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PoliGAF 2015-2016 |OT3| If someone named PhoenixDark leaves your party, call the cops

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D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Coriolanus said:
Dude, you are legit saying that bernie shoulda run independent because the dem side is actually having a conversation during a primary.

That's daniel b. level stuff. Heck, not even that, because at least that dude doesn't appear to despise the other side.
Click to expand...

Baffling, isn't it? For a side that wants to sell themselves as pragmatists...
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Bam Bam Baklava said:
What are you talking about sides? This is just one person with a view. Is this supposed to be your gotcha moment or something?
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No. Was this yours? Although I do think it's indicative of a general trend in PoliGAF to shit on Bernie without actually thinking about whether it's even plausible. Some of the stuff in here is nonsense, like B-Dubs' "bad campaign" shit. Sanders is a 74-year old Jewish socialist from Vermont who was an independent for most of his career and serial criticizer of the Democratic Party, yet is now seriously challenging crown princess Hillary Clinton in the early states; if he has a bad campaign I don't know what the fuck a good campaign looks like.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Crab said:
No. Was this yours? Although I do think it's indicative of a general trend in PoliGAF to shit on Bernie without actually thinking about whether it's even plausible. Some of the stuff in here is nonsense, like B-Dubs' "bad campaign" shit. Sanders is a 74-year old Jewish socialist from Vermont who was an independent for most of his career and serial criticizer of the Democratic Party, yet is now seriously challenging crown princess Hillary Clinton in the early states; if he has a bad campaign I don't know what the fuck a good campaign looks like.
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No one is doing that. Unlike Hillary no one has character assassinated Bernie or called into question his sincerity. Anything criticizing Bernie has been strictly on his politics and proposals.

We had this in the last debate thread pre-edit:

ThisGuy said:
What a lying bitch. She don't want universal health care.
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B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Crab said:
No. Was this yours? Although I do think it's indicative of a general trend in PoliGAF to shit on Bernie without actually thinking about whether it's even plausible. Some of the stuff in here is nonsense, like B-Dubs' "bad campaign" shit. Sanders is a 74-year old Jewish socialist from Vermont who was an independent for most of his career and serial criticizer of the Democratic Party, yet is now seriously challenging crown princess Hillary Clinton in the early states; if he has a bad campaign I don't know what the fuck a good campaign looks like.
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I already explained my reasoning, you just chose to ignore it. He may be challenging her in the early states, but those are the only states he's challenging her. He's challenging her nowhere else. His entire strategy, as explained by his campaign manager, is to turn out literally unprecedented numbers of white 20-somethings. That's not a good strategy and his numbers in the lilly white early states are masking the fact this campaign has real issues they are doing nothing to address. A good campaign would be looking to fix these deficiencies and wouldn't be looking to an unprecedented voter turnout to win, especially when he doesn't have the infrastructure to support that.

I'm not shitting on Bernie, I'm shitting on the morons running his campaign. They think he's the next Obama but are doing none of the things Obama's team did to ensure his victory.
 
A

Abinash117

Member
I don't care what anyone says Trump is going to double down with nearly every statement he made and policy and( continue to make more). Like the one post about Bernie not moderating if he wins the nom, it is going to be the same for Trump.
 
C

Coriolanus

Banned
There can only be one republican Turtle, and he even looks like one.

B-Dubs said:
I already explained my reasoning, you just chose to ignore it. He may be challenging her in the early states, but those are the only states he's challenging her. He's challenging her nowhere else. His entire strategy, as explained by his campaign manager, is to turn out literally unprecedented numbers of white 20-somethings. That's not a good strategy and his numbers in the lilly white early states are masking the fact this campaign has real issues they are doing nothing to address. A good campaign would be looking to fix these deficiencies and wouldn't be looking to an unprecedented voter turnout to win, especially when he doesn't have the infrastructure to support that.
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Would most likely spread itself too thin and lose the early states, facilitating the narrative of hills dominance. Sadly, given his resources and how long he's been a member of the democratic party, his choice really is to frontload his appeal. Either he'll get the REVOLUTIOOON he needs and gain the momentum needed to survive, or he'll crash and burn. Either way, no death of a thousand cuts.

Should always keep in mind that a standard approach is ill suited to a non-standard politicial. Plus a standard approach against a ridiculously stronger standard opponent? Son, you gon git rekt

Given the scenario he's dealing with? Soundest strategy he could go for (aside from not even bothering to run, obv)
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Basically what Coriolanus said. Sanders knows if he loses Iowa, all is lost. Iowa is very tight. Therefore, every single resource he has goes towards winning Iowa. There are no minority voters in Iowa. Therefore currently his campaigning efforts are not targeted towards minorities. That's obviously not a permanent plan, it doesn't take a genius to work out white people don't win South Carolina; but pretending his Iowa strategy is the same as his post-Iowa strategy is just stupid. He knows it isn't and you know it isn't.
 
R

Retromelon

Member
0tA491K.jpg


Fucking al gore
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Crab said:
Basically what Coriolanus said. Sanders knows if he loses Iowa, all is lost. Iowa is very tight. Therefore, every single resource he has goes towards winning Iowa. There are no minority voters in Iowa. Therefore currently his campaigning efforts are not targeted towards minorities. That's obviously not a permanent plan, it doesn't take a genius to work out white people don't win South Carolina; but pretending his Iowa strategy is the same as his post-Iowa strategy is just stupid. He knows it isn't and you know it isn't.
Click to expand...

The problem is that he's also not looking far enough ahead. If he wins Iowa and remains unable to change the dynamics of the race then he's still royally fucked. Winning Iowa is half the battle and so far his team has not given anyone any reason to believe they can fight that second half. His anti-establishment message isn't exactly resonating with the african-american community and he'll have 25 days to find a way to close that gap. You can't reach an entire community overnight, he needs to have been doing this already. If that means attacking Hillary he should be doing that right now.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
B-Dubs said:
The problem is that he's also not looking far enough ahead. If he wins Iowa and remains unable to change the dynamics of the race then he's still royally fucked. Winning Iowa is half the battle and so far his team has not given anyone any reason to believe they can fight that second half. His anti-establishment message isn't exactly resonating with the african-american community and he'll have 25 days to find a way to close that gap. You can't reach an entire community overnight, he needs to have been doing this already.
Click to expand...

Obama did it overnight but you could argue he is a special case. He also had parts of the establishment & Ted Kennedy as vouchers.

Bernie has none of that. Ironically like Cruz and Trump
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
B-Dubs said:
The problem is that he's also not looking far enough ahead. If he wins Iowa and remains unable to change the dynamics of the race then he's still royally fucked. Winning Iowa is half the battle and so far his team has not given anyone any reason to believe they can fight that second half. His anti-establishment message isn't exactly resonating with the african-american community and he'll have 25 days to find a way to close that gap. You can't reach an entire community overnight, he needs to have been doing this already. If that means attacking Hillary he should be doing that right now.
Click to expand...

You literally cannot do both these things at the same time, though. Black voters are typically much more communitarian than white ones. You are unlikely to increase your share of the black vote through attack ads, you do it by hitting up the HBCUs, the barber shops, and the black churches. You can't do that if you're in Iowa hitting the stumps; Bernie doesn't have the magical power to be in two places at once. Like, he's not stupid, his campaign obviously knows they're not doing so well with black voters; the fact they're not making efforts indicates they can't rather than that they won't and is not at all indicative of a bad campaign.

This is what I mean, you can work out the above with some basic common sense; which you never seem to deploy when considering Sanders.
 
C

Coriolanus

Banned
B-Dubs said:
The problem is that he's also not looking far enough ahead. If he wins Iowa and remains unable to change the dynamics of the race then he's still royally fucked. Winning Iowa is half the battle and so far his team has not given anyone any reason to believe they can fight that second half. His anti-establishment message isn't exactly resonating with the african-american community and he'll have 25 days to find a way to close that gap. You can't reach an entire community overnight, he needs to have been doing this already. If that means attacking Hillary he should be doing that right now.
Click to expand...

The theory, since its generally accepted that his proposals for minorities are good, is that he cannot accrue minority support because they do not see him as capable of taking the presidency.

The bet is that once he manages these wins, that, along the media push that will acompany them, will be enough to convince enough voters amongst minorities that He's a Viable Candidate.

Given his resources, the gamble makes sense.

As for hills, you can either consider that He Ain't That Kinda Man or that he considers that that would cost him more votes than he'd win. Either way, will be left for earth-617
 
O

Ogrekiller

Member
Crab said:
You literally cannot do both these things at the same time, though. Black voters are typically much more communitarian than white ones. You are unlikely to increase your share of the black vote through attack ads, you do it by hitting up the HBCUs, the barber shops, and the black churches. You can't do that if you're in Iowa hitting the stumps; Bernie doesn't have the magical power to be in two places at once. Like, he's not stupid, his campaign obviously knows they're not doing so well with black voters; the fact they're not making efforts indicates they can't rather than that they won't and is not at all indicative of a bad campaign.

This is what I mean, you can work out the above with some basic common sense; which you never seem to deploy when considering Sanders.
Click to expand...

But you work all of that out, then the question is:

Why has he never done any of that stuff beforehand then?

And then when you go the common sense route, you have

a) He's relying on people to believe in him and magically flip over (AKA momentum)

or b) He was never really interested in winning in the first place

and if you subscribe to b) then you realize that he's flying by the seat of his pants and doesn't really have a plan B.

That's the pragmatic route.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
Coriolanus said:
The theory, since its generally accepted that his proposals for minorities are good, is that he cannot accrue minority support because they do not see him as capable of taking the presidency.

The bet is that once he manages these wins, that, along the media push that will acompany them, will be enough to convince enough voters amongst minorities that He's a Viable Candidate.

Given his resources, the gamble makes sense.

As for hills, you can either consider that He Ain't That Kinda Man or that he considers that that would cost him more votes than he'd win. Either way, will be left for earth-617
Click to expand...

The theory is bunk.

That only worked for Obama in '08, since black voters assumed he wouldn't win because white voters wouldn't actually turn out for him due to race issues.

Obama ended up winning Iowa, one of the whitest states in the union, and suddenly that particular fear as well as the Bradley Effect trope was put to bed overnight.

Bernie sanders doesn't have a potential issue with white voters holding him back. His issue is that the Clintons have built up so much goodwill since 1992 that there's nothing he can do there.

His gamble makes no sense, and will not pay off.
 
J

Jack Remington

Banned
National Review thinks that if Loretta Lynch declines to indict Hillary, it will lead to mass public outrage and, I dunno, riots in the streets or something.

It's kind of cute. Republican bloggers will write a lot of angry op-eds about how the rule of law is dead, and that will be that.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
So, something interesting that I thought of today. The Clinton attack machine is vicious. Probably too mean in a primary, as we saw in 2008.

But what does that look like on a national level? Is she just holding back until the nomination when she lets everything run wild? I'm sort of fascinated to see what that looks like.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
We still have about a third of the time til Iowa to go, so to speak - 27% of people who voted in 2008 only made their definite decision in the immediate week before the caucus. That's not a result prediction, I'm just saying that the only polls which matter numbers-wise are those really from the last week. All polls tell us about now is trajectory.
 
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