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PoliGAF 2013 |OT1| Never mind, Wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

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Qazaq

Banned
This thread reads exactly like PoliGAF threads from 09/10; an endless barrage of liberal whining about a moderate President governing like a moderate.


You seem to forget that the definitions of "moderate" have swung to the right NOTICEABLY even in just the past few years due to this kind of obstructionism. This isn't "moderate".

More along the lines of moderate liberals whining about a Democrat president governing like a moderate conservative.

Bingo.
 

Chichikov

Member
Obama should just come out every day and say "listen, I don't want cuts, I don't think it's a good time to cut government programs, but I'm willing to compromise, please GOP, deliver me a specific cuts plan so we can discuss it with the American public".
 
Klein tweeted two weeks ago that, for reasons completely unknown to anybody, Reid and Pelosi both don't like the payroll tax cut. Given that, it's no surprise that it's going away, although I agree that it would've been the best choice of stimulus.

I'm assuming because of its direct link to social security revenue?
 

thefro

Member
It's all really up to whether Obama's going to be really tough on the debt ceiling as to whether this turns out well. He needs to invoke the 14th Amendment and dare the Supreme Court to tank the economy.
 

Chichikov

Member
If we're going to end the payroll tax cuts, you can bet everything that the GOP will campaign on "Obama raised taxes on the middle class" in the midterms.
Also, fuck payroll taxes in general.
 
I'm assuming because of its direct link to social security revenue?

That's probably it, and is the reason they should be de-linked post haste. Imagine if that were part of the Democratic demand for negotiations. How far would that have dragged the deal closer to the center?

But note that the payroll tax cut did not affect the accounting for social security. The cut provided that the lost "revenue" would be "reimbursed" from the general fund. If anything, that should have been pushed further and further until the whole thing was just accounted for by the government's general spending.

(Note that there is no reason why social security ought to be separately accounted for. The only thing it accomplishes is ensuring the program continues to be pegged to a regressive tax on work. The taxes don't actually fund anything. It's just an accounting mechanism that has the effect of providing the illusion of limitations to the program.)
 

Snake

Member
Klein tweeted two weeks ago that, for reasons completely unknown to anybody, Reid and Pelosi both don't like the payroll tax cut. Given that, it's no surprise that it's going away, although I agree that it would've been the best choice of stimulus.

The payroll tax cut will expire without much ado from institutionally-experienced liberals because it has been essential to developing the "earned" aspect of earned benefits such as Social Security and Medicare with the public at large. When they were first looking at a temporary payroll tax cut you may remember hearing critics from the left saying Obama is doing this to undermine SS/Medicare, and to create a culture where people won't feel like they're entitled to those benefits anymore. Of course, I'm sure those same critics will be intellectually consistent and not grasp at straws to criticize Barack Obama.

edit: for the record, I wouldn't mind if they permanently got rid of payroll taxes.
 

Dartastic

Member
Hahahahhaha I love the new title. I just came in here to say something about that as well. Thanks for caving on taxes, Obama. Appreciate that. YOU ALWAYS FREAKING CAVE.
 
McCain's not interested.

aG46g.gif


Obama to change party identification tomorrow, according to sources within PoliGAF
PD

Fixed
 
Hahahahhaha I love the new title. I just came in here to say something about that as well. Thanks for caving on taxes, Obama. Appreciate that. YOU ALWAYS FREAKING CAVE.
How did he cave?

Obama's opening move was 200k.

Boehner's opening move was 1 million.

Obama's compromise was at 400k, and that was with SS benefits cut and a bunch of other shit.

The current deal is 400k without any of that.

Cave would be going for the million, or an extension of everything.

Unless you'd prefer we go over the cliff, which is valid but Obama clearly doesn't want to.
 
What happens later today/tomorrow when the senate passes this with ~65 votes and then the House GOP kills it? Will Boehner even put it up for a vote if it doesn't have majority of the majority support, but may pass with the help of Democrats?
 

Qazaq

Banned
(Note that there is no reason why social security ought to be separately accounted for. The only thing accomplishes is ensuring it continues to be pegged to a regressive tax on work. The taxes don't actually fund anything. It's just an accounting mechanism that has the effect of providing the illusion of limitations to the program.)

Sorry, can you explain this a bit? I don't really know how much of the fiscal details work for these programs.

It sounds sort of like what you're saying is that the taxes to fund Social Security is a bit like the debt ceiling fight; that Social Security is just a program that is going to continue and it's going to continue to take money regardless, it's just that Congress has to keep finding ways to account for the money it takes up -- not that, unless X goes into effect Social Security "expires" in 20XX.

Am I understanding correctly?
 

Dartastic

Member
How did he cave?

Obama's opening move was 200k.

Boehner's opening move was 1 million.

Obama's compromise was at 400k, and that was with SS benefits cut and a bunch of other shit.

The current deal is 400k without any of that.

Cave would be going for the million, or an extension of everything.

Unless you'd prefer we go over the cliff, which is valid but Obama clearly doesn't want to.
Because for the longest time, the tax cuts were set to end for earners of $250,000. Remember him "getting that for free?" He's continually brought up this dollar amount, and now he's changing it.

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2012/12/why-is-obama-caving-on-taxes.html
 

Crisco

Banned
The people who are upset seem to think that going over the cliff would guarantee that liberals get everything they want. It won't. Hell, the whole concept that going over the cliff would be good hinges on the GOP being reasonable. They've proven time and time again that they aren't. This is a really good deal and is basically the essence of what compromise should be. In fact, I'll be mildly shocked if the House even passes it because they are basically getting absolutely nothing that they want in this deal.
 

Qazaq

Banned
The people who are upset seem to think that going over the cliff would guarantee that liberals get everything they want. It won't. Hell, the whole concept that going over the cliff would be good hinges on the GOP being reasonable. They've proven time and time again that they aren't. This is a really good deal and is basically the essence of what compromise should be. In fact, I'll be mildly shocked if the House even passes it because they are basically getting absolutely nothing that they want in this deal.


It's interesting to see the two different lines of thinking.


Democrats "compromise" essentially to just get it passed.

Republicans however see them as having "gotten" nothing.
 
Sorry, can you explain this a bit? I don't really know how much of the fiscal details work for these programs.

It sounds sort of like what you're saying is that the taxes to fund Social Security is a bit like the debt ceiling fight; that Social Security is just a program that is going to continue and it's going to continue to take money regardless, it's just that Congress has to keep finding ways to account for the money it takes up -- not that, unless X goes into effect Social Security "expires" in 20XX.

Am I understanding correctly?

The way I would put it is this: social security is a program in which the government promises to pay X amount of dollars annually to retirees. If you eliminate the payroll tax, then the government can still pay X amount of dollars annually to retirees. Why couldn't it? Even if one believed that taxes finance government spending (instead of the other way around, which is the reality), then any "financing" necessary can come from other tax sources that aren't painfully regressive and that do not punish work.
 
The tax deal should have been to keep the tax cut for 250k and below (actually I would even say better would be 150k single, 250k married) and keep the payroll tax cut. That increase will have a negative effect on disposable income of middle class already.

Oh and keep the defense spending cuts, eliminate waste. Eliminate Generals living like Presidents. Cut projects that have been delayed by decades and are over budget by a significant amount.
 

Qazaq

Banned
The way I would put it is this: social security is a program in which the government promises to pay X amount of dollars annually to retirees. If you eliminate the payroll tax, then the government can still pay X amount of dollars annually to retirees. Why couldn't it? Even if one believed that taxes finance government spending (instead of the other way around, which is the reality), then any "financing" necessary can come from other tax sources that aren't painfully regressive and that do not punish work.

Heh, OOPS, I was stupid. Dur, you were just saying Social Security is a regressive tax -- which it is, I just guess it's not really often phrased that way which confused me.
 

Tim-E

Member
Does this current proposal do anything with the sequester or is that three month delay a part of this one? So many deals are proposed within a day I forget which one's which.
 

Qazaq

Banned
actually I would even say better would be 150k single, 250k married

Honestly? With that rate, you're basically hitting a lot of upper-middle class folks. Perhaps I'm a bit biased, since my father makes about 150k and we are upper middle class, but those figures are typical of many areas of suburban New Jersey. Yes New Jersey is a wealthy state, but if the goal is to reduce income inequality by taxing the wealthiest of society while preserving the tax cuts for the middle class, I think those rates go over the line, imo.

Remember, in many areas of the Northeast, those income figures ARE middle class. Not lower middle class of course, but certainly still middle class.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Hands off, Papa Joe is mine!

iby7Q2kauGHIvb.gif

Step off brah.

Does this current proposal do anything with the sequester or is that three month delay a part of this one? So many deals are proposed within a day I forget which one's which.

I dunno. I think it does, but I have also heard that it pushed it to either a 90 days or a year out.

Sequester issue hasn't been resolved, among other things.

Of course it hasn't. Nevermind what I said.
 
Does this current proposal do anything with the sequester or is that three month delay a part of this one? So many deals are proposed within a day I forget which one's which.

That's one of the big things still up in the air. GOP wants to delay it two months; I think Dems want to delay it two years.
 

GhaleonEB

Member
Why would you presume this? I don't understand this thought process at all. If this is how people think, no wonder Obama doesn't usually ask for the farm in his opening bid -- every time he takes something off the table, liberals assume he'll have to pay for it by cutting Medicare. That's not how it works. Obama's original offer was deliberately inflated, that's the purpose of negotiation.

Obama has set a deficit reduction target. He proposed getting to that target mostly through revenues. He will get ~1/2 of the proposed revenues, assuming the current frame work holds (and it does not look like it is). If he holds to that deficit reduction target, the rest comes from spending cuts. The question is from where. Again, assuming he keeps his own self-imposed target.

This is not an obscure or difficult thought process. It's the heart the entire issue: Obama and the GOP largely agree on deficit reduction (sadly). Obama wants to do it with a richer mix of revenue than the GOP (who want zero). The more the mix tilts away from revenue, the more the conversation revolves around spending cuts. And the more tax policy gets settled right now, the less levers Obama has to use as leverage during those negotiations.

I'm honestly baffled at your reply.
 

Snake

Member
Didn't see this posted among the Cliffchat.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/159587/hillary-clinton-barack-obama-admired-2012.aspx

Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama Most Admired in 2012
Clinton has been Most Admired more than any other woman in Gallup's history

PRINCETON, NJ -- Americans again this year name Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and President Barack Obama as the Most Admired Woman and Most Admired Man living in any part of the world. Clinton has been the Most Admired Woman each of the last 11 years, and Obama has been the Most Admired Man five years in a row. First lady Michelle Obama, Oprah Winfrey, and Condoleezza Rice are next in line behind Clinton on the Most Admired Woman list, while Nelson Mandela, Mitt Romney, Billy Graham, George W. Bush, and Pope Benedict XVI follow Obama as Most Admired Man.

iNG8cJdMmcVlx.png


I'm sort of surprised that Slick Willy doesn't place a little higher.
 

Tim-E

Member
Obama has set a deficit reduction target. He proposed getting to that target mostly through revenues. He will get ~1/2 of the proposed revenues, assuming the current frame work holds (and it does not look like it is). If he holds to that deficit reduction target, the rest comes from spending cuts. The question is from where. Again, assuming he keeps his own self-imposed target.

This is not an obscure or difficult thought process. It's the heart the entire issue: Obama and the GOP largely agree on deficit reduction (sadly). Obama wants to do it with a richer mix of revenue than the GOP (who want zero). The more the mix tilts away from revenue, the more the conversation revolves around spending cuts. And the more tax policy gets settled right now, the less levers Obama has to use as leverage during those negotiations.

I'm honestly baffled at your reply.

What's being floated around isn't the "Grand Bargain," it's simply something to prevent much of the tax hikes from happening because they can't agree on anything. As far as I'm aware, this particular plan says nothing of a specific deficit reduction goal and cuts that could potentially happen to meet said goal as this has no SS or Medicare cuts within it. I may be wrong, though, so feel free to correct me.
 
What's being floated around isn't the "Grand Bargain," it's simply something to prevent much of the tax hikes from happening because they can't agree on anything. As far as I'm aware, this particular plan says nothing of a specific deficit reduction goal and cuts that could potentially happen to meet said goal as this has no SS or Medicare cuts within it. I may be wrong, though, so feel free to correct me.
I think his problem is that by passing the tax portion now, Obama's giving up leverage he'd have in a broader debate on deficit spending/debt ceiling hoo-hah.
 

Qazaq

Banned
Did I miss the post or did no one post that McConnell has said to pass the tax portion now?

MSNBC has a banner headline up: "BREAKING NEWS: Republican Sen. McConnell says there is agreement on tax rates."

There's not even a story to click through to at this time. Don't know what this means. Just a weather advisory.

NRO has a story up saying McConnell has said "pass the tax rate portion now."

From NRO [I'm quoting NRO!!!!]:

But first, he’d like the Senate to vote on the tax aspect of the deal as soon as possible. “I can report we’ve reached an agreement on all of the tax issues,” he said. “Let’s pass the tax relief portion now.”
Now, CNN has this.
Some tweets:

Lisa Desjardins
✔
@LisaDCNN
MCCONNELL: let's pass the tax portion now, let's take what we have and get moving.
31 Dec 12 ReplyRetweetFavorite
Deirdre Walsh@deirdrewalshcnn
McConnell reports that deal done on the TAX pieces - says let's pass tax portion now
31 Dec 12 ReplyRetweetFavori
 
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