New USA Today/Suffolk national poll came out
(12/2-12/6)
Herr Drumf 27
Cruz 17
Rubio 16
Carson 10
Jeb 4
Christie 2
Holy shit, I fucking lost it. This is such a beautiful day.
New USA Today/Suffolk national poll came out
(12/2-12/6)
Herr Drumf 27
Cruz 17
Rubio 16
Carson 10
Jeb 4
Christie 2
Silver has estimated (I believe - correct me if I'm wrong) that about 8% of the total population supports Trump.
So if you believe that USA Today poll that 68% of that 8% would vote for an independent Trump in the general election, you're looking at about 5% of people who would vote for him in the general.
But keep in mind that that 5% wouldn't be evenly distributed across the country. It could be much higher than that in some states and much lower in others.
But of course getting this deep into the numbers at this point is still pretty silly to begin with.
Silver has estimated (I believe - correct me if I'm wrong) that about 8% of the total population supports Trump.
So if you believe that USA Today poll that 68% of that 8% would vote for an independent Trump in the general election, you're looking at about 5% of people who would vote for him in the general.
But keep in mind that that 5% wouldn't be evenly distributed across the country. It could be much higher than that in some states and much lower in others.
But of course getting this deep into the numbers at this point is still pretty silly to begin with.
This would just guarantee a GOP win. So I have to ask, why?
I think that undersells his support, though. I mean, this assumed everyone who supports trump will vote in the primary. This isn't true, he will have supporters not in the primary that would vote in the GE third party. I have no clue how many, but they exist.
BTW, I'm having a hard time seeing Trump as the nominee now. If you're the GOP and you think a Trump nom means the end of the WH bid, then you can't let him win. And I don't think Trump can grab 50% of the delegates on his own. Which means a brokered convention. And while at first the threat of a third party run was enough to hand it to Trump, he's crossed a winnable line so if he runs third party or he gets the nom you lose either way. And in the former, you are almost certainly hurt down ballot where maybe you are but you don't know with the latter.
So why would you let Trump be the nominee? You might as well see if he's bluffing. If he isn't, you'd lose if you didn't try to call it, anyway.
2 weeks ago I felt differently because I think the GOP could convince themselves they still had a chance with Trump. Maybe they still do but they have to be at least reevaluating that premise.
Basically, if the GOP doesn't believe they can win with Trump, then he can't become the nominee if they don't want him to be it. So it really is their call.
edit: If the party IS deciding, it's not Cruz. No way, no how. Rubio or Jeb! with Rubio being the heavy favorite. No fucking way is it Cruz.
Sanders said he won't run as an independent.1) I'm not a democrat
2) Sanders and Trump running as independents would kind of even out your concern as they both would pull votes away from the established parties
It'll depend on who they think his support will go to though, which is how I've always approached this. If they can be reasonably assured that Rubio will take it after they take Trump out then they will, but if they think it could be Cruz then they'd probably rather let Trump do his thing. Cruz would be worse for them than Trump.
Worse? Why do you think worse?
Worse? Why do you think worse?
New USA Today/Suffolk national poll came out
(12/2-12/6)
Herr Drumf 27
Cruz 17
Rubio 16
Carson 10
Jeb 4
Christie 2
But if Trump continues to win primaries and caucuses, what's there to stop him other than a heavy handed approach which will absolutely backfire?
But if Trump continues to win primaries and caucuses, what's there to stop him other than a heavy handed approach which will absolutely backfire?
Exactly. I think people are underestimating how much damage a brokered convention or the like could do.
Worse? Why do you think worse?
1) I'm not a democrat
2) Sanders and Trump running as independents would kind of even out your concern as they both would pull votes away from the established parties
It'll depend on who they think his support will go to though, which is how I've always approached this. If they can be reasonably assured that Rubio will take it after they take Trump out then they will, but if they think it could be Cruz then they'd probably rather let Trump do his thing. Cruz would be worse for them than Trump.
Brokered convention only works if Trump gets less than a majority of delegates. With the winner take all states sprinkled about the schedule I can't see how that's plausible.
I'm talking about at the convention, where they have to broker everything. Not at the primary level in terms of putting money/support.
In that scenario you negotiate. Getting Cruz would be very easy, IMO. You promise him that President Rubio will nominate him to the SCOTUS. This is great for the GOP because it gets Cruz out of congress and out of their hair plus he would be reliably conservative on the Court (fwiw, this is like the worst case scenario for me if the GOP wins the WH).
A very big poll is coming out at 6 PM in New Hampshire. Will be very interested in the results.
You promise him that President Rubio will nominate him to the SCOTUS. This is great for the GOP because it gets Cruz out of congress and out of their hair plus he would be reliably conservative on the Court (fwiw, this is like the worst case scenario for me if the GOP wins the WH).
Cruz isn't stupid enough to buy that, it'd be a hell of a fight to get him confirmed and the Republicans may not even have a majority in the Senate.
That's the interpretation somebody made to explain why he overperforms in internet polls.From Trump.
With the polling we've seen about how people feel regarding muslims, I'm beginning to seriously believe he has a bradley effect going on where people don't want to openly admit they support him but will do so with their vote. He could easily have another 5-10% of secret support.
That's the interpretation somebody made to explain why he overperforms in internet polls.
That's the interpretation somebody made to explain why he overperforms in internet polls.
If this happens I am moving to fucking England or something.
The problem is that he's also the kind of cynic that knows that putting up a True Establishment candidate up there to get crushed by Hills will only make his next bid in 2020 stronger.
Obv then he prolly factors demographic changes or whatever and balances it with the population's boredom with 12 years of dem rule before making a choice.
27%? Nah, he gets like 10 points higher in internet polls.He did pretty okay in that Suffolk phone poll that dropped today
Cruz isn't stupid enough to buy that, it'd be a hell of a fight to get him confirmed and the Republicans may not even have a majority in the Senate.
The problem is that he's also the kind of cynic that knows that putting up a True Establishment candidate up there to get crushed by Hills will only make his next bid in 2020 stronger.
Obv then he prolly factors demographic changes or whatever and balances it with the population's boredom with 12 years of dem rule before making a choice.
A Trump loss will be about Trump losing. A Cruz loss would be about the GOP losing.
Because while Trump is a total egomaniac and completely insane, Cruz is those same things only he's a total fucking asshole on top of it. The entire GOP establishment hates Ted Cruz with a passion that cannot be properly described. He's basically everything that everyone hates about the GOP from the last few years. He'd do all the same damage as Trump only the party wouldn't be able to distance themselves from it.
The reason the Democrats winning matters so much are for mostly two reasons.
1. International policy which needs no explanation.
2. Supreme Court. The GOP is going to nominate Cruz no matter what, IMO. And everyone else will also be like Cruz. And they will end the SCOTUS filibuster.
It is imperative that Hillary wins solely because of these 2 reasons. That is not to say there aren't other important reasons to look at from healthcare to tax policy to everything else because those are all important. But if Dems have 40 votes, they can block and the midterm elections will eventually "course correct" some of this as it always does. But you cannot undo war and you cannot undo SCOTUS justices.
These are things that will have lasting implications for 20-30 years and the state of the current GOP scares the shit out of me on these two topics.
It is imperative that Hillary frame the election is these terms. A vote for the GOP is a vote for war, a vote for Ted Cruz SCOTUS, and a throw in a vote for rich people getting tax breaks they don't need. that's it.
If they fear an eventual loss nationally with both of these candidates, I wonder how they feel about a possible win with either of the two. haha.
There is no scenario where Rubio wins the Presidency but the GOP doesn't have the Senate.
They'll nuke the filibuster completely in this scenario. It's a done deal.
I agree with you 110%, you'll never hear otherwise.
It's presuming that 1) Rubio wins, 2) The Republicans have a filibuster proof margin in the Senate, 3) That Rubio and the establishment keep the deal despite their distaste for Cruz. Those aren't what I'd call good odds. It'd be a bad deal to take.
Like I said, they are using this as an opportunity to shut him out once and for all. They thought he would crash by now, and he didn't, and instead he said another outrageously dumb thing. Now's the time to fight and destroy him if they want a hope to win.Why would Trump fall due to anti-Muslim comments? A sizable amount of people agree with him, inside and outside the republican primary process. He made blatantly racist comments about Mexicans and didn't take a dent, which should bigoted comments on Muslims hurt.
Bob Dole on whether he'd vote for Cruz: I might oversleep that dayOh, I know.
I just wanted to ramble about it, there.
I hate Ted Cruz more than any person in politics. I loathe the man. I'm a very non-violent person but if I ran into him, there's a non-zero chance I would just punch him in his smug face just because I can.
Oh, I know.
I just wanted to ramble about it, there.
I hate Ted Cruz more than any person in politics. I loathe the man. I'm a very non-violent person but if I ran into him, there's a non-zero chance I would just punch him in his smug face just because I can.
Hrm, doesnt that describe Cruz far better than Rubs? If Rubio is True Tea, what would that make the monster?Rubio is Tea Party through and through. I agree if it was Jeb! but Rubio isn't really establishment. He's New Establishment.
Some are absolutely dumb and looking to get cheap page hits. Trump does business with Arabs. Who would've thought? My God...I counted. 16 Trump threads today.
A lot of them share a common theme, of courseSome are absolutely dumb and looking to get cheap page hits. Trump does business with Arabs. Who would've thought? My God...
A lot of them share a common theme, of course
Fuck Donald Trump [OT]
Hrm, doesnt that describe Cruz far better than Rubs? If Rubio is True Tea, what would that make the monster?
(Also plz quote my post tag too when doing that, mambs. I didnt even register that you had quoted me on a first pass)