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PoliGAF 2015-2016 |OT3| If someone named PhoenixDark leaves your party, call the cops
- Thread starter Diablos
- Start date
- Status
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
The GOP kind of aligning with Trump to cut off Cruz's head is strange. Cruz must be the biggest dickhead in the history of dickheads.
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
I don't know. Trump isn't exactly a complete conservative package like Cruz is. He goes all in on the racist side the party, but is pretty moderate in a lot of other respects.
We certainly shouldn't ignore how far out he is on the policies that obviously stand out, but I can certainly see how conservatives might ignore it.
It's very easy to forget how much the GOP hates Cruz when everyone is panicked over Trump.
Yeah that's certainly possible.
His more liberal positions get hand-waved as either the media lying or some version of that mangled Churchill quote about age and conservatism, but if he loses the verdict on Trump might be that he was a New York huckster who wasn't really the conservative candidate of the party's dreams.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Certainly an eclectic appeal to the far left (note: relative to US politics) and the far right on certain issues independent of each other will produce a centrist candidate.
This is bog standard "both sides do it!" centrist journalism. You should know that already, dawg.
Sanders supporters is a good definition, I think. Trump's already the backup candidate for a number of them.
neurosisxeno
Member
Not all Sanders supporters are Far Left. But I could be bias considering I live in VT and my Step-Dad who has voted Republican since 2000 said he plans on voting for Bernie of anyone in the Republican field.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Remember naive Monkey Cage writers that thought Jeb! coming out against the Confederate Flag meant that the Southern Strategy was over:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...confederate-flag-and-hello-to-a-new-strategy/
Quite arguably the worst prediction made in all of 2015.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...confederate-flag-and-hello-to-a-new-strategy/
Quite arguably the worst prediction made in all of 2015.
Basileus777
Member
Is there any evidence of this? A few angry people on the internet doesn't count.
neurosisxeno
Member
That college's prediction of Sanders vs. Jeb! resulting in a landslide for the Dems was pretty awful. It was hard explaining to my friends in state that there's no way those results ever happened--as in, no way Hillary being nominated means the Dem's somehow lose Hawaii and Maryland or Sanders miraculously wins half the South.
https://twitter.com/SopanDeb/status/681525874458497024
I don't think this has been investigated by pollsters. I didn't mean it was a major trend, anyway. However, Bernie believes he has crossover appeal to Trump supporters.
Retromelon
Member
Im ok poodlestrike. Haters gonna..well you know the rest.
Now, we all laugh, but it was serious!
I don't know if you remember, but once upon a time, there was a person that predicted scott walker would win the republican nomination.
Now, we all laugh, but it was serious!
vicissitudes
Banned
In the general? His appeal would be he's the "not-Clinton" candidate.
If you're far left there's other not-clinton options though.
I actually do think Trump might have appeal to people who would possibly vote left otherwise, but if I'm going to guess like everybody else it would be middle class to working poor who've had declining incomes and don't object to getting into trade wars, but I don't know if anyone would seriously call those types the far left.
I actually do think Trump might have appeal to people who would possibly vote left otherwise, but if I'm going to guess like everybody else it would be middle class to working poor who've had declining incomes and don't object to getting into trade wars, but I don't know if anyone would seriously call those types the far left.
User 463088
Banned
This may be the cocktail talking (It was my reward. I've managed to stick with my diet and exercise program for three weeks now. I"m up to 10 miles a day on my bike and 45 minutes of exercise on top of that. I want to fucking die. But I'm seeing improvements)
Anyway, if Trump wanted to pivot for the General, there are a few things he could do. First, he's said that he's self-paying, so he could hit Hillary with the Super PACs thing. That may get a few of Bernie's supporters who see this as a central issue into giving him a look. If he can also get the "I'm a celebrity vote for me for the lulz" demographic to actually vote, that might help him too. I don't know how many of these people actually exist, but I'm guessing they're not typical voters. Could be a group to help him. A foreign policy blunder would play to him as well, as insane as that sounds. He could also hope that the non-politician bug is strong among those who aren't primary voters.
Interestingly, I think Donald Trump could make the best case for single payer out of everyone. Just hear me out. If Bernie or Hillary does it, they're just wanting more government take over. Even if they frame it in terms of cost cutting/saving whatever, it's still going to be seen as big government. Trump could position himself as a businessman who wants it to help businesses grow. He could argue that having to work with the insurance companies makes it harder for him to be profitable and the increased legislation from the ACA means he can't be as competitive globally. He can then say that Medicare works, and all we have to do is open it to everyone. He gains support on the right by tying it to Medicare (which the old folks love) and he can throw out some bull shit about getting rid of Medicaid (so the poor people don't get anything better than the hard working whites amiright? And he's such a good businessman, he knows that you have to negotiate with drug companies and DME companies, so that has to be included. Because who is stupid enough to not know how to haggle in Trump's America? Obviously, there would still be resistance...but how much weight would it hold when a GOP Senator says Donald Trump wants to remove capital from the free market? The attacks against the ACA worked because they fit into the "Big spending liberal" stereotype. Not so with Trump.
Anyway, if Trump wanted to pivot for the General, there are a few things he could do. First, he's said that he's self-paying, so he could hit Hillary with the Super PACs thing. That may get a few of Bernie's supporters who see this as a central issue into giving him a look. If he can also get the "I'm a celebrity vote for me for the lulz" demographic to actually vote, that might help him too. I don't know how many of these people actually exist, but I'm guessing they're not typical voters. Could be a group to help him. A foreign policy blunder would play to him as well, as insane as that sounds. He could also hope that the non-politician bug is strong among those who aren't primary voters.
Interestingly, I think Donald Trump could make the best case for single payer out of everyone. Just hear me out. If Bernie or Hillary does it, they're just wanting more government take over. Even if they frame it in terms of cost cutting/saving whatever, it's still going to be seen as big government. Trump could position himself as a businessman who wants it to help businesses grow. He could argue that having to work with the insurance companies makes it harder for him to be profitable and the increased legislation from the ACA means he can't be as competitive globally. He can then say that Medicare works, and all we have to do is open it to everyone. He gains support on the right by tying it to Medicare (which the old folks love) and he can throw out some bull shit about getting rid of Medicaid (so the poor people don't get anything better than the hard working whites amiright? And he's such a good businessman, he knows that you have to negotiate with drug companies and DME companies, so that has to be included. Because who is stupid enough to not know how to haggle in Trump's America? Obviously, there would still be resistance...but how much weight would it hold when a GOP Senator says Donald Trump wants to remove capital from the free market? The attacks against the ACA worked because they fit into the "Big spending liberal" stereotype. Not so with Trump.
I'm honestly not expecting much of a "pivot" from Trump. He's doubled down on absolutely everything, even when the entire country was in obvious shock at what he said. He may flesh out some of his more economically populist mouth-droppings at some point, but I think he'll still keep it firmly in the context of benefiting the angry white middle while continuing to stoke the xenophobia hard. If he ends up getting the nomination and general election polls are heavily against him, I'd expect a, "You saw how high my polls were before, this is clearly a conspiracy!" before I'd expect a triangulation.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I have a feeling this Cruz thing is going to get real traction fairly quickly and eventually cause his downfall.
"I told him, he's a great guy, I love him, I told him to head this whole thing off, go to court, make sure there's no question here, but he didn't do it, he didn't go to court, why didn't he go to court? It was the smart move, but he didn't do it. So maybe there is a question here? I really hope there isn't, but maybe there is? People keep talking."
I think I posted about this a couple of months ago, but people really underestimate how *loathed* Cruz is by the people who know him. There's a substantial part of the republican establishment and donors who will contribute towards Hilary if Cruz is the nominee.
I cannot think of a top tier candidate from either party in my lifetime who is disliked as much as Cruz by the party bigwigs. Loathed is the only word I can think of to sum it up.
disastermouse
Banned
I'm not arguing that this isn't true, but it's mind-boggling when seen up close.
disastermouse
Banned
A. Where can you possibly live where you can bike 10 miles/day in January?
B. Your Trump theory for single payer is actually brilliant and it might actually happen that way. He can say he's removing a burden for business (which is actually true) and he'd only be demonizing insurance companies, which everyone already hates anyway. He's not taking their money to campaign so he doesn't have to pretend that they aren't awful.
FloydtheFathead
Member
It always is funny to me that a devoted atheist is trotted as a hero to the conservatives..
I am curious how he could even attempt to get away from the statements of pure fuckery he has said so far. How do you even attempt to go about fixing this.
I think people are getting really good at writing fake Donald Trump statements.. Because this is exactly how I picture him talking about this.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
IBD/TIPP national poll: Clinton 43 - Sanders 39
Threadworthy?
Their last was 51-33 in early December, more or less in line with everyone else (slightly higher DK proportion than the norm). Movement is 6 from Clinton to Sanders, 2 from Clinton to Don't Know, O'Malley steady.
Threadworthy?
Their last was 51-33 in early December, more or less in line with everyone else (slightly higher DK proportion than the norm). Movement is 6 from Clinton to Sanders, 2 from Clinton to Don't Know, O'Malley steady.
Let it lie.
If you do that people will just keep making threads for every individual poll again, and look how that turned out last time.
Or at least wait until last week of January. Even then we would probably have Iowa primary thread.
Who is doing the Iowa primary thread anyway? Are we having one for both R and D or individual threads?
If you do that people will just keep making threads for every individual poll again, and look how that turned out last time.
Or at least wait until last week of January. Even then we would probably have Iowa primary thread.
Who is doing the Iowa primary thread anyway? Are we having one for both R and D or individual threads?
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Sure, but I think this is pretty damn significant poll. It's the first ever to show Sanders in a statistical tie at a national level. Like, that's an absolute earthquake. Nobody called that.
I'll wait for y2kev to give the go ahead, but I'm fairly sure most would find this threadworthy.
EDIT: My vote is to keep the Iowa primaries in one thread; it's almost definitely going to be the same people in both.
Orbis Tabula
Member
I think Trump could absolutely do a pivot in the general, and I think the same way a lot of you guys do. He doesn't start disavowing the things he's already said and doubled down on. He keeps the wall, he keeps the xenophobia and suspicion towards Muslims. He just adds far left ideas. He runs on his current ideas, plus single payer. Plus campaign finance reform. Hell, he could even throw a bone towards some level of environmental protection, if he felt like it. His supporters would probably be receptive to a lot of left ideas provided they came from a Republican they love. In addition, he'd get support from a lot of the people who think that both parties suck, are too rigid in their views, and need to compromise with each other. The sort of people who think that both parties are right about half the stuff, and wrong about the other half. Suddenly, they would see a conservative pushing liberal ideas. An outsider who beat the politicians. It's all surface level stuff, but they'd see that. He wouldn't get a lot of the core of the Democratic party, but I think he could wrap up a lot of independents and people who are loosely Dem. I know a lot of people who consider themselves liberal, as most millennials do, but it's in large part because they support things like gay marriage. Most don't care about economics or foreign policy. Trump could grab them if he played his cards right.
I mean, the strategy basically still boils down to running up his support among white Americans, but it could work.
I'm not sure it would. I'm not saying he will do this, or he will be successful with it. Only that it's possible. The biggest obstacle in the way of that path is that if he says anything left-wingish and it starts to work for him, it's trivial for Hillary to co-opt it. He supports single-player, then she'll support it too. Which would be cool, because then we'd get it either way.
I mean, the strategy basically still boils down to running up his support among white Americans, but it could work.
I'm not sure it would. I'm not saying he will do this, or he will be successful with it. Only that it's possible. The biggest obstacle in the way of that path is that if he says anything left-wingish and it starts to work for him, it's trivial for Hillary to co-opt it. He supports single-player, then she'll support it too. Which would be cool, because then we'd get it either way.
Veritigo_X
Member
Man, Trump's price on PredictIt has skyrocketed over the past couple days. Is it the Cruz birther stuff causing it?
Edit: Aw, Cerium is banned. I kinda wanted to see where he's sitting now.
Edit: Aw, Cerium is banned. I kinda wanted to see where he's sitting now.
Black Republican
Member
More proof where potential cruz supporters/staffers will go when Ben quits:
NH paid superpac staff to Cruz volunteer
http://www.wmur.com/politics/nh-staff-at-procarson-super-pac-quits-to-volunteer-for-cruz/37366860
NH paid superpac staff to Cruz volunteer
http://www.wmur.com/politics/nh-staff-at-procarson-super-pac-quits-to-volunteer-for-cruz/37366860
Single payer won't be worth it if it means that the lives of brown and black people in this country become a living fucking nightmare. Make no mistake, any economic populist policies from Trump are going to come along with an even bigger ramp up of tough-on-crime abuses and rollback of civil rights in the name of border security or the War on Terror. Any crossover from white liberals is going to be because they don't care about this.
disastermouse
Banned
A lot of them don't. Enough of them? Hard to tell, but sadly, I think so.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
That's quite a lot of white "liberals", though. The Democrats have always had trouble reconciling the old industrial working-class whites with the identity politics aspect; there's a lot of quite explicit racism and xenophobia at that level because of the fears about employment and so on. Trump spells trouble for that demographic because he's selling (at face) economically Democratic stuff (like universal healthcare) with a nice pot of Republican discrimination.
I'm never entirely convinced by Trump's polling, because I suspect he's a pretty good analogue for UKIP in the UK or the Front National in France. They both have a tendency to outperform their polling numbers because people don't like to admit they'd vote for a racist but are pretty comfortable doing so in the polling booth.
I also think that's why Sanders does especially well against Trump relative to Clinton - he focuses much more on the economic stuff than the identity stuff. Even if they have broadly very similar platforms, Clinton and Sanders focus on different bits of it and Sanders bit is more appealing to people who might potentially be won over by Trump.
Orbis Tabula
Member
Oh, don't get me wrong, I absolutely agree. I don't think I could ever convince myself to support Donald Trump. But I do think that he has an opportunity to get these white liberals because, as many people have noted, there are many that don't really care about issues of race. They have only supported them as a matter of convenience because they've been bundled up with other more liberal ideas under the Democrat banner.
I just want to make sure we consistently push back on any thought that a Trump presidency might not be so bad because X. I know you weren't actually supporting the idea, but saying something like, "Which would be cool, because then we'd get it either way." is privileged thinking. It really wouldn't be for minorities. Even if there was a choice between single payer from Trump or just continuing to tinker with the ACA from Hillary, Hillary would still be the right way to go. Racism is at the core of our nation's problems, and this shit just can't continue.
Orbis Tabula
Member
Yeah, you're absolutely right. That was my bad. Donald Trump would definitely be a disastrous President for a large portion of our population.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Ugh, I really want the tables for that IBD/TIPP poll. For Sanders to be only 4 behind nationally, some demographics must have seen a massive shift because it's not really like he has much room to do better with white liberals than he already is.
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
January can be a volatile month in polling as people finally start paying attention. Still need more polls but it wouldn't be unpresidented for major movements to happen.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Literally all of them will show Hillary 10+. Well, Quinnipiac maybe +8 or something.
Abinash117
Member
She already talks about campaign reform and I think planned on improving Obamacare. I think she has details on both of them too. Either way I fail to see how Trump can really run the left on Hillary on those two issues unless he keeps repeating that America should have a single payer without unveiling a detailed plan anytime soon after. I also fail to see how Trump is capable of going 'center' with only a few issues. That doesn't necessarily make a lot of sense, after the fact he has so many crazy to far right ideas him 'moderating' on a few issues and capturing any large portions of some demographics doesn't seem likely.
I do see him reaching to people who either are basically single issue voters and those who really don't know much about politics and policies. But Hillary and the democratic party can just keep highlighting his xenophobic views and lack of coherent detailed ideas.
Elaugaufein
Member
I think GAF tends to be very supportive of identity politics in ways that aren't necessarily generally reflective of the population. There's a non-negligible tendency to embrace some rather traditionally right wing ideas in its pursuit that come up (pro-censorship, disdain for supporters of free speech, increased employer control over employees when they aren't at work, the digital evolution of mob justice,etc). That doesn't necessarily have the same broad support even amongst white collar liberal voters that it does on GAF.
People can easily have complete disdain for things like unjustified violence against minorities (especially state violence), support equal pay for jobs of equivalent skill and equal access to those jobs,irrelevant of gender and race, support giving all groups as fair a start as possible, be supportive of people in non-heterosexual relationships enjoying the same rights and privileges as those who are in heterosexual relationships and think Republican economic policies consist mainly of wishful thinking, BS and fairie dust and still be treated like they are one step away from voting for a Republican on GAF.
You should be careful with this line of thinking. It's not unusual for very socially right parties in Europe and Australia to have some incredibly leftist economic policies in the context of their favoured groups. The Australian Nationals are part of our conservative Coalition (along with the Liberal Party) and they are super-socially conservative but in the context of farmers and graziers and economic policy they are well too the left of the Labor party, the Nationals favour socialized support of farmers and graziers, strong protectionism in markets, and giving concessions in other areas in trade treaties to improve the export position of farmers / defend them against imports. It's not even particularly odd historically: the Catholic Chuch has preached similar positions for centuries (even if they didn't abide by them). It's a surprisingly effective mix given appropriate demographics (the Nationals tend to have more to fear from even further Right Social / In-Group Left Economically parties that crop up from time to time than they do from either of our centrist parties, in their strong areas) .
People can easily have complete disdain for things like unjustified violence against minorities (especially state violence), support equal pay for jobs of equivalent skill and equal access to those jobs,irrelevant of gender and race, support giving all groups as fair a start as possible, be supportive of people in non-heterosexual relationships enjoying the same rights and privileges as those who are in heterosexual relationships and think Republican economic policies consist mainly of wishful thinking, BS and fairie dust and still be treated like they are one step away from voting for a Republican on GAF.
You should be careful with this line of thinking. It's not unusual for very socially right parties in Europe and Australia to have some incredibly leftist economic policies in the context of their favoured groups. The Australian Nationals are part of our conservative Coalition (along with the Liberal Party) and they are super-socially conservative but in the context of farmers and graziers and economic policy they are well too the left of the Labor party, the Nationals favour socialized support of farmers and graziers, strong protectionism in markets, and giving concessions in other areas in trade treaties to improve the export position of farmers / defend them against imports. It's not even particularly odd historically: the Catholic Chuch has preached similar positions for centuries (even if they didn't abide by them). It's a surprisingly effective mix given appropriate demographics (the Nationals tend to have more to fear from even further Right Social / In-Group Left Economically parties that crop up from time to time than they do from either of our centrist parties, in their strong areas) .
Veritigo_X
Member
ARG NH poll (1/7-1/10):
Trump 25% (+4)
Rubio 14% (-1)
Kasich 14% (+1)
Christie 10% (-2)
Cruz 9% (-1)
Jeb 8% (+1)
Kasichmentum in NH now? Either way that establishment split is a beautiful thing to see.
Trump 25% (+4)
Rubio 14% (-1)
Kasich 14% (+1)
Christie 10% (-2)
Cruz 9% (-1)
Jeb 8% (+1)
Kasichmentum in NH now? Either way that establishment split is a beautiful thing to see.
Dat Rubio surge is coming, I can taste it. Also that's not a good look for Cruz, and really puts into perspective how ridiculous Iowa having any significance is.
Its fucking Iowa. Man, this process..
Elaugaufein
Member
It's actually interesting that the Establishment is outpolling those running as Outsiders there (Trump and Cruz only have 34% of the vote, even if you count Rubio as a Tea Partier it's still under 50%.). Though whatever the "none of the above" option is is winning 2nd place with 19% of the vote.
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