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PoliGAF 2015-2016 |OT3| If someone named PhoenixDark leaves your party, call the cops

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D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
The Republican side is so interesting right now because you need to meet a 10% bar in any state to get awarded delegates, but Iowa and NH are so fundamentally different there's very little overlap and almost no candidates bar Trump consistently get over 10% in both states. Trump could very well be the only candidate to get delegates from both states.
 
T

theprodigy

Member
Crab said:
The Republican side is so interesting right now because you need to meet a 10% bar in any state to get awarded delegates, but Iowa and NH are so fundamentally different there's very little overlap and almost no candidates bar Trump consistently get over 10% in both states. Trump could very well be the only candidate to get delegates from both states.
Click to expand...

Wait, Iowa has a 10% threshold?
 
F

Fuchsdh

Member
Abinash117 said:
She already talks about campaign reform and I think planned on improving Obamacare. I think she has details on both of them too. Either way I fail to see how Trump can really run the left on Hillary on those two issues unless he keeps repeating that America should have a single payer without unveiling a detailed plan anytime soon after. I also fail to see how Trump is capable of going 'center' with only a few issues. That doesn't necessarily make a lot of sense, after the fact he has so many crazy to far right ideas him 'moderating' on a few issues and capturing any large portions of some demographics doesn't seem likely.

I do see him reaching to people who either are basically single issue voters and those who really don't know much about politics and policies. But Hillary and the democratic party can just keep highlighting his xenophobic views and lack of coherent detailed ideas.
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I think the issue is you're classifying Trump as far right. And certainly when looking at the Republican field he can be viewed that way, but at his core he's a populist candidate, an even better one than Sanders. As such in the general I don't see it being particularly hard to move to the center, if only by aggregate of left and right positions.

Big Green Anus said:
I hope that's the case, but the way Trump has been messaging his campaign to his supporters has me very worried.
Click to expand...

Ugly language aside, you "only" inspire a few crazies with that sort of talk. There's not going to be any wide-scale revolts or riots in the street. Take Trump and put him in a different political environment and yeah, his words could do a lot more damage.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
theprodigy said:
Wait, Iowa has a 10% threshold?
Click to expand...

I think so. I might be wrong, that's only from memory and I can't find a good schedule online anywhere. NH is *definitely* 10%, I remember that clearly. Almost all of them are slightly different because each is decided by the local party for that state; the primary system in general (for both parties) is massively undemocratic fuckup.
 
A

A Human Becoming

More than a Member
Blah, the lost debate Fox Business hosted was terrible; disappointed. Guess I'll be looking forward to the one in Iowa.
Veritigo_X said:
ARG NH poll (1/7-1/10):

Trump 25% (+4)
Rubio 14% (-1)
Kasich 14% (+1)
Christie 10% (-2)
Cruz 9% (-1)
Jeb 8% (+1)

Kasichmentum in NH now? Either way that establishment split is a beautiful thing to see.
Click to expand...
Carson at 2% lol The house with the six Carson signs I passed yesterday hasn't given up!
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Oh well.

http://www.nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/01/john_bel_edwards_doesnt_get_hi.html

The Louisiana House of Representatives broke ranks with Edwards and picked a Republican, New Iberia Rep. Taylor Barras, as their speaker with 56 of the 105 House members votes. Edwards had been backing another candidate, New Orleans Democrat Walt Leger
Click to expand...

Outside groups -- particularly anti-abortion and conservative Christian organizations -- got heavily involved in speaker's race, pressuring members not to vote for Leger. They threatened to campaign against any conservative candidate who backed Leger in the next election cycle.
Click to expand...

Yet:

Stephanie Grace ‏@stephgracenola 4m4 minutes ago
Now there's a move, led by Republicans, to reelect Leger as Speaker Pro Tem. Both other candidates withdraw. #lalege
Click to expand...

Stephanie Grace ‏@stephgracenola 44s45 seconds ago
Worth nothing that this was not a personal rejection of Leger, who is clearly popular and respected by both sides. #lalege
Click to expand...

Stephanie Grace ‏@stephgracenola 10m10 minutes ago
Leger's loss is also a big blow for the city of New Orleans and its agenda #lalege
Click to expand...

Terrible
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Missouri trying to pass an "All Lives Matter" bill to try to ban abortion, IUDs, and day after pills because they are completely fucked in the head:

Rep. Mike Moon of the Missouri State House sponsored a bill called the All Lives Matter Act, which would define a fetus or embryo as a "person" from the moment of conception. It would also get rid of language that requires the state's existing "fetal personhood" law to comply with the US Constitution and other Supreme Court jurisprudence like Roe v. Wade — language that saved the original fetal personhood law from being struck down by the Supreme Court in the first place.

Fetal personhood laws can put abortion rights and even contraception rights at risk, and they are so extreme that even voters in conservative states like Mississippi repeatedly reject them at the ballot box. But that doesn't stop conservative lawmakers from trying to pass them in one form or another. And reproductive justice advocates say that calling this particular bill the All Lives Matter Act is a finger in the eye of women of color in particular.

"By sponsoring this bill, Rep. Moon suggests that the state of Missouri codify into law the assertion that Black women are killing their own children, are incapable of making decisions about their own bodies, and cannot control their sexual desires," writes Christine Assefa at the Feminist Wire. "All of these characterizations perpetuate historical, violent, and harmful stereotypes of Black women that reveal the deeply-rooted relationship between race and sexual politics."
Click to expand...

"We're saving more black lives than BLM by stopping those dumb n- I mean, welfare queens from murdering their own babies!"

Choke on a dick and die, Missouri lawmakers.

http://www.vox.com/2016/1/10/10745722/all-lives-matter-abortion
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Donald Trump/Mike Moon 2016:

Missouri state Rep. Mike Moon (R) is calling for a special legislative session to halt "the potential Islamization of Missouri," The Kansas City Star reported Wednesday.

Moon made the request to Speaker of the House Todd Richardson (R) in an undated letter after Gov. Jay Nixon (D) said he would not block the potential resettlement of Syrian refugees in his state after Friday's deadly attacks in Paris.

"For the safety of Missourians, we can ill-afford to wait," Moon wrote in the letter. "I ask that you begin the process of calling the General Assembly into Special Session in order to tie the Governor's hands, putting a stop to the potential Islamization of Missouri."
Click to expand...

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/mike-moon-syria-refugee-missouri-legislation
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Veritigo_X said:
Man, Trump's price on PredictIt has skyrocketed over the past couple days. Is it the Cruz birther stuff causing it?

Edit: Aw, Cerium is banned. I kinda wanted to see where he's sitting now.
Click to expand...

He's gotta be up a huge amount because I'm up $30 and I only put down like $50. If I were in his shoes I'd be selling right now, a $300 (estimated) gain would be too good for me to pass up.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
The big shift in the IBD/TIPP poll was in Hispanic voters - now 37-33 Clinton (although with a fairly large margin of error) and in moderate Democrats, who are now split 44-37 (again large margin of error, as comes with all sub demographic analysis). The movement in both exceeds the margin, though, so we can be fairly confident that Hispanic and moderate Democrats are moving towards Sanders away from Clinton. Black voters remain more or less static; no sign of change there. Sanders worst demographic isn't minority voters, though - it's now old voters, which is a change (normally he did worse amongst minorities than old people).

This is really a generational divide between millenials and boomers being expressed politically. Regardless of what you think of Sanders vs. Clinton, I think we can be relatively confident that Sandersesque candidates are the future of the Democratic party.

Sanders is ahead in the West, East, and North-east; he only comes out behind because Clinton's lead in the South is so large.
 
S

Selner

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Missouri trying to pass an "All Lives Matter" bill to try to ban abortion, IUDs, and day after pills because they are completely fucked in the head:



"We're saving more black lives than BLM by stopping those dumb n- I mean, welfare queens from murdering their own babies!"

Choke on a dick and die, Missouri lawmakers.

http://www.vox.com/2016/1/10/10745722/all-lives-matter-abortion
Click to expand...

That would effectively make any IVF illegal, right?
As that involves the harvesting of eggs, trying to fertlizing them all, seeing which ones make it and putting them back.

Each fertilized egg that doesn't "make it" would be murder in the eyes of that bill.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Two polls from NH with Kasich at 14%, where is the Kasimentum coming from?

Selner said:
That would effectively make any IVF illegal, right?
As that involves the harvesting of eggs, trying to fertlizing them all, seeing which ones make it and putting them back.

Each fertilized egg that doesn't "make it" would be murder in the eyes of that bill.
Click to expand...

Oh, don't worry, they'll make sure to put exceptions in the bill that allow IVF because reasons like how respectable women go to fertility clinics while only whores get abortions. Don't be silly.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
PBY said:
Rubio coming in 4th in NH would be DISASTROUS.
Click to expand...
It would be hysterical.

Bounces out of Iowa aren't usually very sizeable, but in this close-cut scenario it could be the difference between Cruz getting second or third in New Hampshire. With his money and ground org, he could do it.

I'd love for this to really end-up being a Trump vs Cruz race.

===

And its inauguration time! Hallelujah!
(Bummed about the speaker. Glad that the ass from Metairie didn't get it.)

Good riddance, Bobby!
*hock*
*spit*
 
A

Abinash117

Member
You should be careful with this line of thinking. It's not unusual for very socially right parties in Europe and Australia to have some incredibly leftist economic policies in the context of their favoured groups. The Australian Nationals are part of our conservative Coalition (along with the Liberal Party) and they are super-socially conservative but in the context of farmers and graziers and economic policy they are well too the left of the Labor party, the Nationals favour socialized support of farmers and graziers, strong protectionism in markets, and giving concessions in other areas in trade treaties to improve the export position of farmers / defend them against imports. It's not even particularly odd historically: the Catholic Chuch has preached similar positions for centuries (even if they didn't abide by them). It's a surprisingly effective mix given appropriate demographics (the Nationals tend to have more to fear from even further Right Social / In-Group Left Economically parties that crop up from time to time than they do from either of our centrist parties, in their strong areas) .
Click to expand...

I know people can have a mixed positions of left and right policies. I sometimes talk about some people at reddit being "brogressives" or basically having a lot of progressive ideals, but not caring or having conservative views on guns, women's right, or minority issues. I'm saying that I don't buy that Donald Trump successfully going to the center with only a few issues and somehow highlighting those over many other things he proposed that is crazy or far right.



Crab said:
The big shift in the IBD/TIPP poll was in Hispanic voters - now 37-33 Clinton (although with a fairly large margin of error) and in moderate Democrats, who are now split 44-37 (again large margin of error, as comes with all sub demographic analysis). The movement in both exceeds the margin, though, so we can be fairly confident that Hispanic and moderate Democrats are moving towards Sanders away from Clinton. Black voters remain more or less static; no sign of change there. Sanders worst demographic isn't minority voters, though - it's now old voters, which is a change (normally he did worse amongst minorities than old people).

This is really a generational divide between millenials and boomers being expressed politically. Regardless of what you think of Sanders vs. Clinton, I think we can be relatively confident that Sandersesque candidates are the future of the Democratic party.

Sanders is ahead in the West, East, and North-east; he only comes out behind because Clinton's lead in the South is so large.
Click to expand...


Unless Bernie made huge inroads with Hispanics and we didn't know about it, I some parts of that poll looks odd.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
HylianTom said:
It would be hysterical.

Bounces out of Iowa aren't usually very sizeable, but in this close-cut scenario it could be the difference between Cruz getting second or third in New Hampshire. With his money and ground org, he could do it.

I'd love for this to really end-up being a Trump vs Cruz race.

===

And its inauguration time! Hallelujah!
(Bummed about the speaker. Glad that the ass from Metairie didn't get it.)

Good riddance, Bobby!
*hock*
*spit*
Click to expand...

Medicaid Expansion is here.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
I can't see this being *just* a Cruz-Trump race; there's enough establishment voters that once they coalesce their candidate can be at least reasonably competitive. But I do think that the early states are going to be Cruz-Trump, just because the establishment are all in big game of chicken: the early any of them pulls out, the better the establishment does but the worse they as a candidate do (on account of not being in the race any more). All of them are going to hope that if they stay in a little longer, one of the others will pull out, and they'll be the recipient of those votes.
 
M

Makai

Member
I no longer think a Trump-Cruz ticket is possible. I bet he promises his supporters "great things" for Ted and leaves it at that. Then picks up somebody else.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Crab said:
I can't see this being *just* a Cruz-Trump race; there's enough establishment voters that once they coalesce their candidate can be at least reasonably competitive. But I do think that the early states are going to be Cruz-Trump, just because the establishment are all in big game of chicken: the early any of them pulls out, the better the establishment does but the worse they as a candidate do (on account of not being in the race any more). All of them are going to hope that if they stay in a little longer, one of the others will pull out, and they'll be the recipient of those votes.
Click to expand...
I could see that happening.

As a game of chicken goes on longer and longer, and Cruz-Trump begin to pull away in the delegate count and state wins as the establishment guys fight it out, I'm wondering if we'll see folks who would normally favor an establishment candidate become more convinced that they need to vote to prevent their less-liked candidate (of those two) from winning.

We're in uncharted territory - so fun!
 
V

Veritigo_X

Member
B-Dubs said:
He's gotta be up a huge amount because I'm up $30 and I only put down like $50. If I were in his shoes I'd be selling right now, a $300 (estimated) gain would be too good for me to pass up.
Click to expand...

I'd probably sell in that case too. I'm just looking at it as a small bet (opposed to how some people actually trade) so I'm riding the Trump train to the finish. If I had more money in I'd be buying and selling all the time.
 
P

PBY

Banned
HylianTom said:
I could see that happening.

As a game of chicken goes on longer and longer, and Cruz-Trump begin to pull away in the delegate count and state wins as the establishment guys fight it out, I'm wondering if we'll see folks who would normally favor an establishment candidate become more convinced that they need to vote to prevent their less-liked candidate (of those two) from winning.

We're in uncharted territory - so fun!
Click to expand...

In this game of chicken though, who flinches first? The voters or the candidates?
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Mother of god..

New Qpac poll:

Trump 31%
Cruz 29
Rubio 15
Carson 7
Christie 4

PBY said:
In this game of chicken though, who flinches first? The voters or the candidates?
Click to expand...
I am so very stumped (and rather enjoying the uncertainty). So many variables.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
HylianTom said:
Mother of god..

New Qpac poll:

Trump 31%
Cruz 29
Rubio 15
Carson 7
Christie 4
Click to expand...

That's their Iowa and not their national, right? If that's their national... holy fuck.

I am so very stumped (and rather enjoying the uncertainty). So many variables.
Click to expand...

I cannot possibly see the establishment figures not pulling out in time for at least one of them to be competitive. Lots of them have future careers at at least some level of the party... unless their people lose control of the party.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Do we have the Dem side? They're never favourable to Sanders from Qpac, but at the very least the movement should be replicated.
 
A

Abinash117

Member
Fuchsdh said:
I think the issue is you're classifying Trump as far right. And certainly when looking at the Republican field he can be viewed that way, but at his core he's a populist candidate, an even better one than Sanders. As such in the general I don't see it being particularly hard to move to the center, if only by aggregate of left and right positions.



Ugly language aside, you "only" inspire a few crazies with that sort of talk. There's not going to be any wide-scale revolts or riots in the street. Take Trump and put him in a different political environment and yeah, his words could do a lot more damage.
Click to expand...

I didn't say he was far right, I said he had far right and crazy ideas. I only see it easy in some of his ideas he already expressed like taxing the rich and maybe single payer. I don't see it over shadowing his other policies like bombing ISIL and taking their oil, his positions on immigration, banning Muslims, guns, dealing with terrorism, PP, comments about PC, and in general of "making America great again". His brand of policies is more like nationalistic populism with hints of paleoconservatism.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
B-Dubs said:
OK, I was shook for a minute thinking it was national.
Click to expand...
(Sorry about that.)

I'm still convinced that Cruz wins even if polls show Trump narrowly up, just due to ground strength..

But let me dream of this. The meltdowns if he won the first three contests. Man..
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Abinash117 said:
I didn't say he was far right, I said he had far right and crazy ideas. I only see it easy in some of his ideas he already expressed like taxing the rich and maybe single payer. I don't see it over shadowing his other policies like bombing ISIL and taking their oil, his positions on immigration, banning Muslims, guns, dealing with terrorism, PP, comments about PC, and in general of "making America great again". His brand of policies is more like nationalistic populism .
Click to expand...

lol Trump's tax plan is massively regressive:

trump_chart.jpg


http://www.vox.com/2015/12/22/10649210/donald-trump-tax-tpc
 
P

PBY

Banned
HylianTom said:
(Sorry about that.)

I'm still convinced that Cruz wins even if polls show Trump narrowly up, just due to ground strength..

But let me dream of this. The meltdowns if he won the first three contests. Man..
Click to expand...

But this birther stuff... wonder if that's reflected at all in this poll. Also curious what QP's last Iowa poll showed.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Ok real talk: by mid March, there is only going to be one establishment figure going unless things have literally gone to total shit.

Who will it be?
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Crab said:
Ok real talk: by mid March, there is only going to be one establishment figure going unless things have literally gone to total shit.

Who will it be?
Click to expand...

I believe that everything is fucked.

If everything is not fucked it has to be Rubio.
 
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