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PoliGAF 2015-2016 |OT3| If someone named PhoenixDark leaves your party, call the cops

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D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Black Republican said:
it was 7 before on the main stage, wonder if anyone will get cut again?
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Top 6 nationally, top 5 in either Iowa or New Hampshire. Currently the top 6 nationally are Trump, Cruz, Rubio, Carson, Bush, Christie; top 5 in Iowa are Trump, Cruz, Rubio, Carson, Bush; top 5 in NH are Trump, Kasich, Cruz, Rubio, Bush, Christie. Christie has a big lead over the 6th place Rand Paul in NH, so he's not going anywhere; I don't see any changes so I expect it to be the same 7. The only *possible* change is Rand Paul knocking Bush out for 5th in Iowa, they're pretty close, so it could actually go up to 8 as Bush is assured from national status anyway.
 
B

Black Republican

Member
Makai said:
If Kasich beats Christie in national polling, Christie will get cut. Otherwise, it will be the same lineup as last time.

EDIT: Oh shit, Rand has a chance after that Iowa poll.
Click to expand...

depends, what 5 polls fox news usually average?

national (atleast)
Fox,WSJ/NBC,Monmouth,Cnn/Abc?

not sure which state polls they uses for Iowa/NH
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Black Republican said:
depends, what 5 polls fox news usually average?

national (atleast)
Fox,WSJ/NBC,Monmouth,Cnn/Abc?

not sure which state polls they uses for Iowa/NH
Click to expand...

I think they're using the other networks' polls (plus their own), so Fox/Anderson&Shaw, NBC/WSJ/Marist, CNN/ORC, CBS/YouGOV, ABC/Langer.
 
B

Bowdz

Member
Black Republican said:
smh

Fox News Iowa

Trump 34(+11)
Cruz 23(-4)
Rubio 12(-3)
Carson 7(-2)
Paul 6(+1)
Bush 4
Christie 4

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2016/01/22/fox-news-poll-iowa-presidential-primary/

Fox NH
Trump 31(-2)
Cruz 14(+2)
Rubio 13(-2)
Kasich 9 (+2)
Bush 7
Christie 7

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/int...news-poll-new-hampshire-presidential-primary/
Click to expand...

We're not gonna take it. NO! We ain't gonna take it! We're not gonna take it, ANYMORE!!!!!!

MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! TRUMP S A! TRUMP S A!
 
E

Euron

Member
Black Republican said:
smh

Fox News Iowa

Trump 34(+11)
Cruz 23(-4)
Rubio 12(-3)
Carson 7(-2)
Paul 6(+1)
Bush 4
Christie 4

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2016/01/22/fox-news-poll-iowa-presidential-primary/

Fox NH
Trump 31(-2)
Cruz 14(+2)
Rubio 13(-2)
Kasich 9 (+2)
Bush 7
Christie 7

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/int...news-poll-new-hampshire-presidential-primary/
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Jeb is tied with Chris fucking Christie. Just let that sink in. For a party that claims to be conservative in its spending they blew $100 Million on one of the most pathetic candidates of all time and refuse to admit defeat and put what they have left behind one candidate who actually has a shot.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Does anyone else see Kasich pulling off a shocker after NH to become the leading "moderate" candidate?
 
D

Drakeon

Member
Crab said:
Does anyone else see Kasich pulling off a shocker after NH to become the leading "moderate" candidate?
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I mean, no, not unless Rubio, Bush and Christie all drop out. I think they continue to cannibalize their votes and none of them gain much traction because of it. Although if Christie doesn't do well, I bet he drops out after NH.
 
U

User 406

Banned
michael-scott-no.gif
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Makai said:
I've thought this since November.
Click to expand...

I mean, there's literally no attack ads against him and by current trajectory he'll be the top placed moderate in New Hampshire. You need to break a 10% margin to get delegates, so it's also at least reasonably possible he could be the *only* placed moderate in New Hampshire. He has high approval ratings from Republicans and seems to have low voting intention only because he also he has a low profile. It's like the perfect combination to submarine up.

It's also scary because Kasich could beat Clinton in an election, IMO.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
YouGOV has Sanders 47-Clinton 46 in Iowa [Sanders +6 over the last poll], Sanders 57-Clinton 38 in New Hampshire [Sanders +12 over the last poll], Clinton 60-Sanders 38 in South Carolina [Sanders +14 over the last poll].

EDIT: ugh they cheaped out on the sample sizes, though. Big margin of error, so tells us basically nothing about Iowa. At least the NH and SC movements exceeded the MoE, so positive signs there.
 
1

120v

Member
Euron said:
Jeb is tied with Chris fucking Christie. Just let that sink in. For a party that claims to be conservative in its spending they blew $100 Million on one of the most pathetic candidates of all time and refuse to admit defeat and put what they have left behind one candidate who actually has a shot.
Click to expand...

to play devil's advocate i think (assuming cruz and trump storm IA, NH and SC) bush will drop out if he finishes behind as much as polls suggest. along with the other 'establishment' candidates. i think the reality of rubio being their only shot is realized but they're holding out for votes to actually be cast

i'm surprised though PACs seemed largely ineffectual this cycle so far. after 2012 i assumed any crappy candidate could eke out a nomination with enough money to steamroll
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
120v said:
to play devil's advocate i think (assuming cruz and trump storm IA, NH and SC) bush will drop out if he finishes behind as much as polls suggest. along with the other 'establishment' candidates. i think the reality of rubio being their only shot is realized but they're holding out for when votes are actually cast

i'm surprised though PACs seemed largely ineffectual this cycle so far. after 2012 i assumed any crappy candidate could eke out a nomination with enough money to steamroll
Click to expand...

I don't think they'd be ineffectual normally, but Trump is a media mastermind. If he thinks he's getting less attention he deserves, he just says or does something outrageous and it dominates the media cycle for the next week. Nobody cares about some attack ad about Rubio's boots when Trump is talking about how he can shoot people. He's starved the entire GOP side of oxygen.
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
Crab said:
YouGOV has Sanders 47-Clinton 46 in Iowa [Sanders +6 over the last poll], Sanders 57-Clinton 38 in New Hampshire [Sanders +12 over the last poll], Clinton 60-Sanders 38 in South Carolina [Sanders +14 over the last poll].

EDIT: ugh they cheaped out on the sample sizes, though. Big margin of error, so tells us basically nothing about Iowa. At least the NH and SC movements exceeded the MoE, so positive signs there.
Click to expand...
South Carolina is pretty much white people moving to Sanders. He gained 2% with blacks.

And the margin of error in Iowa is +/-8 lol
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
NYCmetsfan said:
South Carolina is pretty much white people moving to Sanders. He gained 2% with blacks.

And the margin of error in Iowa is +/-8 lol
Click to expand...

60-38 wouldn't actually be a bad SC margin if it happened; it's a lot more positive than I was expecting. If he could get it inside 55-40, then we're talking some real good shit, that would mean the national race would be competitive. That's like going from losing black voters to 25-75 to losing them 35-65; I think that's doable.

But yes, it's so frustrating that Iowa polling right now is so all over the place and imprecise. I need my Selzer damnit. :( Why would you even bother commissioning a poll with a sample that small? What's the point in being so cheap? Just give them the damn money to make it accurate. :(

EDIT: Man, did Clinton's healthcare attacks backfire. that's multiple polls now having gone from showing her leading on healthcare competency easily to suddenly being neck and neck. Her campaign staff are dumb.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Makai said:
It might after he spends his billion and Wall Street money flocks to him.
Click to expand...

Jeb has spent almost $100 million.

I don't care how much money you spend--if the candidate isn't appealing (which Bloomberg isn't), it won't matter.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Woah, YouGOV changed their methodology and I wasn't looking.

The YouGov/CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker is based on surveys of registered voters who had previously voted in primaries in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.
Click to expand...

That's incredible numbers, then! Also, in the O'Malley breakdowns, his support splits 2-1 in favour of Sanders. Could be critical.
 
I

Iolo

Member
Crab said:
Woah, YouGOV changed their methodology and I wasn't looking.



That's incredible numbers, then! Also, in the O'Malley breakdowns, his support splits 2-1 in favour of Sanders. Could be critical.
Click to expand...

Joke's on them then, Iowa doesn't have a primary.
 
P

Pryce

Member
Crab said:
YouGOV has Sanders 47-Clinton 46 in Iowa [Sanders +6 over the last poll], Sanders 57-Clinton 38 in New Hampshire [Sanders +12 over the last poll], Clinton 60-Sanders 38 in South Carolina [Sanders +14 over the last poll].

EDIT: ugh they cheaped out on the sample sizes, though. Big margin of error, so tells us basically nothing about Iowa. At least the NH and SC movements exceeded the MoE, so positive signs there.
Click to expand...

I'm no poll expert but those SC numbers are a lot better.

He won't win, and even if it is just white people going over to Sanders, hopefully it won't be an utter blood bath like we all thought.
 
D

dramatis

Member
Retromelon said:
i shoveled snow for an hour and a half without breaks, come back, thirsty as young marco giving a SOTU rebuttal, and my sodas froze

fuck ted cruz
Click to expand...
Why you so bad

I was lucky in that the wind blew towards opposite side of the street

Two feet of snow? lmao All but like less than 1 inch was blown off my front steps
 
M

Mrs. Manky

Banned
I know you guys don't think much of SA, but they're going to be specifically calling on the left to refuse to vote for Hillary. They are already doing it. They'll be reaching out to BLM to implore them to do the same thing. They'll be asking their connections in YGB to abstain as well.
Click to expand...

IMHO, from what I've seen of BLM and supporters of the movement, they are not inclined to follow the orders of any white people who want to tell them what to do. The black people who have chosen Sanders, for example (like Killer Mike and Nina Turner) have pretty much done so of their own free will and with no known SAs or whatever behind them.

So, if BLM people are not voting for Hillary Clinton, it'll be because she failed, in their opinion, to earn their vote. And not because some SA people were telling or imploring them to do so. Same for Bernie Sanders.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Arriving Sunday morning at a Clinton field office in this southeastern Iowa city, Castro could barely make it across the room before the topic came up — courtesy of a Clinton volunteer who admiringly greeted him as "Mr. Vice President." Speaking with reporters after making his pitch for Clinton, Castro did not say anything new about the vice presidential speculation — though it was not for a lack of prodding.
Click to expand...

http://www.texastribune.org/2016/01/24/iowa-castro-waves-vp-speculation-again/
 
T

Third Strike

Member
I know a lot of people harp on Castro for being inexperienced, but I think he does make the Democratic ticket more exciting than a Clinton-Kaine ticket. It's also symbolic, especially with Trump's rhetoric against Mexican immigrants.
 
C

Cesare Borgia

Banned
I thought Jeb did decent in the last debate; it was certainly an improvement and he was forceful enough to receive more speaking time than previously. The fact that most of his donors haven't abandoned him highlights how loyal they are to the family. But perhaps moreso should tell you something about Rubio. Normally donors would jump at the chance to repent and join a "rising" candidate's circle; especially right before the primaries start, when they could make a difference financially.

Many of Bush's donors knew about that WaPo piece's information quite awhile ago, and they know some things that Jeb had planned on using to destroy Rubio. Given the way the Bushes work I wouldn't be stunned if Jeb's team leaks something after NH or SC/NV. The reality is that Trump, anti-establishment sentiment, and Jeb being a terrible candidate ruined his run. But I get the impression they're going to blame Rubio and punish him for disloyalty. Rubio running was perhaps the first sign that Jeb was not inevitable. Romney had backed out, the money was pouring in, and yet bucked it Rubio still ran. Sure he'll pick up some Bush donors after Jeb drops out, but I really think the knives are out here.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Manmademan said:
i was saying he likely had it months ago, and people were saying I was crazy
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I wouldn't have said that's crazy, but against a more appealing Republican ticket (think Kasich-Haley) there would be much more pressure to pick someone like Kaine who's a far more tested politician than Castro is.

But now that Trump is looking and more and more like the reality, who cares.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Trump has a >55% chance of winning Iowa according to 538:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/iowa-republican/#polls-only

(Since "polls-only" understates his support if party support matters at all with everyone coming out against Cruz).

Basically, if Trump and Hillary win Iowa, the primary is over, but if Cruz and Sanders win, both races are still open, right?

Makai said:
You've seen his tweets, right?
Click to expand...

Yeah, but her tweets are even more out there.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Trump has a >55% chance of winning Iowa according to 538:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/iowa-republican/#polls-only

(Since "polls-only" understates his support if party support matters at all with everyone coming out against Cruz).

Basically, if Trump and Hillary win Iowa, the primary is over, but if Cruz and Sanders win, both races are still open, right?



Yeah, but her tweets are even more out there.
Click to expand...

Trump follows with a win in NH+SC+NV and Clinton in NV+SC then yes.

Mathematically in April for them both.
 
D

Daniel B·

Banned
chiym1992 said:
Are you seriously saying you think Bernie would be able to pull off what FDR did as one of America's most capable and popular president? Present day Americans would rather vote for an atheist than a self-proclaimed socialist. Say what you will about what that tells about the American people, but it's another thing to setting yourself for disappointment even if he were to win.
Click to expand...

Yeah, nothing unprecedented is going on here; 1/23/16 Marches for Bernie in Boston, MA, Buffalo, NY, Chicago, Trade Center and Chicago again (YT vid links):





And when you compare Bernie to FDR, are you seriously saying he doesn't have the potential to achieve just as much?

f80kr2l.gif
 
M

Manmademan

Member
Aaron Strife said:
I wouldn't have said that's crazy, but against a more appealing Republican ticket (think Kasich-Haley) there would be much more pressure to pick someone like Kaine who's a far more tested politician than Castro is.

But now that Trump is looking and more and more like the reality, who cares.
Click to expand...

Kasich-Haley isn't any more appealing than Romney/Ryan. No matter who the republicans ran, they run into a huge problem with demographic shifts (latinos are ABSOLUTELY gone this round) and the electoral college, especially since it is increasingly likely that Florida is off the table due to puerto rican immigration shifting demographics there in favor of the democrats.

Given the current field, hillary was running away with it in the general no matter who her opponent is- unless she intentionally self destructs by doing something phenomenally stupid- and i mean "John Edwards getting caught with a pregnant mistress" stupid.

With that in mind, the democrats need to look at 2024- and unfortunately their field is pretty old. They need someone young that will be ready and able to run, and a castro with 8 years experience in the white house as VP fits that bill with no "dirt" from questionable senate votes or gubernatorial decisions etc. that could drag him down in the general. VP gives the *appearance* of having all the experience in the world with none of the exposure.
 
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