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PoliGAF 2014 |OT| Kay Hagan and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad News

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"Spa" as in a facility where they do massages and mudbaths, or as in synonymous with a hot tub?

My apartment complex had a hot tub on site. It almost certainly cost less than the pool itself and I doubt excluding it would have gone a long way towards the builders being able to construct more units.

I doubt know he doesn't explain it. Thinking of it I will assume hot tub because I highly doubt that he set foot into the housing project.
 
What percentage of people that would worked with would you say were a walking stereotype? And what percentage were people trying to better themselves?

Personally just where I've worked in Michigan, I'd say about 60-65% were working to better themselves, go to school, take advantage of the counseling programs etc. But again, that's just for where I was, I can't say the same applies to the entire country. I have family members who are on welfare or disability and brag about not trying to find jobs, but I wouldn't claim most people are like that.

But again, it goes back to ideas about the "culture of poverty." If all you see is decay and have no opportunity, your view on your own future or potential might be bleak. Why try to find a job if there are no jobs, or worse yet if there are jobs but you can't go because you're taking care of your little brothers/sisters, your parents are gone, etc. And yet republicans will try to tell someone living like this that they need to grasp opportunity.
 
I admit that the pool is whatever (don't see it much different than having a basketball court) but a spa? I don't know anybody who lives in an apartment that has an onsight spa? Wouldn't it also be better for the government to spend those spa money dollars on building more public housing units because there is such a shortage of them?

Yeah, I'm OK with the pool because I think swimming is an essential skill that all should possess. But the hot tub seems like an added luxury that should not be there.

I know it probably costs very little more and it is an arbitrary line. But such government assistance should be at a minimal level such that there is an envy and desire to aspire to better things. Yes, the 'welfare queen' mythology is certainly an over-extended propaganda line . . . but if you provide things like a hot tub, you make such statements more true. Don't let the "The safety net has become a hammock." lines become effective talking points.
 
Senate Majority PAC is plopping down 3 million on Senate races.

500,000 each in Louisiana, Colorado, Michigan, Arkansas, and a million in North Carolina.

I think CO and MI will naturally gravitate towards the Democrats closer to election day, but it's still good to prepare. NC, LA, and AR will be pure tossups until all the votes are counted (and in Louisiana's case it'll probably go into a runoff anyway).

I find it interesting that Alaska isn't on that list, but I've also always felt of the four red state incumbents (not counting Walsh), Begich is the safest just because AK's voting patterns are weird enough to support a Democratic senator who votes the right way on energy and guns.

It would be nothing short of a miracle for Democrats to hold all those seats while picking up Kentucky and Georgia, and that's what I'm hoping for.
 
Personally just where I've worked in Michigan, I'd say about 60-65% were working to better themselves, go to school, take advantage of the counseling programs etc. But again, that's just for where I was, I can't say the same applies to the entire country. I have family members who are on welfare or disability and brag about not trying to find jobs, but I wouldn't claim most people are like that.

60% is much more than I would assume.

But again, it goes back to ideas about the "culture of poverty."

All we have to do is accept a Scandinavian style system in which we have progressive pay. In which we have a minimum wage of $13 per hour. Of that $9 comes from businesses and $4 comes from the government. This scales up until the middle class. The problem is that nobody wants the poor to not be poor.

And yet republicans will try to tell someone living like this that they need to grasp opportunity.

Is this the build quality of most projects?

Yeah, I'm OK with the pool because I think swimming is an essential skill that all should possess. But the hot tub seems like an added luxury that should not be there.

I know it probably costs very little more and it is an arbitrary line. But such government assistance should be at a minimal level such that there is an envy and desire to aspire to better things. Yes, the 'welfare queen' mythology is certainly an over-extended propaganda line . . . but if you provide things like a hot tub, you make such statements more true. Don't let the "The safety net has become a hammock." lines become effective talking points.

To be fair I'm still not sure the reason of adding these things. For example if they found that adding basketball courts, pool, and spa reduces violence and crime in the projects notably due to people swimming and relaxing for their time of rather than hanging with the wrong tenants. I would still understand the added luxury bit but with that it would at least seem practical.
 
Projects vary. If one has a pool it probably looks decent. But you don't have to go far to find one that looks like a warzone. There are parts of Detroit and especially Flint that look like Baghdad circa 2003.
 
Projects vary. If one has a pool it probably looks decent. But you don't have to go far to find one that looks like a warzone. There are parts of Detroit and especially Flint that look like Baghdad circa 2003.

How long do tenants stay in public housing? Is there a time limit, like if you don't move out within X months or years you leave? Are there a lot of public housing places with spas?

I don't mean to bombard you with questions but I look online about info at public housing in my area/state and it doesn't reveal much.
 

Zona

Member
To be fair I'm still not sure the reason of adding these things. For example if they found that adding basketball courts, pool, and spa reduces violence and crime in the projects notably due to people swimming and relaxing for their time of rather than hanging with the wrong tenants. I would still understand the added luxury bit but with that it would at least seem practical.

This is part of it. When a housing project was built is going to radically change the form it takes. The fifties and early sixtys style was the large high rise model that fits as many people into a space as possible. Research done since suggests that this impends any sense of community or ownership and indirectly promotes vandalism. I know for a while a townhouse model was in vogue but it also depends on where in the country you are. On top of this today section 8 housing is most likely to be build by some private developer as part of a deal, you build X section 8 housing and we'll give you Y tax break. The developer may just build everything according to one plan and then simply assign some of the units as the required section 8 housing.
 

FyreWulff

Member
Spas have been romanticized by movies and other media, but I really would hesitate to call them some high mark of liviing it up - they're just pools with air jets in them. If you already have a pool, you already have the air system available to put a spa on the side of it. As long as you're not buying one premade from a local store, and it's being built as part of the pool, the actual materials cost of adding a spa ranges in the high hundreds/low thousandish.

I wouldn't be against sports courts or other physical, no-electricity-needed activities - poor kids often suffer from not having any actual -play- space available to them. You can't play in your back yard because you don't have one. You can't play in the house because it'll bother the tenants next to you. You can't play in the street because the old church lady will call the cops to enforce an old stupid bylaw on you, because how dare you actually want to have fun.

People need to be able to socialize and have physical activity without hoping for a Y to be built in the area or having to pay a membership.elsewhere. It's such a shame when I drive through the suburbs and every other house has a basketball hoop in the driveway, but nobody is ever using them, and even if they did, every kid is playing on their own hoop. All you need is some concrete, two metal poles, and a hoop. People will tend to resist basketball courts being installed in parks but won't even bat an eye at a tennis court. I wonder why?
 
How long do tenants stay in public housing? Is there a time limit, like if you don't move out within X months or years you leave? Are there a lot of public housing places with spas?

I don't mean to bombard you with questions but I look online about info at public housing in my area/state and it doesn't reveal much.

There may be time limits but I'd imagine it varies by state; personally I know people who lived in Detroit public housing for decades, I'm not sure if they had to re-apply every few years. Nor have I ever seen a public housing place with a spa, although as I said I've seen pools.

I don't think anyone can visit one and honestly argue it's a great place to live.
 

benjipwns

Banned
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Gallbaro

Banned
We build public pools. Or at least we used to until racial integration occurred.

Well to be fair our society cannot handle public pools.

The day after the grand opening, the pool had to be shut down when teenagers attacked and tried to drown a lifeguard.

A few days later, another fight closed the pool and two cops went to the hospital with minor injuries.

Then there was poop-gate on July 9, when the pool was briefly closed for mystery fecal reasons.

Cops had to use pepper spray to subdue brawling bathers as yet another fight shut down Williamsburg’s star-crossed McCarren Park Pool on Tuesday.

Four times in four weeks.
 
As far as I know, the government doesn't build section 8 housing. They give grants or loans to developers, and/or vouchers for part of the rent for section 8 tenants.

So, the pool and spa are on whoever built it. Maybe they did all the construction, then decided to make it section 8 because they couldn't make it work any other way. Maybe they just thought it sounded good.

Honestly, who cares? If it's in section 8 housing, the landlord isn't going to be doing a whole lot of maintenance. It's probably incredibly shitty. If not... well, my reaction is still mostly "so what?"

Good point.

We build public pools. Or at least we used to until racial integration occurred.

This pisses me the heck off. I would kill for a public pool.

There may be time limits but I'd imagine it varies by state; personally I know people who lived in Detroit public housing for decades, I'm not sure if they had to re-apply every few years. Nor have I ever seen a public housing place with a spa, although as I said I've seen pools.

I don't think anyone can visit one and honestly argue it's a great place to live.

I agree. Have you only been to public housing on Detroit?

Well to be fair our society cannot handle public pools.





Four times in four weeks.

So we shouldn't have public parks because some have a bunch of people litter in them and have murders at times I take it?
 

Chichikov

Member
Man, fuck that spa discussion.
I refuse to accept the notion that we must make people who live on public assistance as miserable as possible, otherwise they'll never look for their bootstraps.
Fuck that shit, if there are people who abuse the system or do not deserve to be on that program, we need to find them, but for fuck's sake, people in the US stay in poor due to lack of opportunity, not because they're living the good life (not to mention that anyone that thinks that as a whole, public housing in the US is a desirable place to live should go get their head checked).

Well to be fair our society cannot handle public pools.
I don't know which society you belong to, but Seattle has a great public pool system, I lived there for over a decade and never used anything else.
Fuck, I trained for a 70.3 on nothing but public pools (though I did also some open water swimming of course).
 

FLEABttn

Banned
I've lived in apartments that were functionally equivalent to section 8 housing and there was a pool and spa available. They were probably one of the few joys these people had in their lives and even then they weren't used terribly often because they were busy dealing with literally everything else. Their lives were nothing close to something that could be considered enviable.

When I lived there, you know what I rather would have had? A house.
 
As a heads up, the store didn't put that up - someone on reddit discovered that people in the area that are "rarrr foodstamps" have been taping those to doors.
Store should turn away redditors. Would probably be great for business and I don't think the supreme court has rulled then a protected class.
 

Blader

Member
Read about Nate Silver's forecast predicting a GOP Senate majority this fall. Welp.

Yeah, that`s pretty much how he acted when he went to the Daily Show, completely disarmed John with quibbles about wording, kept smiling and took the lead.

Wonder how one with Cheney would go.

Pretty similarly, if The World According to Dick Cheney was any indication.
 
Man, fuck that spa discussion.
I refuse to accept the notion that we must make people who live on public assistance as miserable as possible, otherwise they'll never look for their bootstraps.
Fuck that shit, if there are people who abuse the system or do not deserve to be on that program, we need to find them, but for fuck's sake, people in the US stay in poor due to lack of opportunity, not because they're living the good life (not to mention that anyone that thinks that as a whole, public housing in the US is a desirable place to live should go get their head checked).
You can't just look at your own view. You need to look at the politics of it. Build a fancy hot tub, a sauna, a weight room, etc. . . . and then get thrown out of office as the opposition films a commercial in those fancy facilities that the welfare queens get for free while your taxes go up.
 
Silver's prognosis

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To be fair people were saying Democrats would lose the Senate around this time 2 years ago too.

Silver badly misfired on North Dakota and Montana's Senate races because he went with his gut over the available polling data that showed Heitkamp and Tester in the lead.

I don't really disagree with him though, but as you all know my predictions tend to fall on the more optimistic side of things.
 
To be fair people were saying Democrats would lose the Senate around this time 2 years ago too.

Silver badly misfired on North Dakota and Montana's Senate races because he went with his gut over the available polling data that showed Heitkamp and Tester in the lead.

I don't really disagree with him though, but as you all know my predictions tend to fall on the more optimistic side of things.

But the polling data is also pointing to a GOP take over this time around.
 
But the polling data is also pointing to a GOP take over this time around.

It is March. Don't start Diablosing. Obamacare is still getting bad coverage and Putin just took over Crimea. I suspect there will be a surge in Obamacare sign-ups as the procrasti-Nation signs up for the ACA. And the Crimea thing will blow over.

Who knows? New things could happen which tilt things even more in the GOP's favor. But I don't see the current situation as telling for the later election. I think Grimes could pull a surprise win over turtle-man.
 
Nate Silver said:
Furthermore, much of the polling comes from firms such as Rasmussen Reports and Public Policy Polling, which have poor track records, employ dubious methodologies, or both.
Oh what the fuck ever.

He's not worth taking seriously this round. Sorry everyone.
 

pigeon

Banned
But the polling data is also pointing to a GOP take over this time around.

It's worth reading Silver's actual article, in which he explicitly states what you can glean from the numbers -- this is not, at this stage of the game, an ironclad prediction by any means. It really just says says what we all already know -- if Hagan, Landrieu, Walsh and Pryor all lose, and Democrats can't win Georgia or Kentucky, then the GOP will take the chamber. Walsh and Pryor are both probably screwed, so it's mostly about finding a way to protect Hagan or Landrieu, actually beating McConnell (which is not easy), or finding a route to turnout in Georgia.

edit:
538 said:
There are 10 races that each party has at least a 25 percent chance of winning, according to our ratings. If Republicans were to win all of them, they would gain a net of 11 seats from Democrats, which would give them a 56-44 majority in the new Senate. If Democrats were to sweep, they would lose a net of just one seat and hold a 54-46 majority.

So our forecast might be thought of as a Republican gain of six seats — plus or minus five. The balance has shifted slightly toward the GOP. But it wouldn’t take much for it to revert to the Democrats, nor for this year to develop into a Republican rout along the lines of 2010.
 

Averon

Member
Not really surprised if the GOP re-take he Senate. I never really understood why so many Dems sit out on mid-term elections and only seem to care to vote on presidential election years.
 

zargle

Member
I have a few questions about the healthcare signups that I am looking for an outside perspective on, hoping some people here can help me out. Sorry if this gets lengthy.

I just finished going through the application process (I had a bunch of issues going through the process/website in jan, early feb, partly due to website and partly due to Ohio being indecisive and bad, I think) and have selected a plan. It tells me my plan will start when I make my first premium payment and then will kick in in about a month.

I am job hunting at the moment, and have an interview in a week and hopefully one or two more within a few weeks (leads through friends, so fingers crossed). So my questions are:
- If I get this job, can I cancel the insurance through the marketplace before it goes into effect May 1?
- Can I just delay paying that first premium until I know if I get the job or not?
- If I do delay making the payment, that will push the start date back, correct?
- And finally, if I delay making the payment beyond March 31st, am I even going to be able to get the insurance at all or what exactly is deadlined by this deadline?

Thanks in advance for any clarity you can provide, just a few things I am worried about as I go through this. Kicking myself for not just getting this thing done earlier/being so horribly god awful at job-hunting.
 
It is March. Don't start Diablosing. Obamacare is still getting bad coverage and Putin just took over Crimea. I suspect there will be a surge in Obamacare sign-ups as the procrasti-Nation signs up for the ACA. And the Crimea thing will blow over.

Who knows? New things could happen which tilt things even more in the GOP's favor. But I don't see the current situation as telling for the later election. I think Grimes could pull a surprise win over turtle-man.

2013 showed that you never know what's going to happen. No one expected Obama to have a historically bad year, or to become a lame duck president so fast.

Obamacare should begin to fade from headlines at some point, but then again republicans have been very good about staging this. From the website to people losing insurance, now to the "bububu how many have paid" meme...they're in this for the long run.

The problem is that democrats don't have any recent accomplishments to run on, and republicans seem to have the momentum on their side. We'll see.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Nate Silver said:
First, most of the generic ballot polls were conducted among registered voters. Those do not reflect the turnout advantage the GOP is likely to have in November. Especially in recent years, Democrats have come to rely on groups such as racial minorities and young voters that turn out much more reliably in presidential years than for the midterms. In 2010, the Republican turnout advantage amounted to the equivalent of 6 percentage points, meaning a tie on the generic ballot among registered voters translated into a six-point Republican lead among likely voters. The GOP’s edge hadn’t been quite that large in past years. But if the “enthusiasm gap” is as large this year as it was in 2010, Democrats will have a difficult time keeping the Senate.

I highly doubt the turnout gap will be exactly that bad again. 2010 was a unique situation where Republicans were extra motivated and democrats were extra disenfranchised thanks to how terribly healthcare reform went down, when everyone was pissed about an individual mandate. It still annoys me how Obama, Reid, and Pelosi wouldn't say anything about the specifics of why ACA will help out people, they basically just said super generic "this is good" and "we need this" statements like we're supposed to take them on their word.

The "You have to pass the bill to find out what's in it" quote pretty much summed up the entire atmosphere. It really motivated republicans when taken out of context, and in context she's still just saying "wait until the ACA affects you, then you'll see how great it is" which isn't exactly motivating to Democrats right then and there.

I highly doubt we'll see anything bungled that badly this year, and democrats are clearly at least attempting to motivate the base this time with talk about inequality, minimum wage, and the Koch brothers.
 
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