the time. I'm just getting a little tired of it.
Shame about the estate tax.
I would trade pretty much any other tax measure for a good raise there.
It's the most socially justified tax by far.
Other then that, nothing to get too worked out about, no major cuts that I see, which is what should matter right now.
If we start seeing inflation we can revisit the taxation side of things, though ideally, that would be as part of a large tax code overhaul which is way overdue.
But fuck, we need to resolve that debt ceiling bullshit once and for all, I think some provision that would stipulate congress comes with an revised budget if they refuse to raise the ceiling would most likely do the trick - but even floating it as a proposal should go a long way into framing that issue correctly.
Not all deficits are created equal, and I strongly believe (as do most non Austrian economists) an equally sized deficit can be much more beneficial to the economy if it has more taxation on the rich and more government spending.
Money supply isn't everything.
I would trade pretty much any other tax measure for a good raise there.
It's the most socially justified tax by far.
Other then that, nothing to get too worked out about, no major cuts that I see, which is what should matter right now.
If we start seeing inflation we can revisit the taxation side of things, though ideally, that would be as part of a large tax code overhaul which is way overdue.
But fuck, we need to resolve that debt ceiling bullshit once and for all, I think some provision that would stipulate congress comes with an revised budget if they refuse to raise the ceiling would most likely do the trick - but even floating it as a proposal should go a long way into framing that issue correctly.
It's more than that.
Not all deficits are created equal, and I strongly believe (as do most non Austrian economists) an equally sized deficit can be much more beneficial to the economy if it has more taxation on the rich and more government spending.
Money supply isn't everything.
We're hoping to accomplish a few things. One is to curb income inequality. 15% to 20% barely does this, yes, but it's a step in the right direction. Millionaires shouldn't be paying only 20% on things. Realistically (and in interest of fairness) capital gains should be taxed like income. But, unfortunately America is too afraid of taxing anyone, least of all their praised job creators to do that. So it is in part for actual effect, and in another part in order to show people that we're not going to all fall over and die if the capital gains rate is raised.
The other thing is that even though the debt doesn't matter in the way most people think it does, that doesn't mean you can throw monetary favors and dollars around to everyone inefficiently. We have a duty to spend where it is beneficial and cut back where it is not. It is absolutely not beneficial to keep what was always supposed to be a temporary cut to those who are well off and aren't going to affect demand in a giant way. We can use our money supply in a far more beneficial and efficient way.
And lastly, even though the above is true, people do think the debt matters, and that's what the American people feel at this moment. And so, if we are going to cut our spending, then we should least of all do it to that which will affect demand right at this moment. We should do it on that which will not affect demand, and those making that much money statistically won't affect demand in such a way that will harm the economy.
Nix that. I should have said SHOULDN'T.
TacticalFox88
Banned
What the fuck at these people in the background.
Saw a tweet this morning along the lines, of welcome to America. A super power where we need to get permission from the losing political party every few months to continue operating.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Run on raising taxes on rich. Cut rich's taxes
What the fuck at these people in the background.
Obama's late because they had to find some people on the street.
Any deal would cut the rich's taxes. Everyone gets a tax cut.
Jackben
bitch I'm taking calls.
Coldnoodle
Member
These guys are well dressed.
TacticalFox88
Banned
Obama confirms it's not done.
Crisis averted.
Crisis averted.
Byakuya769
Member
ClovingWestbrook
Banned
I bet it leads to Michelle divorcing him.
HerbertFish
Member
Obama bringing up middle class families on stage. I mean really? Turn this into a PR event again, as CNBC points out
I have this West Wing fantasy of Obama framing the debt ceiling as economic hostage taking from day one, and saying day one he won't sign anything but a clean bill and actually holding firm. Every day he uses his bully pulpit: "America does not negotiate with terrorists." Every day Democrats are on message saying the same thing.
Fantasies are nice.
Dr. Pangloss
Member
Not being very pragmatic. Tell me of what offer in the last two months featured capital gains being taxed as ordinary income. If we even go over the cliff, then only dividends are. Capital gains only reverts to 20% for everyone.
And this deal does meaningful things in reducing the deficit. We are getting tax revenue. It's not my fault that the Democrats have moved to the right of Clinton. Also stimulus tax extenders are getting pushed into the next couple of years. That means more wind energy. More unemployment benefits. I consider that a win for our fragile recovery. Should we sacrifice the good for the perfect?
That would be so great. It's a nice dream.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Obama looks pretty weak in the end. Caved from his line in the sand and ultimately played no part in final negotiations
Officerrob
Banned
Whether you like the deal or not, I refuse to believe anything passes the House until I see it.
I don't like that type of theatrics myself, but it is a PR event, and I don't see anything particularly wrong with it.
The best way to affect congress is shit public opinions.
p.s.
For real, fuck CNBC.
el retorno
Member
Ok one boehner quotes about "if you don't put cuts with revenue the cuts never come" does have me optimistic this is a win.
There's gonna be pressure for cuts but what real cuts have we ever gotten? The GOP is gonna put up a big fight to get them in return for the debt ceiling but Obama has done pretty good at getting cuts with a high number that don't actually cut anything (debt ceiling)
But just getting tax revenues now we get what we want (though not as much as would be liked) but its gonna be hard for them to get their cuts even if it leads to a mess of theatrics in a few months, the end result will probably be small or no cuts. Probably a better deal than if we'd have gotten CPI in this deal.
the dems will vote for it. same as the debt ceiling. he lets the tea party do their stupid thing and gets enough dem support.
There's gonna be pressure for cuts but what real cuts have we ever gotten? The GOP is gonna put up a big fight to get them in return for the debt ceiling but Obama has done pretty good at getting cuts with a high number that don't actually cut anything (debt ceiling)
But just getting tax revenues now we get what we want (though not as much as would be liked) but its gonna be hard for them to get their cuts even if it leads to a mess of theatrics in a few months, the end result will probably be small or no cuts. Probably a better deal than if we'd have gotten CPI in this deal.
the dems will vote for it. same as the debt ceiling. he lets the tea party do their stupid thing and gets enough dem support.
TacticalFox88
Banned
I think the internet would metldown. Oh god the right-wing fallout would make the election tears look like NOTHING.
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