Support NeoGAF

[The Librarian]

Can someone run the numbers between 200k and 400k? Is it really that much of a difference or is it symbolic?

It's like 90 billion dollars.

 

[Black Mamba]

You guys don't seem to understand "permanent." It's a misnomer here. It simply means without a defined expiration date as the Bush tax cuts had (10 years).

That's stupid policy, anyway. They can be changed any time. And will.

 

[pigeon]

WHAT. THE. HELL.

Nothing Congress does has a lifespan of longer than two years. If in five years there's a majority to raise taxes on the middle class, then they'll get raised whether or not there are expiring tax cuts to do it automatically; contrariwise, if they only lasted five years then they'd just get extended in five years. This is actually an accounting fiction that redounds to the Democrat's benefit -- they get to count ten years of Bush tax cuts but only five years of tax credits (which are quite likely to get extended as well).

 

[teiresias]

Let the debt ceiling be a different debate. The GOP was never going to give it up in a small deal so what's the big hub-bub?

Reich is being silly. First off, nothing is "permanent." The Dems taking control can raise taxes if they so choose, just like they recently did with Obamacare's taxes. If the Dems ever win the House back they can move the $400/450 and estate taxes down. They probably won't, but they could.

There are no significant spending cuts to come form either party for the most part (that isn't recession related) so this is more of a scare. Republicans significantly cutting spending? I'll believe it when I see it.


This deal isn't everything I'd like. I'd want dividends higher, estate tax number lower, and the $250k threshold. But I can live with the changes for the UE extension and no cuts. So should the rest of you if this is the deal. Obama did well if this is it. He's been practical.

"permanent" simply means there is no expiration date. They can be changed by law at any time by majority vote (granted Senate needs to be filibuster proof).

And in 5 years the GOP will extend them again.

Stop freaking out.

I don't see how you can say Democrats allowing even the optics of making any part of the high-income tax cuts cto ome out of this deal labeled "permanent" while having middle-class tax relief measures have an expiration date is anything but moronic and Obama and the Dems being nothing but a bunch of cowardly and stupid idiots.

The reality of the fact that this can all change is beside the point. The fact is that democrats are not fighting to make middle-class tax relief get the "permanent" label and completely willing to let them have a five year expiration - hey, just in time for a potential Republican president to not give a damn about them. It's ridiculous.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

It's like 90 billion dollars.

What a deal breaker.

 

[worldrunover]

Conditional?

Should expire at some point.

 

[Gotchaye]

You guys don't seem to understand "permanent." It's a misnomer here. It simply means without a defined expiration date as the Bush tax cuts had (10 years).

That's stupid policy, anyway. They can be changed any time. And will.

It matters a little. After all, that the Bush tax cuts were not permanent is part of why they're on the table now. Unless there is substantial filibuster reform, there will continue to be a huge asymmetry between action and inaction. Even without the filibuster, the House and Senate and President all have to agree to change tax rates from current policy, whereas just one of them has to want to let an existing expiration date built into policy pass without action.

If taxes were not already going to go up under current policy, there is no way the Republican House would vote for higher taxes unless Democrats resort to hostage-taking.

 

[Mike M]

"permanent" simply means there is no expiration date. They can be changed by law at any time by majority vote (granted Senate needs to be filibuster proof).

That's a monstrous caveat, and even if the Democrats were to regain a supermajority, we have no guarantee they'd all vote to raise taxes. Setting an expiration date is the only currently feasible way to ever raise taxes in the foreseeable future, and provides leverage in negotiations.

 

[Black Mamba]

I don't see how you can say Democrats allowing even the optics of making any part of the high-income tax cuts cto ome out of this deal labeled "permanent" while having middle-class tax relief measures have an expiration date is anything but moronic and Obama and the Dems being nothing but a bunch of cowardly and stupid idiots.

The reality of the fact that this can all change is beside the point. The fact is that democrats are not fighting to make middle-class tax relief get the "permanent" label and completely willing to let them have a five year expiration - hey, just in time for a potential Republican president to not give a damn about them. It's ridiculous.

newsflash: 90% of people don't give a fuck about optics and only care about their wallets.

politics is politics. There isn't a real scoreboard here, though. People will remember their taxes weren't raised and in 5 years Hillary will ask for the EITC to be made permanent and the GOP if they even have power will oblige.

That's a monstrous caveat, and even if the Democrats were to regain a supermajority, we have no guarantee they'd all vote to raise taxes. Setting an expiration date is the only currently feasible way to ever raise taxes in the foreseeable future, and provides leverage in negotiations.

but this is true right now and any time even if they aren't permanent.

My point is "permanent" doesn't mean unchangeable. It simply means there's not ticking clock of doom.

 

[pigeon]

It matters a little. After all, that the Bush tax cuts were not permanent is part of why they're on the table now. Unless there is substantial filibuster reform, there will continue to be a huge asymmetry between action and inaction. Even without the filibuster, the House and Senate and President all have to agree to change tax rates from current policy, whereas just one of them has to want to let an existing expiration date built into policy pass without action.

I feel like you guys are forgetting that we're talking about middle class tax cuts here. Do you really think that Congresspeople will suddenly be okay raising taxes on everyone in America just because they don't have to affirmatively vote for it? This is literally the terrifying doomsday scenario that is supposed to be forcing them to vote for rich people tax hikes now. Things are going to have to change quite a bit before middle class tax increases will be plausible, and if things have changed that much, we'll be able to pass them.

 

[teiresias]

newsflash: 90% of people don't give a fuck about optics and only care about their wallets.

politics is politics. There isn't a real scoreboard here, though. People will remember their taxes weren't raised and in 5 years Hillary will ask for the EITC to be made permanent and the GOP if they even have power will oblige.



but this is true right now and any time even if they aren't permanent.

My point is "permanent" doesn't mean unchangeable. It simply means there's not ticking clock of doom.

2010 was all about "optics" and Republicans controlling the narrative to disastrous ends. I can see 2014 already, "Democrats let the middle-class only get a five year expiration and let the rich get indefinite and permanent tax cuts!" It won't matter that it's not true, it won't matter that it was in order to get something through a ridiculous Republican caucus, they'll push it like mad and give it traction and feckless Democrats will let it become the narrative and shit the Congressional bed once again - when all they have to do is let the cliff happen and pin it on Republicans and get more than they'll ever get out of any deal made before the deadline.

 

[The Technomancer]

Man, I really hope they manage to preserve the payroll tax cut. That's the one that's going to hit my family the hardest, since my father is self-employed and has to pay the entire payroll tax himself.

 

[Snake]

Man, I really hope they manage to preserve the payroll tax cut.

I don't think that's even under consideration.

 

[eBay Huckster]

And in 5 years the GOP will extend them again.

Technically speaking, in 5 years the GOP won't control either house of Congress.

Even with Super Duper Gerrymandering they aren't keeping the House past 2016.

 

[Gotchaye]

I feel like you guys are forgetting that we're talking about middle class tax cuts here. Do you really think that Congresspeople will suddenly be okay raising taxes on everyone in America just because they don't have to affirmatively vote for it? This is literally the terrifying doomsday scenario that is supposed to be forcing them to vote for rich people tax hikes now. Things are going to have to change quite a bit before middle class tax increases will be plausible, and if things have changed that much, we'll be able to pass them.

I'm generally fine with the Democrats promising whatever in 5 or 10 years, because I expect that the Republicans will either have less power or be sane by then, but Mamba's posts gave the impression that there was no real political distinction at all between permanent policy (tax cuts, here) and policy with an expiration date. There is some chance that in 5 years Republicans will have a veto and will be crazy enough to want these things to end.

 

[Chumly]

If were not getting a debt ceiling fix and they are only putting off the sequester for a 3 months - year - 2 years they should add another tax "cliff". Taxes on 500k+ go up 10% in 2 years unless congress decides to "postpone it". Only seems fair considering republicans take the entire government hostage and the only thing they care about is the rich.

EDIT: Also add in 75% estate taxes above 10 million in 2 years unless its "postponed".

 

[The Chosen One]

I think it was pretty obvious we were going to go over the cliff. Now House Republicans don't have to vote for a tax hike, they'll be voting for a tax cut. Tax purity preserved.

 

[B-Dubs]

I think it was pretty obvious we were going to go over the cliff. Now House Republicans don't have to vote for a tax hike, they'll be voting for a tax cut. Tax purity preserved.

We won't see any deals until Boehner gets reelected. But yea we were always going over if only for a moment.

 

[The Librarian]

Both BB and Yglseisas are essentially proposing the same question: Now that we're essentially over the cliff, why would Senate Democrats vote for a bill when they're caucus gets more liberal and bigger on Thursday?

Edit: Also got on Twitter that sequester will be delayed for two months. Which puts it right up against the debt ceiling. If that's part of the deal, then I'm against it. That's stupid.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Both BB and Yglseisas are essentially proposing the same question: Now that we're essentially over the cliff, why would Senate Democrats vote for a bill when they're caucus gets more liberal and bigger on Thursday?

Edit: Also got on Twitter that sequester will be delayed for two months. Which puts it right up against the debt ceiling. If that's part of the deal, then I'm against it. That's stupid.

The bad part now is in 2 months GOP will say we gave you revenue already, now give us all spending/entitlement cuts.

Either we get a proper deal right now, or over the cliff we go I say.

 

[B-Dubs]

The bad part now is in 2 months GOP will say we gave you revenue already, now give us all spending/entitlement cuts.

Either we get a proper deal right now, or over the cliff we go I say.

I thought that the house already went home and we were cliff diving? Fuck it if we aren't, lets blow this mother!

 

[cartoon_soldier]

I thought that the house already went home and we were cliff diving? Fuck it if we aren't, lets blow this mother!

Tax cuts yea.

The sequester doesn't go into effect until Jan 2 actually. The law has Obama giving the order for Cuts on Jan 2.

 

[jamesinclair]

I'm just glad I didn't vote for Obama or give him a single penny.

 

[ezekial45]

I'm just glad I didn't vote for Obama or give him a single penny.

lol

 

[gkryhewy]

I'm just glad I didn't vote for Obama or give him a single penny.

You sure showed him, champ.

 

[ClovingWestbrook]

I'm just glad I didn't vote for Obama or give him a single penny.

Lol

 

[jamesinclair]

You sure showed him, champ.

I dont have to live with myself knowing I voted for someone who campaigns on one promise and then turns around and throws everything away so his wikipedia article is more positive. I like being able to sleep at night, thank you very much.

That, and at this point the differences between Obama and a younger Bush (policy wise) are pretty much non existent.




In other news, say goodbye to your local neighborhood streetlights. The Obama administration will literally plunge this country into darkness*

JP Morgan Gets a Big Holiday Gift From the SEC

Until now, the main people buying physical copper have been the people who use it, like manufacturers that produce basic industrial goods such as pipes and electrical wires. Speculators have been limited to trading in futures, which are forms of bets that link only indirectly with physical supply of copper. Two weeks ago, however, the SEC blessed a controversial fund designed by J.P. Morgan Chase that, for the first time, will let investors buy shares backed by physical, warehoused copper, to use as a form of investment.

The change may seem arcane. But long-time participants in the copper market say the effects will be immediate: Manufacturers looking to make productive use of copper will find themselves competing with speculators backed by some of the richest banks and funds in the world, raising prices for many consumer products. The long-term result may be even more disturbing: The SEC's ruling all but invites bankers to increase speculation in other, even more essential goods, like grain and oil.

In practical terms, the SEC handed traders at J.P. Morgan control over 20 to 30 percent of the copper available for immediate delivery from the London Metals Exchange -- the commercial market where companies that use copper go to procure last-minute supplies.

The investors purchasing shares in J.P. Morgan's fund won't be buying copper to use, but to store. The intricacies of the fund are complex, but its underlying rationale is straightforward: the more shares investors buy, the more copper is taken off the market. And the more copper that is taken off the market, theoretically the more valuable the copper and the shares become. The Sumitomo trader who cornered the market in the ’90s relied on the same essential strategy to artificially inflate worldwide copper prices.

http://www.tnr.com/blog/plank/111490/jp-morgan-gets-big-holiday-gift-the-sec#

Also going to do wonders to investment in infrastructure. You thought $100bn in infrastructure spending would help? Not if copper prices skyrocket. But lol, as if Obama was serious about infrastructure spending.



*If you dont get the reference, it's because as copper prices go up, so does copper theft, and streetlights are a prime target as theyre easy to snatch and unguarded.

 

[ClovingWestbrook]

I dont have to live with myself knowing I voted for someone who campaigns on one promise and then turns around and throws everything away so his wikipedia article is more positive. I like being able to sleep at night, thank you very much.

That, and at this point the differences between Obama and a younger Bush (policy wise) are pretty much non existent.




In other news, say goodbye to your local neighborhood streetlights. The Obama administration will literally plunge this country into darkness*



http://www.tnr.com/blog/plank/111490/jp-morgan-gets-big-holiday-gift-the-sec#


*If you dont get the reference, it's because as copper prices go up, so does copper theft, and streetlights are a prime target as theyre easy to snatch and unguarded.

You're adorable.

 

[Chichikov]

So Norquist is on CNN saying that WHO GIVE A FLYING FUCK ABOUT THAT CUNT, FUCK YOU CNN STOP GIVING HIM A PLATFORM

 

[jamesinclair]

You're adorable.

You dont believe that Obama's SEC change will result in higher copper prices which will in turn result in more copper theft, which will mean less working streetlights?

Id like you to explain your reasons.

 

[B-Dubs]

Tax cuts yea.

The sequester doesn't go into effect until Jan 2 actually. The law has Obama giving the order for Cuts on Jan 2.

So we've got another day of this shit?

So Norquist is on CNN saying that WHO GIVE A FLYING FUCK ABOUT THAT CUNT, FUCK YOU CNN STOP GIVING HIM A PLATFORM

Yup, whenever I see him on I change the channel.

 

[el retorno]

I like being able to sleep at night, thank you very much.

I sleep fine and have awesome dreams to boot.

 

[ClovingWestbrook]

You dont believe that Obama's SEC change will result in higher copper prices which will in turn result in more copper theft, which will mean less working streetlights?

Id like you to explain your reasons.

You said 'In other news, say goodbye to your local neighborhood streetlights. The Obama administration will literally plunge this country into darkness' which is just silly, scare mongering, and extreme. So much with you is black and white, no middle ground. That is why I said you're adorable.

 

[jamesinclair]

You said 'In other news, say goodbye to your local neighborhood streetlights. The Obama administration will literally plunge this country into darkness' which is just silly, scare mongering, and extreme. So much with you is black and white, no middle ground. That is why I said you're adorable.

I still dont get what youre disagreeing with?

1) The Obama administration changed the rules of the game so banks can profit by hoarding commodities. A typical Obama corporate handout.
2) As copper is hoarded, the price goes up. Its already very high.
3) As the price goes up, the incentive to steal goes up.
4) Streetlights offer easy sources of copper for thieves.
5) Cities cant afford to quickly replace the copper, in some cities, its been reported that the day after the light was fixed, the copper was stolen again
6) No lights = darkness

 

[ClovingWestbrook]

I still dont get what youre disagreeing with?

1) The Obama administration changed the rules of the game so banks can profit by hoarding commodities. A typical Obama corporate handout.
2) As copper is hoarded, the price goes up. Its already very high.
3) As the price goes up, the incentive to steal goes up.
4) Streetlights offer easy sources of copper for thieves.
5) Cities cant afford to quickly replace the copper, in some cities, its been reported that the day after the light was fixed, the copper was stolen again
6) No lights = darkness

1. Natural resource of oil is bought, sold, speculated on by investors and companies.
2. Price goes up, people syphon oil and gas from automobiles.
3. Nobody can afford to drive.

On wait, thats not how the world works.

 

[jamesinclair]

1. Natural resource of oil is bought, sold, speculated on by investors and companies.
2. Price goes up, people syphon oil and gas from automobiles.
3. Nobody can afford to drive.

On wait, thats not how the world works.

Youre right thats not how the world works.


Read the article, theres a huge difference.

People trade oil FUTURES....nobody actually buys the oil and stores it.

 

[TacticalFox88]

I'm usually good at detecting them, but is James trolling us?
WTF.

 

[ClovingWestbrook]

Youre right thats not how the world works.


Read the article, theres a huge difference.

People trade oil FUTURES....nobody actually buys the oil and stores it.

I'm still going to assume you're trolling us.

 

[Ecotic]

It's a new golden age for us copper hoarders. One which will never end.

*lights cigar

 

[B-Dubs]

It's a new golden age for us copper hoarders. One which will never end.

*lights cigar

Pennies might actually become more valuable than paper money! My grandmother to make a trillion dollars confirmed!

 

[soul creator]

 

[KtSlime]

It's a new golden age for us copper hoarders. One which will never end.

*lights cigar

The penny now has value. Thanks Obama!

Man, and I thought I had an over active imagination, lol.

 

[Ecotic]

Here's a small piece of my copper hoard boys, when the Obamapocalypse hits the only thing staving off 1,000 years of copper-thieved induced darkness is my 3 tons of copper pennies which I'll gladly sell at a totally reasonable, hyper-inflated price.

*lights cigar

 

[Xeke]

The penny now has value. Thanks Obama!

Man, and I thought I had an over active imagination, lol.

Only if you have a pre ~1980 penny.

 

[B-Dubs]

Here's a small piece of my copper hoard boys, when the Obamapocalypse hits the only thing staving off 1,000 years of copper-thieved induced darkness is my 3 tons of copper pennies which I'll gladly sell at a totally reasonable, hyper-inflated price.



*lights cigar

When the copper-less hordes descend upon us all will you hide us in your shelter? You know, the one you're going to buy with that trillion or so dollars worth of copper you have there?

Only if you have a pre ~1980 penny.

Pfft, as if the zombie-like hordes of people searching for copper as if it were the very air they breathe will know the difference.

 

[Ecotic]

When the copper-less hordes descend upon us all will you hide us in your shelter? You know, the one you're going to buy with that trillion or so dollars worth of copper you have there?

Of course not. "Hoard now and hold on" is the rallying cry of the prepared. If you don't plan ahead now then when the sun sets you'll be out of luck, brother.

 

[el retorno]

I'm usually good at detecting them, but is James trolling us?
WTF.

He's drifted down this path for a while. He's really prone to fatalism, the world ending (as in this policy is the worst thing ever) , type stuff. Also transportation I think.

 

[B-Dubs]

Of course not. "Hoard now and hold on" is the rallying cry of the prepared. If you don't plan ahead now then when the sun sets you'll be out of luck, brother.

What if we can offer you copper from our supplies? Only those that band together in our Mad Max-esque future will survive.

 

[jamesinclair]

He's drifted down this path for a while. He's really prone to fatalism, the world ending (as in this policy is the worst thing ever) , type stuff. Also transportation I think.

The fuck? I think youre mistaking me with somedude. Our names share a couple of letters.

I dont get you guys. Suddenly because Obama approves, reckless speculation is ok? But under Bush it was terrible?

The penny now has value. Thanks Obama!

Man, and I thought I had an over active imagination, lol.

Actually, melting pennies was banned in 2006, but many people hoard them assuming Obama will cave to wall street again and allow it. I think the daily show ran a segment on someone who actually has something like $10 million in pennies waiting to cash in.

 

[Stinkles]

James, if you are trolling then bravo. Not my cup of tea but whatever. If you are not trolling then here is a genuine piece of actual advice, not mockery. Talk to someone, maybe a counselor or a friend, but if you're serious you are teetering on the brink of becoming a conspiracy nut.